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2081  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2016, 02:59:17 PM
[...]
If it's "fairly obvious", show us some evidence at least.

That's the catch with censorship.

If big blockers are censored, explain how this guy gets a free pass to start new threads daily and bump old ones on a regular basis.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=196289

Posts are pretty frequently deleted here compared to in the past. Far more so than on other threads, I know this from personal experience.   Nothing was taboo here once upon a time, but policy seems to have changed somewhat.

It is also true that different threads are moderated differently and always have been.
2082  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 18, 2016, 10:39:28 AM
Just got bought in one bite....

Unless whale bought his own wall? 
2083  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 18, 2016, 10:34:49 AM
16000 XMR wall at 0.010745....

So was this all whale play?

EDIT: hadn't refreshed, Dotto - you beat me to it.  Large whale fun indeed.  Fun to see walls that big though...
2084  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 18, 2016, 10:09:35 AM
Shocked

Loving the ping pong - enough volatility to hit a few of my sells and then drop a little so I can buy 'em back and accumulate MOAR!

XMR looking chipper though, Dotto - I trust you're well, Sir?
2085  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 18, 2016, 09:37:54 AM
Nice price action...  Any news I am missing?
2086  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2016, 08:59:27 AM
It seems fairly obvious to me that Adam's been locked out because he's a shameless big-blocker. I miss the days when there was more than one technology opinion allowed on this discussed forum :/

He's been around here occasionally with his sock but it's been a week or so since he showed up. That's his business but I, for one, wouldn't have an epic thread here that I'd be willing to lose sight of forever. I know it's garbage to go from a legend to a schmuck account but one needs to prance around in his big daddy lounge w/ all of his minions like us. Tongue esp when btc is looking at taking off, or if nothing else it has exceeded expectations in the near past. Join the fun and ride the bullish fun together rather than wallow away on some obscure joke of a forum if even that. I pity his ass at this point.

That said, and if you're still perusing us here, Merry Christmas Adam. Same goes for all my fellas around here. And bitchez.

It's still Adam's thread, but not what it was without him.  

I would love to see him back, and he ought to be (preferably off the leash and speaking freely of course).
I left to go to the other thread too for a while, but it's a shadow of what this thread was.  It's still not like it was here either without Adam and the likes of chartbuddy, though - so it's a shame.

Anyway, I wish him and all the Wall Observer Massive (past and present) a Merry Christmas too.  
2087  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2016, 08:46:32 AM

We're on our way to salvation salivation.

amirite? Wink

Hey Oda - long time no see...

Love to know what your crystal ball says.

Hey again Smiley

I've been around, just not posting much.

Not much insights I can offer at the moment, I guess I'm mostly on board with the popular sentiment in here. The current trend looks well established and pretty robust -- and it's not like there hasn't been sufficient testing it to the downside.

The one sentiment I don't know about is the idea of another 'super bubble' anytime soon, or: at any time during the coming years. Sure, it could happen, but I also see the market as a lot more mature now than when I first saw it (and then it was already a lot more mature than during the 2011 rise), so while I can still the possibility of another parabolic rally, I'm personally not placing my money on it.

Agree it's generally bullish, but also 'gently' so right now....  A steady rise is not bad thing, but sharp moves in Bitcoin have been its history so it feels odd.  Everyone's been expecting a run, but that does not a run make of course - and this has not turned out to be the repeat of autumn 2013 most hoped for.

Maybe waiting for the whole consensus thing to play out is what is happening.  At one point it looked like it might stall everything, not so now, but we still don't quite know what Bitcoin is going to look like and how 'corporate' it will be when SW/LN (or whatever happens) comes.

Is that when the fireworks start?

2088  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 17, 2016, 10:49:00 PM

We're on our way to salvation salivation.

amirite? Wink

Hey Oda - long time no see...

Love to know what your crystal ball says.
2089  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 17, 2016, 07:10:52 PM
Speculation then:

Seems BTC is having it's long-awaited French Weekend - might even bust over the 800 mark (although volume is not really earth shattering, so maybe it's just 'another ten bucks up').

Good old Honeypony doesn't seem to give a shit - but if BTC does break 800... Can we keep it up, gentlemen (and ladies, come to that)?
2090  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 17, 2016, 07:05:49 PM

LOL oh man that is one weird-ass gif!!!

And, "HoneyPony" LOL LOL --- I think you just invented the next Major Monero Meme there Cheesy


Just clicked it - as I too love the 'Honeypony' nick - and I agree that gif is awesome.

Got my money on Honeypony...  Wink
2091  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 16, 2016, 11:46:46 AM
Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust

A most oxidizing recommendation, and one well worth following, I say without irony.


Good advice, well worth filing away somewhere.

Oops - I guess that was deserving of corrosive comment
2092  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 16, 2016, 09:12:25 AM
I think the situation is good.
Looking back at when I followed your advices or sayings, I would say you have a far better "backtesting" on long term choices than short term trading... (best decision I take reading your posts and others during 2014 and later: invest in monero long term, worst one : selling a significant part when you predicted capitulation a few weeks ago).

I do believe I warned against this and even opened a long.

I remember it and felt a similar sentiment, but Risto was out of sorts - he was not measured at all, did not give the odds as he usually would.  It was (and still is) 'possible' but even then I felt it was at best a 70/30 against a dip that low.

Historically (yes, I know it's as good as a horoscope), XMR has dipped to lows in December, broken out in Feb, had an August high and then slid down.

It has also normally reacted inversely a disproportionately to BTC price moves.  What seems to be happening is the start of a less fixed inverse relationship and Monero reacting more to events in its own sphere, which makes sense as it matures. 

I do think the GUI will be positive and Ring CT implementation, if it goes smoothly, will show we have a great dev team.   Both ETH and ZEC have blown it, albeit in different ways.  XMR just steadily chugs on and if we stay above 0.01 for the rest of this month, it is hard to see us returning significantly below it again, bar 'black swan' or a BTC run of 2013 proportions.
2093  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 16, 2016, 08:50:58 AM
I think the situation is good.

Good to see you back Risto - I hope things are improving in your world and I am sure I am not the only one looking forward to your further thoughts.

I like your posts, kurious, but I don't get the love for Mr Reptilia (from you and many others.) It affects the impressionable minds of newbies (cough cough me) into thinking this guy is some amazing oracle. I am guilty of believing his earlier predictions and selling a portion of my coins because I surmised he would know better than me (totally my fault, I know.)

Thank you for your compliment.  To explain, Risto was a cheerleader for XMR way back and I was trying to buy it OTC even before it was on Polo because of him as well as Aminorex, who are both intelligent and sagacious investors.

At times he can be wrong, yes - and he has been. Recently calling the 0.006 - 0.004 crash seems one of those calls, but those who know a little about what was going on in his life will probably forgive that one.

As others here have said and he and Aminorex will always admit - at best their calls are an educated guess.  All they have for all their savvy is 'an edge' and on average it will do better than most, but no one is infallible.

Listen to those you think wise and feel you can rust - but always make your own choices in order to learn from your own mistakes.
2094  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 15, 2016, 05:27:56 PM
I think the situation is good.

Good to see you back Risto - I hope things are improving in your world and I am sure I am not the only one looking forward to your further thoughts.
2095  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 15, 2016, 05:25:15 PM
I think the situation is good.

Indeed - hopefully it won't take a Gox-style event for it to happen, but I could definitely see Bitfinex picking up volume over the coming months. The near-term future for XMR looks very strong:

- RingCT
- GUI
- Bitfinex additional liquidity & decentralization (and wallet storage for the risk-takers)

Do we have you back in the XMR game, Risto?

I know it's a long-shot but I'd add to that list FluffyPony's going to speak to coinbase in January too.

Probably has very small chance of happening BUT if Brian Armstrong *really* wants to make a name for himself as a serious mo-fo in the crypto space, adding Monero support for coinbase customers would be an epic, awesome, totally out-of-the-blue amazing game-changer, LOL, especially in light of all this recent hullaballoo over the IRS trying to muscle info out of coinbase on all their customers.

Coinbase is largely persona non grata in crypto space for a long time now, after all the shit they've pulled over the last few years, BUT doing THIS would totally redeem them, at least in my eyes.

Yeah, I know... snowball's chance in hell of actually happening BUT can you IMAGINE what the IMPACT would be IF it really DID happen???

At the end of the day it's business and XMR is an earner.   I don't think they will jump immediately, but opening communication channels is a good idea and never hurts.   

I think they might look at Bitfinex's volume and be non-plussed about it, but if (when, rather) it picks up, then the need to consider it will renew and the obvious privacy factor may or may not be of interest according to how Coinbase sees its own position in crypto long-term.

It would be good for XMR, but it's for them to decide how they see it fitting in.  The volume justifies them considering it, certainly and XMR is growing and gaining respect constantly....
2096  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 15, 2016, 12:41:45 PM

Thank-you, very rational. Anyway, hopefully being added to Bitfinex might negate this "single point-of-failure" (potential) problem? What do you think? And do you know when are they adding it? Thanks, V.

They already added it, not great volume so far, but they aren't doing margin trading yet.

Early days - but yes, in the event of Polo struggling Bitfinex could cope....
2097  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 15, 2016, 11:50:54 AM
Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....
Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO. Cheesy

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.


The missing % isn't what worries me. Don't you think it's bad that 97% of all XMR volume is coming from one exchange. Really, it looks like XMR is the Poloniex "house-coin", and as we all know, exchanges don't last, they always go down in the end. It makes me feel like it's not very safe to hold XMR long-term. How bad/or good would it be for Monero, do you think, if Polo went bye-bye, or would nothing much change? Serious question, no trolling.

The trade would inevitably go elsewhere.  A coin doesn't die when its main exchange disappears.

It would reflect on the alts market, including BTC and all alts - as all would have been affected.   Scandalous, bad for the alts market, bad for XMR - yes initially, but people would still want to buy and sell.

The main risk is that Polo is being used by many people with XMR as a wallet, since there is not GUI.  So more Monero would be 'lost' and therefore the XMR market would be hit. 

If it was a hack - there would be a fear of any stolen coins being dumped - which would depress price. If it was a crash that locked up or lost coins - it would reduce supply and so (in theory) actually increase the price of the remaining available coins.

Whatever happened the market for XMR would still exist - but move to a new location, or new locations.
2098  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 15, 2016, 10:34:45 AM
Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome.  

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....
Hello, friend. I didn't take the plunge yet! I'm afraid I am one of those people who tend to agonise/mull over such decisions for...a while. I don't add new coins to my portfolio without a lot of research beforehand, because I am not a daytrader looking to make a quick buck, but am adopting a long-term holding strategy. In fact it's a real rarity for me to take on a new coin, the last one was VTC a few years ago!

kurious,  tbh this worries me.

Poloniex   XMR/BTC   0.01077300 BTC   2528.177 BTC   Volume %  97%

Bittrex   XMR/BTC   0.01084208 BTC   43.648 BTC           Volume %  1%

Hitbtc   XMR/BTC   0.01075900 BTC   18.547 BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/CNY   53.0000 CNY   1.502   BTC           Volume %  0%

Bter           XMR/BTC   0.00968829 BTC   0.051   BTC           Volume %  0%  

Can you see what is wrong with this picture? (Ok, table).

I'll take a stab at it and sat that 97% is traded on POLO. Cheesy

The missing % is probably what's traded at Bitfinex - which is also miniscule to what is traded on Polo - but they are not offering margin yet, which is what Finex traders were known for....

Polo is where the volume is, Finex will be (hopefully) the fiat on-ramp.  But as a relatively mature currency, the volume is staying where it habitually has been.

2099  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 15, 2016, 09:43:07 AM
Hi, guys! I'm back!!

You're welcome. 

So... have you grabbed any XMR yet?  You could have grabbed them under 0.01 a few days ago....
2100  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: December 15, 2016, 09:41:40 AM

Actually it really means a Windows GUI....


And Mac too: clearly Apple people are far and away more needful of a simple, clean, point & click interface.

Anyone using a Mac who's able to deal with Terminal is clearly on OS X *because* it's UNIX at heart, but this is NOT most Apple people.

Yep!  I am on Mac and found the CLI totally foreign to my natural usage of a computer.

But for patient help and advice here I'd never have managed to work out how to cold store my XMR.   I can't see OSX being left out, though - the GUI for Monero looks to be aiming to be all things to all men.  And women, ofc
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