Hi All,

I've been wondering if there is any good indicators or some kind of measurement/index that gives an indication of how volatile the price of a commodity/stock/currency is based on some period of time other than basic statistical calculations.

I came across things like Sharpe ratio and the more intuitive Modigliani–Modigliani measure which look at the reward-to-variability ratio, which I think might be interesting to look at for Bitcoin.

I'm fairly ignorant of such financial indicators and formulae - so I guess I'm interested in whether anyone out there is looking at such things and whether they are appropriate in regards to Bitcoin.

Thanks in advance for any replies.

My gut feeling is that we are going to have to test $50 again. For me, that is only point of resistance that has really shown genuine strength under heavy selling pressure. But who knows what might happen this time...

This made me crack up ...

SWISS FRANC TRADER: can u put 6m swiss libor in low pls?...
PRIMARY SUBMITTER: Whats it worth
SWSISS FRANC TRADER: ive got some sushi rolls from yesterday?...
PRIMARY SUBMITTER: ok low 6m, just for u
SWISS FRANC TRADER: wooooooohooooooo. . . thatd be awesome

Oh wait, that's some of the guys involved in the LIBOR scandal. Sad to think that the BTC-E troll box isn't that far removed from the big financial markets...

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/everything-is-rigged-the-biggest-financial-scandal-yet-20130425src=longreads&page=2#ixzz2RfO5NPnL

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/02/06/libor-scandal-outrageous-traders-exchanges_n_2630945.html

*yawn*

If there is anything that working in the technology industry has taught me it's that successful technologies are rarely without huge design flaws or weaknesses. In fact, those flaws and weakness often foster an eco-system of early adopters and businesses that develop to services and products to "fix" things and this in itself has a powerful viral/network effect. For example, look at the Bitcoin services offered to merchants.

Don't get me wrong Bitcoin's future is far from certain and has a high chance of failure, but don't under-estimate the ingenuity of people to work around the problems we see today, especially when motivated by sizeable financial opportunities that simply don't exist in the alternatives right now.

*yawn*

I can't believe this nonsense getting so much attention on here and over at Reddit. Clearly a slow news day in the world of Bitcoin.

I have to say the dearth of interesting stories and speculation discussion over the last few days is making me rather bearish.

Grrr.

Yep, it's certainly planned, however not until they secure their next round of funding.

My friend is a founder of a startup called TradeHero (http://www.tradehero.mobi/)

I've recently suggested they should find a place for Bitcoins in their eco-system.

I feel a change in the wind, but I have to say I'm still very dubious that things have shaken out this quickly. I'm still bearish overall.

That said, I didn't expect my buy orders that were just above $50 to kick till the end of the week if this was a long slide down - so could this really be a big correction rather than a crash? If $50 was the bottom then I'll be a bit gutted that I didn't buy more (I was expecting $40 or lower).

Stating the obvious I think we can expect more volatility either way. Hold on to your hats.

It's not the only thread where he has posted this. I think he is really trying to mindfuck you guys now.

You are calling a low of $50? *suspicious look*

It most certainly is finely balanced at the moment and I wouldn't have been surprised by a steady rise in price today.

However if the sentiment in this forum is of any relevance I have found most of the bearish view to be more reasoned, more consistent, more analytical and more likely based on history than the bulls even if they seem to be equal in number. Hence I'm leaning that way as well.

Alternatively, they might think the "get rich quick" opportunity has passed and not bother investing at all.

One question is out of all those new accounts appearing on Gox which were/are planning on going long and which were/are looking for a quick buck?

Another is out of all the EAs with a decent amount of coins, how many believe that they could sell now and buy back in sub 40 or less?

Personally I think the longer the price hovers at $100, the greater chance of a long slide down until the Bitcoin economy has something cheer about other than speculation. Looking at the 3 day chart on Bitcoinity it might already have begun...

Similar, starting at $50 - though I might do a bit of tweaking.

I think I might start seeing them filled from the end of this week onwards, but very hard to estimate time frames at the moment.

I thought last weekend we'd held relatively steady until the end of last weekend and then things began to shoot up early.

But I agree, it wasn't normal. Tomorrow is going to be interesting for sure though.

The chumps of the Facebook story are now investors in Bitcoin. Whoopie f***ing doo. The kind of people whose heads will be turned by this story won't be enough to prop-up Bitcoin's value. For me its a massive black mark against Bitcoin and another indication of speculation circus we're currently living through.

I think we'll all be a lot wiser as Monday dawns across the world. This time last week though the rocket had already started to fire upwards though. I won't read too much into that however.

I have to say I am surprised just how many bulls out there are still convinced we'll be on our way back to the moon shortly.

For me the ideal scenario for Bitcoin is a slow gentle decline in price which gives all those Bitcoin startups a chance to grab center stage and start making headlines for the right reasons. Unfortunately I suspect things are going to be far more chaotic.

I hope you are right, I really had to resist the temptation not to buy over the last couple of days.

Indeed. I know far more about the technorati who designed computers, the web and digital cryptography than the shady world of politicians and bankers who run the current financial system.