As I've posted previously, a correction occurs every day at about 10 AM ET along with a huge lag. You can see them in the charts. When the exchanges figure out how to eliminate the DDOS threat, then the 10 AM drops will go away and the market can correct without outside help.
As I said, no DDoS..... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172944.0 |
|
|
|
|
I understand the seductive ethos behind the 'let's initially treat this like a commodity and pump to stratosphere so everyone after us can adopt as currency after we all become fabulously wealthy' mentality. It puts the cart before the horse. Valuation cannot be completely divorced from fundamentals for very long. Wanting to grow this 10x higher from the previous high valuation (2B+ to $20B+, as many have said) is not asking for success, but collapse. I guess this current rise has at least served to get more money flowing on the development side, which is good.
Everyone should be focused on reasonable and steady growth in price, adoption, implementation, and development of bitcoin and related services rather than being fixated on market price. The way Bitcoin is designed, however, means that until its worth $0 it will probably do this over and over and over.....
|
|
|
|
If anything, the DDoS mythology is the perfect excuse for any correction. |
|
|
|
Ironically if you go on reddit you'll find there are quite a few thread about today's cr... I mean 'correction' being 'engineered'. In one of the threads someone referred to this pastebin (although didn't link to it directly). While it's technically possible for an organised crime group to pull something of this nature, I sincerely doubt it was. - First, there was no DDOS. Someone sold big when it was at peak valuation, that triggered the drop. The exchanges went 502 for the same reason they went 502 when it dipped at 75: the guys building them have lag-heavy but solid backends, yet terrible, irresponsibly put together unscalable frontends. - Second, it hints at a conspiracy of loosely coupled individuals. Conspiracies of this kind aren't just hard to pull off - they are impossible to pull off. Someone always run their mouth eventually, or the 'open' nature of the announcements makes them backfire, or people never deliver on their 'promise' to participate, etc - Third, it's a whole load of bollocks bulls and trolls use to convince themselves the bitcoin cannot crash back to its Jan value because it's magically propelled by the potential to replace visa/mc. Sad thing is it seems to work - TC for example picked up on parts of that story. - exactly - exactly - exactly |
|
|
|
It only fell to 105, and shot back to 190 within minutes. People started buying the cheap coins like crazy. Does not this promise well for the future of BTC?
The 190 buys were tiny and mingled with sells for 140-150. I wouldn't say it popped back up. We always have small bot buys that are strangely higher than the majority of the much larger volume block sells (e.g., a stream of large block sells @ 150 and then a single teenth coin buy @ 190). It's strange.... |
|
|
|
"You can blame the DDoS for the lag but not the correction, which would've happened regardless. To blame this correction on the lag/DDoS is ridiculous because that would be saying that half the worth of a currency can be destroyed simply because people have a tough time logging into their forex account. If my equities platform lagged out I would be highly annoyed, but it would not destroy the stock market and force me to liquidate. This thing was headed down well before and independent of this lag.... If this was a DDoS attack, how can that cripple a multibillion dollar market this easily? If it can, then this market is overvalued because there is an extreme level of systematic risk. Is bitcoin (by way of its service providers) really so fragile that it gets cut in half in the blink of an eye simply because Gox lags out massively? That's even scarier than a natural panic sell-off and subsequent lag after a meteoric rise. On the NYSE, they have circuit breakers that halt trading intentionally because that quells panic (which is what I think this lag does, contrary to what most of you think). If anything, a DDoS would prevent the sell-off from being as deep and as fast as it would have been. If one can truly blame this on an attack, then bitcoin needs Wall Street help (I hate to say it). What's worse, a currency that has a deep and natural sell-off (like this, IMO) or a currency that can be completely wrecked by a hacker? I opt for natural sell-off.....because otherwise we need a very strong and experienced organization (e.g., Goldman et al.) to step in and provide a platform." https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172550.msg1796607#msg1796607How can micro transactions affect the price? I agree; they shouldn't. But somehow the bid/ask go right back up to the level of these tiny trades after a sell-off (sometimes a 5% -10% move based on nothing but a teenth of a coin). They didn't today because the sell-off was too large, but it happened in all 4 previous recent minor sell-offs. It makes no sense for the price to pop back up based on these minuscule trades. The bid/ask move up erratically and never follow the trades down in and orderly way. It's almost as if the bots are used to put green on the screen and stem the psychology of a panic sell. But that doesn't explain why the bid/ask shoot directly back up after 100's of coins have been dumped at much lower prices. |
|
|
|
so these micro transactions are actually effecting the over all price?
This always happens during a sell-off and at key support levels. You'll see lopsided trades (large blocks selling & tiny buys) that keep the bid/ask up long enough for the panic sell to stop.....then the price jumps right back up to the higher bid/ask (that is supported by minuscule trades). With this kind of volume, the bid/ask should be following the trades lower. But, how do these little transaction affect the price? Say I create a SELL order for 1000BTC at USD 200 The bot must make 50000 little orders to bypass my order and make the price down. Actually, whats the difference in making thousands of little transactions instead of one? They shouldn't affect the price at all......but the ask always stays inflated at the levels of these tiny trades when Gox lags . And we always bounce right back up to the high ask (well, except for today) even though there are hardly any trades at that level. It's strange. I don't understand why bid/ask don't follow the price lower..... |
|
|
|
"You can blame the DDoS for the lag but not the correction, which would've happened regardless. To blame this correction on the lag/DDoS is ridiculous because that would be saying that half the worth of a currency can be destroyed simply because people have a tough time logging into their forex account. If my equities platform lagged out I would be highly annoyed, but it would not destroy the stock market and force me to liquidate. This thing was headed down well before and independent of this lag.... If this was a DDoS attack, how can that cripple a multibillion dollar market this easily? If it can, then this market is overvalued because there is an extreme level of systematic risk. Is bitcoin (by way of its service providers) really so fragile that it gets cut in half in the blink of an eye simply because Gox lags out massively? That's even scarier than a natural panic sell-off and subsequent lag after a meteoric rise. On the NYSE, they have circuit breakers that halt trading intentionally because that quells panic (which is what I think this lag does, contrary to what most of you think). If anything, a DDoS would prevent the sell-off from being as deep and as fast as it would have been. If one can truly blame this on an attack, then bitcoin needs Wall Street help (I hate to say it). What's worse, a currency that has a deep and natural sell-off (like this, IMO) or a currency that can be completely wrecked by a hacker? I opt for natural sell-off.....because otherwise we need a very strong and experienced organization (e.g., Goldman et al.) to step in and provide a platform." https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172550.msg1796607#msg1796607 |
|
|
|
It doesn't. People just don't want to admit that investor confidence might be shook, and the whole meteoric rise in price was all a charade, so they are looking for a scapegoat.
If anything, MtGox lag slowed the freefall.
Exactly. The sell-off started well before the lag. Trading curbs and circuit breakers slow panic selling on the NYSE/Nasdaq......the lags stems panic on Mt Gox. Everyone is using this DDoS(??)/lag as an excuse for a correction. That said, there are no trading curbs in currencies. Forex does not have circuit breakers. What does BitPay do during an outage??? Should a currency (or quasi-currency) ever have a circuit breaker? Before this, the last 4 minor corrections were accompanied by the same lag (subsequent to a sell-off, not prior) and tiny bot trades on an inflated ask (e.g., 0.02 BTC trades well above the stream of sells) that kept the bid/ask high while most of the sales were actually occurring much much lower, which is why it always jumped back up so quickly after a sell-off even though the buys were minuscule compared to the much larger dump. The bot trades always appeared at key support levels, just as they did today. The panic selling would normally stop when lag increased to point that Gox was unresponsive. This time the selling was too intense. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172540https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170483A DDoS would only stem panic selling.....nobody should ever place market orders. Never ever.... |
|
|
|
bye lucif, this was great. Incredible. |
|
|
|
|
You can blame the DDoS for the lag but not the correction, which would've happened regardless. To blame this correction on the lag/DDoS is ridiculous because that would be saying that half the worth of a currency can be destroyed simply because people have a tough time logging into their forex account. If my equities platform lagged out I would be highly annoyed, but it would not destroy the stock market and force me to liquidate. This thing was headed down well before and independent of this lag....
If this was a DDoS attack, how can that cripple a multibillion dollar market this easily? If it can, then this market is overvalued because there is an extreme level of systematic risk. Is bitcoin (by way of its service providers) really so fragile that it gets cut in half in the blink of an eye simply because Gox lags out massively? That's even scarier than a natural panic sell-off and subsequent lag after a meteoric rise. On the NYSE, they have circuit breakers that halt trading intentionally because that quells panic (which is what I think this lag does, contrary to what most of you think). If anything, a DDoS would prevent the sell-off from being as deep and as fast as it would have been.
If one can truly blame this on an attack, then bitcoin needs Wall Street help (I hate to say it). What's worse, a currency that has a deep and natural sell-off (like this, IMO) or a currency that can be completely wrecked by a hacker? I opt for natural sell-off.....because otherwise we need a very strong and experienced organization (e.g., Goldman et al.) to step in and provide a platform.
|
|
|
|
No, of course not. The top three USD exchanges plus bitcointalk all going down at the same time was just a coinkidink  Yeah its called a DDoS of SELLERs. All the noobs trying for the exit at the same time. Xchanges can't scale fast enough. Bad for BTC. This poop of not being ready for scale hits us over and over. You'd think the guys at gox would have had plenty of time to triple or quadruple server capacity in the last few months, you know with $10k/day of revenue pouring in. that doesn't quite explain bitcointalk getting hit as well as the bitcoincharts.com 502 error. Those sites should've been hit just as hard by speculators during yesterday's rally as they are today. I've had 502 errors on Bitcoincharts.com every single day this week. This could just as easily be thousands of people going to all these sites because they can't get information. Gox lags out so they go to Bitstamp, etc etc. We know that Gox can't handle very much traffic because they lag out every single day. With BTC falling, you can rest assured every BTC owner is going en masse to all of these sites. |
|
|
|
It's the weekly exhaustion.
$260 was much too high, I was surprised when I woke up this morning to see it had risen that far. Panic buying I presume.
Back to $190 or thereabouts, possibly.
Then next week we go up again.
With that said, I didn't sell and I don't think this is even close to topping out.
It is the Gox lag. Price falls more the longer the lag time. When the lag clears up the price jumps up. I would write a trading bot to trade based upon lag time but they will be clearing that up in a day or so. No, the lag usually stems the fall. The last 4 small sell-offs stopped once the lag started. The price popped back up because Mt Gox sticks the bid/ask high during the lag and tiny bot fills go through on the inflated ask (e.g., a series of .02 BTC). That's why the price usually jumps right back up. I've watched this closely and posted data sets regarding this bizarre action. It happened today but the dump was too strong... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170483https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=172540 |
|
|
|
Today:
High:$266.00000
Low:$135.78600
funny i thought stocks would have turned first, not bitcoin
but a 50% crash in one day is the largest down move yet, so I think it's significant
We were just discussing this glorious bubble.... |
|
|
|
No, of course not. The top three USD exchanges plus bitcointalk all going down at the same time was just a coinkidink Even if this is a DDoS (or simply increased traffic due to panic), it is not the cause of this correction. This lag is actually stemming the panic selling, not creating it. If there wasn't a lag, the selling would bring this down much farther, much faster. Why do you think NYSE has a circuit breaker and trading curbs? |
|
|
|
|
This was headed down well before any lag.....Gox simply cannot handle sell-offs. It jams up their system. The lag helps stem the sell-off, in fact; it doesn't make it worse. It acts as a circuit breaker. The lag slows the sell-off and then gives them something to blame the correction on.
|
|
|
|
so these micro transactions are actually effecting the over all price?
This always happens during a sell-off and at key support levels. You'll see lopsided trades (large blocks selling & tiny buys) that keep the bid/ask up long enough for the panic sell to stop.....then the price jumps right back up to the higher bid/ask (that is supported by minuscule trades). With this kind of volume, the bid/ask should be following the trades lower. |
|
|
|
|
The usual small systematic bot fills (0.02 BTC) much higher than previous trades to keep the bid/ask up and stem the panic sell-off.
17:39:58 200.00000 2.0000
17:39:57 200.00000 1.7034
17:39:55 200.00000 0.9400
17:39:50 200.00000 0.1798
17:39:32 207.10440 0.0100
17:39:30 200.00000 0.2822
17:39:29 207.10440 0.0100
17:39:28 200.00000 155.5402
17:39:28 205.00000 5.0000
17:39:21 200.00000 5.2321
17:39:10 200.00000 9.9400
17:39:09 200.00000 778.5880
17:39:07 210.00000 0.0200
17:39:07 210.00000 0.0200
17:39:07 210.00000 0.0200
17:39:06 210.00000 0.0200
17:39:01 210.00000 0.0200
17:39:00 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:56 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:56 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:54 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:53 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:51 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:46 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:45 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:44 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:42 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:41 200.00000 35.0000
17:38:39 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:38 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:38 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:34 210.00000 0.0200
17:38:30 200.00000 12.0000
17:38:27 200.00000 74.8098
17:38:26 200.10000 0.0100
17:38:19 201.10000 0.0100
|
|
|
|
What's it have to do with Gox? Other exchanges are ~$200
Exactly. The lag is not causing this drop.....the drop is causing the lag. |
|
|
|
Let's say a hedge fund wants to buy 500K coins. Let's say an old BTC holder wants to sell 500K coins. These people don't know each other and decide to go on the open market, but chances are they won't make their trades at the same time. If one tries to unload 500K coins, what do you think would happend to the market? It would go down substantially, even if he/she did it in a controlled way....How about if someone tried to buy 500K in coins? Yes.....the market would go up erratically.
With dark pools, these two large players can find each other and transact without impacting the overall market as much. And they don't even have to reveal exactly how much they want to buy/sell.
I perfectly understand how it works, except : I don't think there is any "old BTC holder" that wants to sell 500K coin today. Old BTC holders are normal people that just happened to understand Bitcoin before me. If they survived up to now with so many coins they will only convert them when they have an immediate need for fiat. And they are not financial institutions that need to cash out 125 millions of dollars at the end of the month. I can't see what they could buy that they couldn't buy with 1000 or 5000 BTC. So I think the current exchange are good for them. Tradehill.com disagrees. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
