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2001  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Alert: chain fork caused by pre-0.8 clients dealing badly with large blocks on: March 12, 2013, 05:25:17 AM
http://blockchain.info/blocks/1363065731715

This page is a bit more interactive, you can see the red orphaned block "climbing" up the ladder, once it's near the top then we are close.
2002  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 12, 2013, 04:26:51 AM
You know what? The most thorough explanation I have found thus far is from here: http://buttcoin.org/bitcoin-has-forked-markets-are-fucked-massive-sell-off-ship-is-sinking ignore the title.



That buttcoin guy sounds mad. Is he mad?

I think he just tries to be a troll artist, he clearly knows what he talks about, and based on his understanding of bitcoin he would not believe in the kind of bullshit in his previous articles, assuming they are the same person.
2003  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 12, 2013, 04:11:12 AM
I held and loan, some suckers wanna borrow at 100% interest rate to short the market, hehe....
2004  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 12, 2013, 04:07:05 AM
You know what? The most thorough explanation I have found thus far is from here: http://buttcoin.org/bitcoin-has-forked-markets-are-fucked-massive-sell-off-ship-is-sinking ignore the title.

2005  Economy / Speculation / Re: An investor will like every bit of it.... on: March 12, 2013, 03:27:02 AM
Optimistic view: Problem noticed after code was released.  Action quickly taken to resolve problem and community made aware of it.

Pessimistic view: Problem causes speculators and investors to panic and dump bitcoin's price by 25% instantly.  Extreme volatility due to bug in software (not retaining full compatibility with previous releases is a bug, even if the new version is 'fixed' to remedy old problems thus causing new ones).

Either way it's not a welcome event.

An open and transparent system is only useful when shit happens.
2006  Economy / Speculation / Re: An investor will like every bit of it.... on: March 12, 2013, 03:21:05 AM
You know what would a bankster do when he finds out there is something seriously wrong with their new transaction system? He will try to hide it, he will try to do everything to make sure this information doesn't get outside, he doesn't want his stock price to drop, he doesn't want his investors to lose their confidence. But you can't always stop the information/rumors from spreading, your investors will somehow get to find out a bit about it here and there, this gives them uncertainty, and their greatest hatred is uncertainty.

Now let's face it, the investors are not idiots, no one is an idiot. We all know very well there never was and never will be a error-free system in the world, and a crisis is doomed to strike you sometime, the important thing is how the people behind the system handle it. and in the bitcoin world, the bug itself and the way people handle it is clearly visible, everything is transparent, everything is there for everyone to see, investors will get no uncertainty, they can figure out exactly how much their risk is in such a situation(which is not big, by the way), if they are willing to take things into their own hands and not succumb to panic. They will like a system like that, and a system like that will prevail in the end.

That's a bit optimistic of you. However, this is what an investor would like (if they bothered to understand it): even after just about the worst thing that could happen dud happen, the whole issue was resolved in a matter of hours, with no significant loss. Try that with any other currency, commodity or processing system!

I am actually trying to sound optimistic.  Wink OK, but rhetorics aside, if we really believe in an open transparent system is what we want in the end, we should learn to deal with things like that as they are inevitable, or let's all just hide in the grand nanny's basement forever.
2007  Economy / Speculation / An investor will like every bit of it.... on: March 12, 2013, 03:15:03 AM
You know what would a bankster do when he finds out there is something seriously wrong with their new transaction system? He will try to hide it, he will try to do everything to make sure this information doesn't get outside, he doesn't want his stock price to drop, he doesn't want his investors to lose their confidence. But you can't always stop the information/rumors from spreading, your investors will somehow get to find out a bit about it here and there, this gives them uncertainty, and their greatest hatred is uncertainty.

Now let's face it, the investors are not idiots, no one is an idiot. We all know very well there never was and never will be a error-free system in the world, and a crisis is doomed to strike you sometime, the important thing is how the people behind the system handle it. In the bitcoin world, the bug itself and the way people handle it is clearly visible, everything is transparent, everything is there for everyone to see, investors will get no uncertainty, they can figure out exactly how much their risk is in such a situation(which is not big, by the way), if they are willing to take things into their own hands and not succumb to panic. They will like a system like that, and a system like that will prevail in the end.
2008  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Big Short on: March 12, 2013, 01:51:40 AM
Edit... So.. whos Wing Chau right now on the bitcoin world? Mtgox? ("Between shots of sake he told Eisman that he would rather have $50 billion in crappy CDOs than none at all, as he was paid mainly on volume. He told Eisman that his main fear was that the U.S. economy would strengthen, and dissuade hedge funds from placing bigger bets against the subprime mortgage market. ")
As far as I know, there's no equivalent. There's no Bitcoin asset that's in such demand, with such low supply, that the volume has to come from shorts in order to exist. Of course, that might just be because, in the current buildout of the Bitcoin economy, options are about the most exotic financial instrument available.
are you interested on CDS I can try to convince Raphael to code something like that on BFX  Grin

What about just "normal" options? Wink
are on the list same like warrants, turbo warrants and swaps

Great, there will definitely be a market for that, MPEX is just insufferable sometimes.
2009  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Big Short on: March 12, 2013, 01:45:55 AM
Edit... So.. whos Wing Chau right now on the bitcoin world? Mtgox? ("Between shots of sake he told Eisman that he would rather have $50 billion in crappy CDOs than none at all, as he was paid mainly on volume. He told Eisman that his main fear was that the U.S. economy would strengthen, and dissuade hedge funds from placing bigger bets against the subprime mortgage market. ")
As far as I know, there's no equivalent. There's no Bitcoin asset that's in such demand, with such low supply, that the volume has to come from shorts in order to exist. Of course, that might just be because, in the current buildout of the Bitcoin economy, options are about the most exotic financial instrument available.
are you interested on CDS I can try to convince Raphael to code something like that on BFX  Grin

What about just "normal" options? Wink
2010  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why going all-in is not financially responsible. Capital is your Security. on: March 11, 2013, 03:17:33 PM
OP of course your advice is sensible, for me personally I could reduce it to something like:"to support bitcoin is hard work, not easy money",only it's hard work that I like.

Besides, I think I should add that the bitcoin rally is creating opportunities for non-bitcoin low-risk investment as well, it's almost guaranteed that someone would be more risk seeking than you and want to borrow your fiats at high interest rate to buy BTC, a very good way to hedge your risk.
2011  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 11, 2013, 02:58:18 PM
Shocked  Where's cypherdoc?

You can count on him to show up when the rally gets heated up.
2012  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 11, 2013, 01:44:30 PM
When is Gox gonna publish their financial report? And finally run out of excuses to not overhaul their infrastructure?
2013  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 11, 2013, 12:58:44 PM
I would not say LTC is not good, but to diverge people from the established, just being "good" is not enough, you have to have something groundbreaking on the table, especially when it's about money.
2014  Economy / Speculation / Re: MtGox frozen? 25 minute lag? on: March 11, 2013, 07:34:22 AM
So now it's like, they can randomly freeze for no apparent reason? Huh
2015  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 11, 2013, 06:56:30 AM
Well, looks like someone's wire transfer has just gone through...
2016  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LTC Wall Observer - BTC-e wall movement tracker on: March 11, 2013, 04:57:48 AM

The ask side makes me LOL. Cheesy
2017  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 11, 2013, 02:18:04 AM
Someone seems to be dropping 300-500 BTC every once in a while.
2018  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consent and the price of bitcoins in China on: March 11, 2013, 02:13:27 AM
After you take possession of the bitcoins you have a lot more options with regards to privacy and plausible deniability.

Agreed. I just don't like exposing myself anymore than I have to. Withdrawing cash and buying offline from the start adds even more privacy and deniability.

"boo hoo hoo, mtgox is a BIG MEANIE for having first mover advantage

Not at all. I'm not the envious sort.

But I am a little paranoid about the Money Powers seizing control of the exchange price. Goxilla's move to the US strikes me as a possible setup for such a thing.

I think there are also many institutional investors out there understand bitcoin's potential and uniqueness, and even the evil guys are not a cohesive group, Wall Street have such dominance with their financial instruments mostly because they had a headstart, others will have to play by their rule. now in the bitcoin world all evil guys are gonna fight each other on a level playing field, American hedge funds, European Rothschild wannabes, Chinese red capitalists, Russian mafias, Middle East oil princes....no one group will be dominant forever.
2019  Economy / Speculation / Re: Two simple charts. on: March 11, 2013, 01:57:27 AM
Does the "hype cycle" chart still apply if the technology really is a "new paradigm"? I hope the fact that that was my first question is not a bad sign...  Wink

This is the response I was looking for. My point here is that markets are participated in by people. You are investing fiat money in an asset. Mass market psychology applies here. There is no new paradigm. People who say "new paradigm" will be caught in the mania phase with their pants down and their fingers wrapped firmly around their bitcoins -- unwilling to sell at any price.

Take a look at the AAPL chart posted in this thread. It matches the hype cycle chart even better than bitcoin does. That person's wish "why can't we be more like AAPL" is a dangerous wish indeed Smiley

Well, great, everything will fail, only fiats are so precious and invulnerable, fantastic.
2020  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I used to have some respect for Chris Douane... on: March 11, 2013, 01:51:18 AM
tl;dr/w :

Quote
With Silver at $28 and Bitcoin at $48- I would be dumping any Bitcoin for Real Silver at http://www.coinabul.com/
Today I am releasing my half hour 2 part expose' on how Bitcoin is a Ponzi Scheme and it's connection with the CIA.

No need to spend more time. Another sad silverbug...

If he can't even figure out what a Ponzi Scheme is I would not expect him to be able to understand bitcoin.
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