Variance evens out when the hashrate isn't increasing exponentially. This isnt the case right now with rapidly rising difficulty.
Hashrate is increasing across the board. So variance will even out over time. Unless you have managed to find a pool that is not increasing its hash rate? Most pools are increasing their rate so variance will even out. Variance will even out for the pool, but not for you unless you increase your hashrate. So if you invest in a miner and hope to get return, the first couple of weeks are most important for you. If you lose due to a small pool's variance you may never recover, unless you keep buying more miners. |
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Don't forget it works both ways.
You are just as likely to find MORE blocks than expected when you are in a smaller, high variance pool as you are to find fewer blocks.
yeah I know. But usually those miners who want to gamble just go to a gambling site. I mean, if you invest thousands in mining hardware, you've already taken a considerable risk, thinking that you can gauge your understanding of the mining hardware market to have a positive expectation in this game. Then if you are rational, you don't just go and stake your profit on a 0-expectation high-variance game. |
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Human beings have free will and can therefore choose a small or medium sized pool if they like.
NO ONE is FORCED to use a big pool, they just chose to use a big pool. A VERY different thing.
if you read my (fairly short) post you'll see that I don't speak about forcing someone to do something, but of the current increasing economic advantage of using bigger pools. Now back to your regularly scheduled Rant.
Sam
you seem to be taking me for someone else. |
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subj. Fast-increasing difficulty makes it impossible to recover
what you lose due to variance in time between blocks when mining on a smaller pool.
So one is forced to choose a larger pool (=small variance) or straight PPS; good prices on PPS are also
offered only by larger pools, for the very same reason.
ASIC producers are as much interested in network security as everyone else using BTC, so
they need to make explicit support for P2Pool, may be invest
in making the software easy to use as well.
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simple question:
what is going to be the incentive to use this system for a person (not a merchant) as
opposed to using cash?
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I haven't been following for a while so not sure if this has been discussed, anyway:
we need some plan for those 4x extra chips that HF promissed as a miner protection
plan. These chips have to be sent somewhere for assembly and hosting.
In case you don't know: HF is promising extra chips (up to 4 times the amount you get in your miners)
to the customers who can't make ROI on the original purchase.
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some comments -
registration is a bit annoying: too strong requirements for passwords,
obligatory specification of the payout address
in the game: lobby chat should be accessible from the game.
the small side game is distracting: it's unclear which buttons are about which game
the text in the chat window jerks up and down while there are no new messages appearing
(might be related to font sizes)
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Selling 60GH BFL single.
Ships from EU.
Can ship international at your cost.
Included is a high-end PSU.
Escrow accepted (but please choose a reputable one).
edit: sold
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my options dont work at all
I've set it to pay out every 1 btc instead and set the nmc address but everything remains the same despite signature passing
The payout change is not yet implemented, but the NMC payouts are. Are the saved options showing when you return to the options page? doesn't work for me either. the saved options are showing when I come back, but I don't get NMC payouts. |
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just curious: why is eligius including 1 satoshi payouts to 18d3HV2bm94UyY4a9DrPfoZ17sXuiDQq2B in many of its blocks, like here? isn't it "bad" under new bloat rules? |
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a ces prix-la, je le vendrais dans un mois
Et donc, tu en voudrais combien ? 22 BTC |
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a ces prix-la, je le vendrais dans un mois
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j'ai un BFL Single 60GH/s a vendre.
Il fait bien ses 60GH/s
faites vos propositions si vous êtes intéressés
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here comes 2 more BTC
6b686a2628d77691c3b0ccdbe9ee6b2985018a505c312fa5150cdfe0c9f29434
I hope you don't mind me making multiple transactions. Of course for payouts
all 3 can be pooled together (totalling 8.4) with any of the inputs used for dividends.
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I simulated the win ratio progression, where you try to win back your loses by leaving the bet constant and increasing the amount you win, verses a regular martingale versus a single bet.
....
mean number of bet to win
....
when calculating various characterstics of the betting strategies, you have to be careful to check whether they are well-defined. Specifically, expectations of some of the random variables do not exist (= are infinite), and of course the same holds of the variance. For example, expected number of bets to win, with 0 house edge is \sum_{i=1}^\infty i*P(lost i-1 times)*P(won on i'th time) = \sum_{i=1}^\infty i*1/i*1/(i+1) = \sum_{i=1}^\infty 1/(i+1) = infinity which does not mean that on average you have to wait infinitely long to win. It just means that the concept of mathematical expectation is not useful for this analysis, and so emprical expectation (mean time to win) may be very misleading. |
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for me the longest run so far was up to 119x. I also won 198x once but not in a single
streak, I had to make a break to win back some.
hex wrote a bot that implemented the strategy. It worked for a while, winning one run at something like 4806x. But it looks like it busted after I stopped watching, with a run that didn't win after getting up over 5000x and spending all available funds. heh. I guess the bot must have been running for a while. |
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You always bet the same amount, but you change the multiplier.
Say you bet 1btc on 2x.
If you lose, bet 1btc on 3x.
if lose, 1btc of 4x, and so on.
If win, you go back to 2x.
(The amount you bet never changes.)
Each time you win, you balance is 1 btc up from your previous win.
I tried this for myself. The first time I won on 3x, then on 46x, and then on 38x. On the 3rd trial I started out betting 0.0102 on 2x, then 0.0103 on 3x, etc. up to 0.0138 on 38x. yep, that's a fun variation. Another is to replace the first 2x bet with some wild bet like 100x. for me the longest run so far was up to 119x. I also won 198x once but not in a single streak, I had to make a break to win back some. |
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Hot wallet usually never goes above 100 BTC? I don't know the exact amount. Even if someone deposited 200 BTC, most if it is immediately sent to the cold wallet.
100 you can withdraw sometimes. I did it once, though the money came from my own deposit half an hour earlier. |
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I added 1.4 BTC
817d79a472f2516b900f6394c82f4b6d2cbb8d906d4b1439e29cb3bc07ce6283
so my total participation is 6.4 now
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