The Bitcoin community is feeling great about BIP91 locking in. Amid the celebration, however, are voices of doubt asking about some extreme scenarios. In this article, I’m going to lay out the various crazy scenarios that may happen now that BIP91 is locked in.

So if the initial segwit is activated, does this mean that things will move faster and cheaper for everyone?

Although well over 80 percent of hash power has signaled bit 4 for BIP 91 lock in, this doesn’t actually guarantee anything. Most importantly, it doesn’t in itself mean that these miners will signal bit 1 for SegWit.

Indeed, so far, most miners don’t. Currently, the proportion of miners signaling bit 1 is still far lower than BIP 91 activation would suggest. It is even lower than 50 percent.

Moreover, BIP 91 will probably be enforced by hardly any economically relevant nodes; that is, nodes operated by users that accept bitcoins as payment. Almost no Bitcoin users on the network recognize BIP 91 or its bit 4 signaling at all, and will therefore continue to accept blocks with or without bit 1.

Si l’on sait que les banquiers, les comptables ou encore les casinos sont des délateurs zélés, il y a aussi de nouveaux acteurs comme les établissements de paiement comme Compte Nickel (qui a fait tout de même plus de 5 100 délations), mais aussi les établissements de monnaie électronique comme les start-ups de la Fintech type Lemon Way ou les cagnottes en ligne, sans oublier les sites de financement participatif (crowdfunding).

En clair, sur presque 65 000 dénonciations, il y a seulement 448 dossiers relevant de la justice, alors franchement, disons-le, les déclarations Tracfin sont faites dans deux cas : pour se couvrir quand on ne comprend rien ou que réfléchir est trop difficile (et je sais de quoi je parle comme ancien banquier), soit tout simplement pour emmerder un client pénible, ou pour assouvir quelques jalousies.

Almost no Bitcoin users on the network recognize BIP 91 or its bit 4 signaling at all, and will therefore continue to accept blocks with or without bit 1.

BIP 91 will, instead, be enforced by hash power alone. This in turn means that a majority of miners (by hash power) could back out of BIP 91 with little more than reputational damage. They could continue to mine blocks that do not signal bit 1, even after BIP 91 activates in a few days.

BIP-91 lock-in does not guarantee segwit will be activated unless BIP-91 is actually enforced.

Soft-forks are ultimately enforced by users, not miners, and right now practically no users are running BIP-91 enforcing nodes like segsignal. So a majority of miners can reneg on BIP-91, fail to activate segwit, and get away without any long-term¹ consequences because the BIP-91 invalid blocks they would be producing are considered to be perfectly valid by the vast majority of users' nodes.

But SegWit is not certain. In fact, on a technical level, SegWit is not any closer to activation at all.

...

Almost no Bitcoin users on the network recognize BIP 91 or its bit 4 signaling at all, and will therefore continue to accept blocks with or without bit 1.

then and only then will BIP 148 become irrelevant.

The BIP91 phases :

A - 336 block Signalling phase
B - Lock-in period
C - 336 block grace period
D - Enforcement -- the rejection of non-SegWit blocks until BIP9/BIP141 locks in and activates SegWit on regular Core nodes

We just finished the Lock-in phase, so we need to wait for another few days to see if the regular nodes will follow suit. ^hmm^

The bip91 has been locked in. However, miners still need to come to a concensus on the HF part. After SW is activated, there's nothing to prevent the miners switching back to core version with signal 1. Only around 80% signed NYA and nobody knows whether anyone will quit.

Keep monitoring signal 4 may help to check who switched back to core version, but after SW is activated false signal 4 needs only a trivial patch on core version.

Should be to work for some time...

Pfff