Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[ineededausername]

Don't be on the wrong side of history!

Here's a history lesson from what looks like mid-October, 2011.

You could be one of the asks on the right in this picture, tripping over yourself to sell at $3.  I gotta admit, I was one of them.  I'm kicking myself now, but fortunately managed to accumulate under $10.



Or you could be the ghost line... looks like he bought 1500 BTC for around <$5k.  I was around back then, and I remember all the whining about "early adopters."  The ghost line bidder was an early adopter... he just didn't know it.  He caught a falling knife, and made a >$60k profit if he held.

The only TA metric you need to use is the kicking-yourself metric.  Do you want to be like proudhon, envious of all the people who bought at $2 as he proclaimed the death of bitcoin?  He's kicking himself now.

[solex]

 Do you want to be like proudhon, envious of all the people who bought at $2 as he proclaimed the death of bitcoin?  He's kicking himself now.

I feel sorry for proudhon if he has sold his holding competely, he comes across as a nice person...

[The-Real-Link]

Agreed.  I got in early.  Not quite $1 early, but after the first rise and fall.  Now granted, I figure I'm doing alright with mining but yeah, if I had the capital back then to buy up a bunch of coins at $2, or $5, etc., I'd be more than happy.  But then again that's the risk we all take to an extent and I could imagine it being quite painful to have fully sold all coins at a (then) high price.  But who's to say the same isn't true today?  I'm happy the price is this high but if you're confident it's going to go far far above this, it's always time to buy.

[oakpacific]

Agreed.  I got in early.  Not quite $1 early, but after the first rise and fall.  Now granted, I figure I'm doing alright with mining but yeah, if I had the capital back then to buy up a bunch of coins at $2, or $5, etc., I'd be more than happy.  But then again that's the risk we all take to an extent and I could imagine it being quite painful to have fully sold all coins at a (then) high price.  But who's to say the same isn't true today?  I'm happy the price is this high but if you're confident it's going to go far far above this, it's always time to buy.

It's a chicken-and-egg problem, if the early adopters had mined a hell load of coins and hoarded and refused to sell, the economy around bitcoin would not have developed, the price would have been nowhere near what it is now, to get people to join, they must redistributed the coins by selling them, (they may have done it involuntarily, we are all pawns of the invisible hand after all) eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth.

[lebing]

Because its a wall thread:

[Wekkel]

Meanwhile, price isn't going anywhere. Normally, that's to the advantage of the bulls, but a correction still lures around the corner.

[rpietila]

That's a $17,000+ buy... wow.

Dude, I was panic buying just about.. um... 9 days ago. Had €5000 and the rate was €25.4 per bitcoin. Hit "market order" and it shot up to €26.2something making a new all time high in the process. That felt also good

Disclaimer: I did not add to my own position. I may or may not hold bitcoins.

[rpietila]

Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.

R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..?

Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout.

Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous.

[lebing]

Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.

R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..?

Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout.

Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous.

its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months. Nearly all of the volume seems to be made up of buys as well. Usually if there will be a significant dip for the weekend, it will have already happened on thursday or earlier. By now I expect we will inch along until Monday and continue back up again.

The TA people and nervous hands cant quite believe that the price will go higher, so let them sell if they want. It will just move into stronger hands next week. I made the bet in my sig that we would hit 50 this year in January, but at this rate it would be quite unreasonable I think to NOT see 100.

[rpietila]

eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth.

If we just consider all the time spent on technical development of Bitcoin AND all alt-coins, and charge it at $150 per hour which is quite the norm here for contracting such work, ...

I don't know if there is much advantage at all. Of course some will be rich, but it can be attributed to the usual factors why somebody becomes wealthier:
- skill
- existing capital
- hard work
- luck

And not some magical, unfair, early adopter advantage.

I knew about bitcoin in 2010-2011 and it was not really lack of skill or existing capital that I did not invest, it was because of hard work. I was working too hard to have time to seriously consider Bitcoin.

[zby]

Agreed.  I got in early.  Not quite $1 early, but after the first rise and fall.  Now granted, I figure I'm doing alright with mining but yeah, if I had the capital back then to buy up a bunch of coins at $2, or $5, etc., I'd be more than happy.  But then again that's the risk we all take to an extent and I could imagine it being quite painful to have fully sold all coins at a (then) high price.  But who's to say the same isn't true today?  I'm happy the price is this high but if you're confident it's going to go far far above this, it's always time to buy.

It's a chicken-and-egg problem, if the early adopters had mined a hell load of coins and hoarded and refused to sell, the economy around bitcoin would not have developed, the price would have been nowhere near what it is now, to get people to join, they must redistributed the coins by selling them, (they may have done it involuntarily, we are all pawns of the invisible hand after all) eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth.

In Bitcoin everyone can be an early adopter!

[oakpacific]

eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth.

If we just consider all the time spent on technical development of Bitcoin AND all alt-coins, and charge it at $150 per hour which is quite the norm here for contracting such work, ...

I don't know if there is much advantage at all. Of course some will be rich, but it can be attributed to the usual factors why somebody becomes wealthier:
- skill
- existing capital
- hard work
- luck

And not some magical, unfair, early adopter advantage.

I knew about bitcoin in 2010-2011 and it was not really lack of skill or existing capital that I did not invest, it was because of hard work. I was working too hard to have time to seriously consider Bitcoin.

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

[rpietila]

its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months.

Yes, this is what I mean. After such a spike in volume, a low volume is a dangerous sign. If either side comes back with vengeance, the volume will shoot up and price will move. It is the bulls that need to defend the current price. Until Monday, I believe there is much greater chance for a big move to the down side rather than up. But if we hold $40-$42, the bulls win, cause after this, no one will panic anymore and uptrend will be confirmed.

Rather funny, the daily chart does not even show a dip

[oakpacific]

Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.

R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..?

Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout.

Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous.

its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months. Nearly all of the volume seems to be made up of buys as well. Usually if there will be a significant dip for the weekend, it will have already happened on thursday or earlier. By now I expect we will inch along until Monday and continue back up again.

The TA people and nervous hands cant quite believe that the price will go higher, so let them sell if they want. It will just move into stronger hands next week. I made the bet in my sig that we would hit 50 this year in January, but at this rate it would be quite unreasonable I think to NOT see 100.

During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.

[lebing]

Lines on a chart 

[rpietila]

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

Yes, my post was to confirm what you said

Luck can go two ways. Had I taken the time to send $1000 to Mt.Gox when it was trading at $.25, I would now have 4000 coins (or likely less because the slippage would have eaten at least 500

[zby]

Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.

R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..?

Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout.

Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous.

its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months. Nearly all of the volume seems to be made up of buys as well. Usually if there will be a significant dip for the weekend, it will have already happened on thursday or earlier. By now I expect we will inch along until Monday and continue back up again.

The TA people and nervous hands cant quite believe that the price will go higher, so let them sell if they want. It will just move into stronger hands next week. I made the bet in my sig that we would hit 50 this year in January, but at this rate it would be quite unreasonable I think to NOT see 100.

During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.

It usually happens on Sunday or Monday - but yeah - I have the feeling that this time people just won't sell - too much good news lately.

[rpietila]

During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.

Yet.


(I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.)

[oakpacific]

By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)

Yes, my post was to confirm what you said

Luck can go two ways. Had I taken the time to send $1000 to Mt.Gox when it was trading at $.25, I would now have 4000 coins (or likely less because the slippage would have eaten at least 500

I think I am actually among the luckiest ones by being forced to hold my bag during the 2011 crash, having seen the ups and downs made many of us stronger hands I believe.

[oakpacific]

During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.

Yet.


(I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.)

Great, where will you go short? I can lend you some.

EDIT: Well, things suddenly moved just as we spoke.