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2181  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2016, 09:12:39 PM

they should support both for a while, and then discontinue SHA2 once most miners are running SHA3 machines

The point is to threaten/injure the miners.
2182  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2016, 09:10:20 PM
So, did Bitcoin need to fork when they added the 1Mb limit? Just curious.

Technically, it could have.

In truth, the block size limit was 700-1000 times the size of blocks that were being mined at the time so it was not an issue.
2183  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2016, 09:06:39 PM

but as i keep saying, there is still time and it won't come to that...

Bags of time

2184  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2016, 06:35:38 PM
Actually, only storing, say, 5 years worth of data would certainly simplify things... Now there's a flamewar to start.

I could certainly see not storing blocks locally but retrieving them from the network as-needed.
2185  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 19, 2016, 05:54:50 PM

The real question is why miners aren't mining these transactions to get to the limit. Why are they issuing empty blocks, why don't they even care to change the 750kb parameter to 1mb etc etc. The obvious answer is because the fee incentives are too low, so why should they?


The obvious answer is because the lionshare of their income still comes from the block subsidy. That subsidy has to drop first. Which will happen in due time. Only then empty blocks will not be mined anymore.

The empty blocks is an entirely separate issue also. I believe there have been *some* empty blocks mined when transactions could have been included but the vast majority are mined because the miners are mining before they know which pending transactions are valid (and hence include none).
2186  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 19, 2016, 01:08:37 AM
That is a decent explanation regarding how you are attempting to represent what is going on accurately and without bias, but for some reason, even though you have been explaining in various posts, readers still seem to be a bit confused about what some of the indicators mean.

Can we click on chartbuddy and receive your various explanations concerning what the various numbers, scales, dots and charts represent in a kind of one stop shopping location?

Don't get me wrong, because I am not trying to bust your balls on any of this.  I think that you have been doing a great service to this thread with your creation and updates of chart buddy through the years... and by taking on such tasks, you are likely to receive various unwarranted and comments of non appreciation.

I did explain it at one point but it probably does need to go in the explanation link, probably with an explanation diagram.
2187  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 19, 2016, 01:01:47 AM
I am not attempting to accuse you of any purposeful misrepresentation, but I do understand that empty blocks are not being counted in the chart buddy's renditions of how full are the blocks on an hourly basis.  

Accordingly, leaving out blocks (whether a more accurate representation or not) could be the reason that blockchain.info is coming up with different numbers..  


I invite you to run the numbers yourself. If you'll notice the times when the red line agrees with the solid green level, those are times when there have not been empty blocks and they do not affect it at all.

Let me turn it around a bit. One of the complaints the small blockers have with BIP101 is that despite there being a 75% of 1000 requirement for BIP101 to activate, random chance would mean that that could be achieved with much less than 75% of the hashrate. This is true. Likewise, even if on daily average, blocks appear to be much less than 100% full, random chance can (and has started to) mean that at random times, the blocks *are* full and users experience congestion. One full block is not really all that big a deal but we are starting to see, two, three and even four full blocks in a row. That's potentially a confidence destroying poor user experience. This is happening now.

Bear in mind, we *don't* have RBF, we *don't* have Lightning Network and we *don't* have segwit. What we do have is a fairly straight-line log plot that showed this was coming and warnings from several people, ranging from 2-5 years ago that this would have to be addressed.
2188  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2016, 12:48:19 AM
All the other bigblockers are making better arguments than me. Maybe I should just shut up for a while. Carry on.

All of your arguments are equally specious ... and not just you, but all of them should learn some humility and know when to shut up.

Watch out everyone, Oscar Wilde in the house...
2189  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 19, 2016, 12:40:32 AM
This. They think scarcity alone will bring value (price appreciation) if it is done decentralized.


Think of it this way. Rather than that weird parcel analogy alexGR is using, 1mb blocks are like the traditional taxi system. Prices are regulated and supply is limited by a restrictive and expensive badge system. When you're wanting to get home and it's a big night out like new years eve, you can't get a taxi because everyone else wants one. A sane, free market system would bring more taxis out but you can't because the supply is limited and there is no way to adjust the supply.

Removing the block size limit is like Uber.

The genius part of Bitcoin is that is more than an engineering work, the design understands basic economic and psychological principles (game theory), and unite them in an environment, where everyone can join voluntary.

Yes. This is exactly what drew me to it.
2190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 18, 2016, 10:52:58 PM
Unless the block is full and yours happens to be amongst the lower fees *no matter what fee you actually attached* and *no matter what miners would be willing to include your transaction for*.

Now you are arguing that the market is broken because you can never be in the top 1500+ bidders (1500+ txs that go through)?

That's impossible.

No. I'm saying that with limited size blocks, there is no fee which guarantees you a place in the next block since others may be bidding higher than you. Even you have a fee of $5, if everyone else is at $5.01, you're out of luck, even if a miner really wanted your $5.


Quote
OK, what is "the fee"? I want numbers.

It would depend on what others are paying at a certain time. It's not fixed in time. That much is obvious.

Wait, I thought we were comparing to parcel delivery services. Which one does that?
2191  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 18, 2016, 10:30:22 PM
There's no entitlement that I can produce all kind of spam and they have to be included in one or a few blocks (for peanuts).

Guess what, there's no kind of requirement of that for miners either. Even with no block size limit at all. So moot point.


You pay the fee, you are in. In a timely manner.

Unless the block is full and yours happens to be amongst the lower fees *no matter what fee you actually attached* and *no matter what miners would be willing to include your transaction for*.

Go down the post office, pay first class for a parcel to your mother to arrive in time for her birthday then watch in amazement as she doesn't get her present and the post office guy explains "The guy over there wanted to pay more so we threw your parcel in the back of the storage room, LOL"

You pay the fee, you are in. In a timely manner.

OK, what is "the fee"? I want numbers.
2192  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 18, 2016, 10:18:30 PM
This means the protocol can accommodate an increase of an extra 53-58% in txs (and that includes dust and spam txs like the ones we have now).

This is faulty thinking. We will start to experience serious issues well before 100% and user experience issues even before that. Already several times we have had two full blocks in a row and possibly other times more that I don't recall.

It is not enough that transactions occur eventually, they should also happen in a timely manner.
2193  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 18, 2016, 09:32:14 PM
Do you really believe those chart buddy numbers?

So you're calling me a liar. Either

1)Prove it

2)Apologize.

3)Show the world that you're a man of no honor.
2194  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 18, 2016, 09:16:58 PM
maybe one has to subtract those blocks that are empty on purpose

Note that I still include the empty blocks for the red-line indicator so it's easy to see with and without that calculation.

The block fullness is actually fairly variable so the averages you get depend very much on your sampling time. Plus the number of blocks in an hour is also somewhat variable. You can have 4 blocks one hour for 98% full and then maybe 10 blocks another hour for an average of 40% full. The problem is, those 10 blocks at 40% don't really help the person who couldn't get their transaction on the chain in the 4-blocks-per-hour time period.

As always, the question has to be, "what am I looking to represent". A daily average might not present a useful number if you're wanting to know about user experience whereas an hourly can give a better insight as that's closer to the timescale for a typical Bitcoin transaction. It doesn't help that the daily average interstate speed was 50mph when an accident means you're stuck in non-moving traffic for an hour.

I haven't looked but transactions may be on a 24 hour cycle also. Low transaction volumes at certain times of the day would contribute to a low daily averages while high volume times may still be having problems that would indicate a need for remediation.

In summary, averages are tricky when it comes to interpretation and divining meaning. Which is why I included the per-block indicator dots.
2195  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: January 18, 2016, 09:08:39 PM
Do you really believe those chart buddy numbers?   I mean really, if you look at Blockchain.info, you get spikes between 45% and 75%, but currently, the average is around 60%.

I can give you the code and you can run this shit yourself. It's all really trivial calls and standard "how to calculate averages" stuff.
2196  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 18, 2016, 09:02:21 PM

Bitcoin port is 8333 and not 9333.

Correct. Entirely a typo and fixed now.
2197  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 18, 2016, 08:58:51 PM
As in: running a full node on that instance?

What about bandwidth / number of connections? I vaguely remember some recommendations not to bother with running a full node unless meeting certain requirements wrt the previous two variables, since otherwise you're not really adding much to the network. Is that a problem with the EC2 node?

If not, I'm going to start running a few of those instances as well. The reason for me not to permanently run a full node is that I don't have a machine that I don't use otherwise, and that I don't mind being dedicated to the network. But outsourcing it sounds exactly like my kind of deal Cheesy

Please give us a rundown on how to set one up over there, at some point.

AWS has bandwidth and connections out the wazoo. You pay for it though but my quick calculations put it pretty low. It could get pricey if someone tried to get the whole blockchain from you but I understand that has been somewhat fixed. In theory, I could make an image of my node and put it out in the marketplace so anyone could use it but there would be a few things I'd have to do before I was comfortable doing that.

I should have written 8333 BTW. I'll go back and correct it.
2198  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 18, 2016, 02:23:51 PM

What exactly should I ask for if I want to follow your footsteps and run a full node on Amazon's smallest, weakest instance type? Is it a Linux instance type because they are usually the cheapest?

What exactly should I ask for if I want to follow your footsteps, but if I want a Windows instance type?

It's pretty straightforward. Just fire up a t2.micro with enough disk space, create a security group that allows port 22 and 8333 and run the node software.

It's fairly similar between windows and linux but I'd recommend linux because it's cheaper and because you don't really need all the things windows does. I'm thinking I may make a video on how to do it.
2199  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 18, 2016, 04:34:03 AM
Why would be only 5-10, or only 500 nodes? There is no factual data to support that claim at all.

Everyone can have a p2p client that deals with 10kb/sec, has 100 mb storage requirements, needs 1 small cpu and 256mb ram. As you go up and up in hw requirements, cost goes up, "volunteers" go down - even if userbase goes up. As you hit datacenter level requirements the number of "volunteers" starts dropping significantly because costs start running in the 5 digit, then 6 digit category and eventually you'll be paying millions.

Some of us remember 8 bit CPUs running at 4Mhz with 1k of RAM and software stored on audio cassettes. Hard drives were just something you read about. The first one I actually had (nearly 10 years later) was 40MB

In the past 10 years, I have seen 10 racks of servers in a server room disappear into a handful of Virtual hosts. I'm currently running a full node on Amazon's smallest, weakest instance type. Their cost for storing the blockchain as it currently stands is on the order of $5/month.

These are issues we should not be worrying about until they are measurably becoming an issue. Like regularly full blocks already *are*

2200  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 17, 2016, 07:05:40 PM
they are trying their power grab,

Power grab? If there is any power to grab, that is a problem in and of itself.
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