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2161  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 03, 2013, 02:01:52 AM
No facts to back this up this is purely a guess on my part. I know I am going to hear a lot of shit about this post, but this is what my gut tells me.
A hand full of people are pushing the market up slowly to make it more believable.

 

Not unlikely, we even have probably one of these guys in this thread!
2162  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where are all the bitcoins? on: March 03, 2013, 12:56:53 AM
1. People do trade in large sum, just not everyday.
2. Non-exchange bitcoin distributing organizations such as Bitinstant, Coinbase, Tangible Cryptography etc, are holding a large portion of it.
3. The early adopters have mostly cashed out http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address= , many of the remaining big holders got them at n-dollar range, I think at least they are not seeing the profit margin they want to see yet.
2163  Economy / Speculation / Re: You guys gonna become paranoid about Ripple on: March 03, 2013, 12:37:46 AM
Even if they did, their money would hardly matter.
2164  Economy / Speculation / Re: proudhon on: March 03, 2013, 12:12:35 AM
This is what is really interesting, it's almost like after June 2011 his account got hacked.

Nah. The bubble popping was traumatizing for him. Now he just wanders around senselessly crying wolf.

I would not go trolling and mocking other people after getting traumatized.

I'm not trolling or mocking him. I'm pointing out a fact. He's been crying wolf for so long that anyone who might have given his words some meaning at one point certainly should have learned to ignore him by now.

This is unfortunate, because he might have something valuable to say. My point is, he's lost all credibility. Anyone who listened to him at $13 would have missed out on a massive opportunity.

I was talking about HIM, not you.
2165  Economy / Speculation / Re: proudhon on: March 02, 2013, 04:03:13 PM
This is what is really interesting, it's almost like after June 2011 his account got hacked.

Nah. The bubble popping was traumatizing for him. Now he just wanders around senselessly crying wolf.

I would not go trolling and mocking other people after getting traumatized.
2166  Economy / Speculation / Re: proudhon on: March 02, 2013, 03:39:19 PM
The case for bitcoin is pretty compelling, and the more people who know about it and appreciate its value, the higher the price will go.  That's something that's really hard to predict, and it mitigates my concerns that this is a bubble.

Sure, but I think it's inevitable that media exposure will get much wider than it is now, and when you have millions of people interested in bitcoin, then even if half of the entire bitcoin supply were on the market, I think the price would still go up considerably.  I think it's likely that we'll reach that point.

This is kind of what I'm beginning to think is going on.  We've all just underestimated the exposure and the interest people have in bitcoin.  Interest may be increasing more than the community thought a few weeks ago, and, as a result, the population of buyers has increased sufficiently relative to the supply.  In which case, this isn't a speculative bubble.

Well, on the bright side, now it's official, bitcoin is a currency.  Next up, Amazon.

Based on an average 12% increase in the exchange rate every difficulty (which, BTW, I actually think is overly optimistic by quite a lot) we'll reach $10 sometime in August and $100 sometime in March 2012.

This is what is really interesting, it's almost like after June 2011 his account got hacked.
2167  Economy / Speculation / Re: proudhon on: March 02, 2013, 09:49:19 AM
And what about this gem:

Ok.

Quote
Dear Jim,

Do you want to be able to have $100 worth of purchasing power today turn into $75 worth of purchasing power tomorrow?  Now there's a somewhat easy way - Bitcoin!  Sign up for a Dwolla account, then begin the week or more process of transferring money from your bank to Dwolla and finally to MtGox.  Then buy bitcoins on MtGox.  It's so easy!  Next, wait till the next day and almost magically (note: sometimes it can take a few days for the real magic to happen) the purchasing power of your bitcoins will be less than the purchasing power of the dollars you sent to MtGox.  For more information go to bitcoin.org and mtgox.com.  I hope you'll join the revolution!

Proudhon

Yeah.

You know that when Jim Rogers buys he buys heavy and holds for multiple decades right?

No, I didn't know that.  I've fixed my letter:

Quote
Dear Jim,

Do you want to be able to have $100 worth of purchasing power today evaporate completely or almost completely in a few years?  Now there's a somewhat easy way - Bitcoin!  Sign up for a Dwolla account, then begin the week or more process of transferring money from your bank to Dwolla and finally to MtGox.  Then buy bitcoins on MtGox.  It's so easy!  Next, wait a few years and almost magically the purchasing power of your bitcoins will be 10% (probably even less) of the purchasing power of the dollars you sent to MtGox.  For more information go to bitcoin.org and mtgox.com.  I hope you'll join the revolution!

Proudhon
2168  Economy / Speculation / Re: proudhon on: March 02, 2013, 09:40:03 AM
And here he is patting Nagle's back:


Bitcoin, last 5 months, on log scale. Brown line is 30 day trailing moving average.

The long, slow slide is right on track. It's been all downhill for 5 months now, and the trend is consistent  Currently, the price is cut in half every 5-6 weeks.

Every once in a while, there's a big drop, and then the price recovers. But it never recovers all the way.

Admitting you are right a few months ago has served me well.  Thankfully there have been enough bag holders resisting the obvious.

And here is more of that:

To answer the question in the thread title...we're going all the way down.  There simply is no reason for bitcoins to be worth more than a $1, no reason at all.  Nagle has been right.  When a bubble pops, it pops all the way, and in the case of bitcoin, there's no reason for a legitimate recovery on the horizon.
2169  Economy / Speculation / Re: proudhon on: March 02, 2013, 09:38:01 AM
I am gonna quote a few more from the dark days of Nov.2011, to make sure we all remember the craziness back then, here they are

Here we go again.

it looks to me like we slowly climb to 3.xx dollars Aaaaannnd PooF it falls, we slowly climb to 3.xx dollars Aaaaannnd PooF it gone,

this leads me to believe 1 by 1 the miners that were hording their coins see 3.xx$ as a good price to jump ship.

we will portly see this happen many times for the next few months.... 3.12 Aaaand Poof it falls.

$2 will be the new $3 soon enough.

you have been around since april, all posts I saw from you rallying against bitcoin. either you are really really bored or you have missed the opportunity to buy when prices were low and now are angry about that and want price to drop so you can buy in at the low price you missed before. or did you sell out too early?

at what price will you change strategy? at what price will you buy lots of bitcoins and start rallying pro btc?

if my theory is wrong please let me know why you keep on posting against bitcoin. I am sure a lot of other people are wondering, too.


I'm just making observations and hanging around to watch this thing die out.
2170  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 02, 2013, 03:08:47 AM
Well, anyway, weekend dip or weekend rise, a bit of fun is always fitting for a weekend. Cheesy
2171  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 02, 2013, 02:44:36 AM
I think we can offically call it "the fall of yet another manipulator wannabe". Wink

I don't think so. Was just an actual seller. He had plenty of opportunity to pull his wall manually if he wanted.

Consider that we had seen someone owning 15K BTC yet have to ask people on chatboard about how to sell them properly....
2172  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 02, 2013, 02:40:17 AM
I think we can offically call it "the fall of yet another manipulator wannabe". Wink
2173  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 02, 2013, 02:38:16 AM
Do you guys see that!? Cheesy
2174  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 02, 2013, 02:31:34 AM

Sell pressure? OMG, look at that massive drop of....4000BTCs!! How impressive!! Tongue

A 5% drop does not indicate selling pressure?  

Whatever...

I think it will depend on if we see it pan out past the "one bear trying to manipulate but gonna fail" territory as to whether or not it's real sell pressure.

Pressure is force per surface area, force is mass times acceleration, so the rate of drop doesn't determine the pressure alone, you get to have some mass, so by definition, this pressure is quite low. Tongue

I think it's just one guy's attempt to pick up some cheap coins, not even sure if it could be successful without backfiring.
2175  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 02, 2013, 02:20:09 AM
Look the 10k sell walls, it's just one guy, he had several 2k ask walls and then consolidated them into a 10k one and a 3k one. Typical weekend stuff

I doubt it could even be granted the title of "weekend dip", consider the volume and price movement of our past ones.
2176  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 02, 2013, 02:18:47 AM
Can $32.11 hold under this sell pressure?

Time to man up Bitcoin.

Sell pressure? OMG, look at that massive drop of....4000BTCs!! How impressive!! Tongue
2177  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 02, 2013, 01:13:43 AM
3000btc away from new all time high

that's $90,000 federal reserve toilet tissues

 Toilet tissues? Toilet tissues have more intrinsic value, you can't wipe your ass with greenbacks. Grin
2178  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 01, 2013, 03:34:46 PM
The page number goes down to 598!  Shocked Shocked CRASH!!! SELL! SELL! SELL!
2179  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: March 01, 2013, 03:25:00 PM
All right,if you really believe so much that history tells anything about future, then how long is this crash going to take? According to the history, it took 5 full months for the price to plunge from $31 to $2, that's an awful lot of time for me and my bullish friends to cash out, even 1/10 of that amount of time is way more than enough. So by the time we finish taking our profits, we could just spare maybe 1/3-1/5 of our profits to buy back those cheap coins at-only $2! Wow! Life looks so good if your plan really works out! Thank you lucif! Cheesy
2180  Economy / Speculation / Re: proudhon on: March 01, 2013, 11:55:25 AM



So, did you sell after all? If not I strongly suspect you were trying to be a reverse-prediction bull of some sort.
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