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China is smarter than "the west". The reason they are all over BTC is because they understand what is happening to the global economy.
Whether bitcoin was invented by the legendary and mystical Satoshi Nakomoto, or is actually the work of some highly secret govt dept in the US that has delivered what it hopes will prevent the total collapse of the USD based currency ponzi. It matters not.
The fact remains the current system is unsustainable, bitcoin conceptually serves as a sound replacement (implementation details are incidental, but to date those details have been pretty goddamn bulletproof, still not the point). All that needs to happen is for the current economic wealth (as measured int he world reserve currency, the USD) to be transferred to bitcoin. Whilst the US govt knows it was fun being able to print money whilst it lasted, it is not *so* stupid as to see that its not really a sustainable model. It knows it needs a 'gold standard' but alas, all the gold is elsewhere so it can't just pet 'er in reverse. Instead its doing what it does best - printing money! Just this money is 'special'. It's actually a digital version of all that gold they once had.
So, when people argue that bitcoin isn't backed by anything, then saying "well neither is the USD" is missing the point.
Bitcoin *is* backed by the USD. The world's reserve currency. If USD is (was?) good as gold, then by extension, so is bitcoin. Sure it will be a easier to swallow once it gets fully recognised by the banking system, and is good for paying taxes etc but patience my children, we can't really expect that at this early stage in the game. As the wealth transfer progresses, these things will come to pass.
So this thread, is absolutely way off the mark. China hasn't *been betrayed* that is just typical western arrogance. Toake a dose in humility, China is once again pwning the rest of the world.
China is and always has been smart. China knows exactly what is going on. I don't see any news stories about how China doesn't have enough gold, is running the presses or is at risk of hyperinflation. Ask yourself why that is.
(Yeah i'm long. Wish I was longer).
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Not totally unpredictable
On the upside, mining cost projection limited how high the price can go (If mining is too cheap, then all the people who want to buy bitcoin will go mining, thus no one will buy bitcoin from market). The frenzy we saw this year is caused by the rising cost and difficulty of mining since ASIC enter the mining industry
On the down side, it is also mining cost limited how low the price can go. Lots of money have already been invested into mining, the cost is already there, miners will refuse to sell the coin under the cost, and that will dramatically reduce the daily coin supply once the price drop below mining cost. At that stage, many people would like to buy instead of mine, thus create support on exchange
Since there are so many fiat money out there, and bitcoin is new and interesting, some rich kids will just throw some millions of dollar in the game (like twins). If you consider this is a virtual gold mining game in cyberspace, there are plenty of kids ready to play the game
Historically, all the bubbles are caused by government printing too much money, and this is exactly the case now, with 2.8 billion dollars printed everyday, everything's price will be in a bubble very soon
Oh, and is any of this freshly printed base money finding its way into your pockets, or does it seem more to you that is being used as a hand out to the ultra wealthy who had great big holes blown out of their notional wealth as the housing derivatives market collapsed in 2008? Also, the thing with the miners is irrelevant. The fact is that there are 12 millions infinitely dividable units of account in the Bitcoin universe right now with the potential for being as valuable as thin air, if the collective human mind really wanted to see it that way. I think you are right. I have been convinced for some time now the reason we aren't seeing inflation, is that there is no 'new money' all thats happening is there is a massive transfer of debt from the banks to the govt. The great unwinding. Rinse and repeat... |
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According to wikip. A tally (or tally stick) was an ancient memory aid device used to record and document numbers, quantities, or even messages. Tally sticks first appear as animal bones carved with notches, in the Upper Paleolithic; a notable example is the Ishango Bone. Historical reference is made by Pliny the Elder (AD 23–79) about the best wood to use for tallies, and by Marco Polo (1254–1324) who mentions the use of the tally in China. Tallies have been used for numerous purposes such as messaging and scheduling, and especially in financial and legal transactions, to the point of being currency. The split tally was accepted as legal proof in medieval courts and the Napoleonic Code (1804) still makes reference to the tally stick in Article 1333.[4] Along the Danube and in Switzerland the tally was still used in the 20th century in rural economies. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tally_stickThoughts please?  |
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necro
this actually turned out to be fucking true. who made this chart?
Monday 16th Dec is 115 days after post date... /dramatic music |
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...snip...
I mean gambling wins are CGT-free, why should BTC trading be any different?
...snip...
According to the tax man trading isn't gambling  (Although spread betting is... and yet CFD's aren't  ) |
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IANAA but in the UK it will be fairly simple case of how many GBP appeared in your bank account.
If you bought hardware, that can be deducted, and you can probably (about 99% sure) deduct electricity costs.
If you don't sell them, no realised gain. So just stay under £10.9K a year. Or pay tax on anything above it if you *really* want to cash out more...
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Price went up a lot really fast. Market participants get nervous/take profits. Price goes down.
I'm glad you're back on this board. Improves the S/N somewhat  |
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I think it's funny when people say big investment funds wouldn't put people's money into bitcoin. These are the same people who bought greek debt and collateralised sub-prime mortage products. They are insane and they have trillions.
qft! |
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I find it best to block everyone that doesn't share my world view, lest it hurts my fragile ego ...
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I always thought that tacit implication of crash, is that it goes down and stays down. At least for some period of time.
$32 that felt like a good hard crash. Long slide right down to 2. Months of pain.
$266 also probably a crash, but stabilisation in the $80-100 didn't feel quite so hard to bear. Didn't last quite so long either, generally bullish throughout the period.
The activity up to $1300 seemed more like volatility, which has to be expected in a market making such outsized moves.
Most recently the dip to ~$580 was the most serious, but the recovery so soon and so much means to me, I wouldn't say its a crash. I think it would have to go at least that low (because if it doesn't then its just movement inside a trading range, albeit a big one!) and it needs to carry on sliding afterwards, or at least not go up.
All these downward moves that don't stick, maybe that means that we are entering a serious adoption phase where an awful lot of money has to come into the market before stabilising. I don't see otherwise why such deep dips are being bought up so convincingly.
I remember the move from 32 to 266. It was quite incredible what was happening, in the sense that you really could not believe it was possible. I wonder if the same thing is going to happen again. I think the first run up a combination of naive buyers (early adopters, just getting cash in, combined with the volume of money that was due to be come into the market, combined with all the holders seeing big but not life changing returns, and so having the composure to be able to hold.
This next leg up, if its savvy investors (and the amounts of money involved would suggest that) then they aren't just going to pile in, they are going to try and get the best price, waiting, perhaps even trying to move the market a little here and there. Combined with the fact that some early adopters are now sat on serious gains, easy to shake people out because they are happy to take the money and run - and more power to them, they've done better than many people can ever expect to do investing in a lifetime.
These conditions are perfect to generate the kind of volatility we are seeing. Ultimately though, I think this 'next phase' of big money has to enter the market somehow and thats why we are seeing this constant buying pressure, regardless of how deep the intermittent selloffs go. The question is how much money has yet to come in, and where we will be when the dust settles.
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I'm enjoying the breather, I might get 3 BTC from my single instead of 2 A 30% difficulty adjustment increase is a breather? Me and my big mouth eh |
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Me again!
How convinced are you btc will fail? How can you be sure?
If there is a nonzero chance if something happening then it is possible for you to figure out ev (which you can adjust to fit your bias)
I'm not sure what set of circumstances gives you an outcome where the best (most rational) action us not to buy any btc? How do you come to the conclusion that there is zero risk holding no btc?
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This weekend was the first time I met a person who knew about bitcoin that I hadn't told. The subject came up, and he snorted with derision "hah, you're not into that bitcoin are you" I chuckled inside, his wife didn't seem quite so cocksure when she learned I picked a few up back when it was a dollar.  I'd say there is a way to go yet... |
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Yep, it looks familiar. This is the 2011 chart that people were posting when bitcoin fell from 29$ to ~2$.
No no, its the one they posted at $266! They were definitely right that time... |
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You should treat water as the precious and very limited resource that it is. You should do your moral part as someone who lucked out in the lottery of life and try not only to not be wasteful of water, but to help those without it. Naturally you don't, you're a self-righteous scumbag who feels entitled to things simply because of a luck of the draw.
Yo dawg' looks like you confusin' sense of entitlement with acceptin' of dealt hand. Why don't you toss around a few more insults, show us exactly how perfect *your* morality is... |
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there is your 911 porsche haha good spot! Best TA ever |
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You just earned my respect (not that you need it but well...)
Nice of you to say, I'm honestly truly just looking out for other people, maybe I'm wrong. Who knows. I think mostly everybody on here is the little guy, I like to see the little guy do well. Reason why I don't own Bitcoins is because I don't have enough money to buy a quantity that makes me excited about this whole thing. Let alone not being able to buy because of the country I live in (few are the people who own Bitcoins here and its difficult to buy it from an online platform).
I started with $100, its all I could afford at the time and all I felt I could risk. The biggest risk I think today is having no BTC if it goes mainstream. YMMV. |
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For some reason, according to this chart, the bitcoin network hashrate is having major fluctuations and it appears as it is losing its exponential growth: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.pngWhy is that? Some big pool is having issues lately? KNC stopped shipping? Don't worry they will be shipping 2.5 PH/s+ pretty soon again. BFL also cleared their backlog... I'm enjoying the breather, I might get 3 BTC from my single instead of 2 |
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