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2041  Other / Meta / Re: Forum ads auction rules on: August 30, 2021, 03:41:49 PM
I thought I remembered them from something, Theymos removed their ad last time so I imagine he'd do the same again.

It mightve been a good thing you brought this up though OP! Just in case Theymos forgot - might've stopped a few people getting scammed.
2042  Economy / Speculation / Re: Parabolic blowoff top or Rounded top on: August 30, 2021, 02:30:07 PM
I don't think institutions are stupid enough to srl for short term profits. They might pull out their initial capital at some point when they've got 4x on it but until then, they're probably riding the crypto hype - and there'll be a lot of people buying that sort of news if it's put in a way thst a company invested $4M, pulled out their initial capital and still have $12M at play (because retail will want to do the same).
2043  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will $50,000 be the resistant price? on: August 30, 2021, 02:25:10 PM
When bitcoin price was rising, I was thinking it will not rise above $50,000, $50,000 is like the resistant price for now, the price falled back the way I was expecting it to be, but the price of bitcoin has been increasing and decreasing within $47000 and $50000, this makes me to be confused of where the price is going to.


$50 000 is a good psychological level for a take profit but I don't think it's going to hold up too much resistance.

A lot of the time, pullbacks are healthy for price growth as exponential moves always induce a pullback but if you get them as you go up - investors look at them as being a lot healthier and with new support and resistance zones.

I think to this extent, if you're bullish on bitcoin, the more we stop at a high zone the more likely it is to act as support/resistance and once we break above it decisively and set out next support zone, it's just become harder to reach the original one.
2044  Economy / Economics / Re: The lending problem on: August 29, 2021, 11:44:27 PM
A decentralised system might be a more indiscriminate one.

If we assume the past of what happened, people owned land/property and it was let to them or sold via a mortgage. A lender might know you, ask someone who does to provide a reference or rely on you having a good character (eg having a job and being fairly smartly/cleanly dressed) before lending to you. This is still what happens in a lot of jobs these days where someone on a team assesses applicants to see how well they get on with them.

Currently a lot of systems just use computers to work out whether they can lend to someone and it causes a lot of imbalance - I think this happened to an extent that countries have started passing laws against algorithms making the final decisions on you though. I don't think going back to how things were is necessarily a good idea but it may emerge as a competitor of the current system. I highly doubt you can expect a fully digital contract to be allowed for the value of something like a house, but a witnessed physical contract (referenced and stored online) might still be effective.
2045  Economy / Economics / Re: Do Bitcoin moving average (EMA/SMA) derivatives exist? Would they make sense? on: August 29, 2021, 01:14:19 AM
Would there be a use case for this derivative?

It's probably a good idea for reducing the volatility got those wanting to invest as the most it could drop in a day with the 50ema is 2%.

I don't think this sort of asset could be physically represented by something relevant so there probably isn't a use case as there is in goods extraction/production scenario.

I think you spotted the main problem of such an hypothetic contract: that in phases where the moving average is higher than the spot price you will probably not find a buyer for the moving average price, so you will make an additional loss. It hasn't to go to zero, only significantly lower. So the "naive" version of it would probably not work.

It would however be interesting, if the price of these contracts would follow exactly the spot price (then they of course wouldn't make any sense) or if there could be any advantage on buying the moving average if it's higher than the spot price which could result in a premium, making it less volatile. For example there could be people valuing inertia, and if there are enough of them, they could move the price in the direction of the moving average.


Yeah it can't go to zero but yeah you can't get people to buy it if btc is lower either as it won't recover as well as bitcoin - but it might act as a hedge in some cases (especially against volatility)?

One idea could be to try to replicate an asset which works a bit similar with options. A trader could sell the right to sell Bitcoin for the price of a moving average, which would be similar to a put option, only with a changing price. Maybe this could even work with call options, have to think about that a bit if it can behave different enough than normal, static put/call options.


I think this may work but it'd need something tight to control what the ema and price are being sold to the user as in the contract.



PS: I thought again a bit about this post and I think now I made a wrong assumption, so I'm more optimistic again about this kind of contract. Instead, if the settlement process is done right (i.e. the trading platform guarantees that the contract is settled at the EMA/SMA price point) then these contracts should work without problems. After all, you trade the EMA/SMA and not a "physical" Bitcoin, so even if Bitcoin goes to zero, the EMA/SMA value can still be worth something and the trading platform can enforce it if the collateral is enough. It would be a simple bet like on football games.

Yeah it is good for lower volatility and if its enforceable by the exchange then I see no reason there'd be a problem/breakdown (unless the pair was traded more on the exchange than bitcoin because of its lower volatility - idk if that'd happen or not.
2046  Economy / Economics / Re: What could make a hacker return stolen $600m crypto on: August 29, 2021, 12:55:18 AM

Usually, you can either return the sum and be rewarded a certain % for returning it or you can return the sum and be hired by the company's security team. This makes your millions legal income and so you have zero worries about losing your freedom for your actions.

Yeah these are the main reasons for doing something like this.

Getting a job might be better than getting the money if you're bad with money too as it should be more consistent.

I wouldn't know the best way to return funds to a company though so if that was preplanned by the attacker then I guess they could probably be assumed to be honest. There might be the obvious additional threat that they're wanting to be trusted by the company to carry out a larger attack though - which will probably be/has been something the company can assess if the attacker was aiming for the job route.
2047  Economy / Economics / Re: Do Bitcoin moving average (EMA/SMA) derivatives exist? Would they make sense? on: August 28, 2021, 12:28:43 AM
Who would sell this kind of contract? Of course, those who believe Bitcoin is overvalued.

Smugly, I don't think these people actually exist...

In comparison, I really want to open a short on automation etfs at the moment but I'm holding off because I expect them to drop and then grow more and don't expect them to stop growing (overall) so I'll wait for a sell off to come or not.

You find someone who expects innovation to crash and you've found someone throwing coins into a fountain hoping a genie pops out.

I'm much more confident longing something that has made good consecutive gains than I am shorting something that has and I feel most with the ability to make something like this would feel the same.

The ema is also much more of a "takes time to move system" if bitcoin crashed to zero and you opened a 50d ema the day before, you're selling your 50d ema contract for ~49% of what you bought it for - all of the risk if put on the exchange unless you make it so you can't end your contract early (and set your expiration date when you buy it).
2048  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Jack of all crypto, master of none on: August 28, 2021, 12:17:14 AM
Yeah, this is quite the lesson in starting to trade with tiny amounts of funds.

It's another lesson in beginners luck, it was a meme a while ago that a lot of traders have the intelligence-confidence cycle peak where the confidence peaks before intelligence does and this is quite a common occurance for the pattern with traders.

Sadly, a lot of these sites won't care about the losses a user makes either and will just want to take more money from them as it's their entire business model (and yes I do think the onus should be put on exchanges to tell new traders to futures that they're essentially gambling until they know what they're doing).
2049  Other / Meta / Re: How does this website stay up? on: August 27, 2021, 04:28:50 PM
Is he paid to be an administrator,  or does he just share in the forum's profits?
Highly possible. From all of the work/update made by theymos especially if there's a forum problem, downtime, ddos and etc, compensation should be a must.

I just don't know about cyrus, since he's still a working mod, maybe his rate is much higher than other mods.

Maybe they just mined a few blocks back in 2011.
I'd assumed they'd just take money out every so often though to pay for forum expenses and their own. I'd imagine the aws operation for running this is quite expensive so I doubt them taking a normal site head operators salary would be unreasonable - compared with how much funds the forum has too.



I thought the forum was owned by some sort of charity that is owned by a few people/the community so that it can stay alive if something happens to one of the admins - although I guess we have archive sites for historical reference anyway.
2050  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Swaped BTC to BNB then swaped it into coins on pancake swap, how to tax? on: August 27, 2021, 04:02:52 PM
Just use the dollar value that btc started off with, if you don't know then I'd just use the low of the day and the high when you sold to get an overestimate if you don't know it accurately and you want to be sure you've reported enough.

I did think there was a historic fiat value you can get though which you might want to look at finding by just clicking around - on binance they might offer a way to find your capital gains like a lot of other places do.
2051  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: My challenge on: August 27, 2021, 11:28:58 AM
Have you tried using the forum's search feature here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=search ?

I'd say if you can't find an answer here or on stackoveflow/stackexchange you could just ask it here anyway. A lot of questions newbies ask (I think) will be quite abstract so search engines might not be able to work out what you're after (if you get what I mean, you might Kot be able to find an answer to something because one doesn't exist - people ask questions related to ethereum about bitcoin for example and the two coins are quite structurally different).
2052  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Big sad on: August 26, 2021, 07:48:55 PM
Bitcoin is one of the best cryptocurrencies out there, if you've converted your funds to that then you'll have fairly guaranteed success imo for longer than a lot of the major altcoins currently on offer.

The chances cardarno doubled after doing nothing would've been quite low too. If you have made a profit or even just a tiny loss before converting to btc, you've done quite well (especially if it was 2 months ago when bitcoin started dumping - as most alts had followed and plateaud compared with it).

The trick with long(ish) term trading is working out the best times to buy and sell but also the safest time. If you're selling very near the peak of a price move - you're risking too much and would be lucky it filled (volatility dependent).
2053  Economy / Economics / The UK's FCA and Binance talks break down on: August 26, 2021, 05:23:17 PM
I saw an article on this a few days back from a legitimate source and I'm wondering why no one else seems to have made a topic here on it.

It seems the UK financial conduct authority was trying to find a way to come to an agreement with binance to keep operating in the UK but put blame on binance for not being able to answer the questions it wanted them to.

I'm not entirely sure, personally, if this has any impact on bitcoin at all as I think there is a lot of competition to binance the FCA won't be able to find or that will comply with the FCA (such as coinbase and decentralised exchanges and the smaller leverage platforms).
2054  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Good news Citigroup Reportedly Working to Start Trading Bitcoin Futures. on: August 26, 2021, 05:17:40 PM
U.S. banking giant Citigroup (NYSE: C) is reportedly awaiting regulatory approval to start trading bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The firm would join Goldman Sachs in offering bitcoin futures trading.

This bit of news feels like it's only bullish once it actually gets approved. There have been a lot of etfs and other things we've waited for in the past and the initial bullishness of their approval is normally the only thing that matters.

If it does get approved it'll be a good on-ramp for a lot of funds though that want to invest in crypto or dabble with the idea of risking a few % on bitcoin (which they probably won't notice is gone anyway - since that institution is quite well known).
2055  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Riot Blockchain reports 1,540% increase in quarterly revenue from Bitcoin mining on: August 26, 2021, 04:42:18 PM
I'm a bit surprised they're saying how much they're aggressively acquiring more equipment now, afaik the point where you make an unexpected amount of money is the one you pull out for a while and see what's happening - unless the China mining ban is here to stay.

That being said, I think we can expect bitcoin's blockchain to become a lot more secure (get additional hashing power behind it) as a result of the hype from this.
2056  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin's valuable information on: August 26, 2021, 04:37:12 PM
So what will be the status of Bitcoin between 2022 and 2025?
I can imagine the overall/international stock market doing quite well for the next three years (definitely after this one and the start of the next year) so I think bitcoin might follow a similar trajectory.

Will the value of Bitcoin in cryptocurrency increase or decrease according to them?

Why and who knows?

I assume a lot of them are like some of us in crypto who are wondering why other people haven't gotten involved in the space and why the price keeps increasing - no one's not hear of bitcoin by this point afaik and what has stopped them investing in it other than a lack of knowledge (that they might not still have when they do come to invest).
2057  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto is not limited till buying Bitcoins, it is beyond this. on: August 26, 2021, 01:05:47 AM
We have:
+ NFTs (we know about one user who sold an NFT for $60k that he won for free - a life changing experience)

+ DeFi tokens (liquidity pools, staking, farming are all giving huge returns for small investors)

+ P2E (Play 2 Earn is another way to make money by playing games online and getting tokens or NFTs as rewards, some games have different types of rewards)

All but the last (unless that includes pay to play to earn) carry a substantial amount of risk with them.

Sure you might get lucky with an nft, but what if you don't? Your collectible nft may rely solely on the ethereum chain remaining stable for you to be able to use/possess it.

I've seen defi tokens to a bunch of different things. Sure sushi and uni were quite saught after and might not be much risk but some icos in that space have crashed kinda quickly.

Investing in innovation might come with more risk than people are willing to grit their teeth and bear for the payoff (which could, realistically be small if you've made a mistake or the team you've invested in have).
2058  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Fake token in wallet on: August 25, 2021, 08:45:41 PM
Is this just an annoyance thing? Afaik they can't cost you more than the fees you pay to attempt to swap it unless they have access to your machine or something.

Also, per the question, it depends on the type of wallet you're using but for metamask you can just highlight the token and remove it that way.
2059  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: ICO's and the taxation. on: August 25, 2021, 03:59:21 PM
I'd normally advise against investing in ICOs first off because they're more risk than they're worth. A company has a few days to overhype itself and then can just disappear or perform averagely after that.

However, paying tax on an ico isn't something that's really ever done. With the exception of the UK's 0.5% stamp duty, I haven't heard of any other company charging a similar rate and most leave tax filing up to the individual.
2060  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: How to create Ideal Non-Inflated money? on: August 25, 2021, 02:10:08 PM
Yeah it's going to be impossible to make a currency completely asset backed and a global reserve, you can have one or those you can't have both.

Firstly, only north America, Australasia, Europe, half of Asia, and parts of Africa have full asset ownership laws and even then governments can request to buy back property or seize it. So your new currency isn't globally backed anymore.

Secondly, is there going to be successful crash mitigation? If the whole stock market drops 20%, is everything a few % higher to make up for it?

If you pick an asset like gold, what happens if a new mine with a large amount of it in is found, does it also crash? There's no reasonable way you can inflate something that exists too that governments or people will accept imo.
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