WTF?? $38 to $39 in one minute?  |
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I think this rally is making money for a lot of people, rather than just a few people like in June 2011, not to say that many trigger-happy early adopters, who can liquidate tens of thousands without any hesitation, are mostly out of the game. So once a crash comes, a lot of people will be in a comfortable position to cash out and reinvest, including bears who can't wait to get back in, obviously the majority of late buyers will get burned, but if let's say, the price plunged 60% to like $15-19, the buying pressure coming in from people reinvesting part of their profits may well be enough to prop the price up, a further plunge to below $10$, especially $2 is unlikely to happen, though the chance is not negligibly small, my current estimation of the "absolute bottom" is somewhere around $7-$8.
Your thoughts?
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i'm much more interested in comparing Bitcoin asymptotic growth to this:  Does this graph mean what I think it does. If it does then it's much worse than I thought and my opinion wasn't that conservative to begin with ... wtf (So I am asking have the amount of dollars in circulation tripled since 2008? :|) it was $800B back then. it's almost quadrupled since. Where do you think Bitcoin is in this curve? Bitcoin is the vertical part; except you need to color it green. Price quadrupling in two years? Not satisified.  |
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i'm much more interested in comparing Bitcoin asymptotic growth to this: Does this graph mean what I think it does. If it does then it's much worse than I thought and my opinion wasn't that conservative to begin with ... wtf (So I am asking have the amount of dollars in circulation tripled since 2008? :|) it was $800B back then. it's almost quadrupled since. Where do you think Bitcoin is in this curve? |
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Slow down for a while please.........it's like 5 orgasms in an hour.
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Yup, someone made a video! Fuck all that SHA256, ECDSA, 6 confirmations, it's a video we have you know? It's a video with 5 replies so it must be true! SELL, SELL, SELL EVERYTHING!!! |
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Why has the whales changed their strategy? I don't see a wall/brake yet, do they decide to allow the bubble to form?
Walls been used just to play a stress/psychological game on bears! It seems they are done buying all they needed and now we are open to a new stage of unclear possibilities. It seems to me that Walls wouldn't show again under 40$ "at least for the coming 3 days". I think it's one stone three birds, the ask wall/strategy can be used to cool off the market, stress the bears to sell to them cheaper, and gives the hype enough time to propagate, that's why I am surprised I have not seen one yet, actually someone puts up a buy wall instead. What if BTC price can now easily rally to 100$? If you consider that, will you still be surprised from the current market behaviour? I don't doubt it, but if that's the case, why don't they accumulate more from the bearish weaklings right now? Or have they all been killed, that they want to let in some more lunch money and pension investors? Stage1: Buy High and drive it higher Stage2: Sell Higher and drive it low Stage3: Buy lower than Stage2 "just a bit higher than stage1" and drive it higher Stage4: Sell higher than Stage3 and drive it lower Stage5: Buy lower than stage4 "just a bit higher than stage3" and drive it higher At the moment of this writing we are being drived higher toward 40$. Does that make any sense? I completely agree, in fact something similar goes through my mind immediately after I made the last post. |
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Why has the whales changed their strategy? I don't see a wall/brake yet, do they decide to allow the bubble to form?
Walls been used just to play a stress/psychological game on bears! It seems they are done buying all they needed and now we are open to a new stage of unclear possibilities. It seems to me that Walls wouldn't show again under 40$ "at least for the coming 3 days". I think it's one stone three birds, the ask wall/strategy can be used to cool off the market, stress the bears to sell to them cheaper, and gives the hype enough time to propagate, that's why I am surprised I have not seen one yet, actually someone puts up a buy wall instead. What if BTC price can now easily rally to 100$? If you consider that, will you still be surprised from the current market behaviour? I don't doubt it, but if that's the case, why don't they accumulate more from the bearish weaklings right now? Or have they all been killed, that they want to let in some more lunch money and pension investors? |
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Why has the whales changed their strategy? I don't see a wall/brake yet, do they decide to allow the bubble to form?
Walls been used just to play a stress/psychological game on bears! It seems they are done buying all they needed and now we are open to a new stage of unclear possibilities. It seems to me that Walls wouldn't show again under 40$ "at least for the coming 3 days". I think it's one stone three birds, the ask wall/strategy can be used to cool off the market, stress the bears to sell to them cheaper, and gives the hype enough time to propagate, that's why I am surprised I have not seen one yet, actually someone puts up a buy wall instead. |
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Why has the whales changed their strategy? I don't see a wall/brake yet, do they decide to allow the bubble to form?
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It really is moving up with greater "ease", the aftershock effect of the $32 dambusting is obvious, maybe this ramp is slowly turning into a bubble/rocket?
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Seriously though, now would be a great time for somebody with tens of thousand to exit this market.
They did, at $19, $21, $26, $31, and did I mention $26? They tried to pull it off twice. |
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No, the price meltdown could be attributed to two reasons:
1.The price was already quite low, so a bunch of manipulators could corner the market, and the low liquidity led to high volatility, which caused more panic.
2. There were still some early adopters who obtained a ridiculous amount of bitcoins at ridiculously low prices around.
Regarding the Bitfinex/Bitcoinica security issue: bitcoin itself is really simple to secure(as in "nearly 100% secure"), you just need to follow a certain procedure, there is no rocket science here.
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However you don't take into account the fact that the people who invested when we were at $10 or $20 have a huge margin before they have any reason to worry as the price is at $35.
Yes, but they can panic in advance, seeing the price approaching their buy-in level. Not sure that I agree with oak that flashcrash is not possible anymore - Gox is bigger that in 2011, but order book is still thin at only about 100k coins to go to $20, so it takes 2.5 million of profit taking for a significant dip. The 2011 crash took about a month to plunge the price under $15, even let's just say, we now have 1/10 of that much time--3 days, would that not be enough for you? Not to say the early adopters did not care that much about at what price they cash out--they got the bitcoins for cents. |
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Isn't it a bit over the top to call USD the authoritative price? The exchange is in Japan, and it is entirely plausible that someday the market of another currency becomes even larger than that of USD, it's better to trade USD as yet another currency. Besides, it may be even more useful to display the last price in all currencies-a user may trade in many different currencies.
The US American user base of bitcoin is very large, I'd guess if you go by trade volume a majority of bitcoin users are US Americans. Something like 90% of my customers are US Americans. I'm not from the states myself, but using the USD exchange rate as the key value indicator of bitcoin seems logical to me. Showing the latest price in all currencies could definitely be helpful in a number of use cases, especially since you don't need to be reside in a certain nation to trade in its market--one advantage of bitcoin, it's also a bit more politically correct. Actually I am yet to figure out the connection between different markets, before $35 was broken I saw ask orders of exactly the same sizes popping up in USD/EUR/GBP markets, what was happening?  |
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Either way, it should be the same for the last, high, low, and weighted average. It looks ridiculous and illogical to see the Last being higher than the High.
I'd go as far as to say that it damages the image of Mt. Gox for new users. Any investor looks at that and goes, "They can't even get their ticker right??"
Gox falls short in many ways, you can't even make a stop loss order with their platform. Why it is so dominant can only be attributed to the fact that it is probably the only exchange today which you can entrust with millions of dollars of money. |
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I can see some foolish investor taking his house mortgage or whatever and go all-in on btc at some price like $40. Such an idiot would definitely panic if the price goes down to $39, so it's only a matter of time before there's enough people with mental stop-losses set within 10% of the current price, who would cash out on the first significant dip in price. So basically the longer the price steadily climbs up, the more there will be people who have risked and invested what they can't afford to lose, and they will panic, and I don't know, bring the price down to like $25!  If that happened, I doubt if bitcoin would have totally gone mainstream already.  What I intend to say is this:Bulls have already profited massively from the current rally, and a bitcoin crash would by no means be a "flash crash", it's going to take days, if not months, to fully pan out, there would be enough time for a bull to comfortably recoup his investment and make a handsome ,though not maximized profit, before reinvesting a part of his profits in bitcoin, if it's not a "spot the top or lose everything" scenario, why should they panic? |
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Has anybody else thought about this question--for a crash to happen, you have to get people to panic, but why should people panic?
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just seen a last trade price of $36 !! whats going on on mt gox today its going crazy
I will explain again in place of MagicalTux before he go to your house with a shotgun tired of explaining this all the time: the last price reflects the last price in ANY currency in mtgox (converted to USD), so if someone crazy buy 1 BTC for 1000 EUR you will see a last price of 1300 USD Haha - so much easier if he could just always put the last price only for USD, since this is the authorative price. Then visitors could have the option of selecting 'any currency' over this if they wanted to. Too bad he doesn't look at this as the most logical thing to do. Nobody would complain about that, as it is now, everybody complains. Isn't it a bit over the top to call USD the authoritative price? The exchange is in Japan, and it is entirely plausible that someday the market of another currency becomes even larger than that of USD, it's better to trade USD as yet another currency. Besides, it may be even more useful to display the last price in all currencies-a user may trade in many different currencies. |
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