MPoE-PR and other anti-ASICMINER a couple of weeks ago: "Good luck with this, Div now is as high as it could get and shares are much much overvalued"
 Lurking in the shadow reading this thread and finding about this week's divs:  I laughed out loud. Really loud. LOL  |
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Keep rockin' it friedcat!
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Sometimes I got up and I think it would be nice to dump like 250 shares on btct just to see the reaction, I will do it on of these days.
Doing this can push the price down to 2.0 BTC per share as of now (Wed Jun 5 12:27:59 UTC 2013). No one knows how the market would react. Nothing will happen to the price. There were 500 share walls many times on Pass Throughs that were eaten off rather quickly. In addition thousands of direct and PT shares moved privately during last few weeks. This. One guy sold off like 2000 at least last week. Thousands were liquidated by various people. |
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I'm quoting the following from a recent reddit post ( link): ASIC miner share price makes no sense. it's a bubble and it's not gonna be worth it. right now it's like 70mh per share for 2.4 BTC! you might as well spend the money on buying mining hardware. the yearly return is 38%, yea it's good compare with the stock market but let's look at the fundamentals. the market cap of asicminer is overvalued. for the same amount of money i.e. total issued shares x share price you can build another asic mining company 400,000 * 2.4 * 120 = 115,200,000 USD. This makes no sense, with this amount of money you can R&D ASICs and have hash rates that's many times over the current network hashrates. No, they are not going to maintain this amount of hashpower once all other asics come online. sooner or later other asics will be competing. there is asicminer, avalon, bitfury, diy avalon, kncminer, bfl, diy bfl, BTC garden, and many other private projects. In a few month there will be hundreds of THs dumping to the network and asicminer shares will be worth nothing. If a year from now you can sell the shares for the same price good for you, but most likely you won't be, and the dividend will not be enough to cover your loss. Think about it: if they can IPO at 0.1 BTC per share for 400,000 shares, why can't you build a similar company for 0.3 BTC * 400,000*50 (where 0.3 and 50 is the over-estimated BTC price, it IPO'd last year) I think it's useful to quote it here since people coming to this thread in the future may have similar thoughts. (I am an AM share holder.) My rebuttal: there's only one friedcat. |
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If you're in Bitcoin and these securities, you are absolutely a gambling man  Unlike what most people think, investing in Bitcoin is no different than investing in other currencies. Risks can be mitigated just like they can in regular markets. You can earn money going up and going down. There's no gambling involved, unless you're ignorant, in which case you can probably just give your money away so at least it will be quick if not less painful. .b I agree in part. You're at least making it a big part of your life, or it's a gamble. You know, checking it all the time, alarms, etc. I ride it up and down, but I still think that's a gamble because everybody has to sleep. I don't think my price alarm will wake me up, and if, god forbid, it tanks while I'm sleeping, I'll be down a large sum for a hopefully not so long haul back up. I take the gamble happily. You don't make money while BTC is going down though unfortunately; where are you shorting? OTC options? I haven't tried that yet. You're doing that furuknap? You can short the stocks at least... You're right in part but I think you know BTC moves a bit quicker than other currencies, and thus requires more upkeep. Good if it's your day job. |
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so when does this assfuck get a scammer tag?
lol |
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Awesome Namworld.
How'd you get a Bitfunder API key?
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It ships on the 10th. He has 5 days to receive it and test it. Seems like he only expected 1 day to test it before the delay. 4 day shipping, go go go.
In terms of the bet, he has one day to test it and get an independent and respected community member to review. That might be cutting it awefully close... I'm not a gambling man, but I'm not sure I would bet that he makes it. .b If you're in Bitcoin and these securities, you are absolutely a gambling man I agree. I'm not sure either, and who knows how he'll get judged on the terms. |
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Chip packaging delay
The packaging facility will ship the chips on 2013-06-10. We have 2 weeks delay :-(
Created on 2013-06-04 15:44:00 by Leszek Rychlewski; Published on 2013-06-04 15:45:33 by koji;  Ouch... What does this mean for the Bitbet thing from Bitfury? Is it even possible that the bet can still be Yes? From what I read, only the public demo must be announced two weeks in advance, but a private confirmation can come at any time, so perhaps there is still hope for Yes-betters? .b It ships on the 10th. He has 5 days to receive it and test it. Seems like he only expected 1 day to test it before the delay. 4 day shipping, go go go. |
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Скорее всего проиграл. Но посмотрим. Может все-же я фразу неправильно перевел.
Но ведь ship date - это всего лишь дата отгрузки, времени в пути не существует? Bitfury invented time travel. Everything will be OK  |
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Since you seem to be really committed to it, let's have a 100 BTC wager - this vs Coinlenders over 3 months. Escrowed with John. Let me know and we can make a new thread.
It's not about this vs Coinlenders. (Where did that come from?) It's just about this bond being just fine. You're the one coming into a thread with theories as to why it's bad in a hypothetical future, when it's doing just fine in the present reality. In any case, I don't have 100 BTC, and I'm going to agree to disagree. If you're doing well with Coinlenders, that's great. Cheers sir. |
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Also, here is exactly why you cannot use YAMBC as an example:  ASICs changes the game, just like the effect GPUs and FPGAs had on the mining difficulty. We'll see if that makes any difference soon enough. Its share price still hasn't felt an impact. It's also still going to be sitting at nice interest per week. Higher than AM, and people buy into AM right before dividends. There's no reason to bail yet. |
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Read my previous comment on faster difficulty means TAT has less reason to "pull a fast one". It's like you guys are throwing 2 different competing arguments at eachother for why this is a bad bond, but they both conflict logically.
Try taking it for what it is, and read the mans words.
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So, yes it applies to the next difficulty in fact.
Sorry, I should be more clear. Yes, it technically applies to the next difficulty. I said that earlier, when I agreed with Deprived. What I mean is TAT did this for additional capital. I don't expect TAT wants to give his new capital back so soon. I don't see the point. AM keeps maintains or increases their hashrate, the difficulty goes up, he pays less dividends. It's a loan that he isn't making enough to pay initially but slowly is able to cover it, then it's just free money. He did the math, I don't know what it is, but I'm sure it ends up with free several thousand dollars at some point in the future. At least a few months, depending on AM. |
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Are you aware of the price that YAMBC initially traded at?
Irrelevant.
The difference is that this one has a buy-back allowed at a low multiple of daily dividend.
If the price stays high then not only can he buy back the shares for far less - but immediately before doing so he can fill the markt bids so as to make an immediate profit on purchases that never receive a single dividend.
It's already hard for people who haven't managed to flip yet - as when they sell they're competing against the issuer who's steadily selling more into Bids.
I agree that buyback clause sucks. I still don't think it applies for the next few difficulties. I'm also not sure TAT is in the business of screwing people over. Would be good to amend it that he won't fill bids after he does a buyback, or it must be a complete buyback, or buy back at the IPO price. Shouldn't be allowed to IPO and buyback immediately either, because next difficulty if he IPO's at 0.007 he could immediate buyback at 0.0066, technically, even though I doubt he will, the agreement allows for it. Paint it as sketchy as you want, but it's all about trust in the end. I have enough trust that TAT is aiming for a win/win situation. Which results in a few good months of divs if ya'll don't freak out with insecurity and theorycrafting. |
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It doesn't matter if people drop out before "15% APR", the price will go down because mining itself only produces a fixed amount of BTC. Every single BTC paid out is one less BTC that could be mined.
It is not like a company that can grow in the future. It's like a company making products for a market that always shrinks in numbers. In addition, as the difficulty increases the price will drop.
Your theory doesn't really hold up in the real world. Yes, obviously, it's perpetual mining, *the BTC mined* is going to go down. Yet people still buy and hold onto it.  Initially rocky, but look since March, it's become more stable and gone up on average. Yet look at the dividends slowly dwindling.  |
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The first few numbers are correct. Predicting difficulty after the next change is guess-work. But yes - you don't want to be holding them (if bought at initial price) after the next 3 difficulty changes for sure, possibly after next 2. I would NOT expect him to buy back that quickly - the longer he waits the more profit he makes. But at some point that crosses over with the opportunity cost of not using the ASIC-MINER shares to secure some other revenue stream (or ASIC-MINER share price starts to fall and he wants to sell so has to recall these to free up the shares).
Yah, Deprived is right, and I don't expect TAT wants to give his new capital back so soon. Maybe at 0.004 or less. That'll be a while. But this 200x buyback is kind of bull. You should have to buy back at the IPO value IMO. |
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20% APR is horrible if after a year the shares are worth 75% of what they are before.
I agree, but as I said, I don't expect people to drop out before 15% APR, thus the shares would be worth 100% of what they were before until that breaking point. B.YABMC is doing just fine at 55% APR - it's actually going up. I don't expect the difficulty to go down. I didn't expect it to go up that much though. If you're right, this bond won't last my proposed 8 months, but it's still fine for 2-3 months at least. We'll see. I'm not disagreeing, I'm just a bit more optimistic. |
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Them some sweet sweet divs. This first month will be the best, but it'll still be worth keeping it in here for ~8 months. After 8 months it'll prob be at 5% APY which is OK if stable.
You have not done research on the network difficulty. Perhaps not enough, but anything is a guess without knowing how ASIC shipments will play out. I guestimated based on coinish.com's calculator (rather than $2.66, it was at $62.6 with 0 months as time to delivery) with an increase in difficulty of 1.3% per day that it will be 23x now in 8 months (so around 300 mil). If the APY is around 120% now, it could be 5% in 8 months. Whatever, if it's 5 months or it's 2%, the point is it'll be good holding onto it up to 5% APY anyway. Before we hit even 15% I don't expect people to be dropping out, YABMC is still going good. |
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That's awesome. It's at least the first record of it.
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