The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.
Please, tell me more I beg you  The hard-earned money is at stake now. (I believe this is a service to all, the rally needs to have a breather and I want to profit) Okay, first you could just setup a trading account on Bitfinex and taking BTC loans there, there seems to be about 2000 BTC available for borrowing there, this is a platform not incorporated yet, but the security seems to be relatively solid as these guys put most of their balance in a cold wallet and process withdrawals once per day manually. For options trading the biggest platform is MPEX, but it has been down for days and is notoriously unfriendly to use, or you could try icbit.se, there is also a MPEX passthrough called coinbr(disclaimer: I haven't done any BTC option trading personally yet) So you think there could be demand for the service I outlined (and playtested) in the other thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149083.0It would allow me to just specify in which exchange rate outcome (what price and what week) I want to profit and how much, and calculate the option premium (or call it wager if you will). No need to register anywhere, just send BTC, and the blockchain will testify that everything is done honestly. Demand? WTF are you talking about? This is so f***ing cool I am gonna try it out in no time!  Keep it up buddy, those MPEX thugs need some serious kicks in the ass!  |
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By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)
In bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter! There was the same talk in 2011 - and then voila - all the envious people could buy their coins at 2$. I guess it was the same when bitcoin broke 1$. People don't understand how crazy it felt back then - I read about it in Jun 2010 ( http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/bitcoin-p2p-cryptocurrency-now-in-public-beta/2010/06/16) - and I thought - "interesting idea - I'll need to have a look in a few years when it starts to get traction". Then a fried started mailing me about it - and I thought - hmm maybe there is something - I'll invest in it - but first I need to read the white paper. And then there was the slashdot effect and bitcoin was suddenly above 1$ and I still did not even know if the crypto is sound, but apparently people invested in it thousands - so they must have analyzed the paper right? But I still wanted to read the paper myself. And then buying - you send your hard earned money to guys that run a Magic the Gathering (what the fuck?) card exchange site. I would not do it, it was crazy as shit - but just by chance I had something like occasion and I bought - my girlfriend did not even want to talk about it - "yeah - you just sent our vacations to some crazy guy!". So what's so bad? If you have held until now, it's going to be way more profitable than putting your money into banks, whatever way you look at it. |
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The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.
Please, tell me more I beg you The hard-earned money is at stake now. (I believe this is a service to all, the rally needs to have a breather and I want to profit) Okay, first you could just setup a trading account on Bitfinex and taking BTC loans there, there seems to be about 2000 BTC available for borrowing there, this is a platform not incorporated yet, but the security seems to be relatively solid as these guys put most of their balance in a cold wallet and process withdrawals once per day manually. For options trading the biggest platform is MPEX, but it has been down for days and is notoriously unfriendly to use, or you could try icbit.se, there is also a MPEX passthrough called coinbr(disclaimer: I haven't done any BTC option trading personally yet) |
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(I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.)
Great, where will you go short? I can borrow you some. Hmmm. any suggestions?  My position is about 500. What do you think is the best way to change this to a position of -1000, (so that I profit $1000 for each dollar it loses value)? I don't care about technicalities. What matters to me is - Liquidity. Possible to enter and exit contract within reasonable time (after all it is 1500 BTC change in position) - Security. I don't want to lose my BTC or profits. - Fees. Yeah this kind of play is expensive but I am a very fee-averse person and quite skilled in maths Well, probably can't help you out then, I had about 200-300 available for borrowing, but the remaining unloaned part is only 50 by now. The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives. |
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During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.
Yet. (I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.) Great, where will you go short? I can lend you some. EDIT: Well, things suddenly moved just as we spoke. |
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By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)
Yes, my post was to confirm what you said Luck can go two ways. Had I taken the time to send $1000 to Mt.Gox when it was trading at $.25, I would now have 4000 coins (or likely less because the slippage would have eaten at least 500 I think I am actually among the luckiest ones by being forced to hold my bag during the 2011 crash, having seen the ups and downs made many of us stronger hands I believe. |
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Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.
R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..? Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout. Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous. its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months. Nearly all of the volume seems to be made up of buys as well. Usually if there will be a significant dip for the weekend, it will have already happened on thursday or earlier. By now I expect we will inch along until Monday and continue back up again. The TA people and nervous hands cant quite believe that the price will go higher, so let them sell if they want. It will just move into stronger hands next week. I made the bet in my sig that we would hit 50 this year in January, but at this rate it would be quite unreasonable I think to NOT see 100. During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened. |
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eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth.
If we just consider all the time spent on technical development of Bitcoin AND all alt-coins, and charge it at $150 per hour which is quite the norm here for contracting such work, ... I don't know if there is much advantage at all. Of course some will be rich, but it can be attributed to the usual factors why somebody becomes wealthier: - skill - existing capital - hard work - luck And not some magical, unfair, early adopter advantage. I knew about bitcoin in 2010-2011 and it was not really lack of skill or existing capital that I did not invest, it was because of hard work. I was working too hard to have time to seriously consider Bitcoin. By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all) |
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Agreed. I got in early. Not quite $1 early, but after the first rise and fall. Now granted, I figure I'm doing alright with mining but yeah, if I had the capital back then to buy up a bunch of coins at $2, or $5, etc., I'd be more than happy. But then again that's the risk we all take to an extent and I could imagine it being quite painful to have fully sold all coins at a (then) high price. But who's to say the same isn't true today? I'm happy the price is this high but if you're confident it's going to go far far above this, it's always time to buy.
It's a chicken-and-egg problem, if the early adopters had mined a hell load of coins and hoarded and refused to sell, the economy around bitcoin would not have developed, the price would have been nowhere near what it is now, to get people to join, they must redistributed the coins by selling them, (they may have done it involuntarily, we are all pawns of the invisible hand after all) eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth. |
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When you see how bears interpreting every kind of price movement as a bearish indicator, then you can be certain that they have already been overwhelmed by wishful thinking.
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I absolutely don't like the idea of testing $32 again, to the extent that I may prefer the price to stay here for a month than to break out immediately over $50 and fall to $32. We really should bury this ghost from the past, if we can't get rid of it, people will not stop using it to judge if bitcoin is "overvalued", "in a bubble", while it's just in itself a meaningless price point.
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previous high: 31.9099 new high: 49.099 next high 90.99 or 590.99? |
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Well, still almost completely agree with you , there are early adopters who were not after anything, but played with it for a period just for fun, and accumulated a huge amount, that pizza guy is one example. For the rest, yeah, they may not be in for a quick buck, but whether they could survive the incredible pressure during the 2011 crash and not sold out, is another thing, after all, bitcoin had depreciated 16 times from the top in Nov 2011, it's plausible that many would expect it to just fall into oblivion. Thank you for agreeing with me. If, however, everyone did, I could not make any money in the markets... I mean, I invest $100 of my time and money to mine 10000 BTC. Then I sell during the runup (very weak hand example): 5000 when they start trading at $.10 => +500 USD 3000 when they are in dollar parity => +3000 USD then I am so much in the black and it rises so fast that I don't sell anything until.. 1500 after the 6/2011 crash at $10 => +15000 USD. Price goes down to $2. Would I sell the rest for $1000. Nah. I already made $18400 and who knows if it will rise or likely I just forgot about the thing. Selling completely out is not rational for something that you think has even a chance to change the world. After all we are talking about .0024% of how many will ever exist. You know these things if you were in in 2010. That's a totally reasonable estimation, but the number of people in this market who could not understand the importance of positions is astonishing, I have seen too many examples of people getting all in/all out. |
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I have no conclusive evidence of course, but the volume of the dips on the way up from $14 to now are significantly(several times) smaller than those at $2-$4, $7.22 and $15.4, if the driving force behind the dips is rational people who bought at low prices taking profits, there doesn't seem to be any reason why they should sell more at low prices, and less at high prices. So my guess is that most of those who participated in the selloff actually bought at prices close to then current prices, as the price went up, these small-time buyers were able to buy less and less, and sell less and less, with most of the coins held either by bulls with strong convictions since the low price or people with deep pockets, thus the smaller downward volume. that's what I would call "elimination of the weaker hands".
Can be, but you can also measure volume in USD, in which case it is now at ATH. IF I were a large early hand, say starting with 25 000 BTC in January 2011, I would have 2 options: - Gradual selling to the strength in order to diversify and/or pay for living - Strategic position to ripple out at certain time/price intervals The choice would be according to my fiat wealth. If BTC is my only asset, I would sell parts of it when I have a chance. If I have $1 million other assets, I would play strategic, determined to be one of the top players in the coming cryptocurrency world, perhaps acquiring more in dips. NOW, the former is a weak hand, because he has no intention to ever buy. The only question is when to sell. The latter is a strong hand. He has no intention to sell except when he feels the greater good (eg. bitcoin adaptation or orderly price appreciation) requires it. He may even buy, and can buy, significant volumes if that is required. I feel that there has been rather many opportunities for weak hands to sell during the runup. This I why I believe now is the time for strong hands to terminate the upleg, for the greater good (also making fiat in the progress that can be deployed back later or used for other purposes during the following months). It is healthy that we do not go into extreme to a bubble. I tend to think, weak hands alone cannot yet make the price crash. The strong ones need to be willing to sell also. I think they should, even if they only profit from $40->$30, stabilising the value of bitcoin around the previous ATH is a service to all. After 2 months we can start a new, healthy rise where everybody smiles. I almost completely agree with you, although based on my own experience, all major Bitcoin crashes up to now consist of two waves of massive selloffs with a short period of dead cat bounce sandwiched in between, and the golden time window for the second, more massive wave is 12-24 hours after the bottom of the first wave, but I have not seen the second wave yet, of course there could be multiple reasons delaying it, it could still happen. Besides that, many of the early adopters could be in purely because of luck or their technical prowess, yet have no experience with investment at all, most of these people, I believe, have been washed out in the crash of 2011, but we still can not rule out the possibility that one or two of them hold out until now to cash out. |
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I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.
Maybe. The order book is beginning to flip around. The number of BTCs up for sale is up over 100k and it's probably going to continue to grow as the price moves further down. The big players have set a new direction now, and it isn't up. It might seem gradual now, but it will accelerate. Single digits is very realistic. Oh proudhon ... Yeah, the big players want it down, it's silly me, the small time player, who 2 days ago spent $10M to buy overpriced bitcoins, now I just want to kick myself.... |
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In fact, if you try to analyze our previous "crashes", you will find that the higher the price, the smaller the volume of the dips, it's a sign of weak hands getting eliminated.
Please explain the reasoning behind this. I have no conclusive evidence of course, but the volume of the dips on the way up from $14 to now are significantly(several times) smaller than those at $2-$4, $7.22 and $15.4, if the driving force behind the dips is rational people who bought at low prices taking profits, there doesn't seem to be any reason why they should sell more at low prices, and less at high prices. So my guess is that most of those who participated in the selloff actually bought at prices close to then current prices, as the price went up, these small-time buyers were able to buy less and less, and sell less and less, with most of the coins held either by bulls with strong convictions since the low price or people with deep pockets, thus the smaller downward volume. that's what I would call "elimination of the weaker hands". |
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Just one little detail bugs me in your story: Why da f*ck in Singapore and not in Berlin?  Sorry was that some personal friend of yours from Berlin? I was just guessing If it's in Berlin he will shoot himself and give his wife cyanides, then his guards will wrap his corpse up in a blanket and burn them on gasoline, while the shells from the big fiat guns of the Red Bull Army explode all around them. |
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oh trolling with "actual money" on bitcoin forums, so sweet and new sorry i can see how that phrase can offend people here. i mean to say (i'll cut out my sarcasm i know it doesn't translate well) they're not really suckers because they still made money. Suckers lose money and people who sold actually made money so they are not suckers. Is this clear You might not believe it, but I could assure you that most of those participated in this panic sell did not get in at low prices like $2 or $5, they most probably bought in the frenzy of the runup from 2011 ATH to $49, many of them lose money or made very little. Had they gotten in at low prices, they should have already sold in the multiple "crashes" we saw before. In fact, if you try to analyze our previous "crashes", you will find that the higher the price, the smaller the volume of the dips, it's a sign of weak hands getting eliminated. |
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Was Gox this sluggish in June and November 2011 when the big selloff happened? Anyone remembers?
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Hehehe. $44 is dead. Long live $45.
Seems to be hotting up, I wonder how long it will be until MtGox goes bad again. Not very long at all, it seems. Bitcoinity already has a 25 second lag warning. There it is... I swear I could reach across the ocean and slap Karpeles across the back of the head! And when you get back you will find out you trade is just about to be executed. |
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