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2061  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 16, 2011, 05:56:06 PM
How the fuck was this thread left on the main page but my MIRROR thread with the reverse opinion is shoved into the speculation sub-forum?

Just for the uninformed, a hissy fit looks like the above Smiley
2062  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 16, 2011, 01:02:58 AM
Oh sure, now I get three reports on this thread. Ha.

Ha, a lot has transpired since I last looked at the board. The difference is, I'm not going to have a hissy fit like Synaptic Smiley Think we still had a some good posts compared to the disaster his thread spawned. Keep it up, guys!
2063  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 07:23:17 PM

 Grin Grin Grin MEGA LAWL   

(snip, ad infinitum)


You're right, the proportion of emoticons to useful content does indicate underlying intelligence. Good call!
2064  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:39:59 PM
The chart on number of nodes are very indicative.. However, you should take into account of another trend: web-based wallet.

I rarely open my wallets now. Most of my coins are in Mt.Gox/Tradehill. If I need to send coins, I send it from there.

Why?
Because every time I open my wallet.....  I have to wait 0.5-1 hour for the blocks to catch up!!!   Angry

Until we can get a thin client, this can be somewhat preventive to adoptions (I remember when I install the client on a new PC I have to wait 4 hours before I can send/receive any coins. Imagine how a new user would feel.), and it'll push the trends toward web-based wallets more.

Good point. You are right that there will be refinements to how people manage their wallets and coins. The numbers in my article don't take that into account. All we can do is make educated guesses, until other methods of measuring exist.

2065  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:37:20 PM
And then, almost 3 pages in, not a single one of these antithetical "contributors" has posted anything thoughful or comprehensive in refutation of my post. Just hollow quips, ad hominem, and "nothing to here"s. Yes, truly all of the growth in this community is of intelligent, well reasoned individuals.

Synaptic, I know you must be tired pounding out on the keyboard as you have in the last hour, but honestly - nothing could be farther from the truth. Here it is, just in case you forgot:

Quote
I'm glad you were inspired by my thread - right down to the topic phrasing. Lets see if we can look at this objectively.

Quote
Bitcoin just enjoyed more media exposure over the past 3 months than can reasonably be expected to occur anywhere in the near future

So, you know the future then? That is what you're implying. I tend to disagree.

Quote
It was clearly a bubble that started with the Silk Road coverage, inflated with the mining craze, and ended with the Gox scandal.

You may want to look at my other analysis, which specifically looked at other 'bubbles' in the past. Here's a little reminder:

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26117.0 - "The Dichotomy of a Bubble - Why Bitcoin Will Endure"

For any 'bubble' comparison, we have until the end of August to be proven wrong or not. Again, you claim some kind of future knowledge, which I doubt you have.


Quote
The current "stability" is no such thing. (snip) That's why were seeing a steady loss of a few cents of USD value everyday. And this will continue for the long haul.

Again, you claim to know future value. I find this interesting, as no-one has clear knowledge of the future. My post about future potential growth wasn't about dates and times, only a general guide as to how I think things will work out. I didn't claim to know for sure. Why are you so sure, then?

Quote
This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.

I find most facts have citations - all I can see in your post is some unconfirmed knowledge of future events. So which are you, an oracle, or someone talking out of their ass?

I'll give you time, again - I realize raging and foaming at the mouth takes energy away from responding constructively...

2066  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:28:51 PM

Exactly dumbass, that's why the bitcoin valuation is even LOWER than perceived, because USD is taking another big hit to value, yet bitcoin's relative value still bleeds, and will continue to.

And fuck you, do your own research if you want to be a part of this conversation. The evidence is all around you, just open your eyes and shut your mouth.  Or at least, do some research before you flap your trap.

Start here: bitcoincharts.com

Well, I see I was right about the swear-queue. Lets see if there is anything worthwhile here...

Hmm, no references, except some obtuse comment about bitcoincharts...

I'll check back later to see if you have anything relevant. I still believe in your potential, maybe you're dizzy and feverish. Ate some bad food perhaps? Drank too much after breakfast? I can't say.

Perhaps you are just a chatbot gone awry, feeding upon a constant input of devolving markov-chain references.
2067  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:25:19 PM
Hey Piper67,

I'm flattered at commanding your attention! Isn't it a bit embarrasing for you to see that the company you keep is too stupid to even realize that you were taking a (weak) poke at me?


I see you forgot I admitted my mistake, something that I don't suspect we'll ever see from you. But take care to gloat and laugh, because we know only good things come from that behavior.

Or you could be posting coherently about the topic at hand like a reasonable being.
2068  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why 6 blocks per hour? on: July 15, 2011, 05:22:50 PM
From what I've read from the whitepaper, 1 block every ten minutes was selected as a happy medium for network propagation and the likelyhood of forking the chain to do malicious things.

More can be found here:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/34237903/Bit-Coin-Whitepaper

2069  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:20:59 PM

Actually no, im not either of those two. The only thing that attracts me to bitcoin are the followers. Watching the way they think (there are a few exceptions of course) is like watching the Keystone Cops trying to put a derailed train back on track. You know its never going to happen but you just cant take your eyes away to see what new misery awaits them next.

I wish you all well and hope that bitcoin does give you what you want from it.

Fair enough, BillX. I certainly like the elaboration versus what you posted earlier.

We will see what the experiment yields, I suppose. I'm optimistic for the future.
2070  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:14:59 PM

I was actually supporting your position, TraderTimm... Shinobi has done nothing but trolling ever since I've been reading this forum... today, I happen to have some free time on my hands. As for my opinion, which has been expressed before, having lived through hyperinflation and truly bad economic and monetary policies once in my life, and having a pretty deep understanding of the concept of assigned value, as long as the code is solid (which is one thing I know NOTHING about), I have little doubt that, in the long run, bitcoin will be a success.

We're all early adopters until you can walk on the street, ask ten people what they think of bitcoin, and get more than three to give you a cogent answer.



Ah, the nested quotes made it ambiguous. My apologies.
2071  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:13:35 PM
How old are you?


Old enough to spot B.S. Smiley
2072  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:11:57 PM

Look at the fucking charts, maybe? Idiot?

EDIT: and oh, btw, keep in mind that the value of the USD is falling., especially with the recent Bernanke news. Yeah, always remember that.

Oh I'm so sorry, struck a nerve, have I?

I know it is bothersome to include some charts or links to what you are talking about, but since most people seem able to embed images of all kinds in these forums, I'm sure you can roust yourself to do the same.

And I hate to point things out that turn your argument into so much mud scraped off a boot heel, but a declining dollar value would only change the USD/BTC valuation to the upside. You do know how that works, right?

I'll be here when you get it all together, I know you are too busy queuing up your latest swearwords to answer coherently.
2073  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:06:46 PM

Don't pop his fantasy/reality bubble. He's probably been dreaming about ruling the world with his bitcoins for a long time now.

One at a time, Shinobi, piper67, BillX. Anything beyond pithy one-liners? I know its hard to think and type, but I'm sure you are up to it. Eventually. I await your fact-filled rejoinder eagerly.
2074  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:05:05 PM

Except it hasn't stabilized. It's being artificially propped up and failing it at that. Again, BTC has not had any gain in value since Gox opened back up.  It has been a slow bleeding.

Again, sorry to be stickler and all - but you have some proof to offer us? I mean, if your argument isn't solely fabricated, of course.
2075  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 05:03:54 PM

and who also doesn't understand paradigm shifts, basic economics, monetary policy or international politics... BUT, he does know how to post in a forum.

I'm sorry shinobi Piper67, I've yet to read your opinion on the subject. I'm sure you have more than one-liners in your arsenal? I mean, if you have any cogent arguments at all...
2076  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 04:59:59 PM

In what way is it of immediate use to someone walking down the street right now? What can they buy with it, apart from drugs and some random token products sold in makeshift websites? There is NOTHING the Bitcoin provides for which the Dollar in their pocket isn't of more use.

You need think this through, kid. Really.


I did, that is why I compared to where we are now to the 90's. Actually, you could replace what you just said with the web. You couldn't buy things online in any quantity in 1990. The idea of buying major electronics and books was laughable. Every website was 'makeshift' back then.

All I see is someone who doesn't understand how regime changes work, or the potential of technologies in their early stages.
2077  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 04:58:06 PM
I'm glad you were inspired by my thread - right down to the topic phrasing. Lets see if we can look at this objectively.

Quote
Bitcoin just enjoyed more media exposure over the past 3 months than can reasonably be expected to occur anywhere in the near future

So, you know the future then? That is what you're implying. I tend to disagree.

Quote
It was clearly a bubble that started with the Silk Road coverage, inflated with the mining craze, and ended with the Gox scandal.

You may want to look at my other analysis, which specifically looked at other 'bubbles' in the past. Here's a little reminder:

http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26117.0 - "The Dichotomy of a Bubble - Why Bitcoin Will Endure"

For any 'bubble' comparison, we have until the end of August to be proven wrong or not. Again, you claim some kind of future knowledge, which I doubt you have.


Quote
The current "stability" is no such thing. (snip) That's why were seeing a steady loss of a few cents of USD value everyday. And this will continue for the long haul.

Again, you claim to know future value. I find this interesting, as no-one has clear knowledge of the future. My post about future potential growth wasn't about dates and times, only a general guide as to how I think things will work out. I didn't claim to know for sure. Why are you so sure, then?

Quote
This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.

I find most facts have citations - all I can see in your post is some unconfirmed knowledge of future events. So which are you, an oracle, or someone talking out of their ass?

2078  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 04:49:09 PM

So you are saying that the similarity of the aesthetic is a valid parallel? This is the kind of post that proves to me how poorly-reasoned you die-hards are. While the Yahoo page was "ugly" it was nevertheless immediately useful and user-friendly. If anything, the picture you post shows how little the main function of the page has changed. There was a bar to input your search query and a buttong to click to search. While the quality of the search results has drastically been refined, the search process hasn't changed one iota.



The bitcoin client is 'immediately useful' but could stand refinement. So... you're bashing me with your post that actually affirms what I'm saying?

Wow. Time to take a forum break, my friend.

2079  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 04:47:10 PM
Well, I'm glad at least that those who have very little to contribute to the conversation at least have learned how to embed images in their posts. I'm so proud of you.

For those who get what I was going for, yes, there will be challenges - but I think bitcoin can grow in the same ways the early web grew.
2080  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin growth - The Long View on: July 15, 2011, 02:24:20 PM
how would you acct for a btc enthusiast like myself who never opens up his client unless he needs to?  and i do that only b/c i'm afraid of an attack.

Well, I did include a disclaimer:

Quote
The estimated number of 'active' nodes is a little north of 37,500. (See imperi's post below.) Of course, this omits clients which are installed and only started when specific payments have to be made, but for our purposes it is close enough. (Even if we assume a number like 100,000 it won't make that much of a difference as you will see.)

Even if we include an upper bound of clients that are 'periodic', we're not anywhere near the initial growth curve just yet. I still believe we'll get there due to network effects, though.


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