The crisis document claims they've lose 742,400 out of 744,400 coins and that they only have 2000 coins left.
Here is my prediction.
The theft related to the transaction malleability was small and probably only 5-20% of their actual funds - all it did was empty their hot wallet and force them to try to redeem their cold wallet. Imo, there is no chance that they lost 99.9% of their bitcoin from that theft, since it would have equated to 500-600 coins per day since mtgox's inception; or $50,000 a day in the long, sustained stable period of a average price of $100 usd/btc.
Upon trying to redeem their huge cold wallets with around 80% of the customer's 774,000 coins; Mark discovered that the private keys could not be recovered due to some bug in his own custom coded software. Ever since he's been stalling for time, trying to recover the keys to the private storage. The document is in fact real, and mark would rather cry theft than admit that he accidentally lost the keys to 772,000 coins. The document was being circulated to potential investors so that Mtgox could be bought and no one would ever know the true depth of Mark's incompetence.
The document was leaked by someone involved in the potential acquisition and that immediately destroyed some interest in the acquisition.
I still believe that Mtgox may be acquired or some outside experts may be brought in to recover the private keys.
The private keys may not be recoverable, and 600,000-700,000 coins are lost forever.
I reckon this could be close to the truth too.
There is no way that 750,000 coins could have been stolen. So Krapeles MUST be lying about that. He did say himself the document was 'legit MORE OR LESS' AND he said that it was NOT produced by Gox. So what does that mean? It means that it is a slightly dodgy document probably made by him to create some kind of effect in the public.
Why would he do that?
Maybe like you said - coz he is such a dumb ass that he forgot his password to the cold storage or something dumb like that. Or maybe an employee stole some funds? Maybe he is pretending funds got stolen so he can get out of some debt?
Or I think the most likely is that HE faked this document to crash the price of bitcoin so he can buy a load on the cheap to claw back what he's lost so far. That makes the most sense to me. Others in the Foundation found out and told him to resign. He thought "great - that will crash the BTC price some more".
Soon as the BTC price rises up to $700 or so, he will sell all his cheap coins and pay off his debts. Hopefully someone else will buy Gox from him and get it running properly.
I'm still totally stunned by the 750,000 BTC thing. HOW can it be true? HOW? He said 'more or less legit' so I am guessing that that part is just a massive LIE for some reason.
Any ideas why he would make that up?
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