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2101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 02, 2016, 12:03:56 AM
I opened a big leveraged short at 394.  I don't see how things are going to go up until the block size debate is resolved.  Or at the very least there is no longer a looming threat of a hard fork.  

This isn't JUST a hard for but a reshuffling of the powers that be in core who are being paid by a private company to fund bitcoin (imo this entire debacle can be traced back to the foundation going belly up on funding development).

Until the two camps are united, core compromises on 2mb blocks or everyone in the community (exchanges etc) change their mind I see the drift downward as inevitable.

I do live in eternal fear of core announcing 2mb blocks and losing it all.  But I'm betting that if they haven't done it yet they aren't going to until hard fork is inevitable.



core is divided in itself. some part of it including gmax and luke will eventually stay at 1MB even after a successful 2MB fork and do their own thing. obv they still will call themselves "bitcoin" no matter how tiny their marketshare will be. one other part (and i think the by far bigger) will simply be pragmatic and switch to 2MB and thats it.
2102  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Wondering out loud: Which should Chinese miners support - Core, Classic or another? on: February 01, 2016, 05:07:39 PM
Besides a few payment processors, any evidence to support such claims?

afaik from those pools, exchanges, payment processors that went public pretty much all supported 2MB. the bitcoin-economy seems to be pretty decided on that matter. i obv wont go and search for every statement, i remember a dicussion at #bitcoin-dev where core devs also agreed that the economy seems to be against them. they blamed it on wrong communications etc.
or in other words, name important players of the bitcoin economy which publicly declared that they wanna keep 1MB. you wont find any.

As far as I can tell most users are divided and evidenced by the fact that bitcointalk.org and r/bitcoin have much more activity than other subreddits and forums there is some slight evidence that there are more in favor or Core's proposal.

to take the activity of btct and r/bitcoin as evidence is a non-argument as its obv that the community has a big lag in switching the places were everybody meets. a much better argument is indeed to look what actually happens on those sites! reddit is a perfect example, whenever a 2MB proposal made it through censorship a few hours it was massively upvoted. especially before r/btc came into play and took away some of its users. so as long as everybody was forced to use r/bitcoin 2MB had HUGE support. at least as long as you take upvotes into account.

here at btct is seems similar, imo 2MB is favorised big time. lets try a survey on that matter. i am willing to bet 1BTC that 2MB will be in big favor...

Looks like most of the payment processors genuinely support Classic and larger blocks but that makes perfect sense being that they principally care about bitcoin being a payment rails system and would benefit if nodes dropped off and where only maintained by them and exchanges.

PP play an important part in the economy, to just wipe them away as unimportant seems a bad idea.

Exchanges appear split but we haven't heard from all of them.

split? afaik not one exchange seems to favor 1MB. we had several announcements an they all declared to welcome 2MB.

As far as large investors are concerned , Classic has a few, but most appear to support core's proposal. (Keep in mind that individuals like Core Dev's , theymos, ect... have a ton of coins)

to look just for "large investors" seems incomplete thinking to me. why not go one step further and ask "what do stakeholders want?" we can only guess about that, but as i see the support in the community be it reddit, btct, blogs etc i see (like i said) the community wants 2MB.
that impression is further strengthened as i read core developers complain that they are not willing to give in to technical inferior solutions just because the majority of the community wants that. that pretty much showed to me that the are aware of to be the minority, but dont wanna let the "mob" rule...


Nodes and mining pools clearly support Core
 

they have no choice to support 2MB yet.

A majority of all bitcoin developers support the Core Scalability proposal.  https://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-core/capacity-increases

yes, they do. but have you been in contact with some of the devs surrounding core lately? many of them have absolutely no problem going with 2MB in case classic will gain majority. they seem much more pragmatic and less ideologized than the die hard group. it seems that basically gmax, luke and one or two others are the reason for this big clash. imo the roadmap is great. go for it! but add 2MB and everybody is happy again.

2103  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Wondering out loud: Which should Chinese miners support - Core, Classic or another? on: February 01, 2016, 04:12:59 PM
Both coins will soon get worthless, since people can't use them.  Hashpower is not the same as users or nodes.

correct. nevertheless thats not the situation we have at the moment. its not 80% hashpower against the rest of the community.

in fact its more like some part of core stands against pretty much everyone else in the bitcoin universe.

miners are in favor of 2MB.

community/users are in favor of 2MB. (i would estimate 80/20 in favor of 2MB)

bitcoin services are in favor of 2MB. that means stamp, coinbase, blockchain.org, bitpay, etc etc

so its basically a minor group of devs against everyone else. and you can also see that from those core devs only a few are really decidedly against 2MB, most of them just try to avoid conflict and go with the others. if you watch closely you will find that gmax and luke are the main force behind the neglectance and stubbornness.

so its basically 20% of the community plus maybe 5 devs that try to force their will on everyone else.
2104  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2016, 12:31:37 AM

this bitcoin coldwar is heating up and may soon escalate with all dirty tricks including ddos, hacks and mass media interviews etc

i suggest 50% bitcoin /  50% altcoins as hedge

Alts are done pumping. They're dropping faster than Bitcoin.

dont think so, if bitcoin goes 200$ expect altcoins to tripple in value against btc
2105  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 01, 2016, 12:27:54 AM

this bitcoin coldwar is heating up and may soon escalate with all dirty tricks including ddos, hacks and mass media interviews etc

i suggest 50% bitcoin /  50% altcoins as hedge
2106  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2016, 12:48:52 AM

i like
2107  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 31, 2016, 12:40:52 AM
the price is really low right now and i think that it will have to start rising in the near future, i hope i am right


or it's the beginning of the next bear cycle which would depress a lot of people here.

i am still long, but i am pissed

ImI, in creation where one's nature neither honors nor forgives.
ImI, one say to the other, no man sees my face and lives.


i dont fully understand, but i kinda like it  Grin
2108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 30, 2016, 11:03:44 PM
the price is really low right now and i think that it will have to start rising in the near future, i hope i am right


or it's the beginning of the next bear cycle which would depress a lot of people here.

i am still long, but i am pissed about the lack of professionalism in the development circles. both sides seem to behave like 16yo nerd kiddies.

core has also its immature folks like luke etc
2109  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2016, 11:36:14 PM
Maybe Peter Todd isn't actually the vermin his online reputation would suggest.

 Grin

The Blockchain stunt to promote RBF was still a shitty thing to do.
RBF is a very good solution. There must be competition for blockchain inclusion. You can offer your own idea. If you can't, then stfu.

the question is: does there have to be now competition or sometime in the future? at the moment with the block reward its not that big of an issue to have lower fee-income.
It is high time. We have 5 months to find AND implement solution!

why? reward will be 12.5 that's still a big factor higher then any fee market could gather at the moment.

edit: at the moment we are still in the early stages of bitcoin, where adoption is all that matters. so its beneficial imo to have lower fees. network effect drags on and at a later stage you can easily have a fee market.
2110  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2016, 10:48:02 PM
Maybe Peter Todd isn't actually the vermin his online reputation would suggest.

 Grin

The Blockchain stunt to promote RBF was still a shitty thing to do.
RBF is a very good solution. There must be competition for blockchain inclusion. You can offer your own idea. If you can't, then stfu.

the question is: does there have to be now competition or sometime in the future? at the moment with the block reward its not that big of an issue to have lower fee-income.
2111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2016, 12:44:47 PM

allright, i am ready
2112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2016, 02:30:30 AM

which bitcoin? bitcoin core? bitcoin classic? bitcoin freedom? bitcoin xyz? bitcoin zxy?

before you know we will have so many different versions you better start keeping track of them.
2113  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: January 29, 2016, 12:22:26 AM

auch wenn es nicht gerne gesehen wird, aber eth ist für mich durchaus ein safe-heaven im moment. bei einem absturz könnte eth zum btc weiter zulegen.
2114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 29, 2016, 12:18:14 AM

tbh with all this forking-crap i expected bitcoin to be sub 300$ anytime soon. that we are still around 380$ really surprises me. either i am ahead of the market or i am wrong by the market.


true. It's a total fuck up mess. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we end up at 200$ again...

I guess the reason why we are still so high is that most people from outside have no idea what is really going on. The further the price falls the more people will look into it and start understanding the mess.
If this keeps on going like this Bitcoin is really not that robust and could get thrown back a couple years...


I mean the question is simple: 1, 2 or even more MB and people already start a civil war. It's plain stupid.

indeed, imagine 2-3 months from now we could have 2 or even three "Bitcoin" selling itself as the original.

i think what is maybe still stabilizing the market could be optimists who expect a run-up after the scaling is solved.
2115  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2016, 11:57:00 PM

tbh with all this forking-crap i expected bitcoin to be sub 300$ anytime soon. that we are still around 380$ really surprises me. either i am ahead of the market or i am wrong by the market.
2116  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: January 28, 2016, 11:29:43 PM

 Grin
2117  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 28, 2016, 11:02:46 PM
Looks like segwit will need to be hard forked. That should finally bring this issue to a close.

why? just combine it with a 2MB hardfork and everybody is happy.
2118  Local / Trading und Spekulation / Re: Der Aktuelle Kursverlauf on: January 27, 2016, 09:55:41 PM
Ich denke das halving ist schon im aktuellen Preis berücksichtigt.

Hat einer schonmal drüber nachgedacht das evtl das nächste halving ein Grund sein könnte das die ganze Kiste den Bach runter geht?
Halving> Mining lohnt sich nicht mehr. Weltweit. Selbst mit besserer Hardware. > Nachfrage nimmt ab. Kurs Rutsch. Ende aus fertig...

Wäre das auch möglich?


nein.
2119  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 27, 2016, 12:32:07 AM

Agreed, but every day without an inch of movement from Blockstream, increases the possibility. The fact that they start bringing up PoW changes when backed into a corner gives even more weight to the idea that they would rather go to war than compromise to 2MB.

it shows lack of reason. miners seem to be much more reasonable at the moment and thats in a way how bitcoin was intended anyways. its the miners (and users) who decide where to go.
2120  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN] BitNet VpnCoin | P2P Lottery|AES|Domain&Website |Free VPN|Voice&video call on: January 27, 2016, 12:10:16 AM

hi all,

whats the big deal about this coin?
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