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221  Economy / Economics / Re: Everything you wanted to know about BTC TVS but were afraid to ask! on: December 14, 2020, 11:29:36 AM
Answering one of the previous questions, about how people can earn actual cash/money from their TVS position (in professional terms - derivative contract monetization or derivative position unwinding):

There are commonly 4 ways available:

•   Novation: This unwinding method assigns the trade to a third party. Under this method, the investor would receive the present value of the contract from the assignee with the original terms of the contract remaining in force. Since there is still counterparty risk with the new assignee, the original counterparty must agree to the novation. This is effectively a selling of the initial contract to a third party through the platform.
•   Contract termination: The easiest unwinding method would be for the counterparty to agree to terminate the contract. To do so, the seller would transfer the present value of the contract to the contract buyer. This transaction assumes that the contract will last until maturity without a credit event occurring. This assumption is, of course, unrealistic since a default is still possible. Therefore, to account for the positive probability of default, the present value is calculated with a discount rate that reflects credit risk. This is effectively a selling of the initial contract to the platform with discount to market price.
•   Taking offsetting position: This method involves entering into an offsetting position with another counterparty. To perfectly hedge the remaining cash flows, the investor needs to sell a contract which is netting all payouts and potential returns to zero. This is effectively a purchase/sale of offsetting contract from another investor.
•   Marked-to-market: An accounting method that records the value of an asset according to its current market price. M2M pricing accurately reflects the true value of an asset. In Mark-to-Market accounting the asset values are determined according to market prices at the end of each day in order to arrive at the profit or loss status of the parties in a futures transaction. In futures trading mark-to-market is also known as daily settlement. In mark-to-market the profit or loss of the contract is realized at the end of each trading day. This mark-to-market prevents the accumulation of losses beyond the point of affordability by the losing party and helps the clearing house reduce its risk of guaranteeing the performance of every futures contract. This is effectively an exchange of cash to settle daily losses/profits, thus if one user earns $10 on a position, its counterparty must lose $10 on the same position, thus net cash flows net to zero. Such system implementation is possible only with full-fledge exchange market, not an OTC platform.
222  Economy / Economics / Re: Everything you wanted to know about BTC TVS but were afraid to ask! on: December 14, 2020, 11:22:08 AM
I don't understand the initial pricing of the tranches. Shouldn't the senior ones cost more (for providing insurance against price decline) and the junior ones cost less (for providing more risk) ? As it is, the only way to earn with junior tranches is to buy them at a discount, so who is going to buy at the initial price ?

Thank you for spending time to read the full post above and for such a good question!

The above presented model is just the payout model of TVS, but for the pricing model - it’s still work to be done. That’s one of the reasons we expect a lot of arbitrage opportunities to exist in the market initially. Just like when options were invented and there was no generally accepted model to price them.

You are absolutely correct, based on theory - Senior TVS should cost more than the actual expected payout for the embedded “insurance”, and the Junior TVS should be sold with discount. But with current implementation on OTC - it’s up to traders what premium/discount to assign to each value tranche. Furthermore, don’t forget about such features of traditional asset-backed securities as overcollateralization, insurance for specific ABS tranches, and others (will post later all opportunities in that area). So for example, Junior TVS could be having bigger downside potential, larger upside, as compared to Senior one, but could be insured, thus becoming even more attractive for trading.

And about how to earn with Junior tranches and TVS overall, basically there are 2 options available: 1) selling your TVS to someone (common way), and 2) contract termination (where you redeem the underlying for the TVS you hold). There are other 2 traditional ways (will also post later), but these 2 are the most easy.

For us, we will be providing the initial liquidity in the market, thus would be taking positions with traders who wish to execute their trades. Overall, as you also correctly noted - if underlying doesn't decline in value after the issuance - it's just a "share" of asset (thus no benefit), but if you take into consideration the discounts/premiums which you noted, there might be significant benefits even at the very beginning of TVS issuance and people might be wanting to buy them. And, last, but not the least, people who don't have underlying (like Bitcoin), but wishing to get a cheaper exposure to upside/downside - they could be buying the Junior tranches.
223  Economy / Economics / Re: Everything you wanted to know about BTC TVS but were afraid to ask! on: December 14, 2020, 11:06:39 AM
It looks cumbersome and costly. I think that hedging with options or futures would be simpler and more cost effective as it cuts out the middle-man.

The main benefit of an MBS is that it aggregates thousands of mortgages. There is no such benefit if it is just Bitcoin.


Thank you for reply - it’s really helpful for us to understand how people familiar with the matter view the TVS.

Answering the comment - with futures and options you can hedge the full risk of underlying asset. Like of 100% 1 Bitcoin, but with TVS, you can “cut off” the downside risk, and keep the upper part of risk/return if you wish. Furthermore, if you have a portfolio of 100 Bitcoins, it’s likely to cost you more to hedge with 100 options than having your BTC securitized and keeping the desired part of risk/return. Moreover, with options and futures you also trade them through CEX or DEX, which is the “middle-man”. As for TVS, currently it’s implemented in OTC format so the intermediary just serves to assure security of your transaction with other traders, but once more standardized TVSs are available - it will be same with options and futures - middle-man is just your trading venue.

As for the benefit of MBS, you are absolutely correct - you get diversification of credit risk, than if one of mortgages goes bankrupt, others won’t. But TVS is not intended to diversify credit risk, but market price risk. And for example while credit risk still will be there with equities and fixed-income, it’s not applicable to Bitcoin for example (it cannot go bankrupt), therefore there’s no such issue or need to diversify that risk.
224  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] ⭐🚀 as.exchange ⭐🚀 Innovative Derivatives Exchange ⭐🚀 on: December 13, 2020, 02:29:39 PM
Dear everyone, we kindly invite you to check out our latest post about the Tranched Value Securities. Be careful - it's a long-read and very detailed Wink

Everything you wanted to know about BTC TVS but were afraid to ask!

225  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: What is the best place to invest, earn and predict among new projects???? on: December 13, 2020, 02:23:14 PM
I think its better to do a research by your self , otherwise you will lost your money

Absolutely, and that's the reason why so many scams still exist - people tend to prefer to handle their money to someone who got big PR and large marketing campaign, irrespective of if its scam or not. - "it's marketed, so it's good". And then blame media, regulators, advisors, etc. for not stopping them.
226  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] ⭐🚀 as.exchange ⭐🚀 Innovative Derivatives Exchange ⭐🚀 on: December 13, 2020, 12:25:26 PM
can i know about transform performances ?

Absolutely, here's the brief example we provided earlier:


Sure, here's how it works:

---

You have 1 BTC priced at $10,000.

You're worried that BTC price will decline in the future.

You securitize 1 BTC on as.exchange and issue 2 Tranched Value Securities (TVS).

Each TVS can claim 50% of BTC market price, or a fixed value of $5,000, whichever is greater; one TVS is Senior and the other is Junior, where Junior TVS can claim anything, only if Senior TVS's claim was satisfied in full.

You sold Junior TVS because you expected BTC price to decline.
Another person bought Junior TVS from you because s/he expects BTC price to increase.

---

Next week BTC price falls to $8,000 (-20.0% return).

Senior TVS price becomes: max($8,000 x 50%, $5,000) = $5,000 (0.0% return).
The Junior TVS price becomes: max($8,000 x 50%, $5,000) = $5,000, but then the total value of TVS would be $10,000, leading to arbitrage opportunities, hence ...
Junior TVS price becomes: $8,000 - $5,000 = $3,000 (-40.0% return)

---

Next week BTC price rises to $11,000 (+37.5% return).

Senior TVS price becomes: max($11,000 x 50%, $5,000) = $5,500 (+10.0% return).
Junior TVS price becomes: max($11,000 x 50%, $5,000) = $5,500 (+83.3% return).


In addition to the above, feel free to check the recent video by our CEO: Lesson 1: as.exchange Tranched Value Securities (TVS) vs. Spot Trading
227  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] ⭐🚀 as.exchange ⭐🚀 Innovative Derivatives Exchange ⭐🚀 on: December 13, 2020, 12:22:47 PM
I agree, this is a hostile environment, cut throat business, other practices frauds just to be on top of the game and be relevant, while there are exchanges that can't really compete at a high level and eventually die down.

Yes, unfortunately this is the reality not of only the exchanges or crypto-exchanges, but business overall. There are the ones that need to be hostile, or alternatively they quickly get bankrupt, or become "zombie"-companies/projects that are alive and in the market, yet they are dead (I guess most of you will know what I mean here Wink) And that's not to mention frauds and scams that want to earn "easy, quick and dirty" money.

At least one thing for sure is that as.exchange is not among those frauds or "zombies", that's the reason we don't ask anyone to invest, don't do ICO/TGE/IEO/etc., but just operate like a regular business serving our valuable customers.

I guess if you really set your goals and bring and help average joe traders to get the most benefit here, you can survived here. There could be a lot of challenges and bumps ahead, but this is part of business processes that one have to experience and undergo in order to be successful in the future. Best of luck.

Thank you very much for your kind comment! Indeed, as I mentioned we aim at helping not just professional funds, other exchanges or miners, but just the average Joe traders to get what they deserve. Especially in these hard COVID-19 times, everyone became even more vulnerable, therefore, it's our obligation, which we are happy to take, to help everyone in learning more about the full scope of market opportunities, and bring the tools that the elites used to use, to everyone who really needs that.
228  Economy / Economics / Everything you wanted to know about BTC TVS but were afraid to ask! on: December 13, 2020, 12:13:08 PM
Since the mid-18th century one of the most significant innovations in the financial world was creation of asset-backed securities (ABS), which were represented by the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States where farm railroad mortgage bonds were issued. Since then, many other types of derivative products were created in an attempt to enhance risk transfer between market participants by securitizing assets or cash-flows. As a result of the advancements in structured products, global OTC derivatives market has grown from nearly US$ 80 trillion in 1998 to almost US$ 700 trillion at the peak in 2011, and slightly over US$ 500 trillion in 2017, which is 6x times greater than global GDP according to IMF.

Despite the importance and size of global derivatives market, and continuous developments, there has been little change to the actual structure of derivatives, as most of them either split pooled assets or pooled cash-flows from the groups of assets using different types of combination of forward commitments or contingent claims with slightly modified parameters.

Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) promised to innovate and revolutionize the financial industry. However, since the creation of Bitcoin, there has been little innovation in area of financial instruments on their own, but mostly implementation of technology in various fields of finance, thus creating the FinTech hype.

With the emergence of FinTech, people forgot about the “Fin” aspect, and focused entirely on the “Tech” part. There have been dozens of new projects that promised to bring new derivatives to the capital markets, however, all they have done was taking traditional financial products from capital markets, and implementing them in the digital asset space.

However, the most recent financial innovation could be Tranched Value Securities (TVS) [patent pending], first described in the SSRN manuscript.

With this thread we will try to provide a few key points on what is TVS, how to estimate its payouts, how to use them, and what are their benefits.




WHAT IS A TRANCHED VALUE SECURITY (TVS)

“Tranched Value Security (TVS) [patent pending] is a security whose income payments, and hence value is derived from and collateralized (or "backed") by the value of a single asset, group of assets, stream of cash-flows or any other entity or product possibly having a determinable value (and / or price). Value of TVS is derived either from a value share of a specific underlying, or from a minimum contract value, which can equal to the value share of a specific underlying at the contract initiation, given that a higher-level (or “prior”) TVS are satisfied.”


In easier terms, TVS is similar to asset-backed security (ABS), but while the later one splits a pool of assets or pool of cash-flows, TVS splits the value.

It can be easier understood by looking at the CDO mortgage-backed security (MBS) representation from IMF below:



In the diagram above, for any ABS (RMBS (Residential Mortgage Backed Security) in this case), you would need a number of mortgages in order to create a pool of cash-flows, diversify risks, split the pool based on risk/return, and sell pool tranches to investors with appropriate risk/return appetites.

MBS Example:
- You have 10 mortgages, each making $10 payment every month (ignore maturity for now), which is 10 x $10 = $100 monthly;
- With RMBS, a banker would securitize these mortgages and create SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) that would be collecting these $100;
- SPV would issue various securities and sell those securities to external investors, who can be getting mortgage-backed payouts.

For simplicity assume, the banker creates 3 tranches:
•   Senior tranche (ST): receives $50 fixed, first in a row to receive payouts
•   Mezzanine tranche (MT): receives $30 fixed, second in a row to receive payouts after the ST
•   Junior tranche (JT): receives $20 or whatever left after the ST and MT received their payouts

With such structure, Senior would be priced highest, as it’s first in the row to receive payouts (thus, less risk), and JT would be prices with greatest discount (higher risk / higher return).

If everything goes as planned: three tranches receive what they need to and everyone is happy.
If some mortgages make overpayments: some mortgages make payouts of $15 (prepayment risk – not typically desirable by the ST holders), the extra $5 gets absorbed by the JT (extra return).
If some mortgages default: the JT absorbs the losses first. If two or more mortgages stop paying – JT doesn’t get anything, and then MT might also get nothing.

With TVS, only one mortgage would be enough, to do exactly the same. While 1 mortgage could be making payouts of $100 monthly, at some periods of time it could be paying more or less, and those under-/over-payments could be assigned to the riskier part of payouts pool. It can well be 5 mortgages, or 117.89321 Bitcoins, or 3 T-Bills, or 99 stocks of Apple – as long as the underlying asset has a determinable value, the value can be securitized and TVS can be issued.

TVS Example:
- You have 1 Bitcoin, having a value / price of $100;
- With TVS, a banker would securitize this 1 Bitcoin and create SPV (Special Purpose Vehicle) that would be absorbing Bitcoin value;
- SPV would issue various securities and sell those securities to external investors, who can redeem their newly issued securities value at any point in time.

For simplicity assume, the banker creates 3 value tranches:
•   Senior tranche (ST): receives $50 fixed or 50% or Bitcoin value (whatever is greater), first in a row to receive payouts
•   Mezzanine tranche (MT): receives $30 fixed or 30% of Bitcoin value (whatever is greater), second in a row to receive payouts after the ST
•   Junior tranche (JT): receives $20 or 20% of Bitcoin value (whatever is greater) or whatever left after the ST and MT received their payouts

If Bitcoin price goes up forever linearly without any single decline – the three tranches perform as if they are same shares with 100% same returns. Once Bitcoin price starts declining and then subsequentially changing price – TVSs have different return profiles.

Imagine after issuing TVS, Bitcoin declines to $95 (-5% return):
ST: can get 50% of $95 or $50 => $50 (0% return)
MT: can get 40% of $95 or $40 => $40 (0% return)
JT: should get 20% of $95 or $20 => $20, but that would not be possible, as there’s no value left that can be paid out, therefore, JT gets $95 - $50 - $40 = $5 (-75% return)

Holder of JT decides that it’s too much risk for him as Bitcoin might decline further and sells it to another investor for $5.

Imagine after that, Bitcoin increases to $110 (+15% return):
ST: can get 50% of $110 or $50 => $55 (+10% return)
MT: can get 40% of $110 or $40 => $44 (+10% return)
JT: should get 20% of $110 or $20 => $22 (+340% return)

Thus, by securitizing the value, Tranched Value Security transformed the performance of derivatives backed by the same underlying and issued on the same date.




TVS PAYOUT MODEL

Based on the above example, the generalized version of TVS payouts can be represented as below:



While the above model represents a valid payout model for TVS, the proper pricing model of TVS is still work in progress to be done. Therefore, every trader and user of TVS needs to study the presented derivative thoroughly and make informed decision about how to price it and what to trade it for.




IMPORTANT FEATURES OF TVS

•   Variable Value Share (VVS): the share represented in % terms which can be claimed by the TVS holder based on the asset price, given that the claims of more senior TVSs have been satisfied
•   Fixed Value Share (FVS): the fixed dollar value which can be claimed by the TVS holder based on the asset price, given that the claims of more senior TVSs have been satisfied
•   Underlying Asset: any asset or cash-flow with determinable value that was securitized based on which TVS was issued

From the MBS-type of products the following features can be implied:
•   Attachment Point (AP): the amount by which the underlying asset needs to decline in price in order for the current TVS to start declining in price (if TVS has AP of 10%, it will not lose anything until asset (Bitcoin) declines by at least 10%; once it declines by 10% or more – current TVS also declines)
•   Detachment Point (DP): the amount by which the underlying asset needs to decline in price in order for the current TVS to lose all value (if TVS has DP of 10% and asset (Bitcoin) declines by 10% or more – current TVS is priced at $0)

0.   For TVS to function as assumed, there must be at least 2 TVSs for any specific underlying asset when its securitized
1.   Sum of all TVSs’ VVS must always equal to 100%
2.   Sum of all TVSs’ FVS must always equal to the full price of underlying asset
3.   If 1. or 2. are not satisfied, arbitrage opportunities might be present
4.   While the payout model dictates that TVS might have a price of $0.00, it’s unrealistic assumption as the $0.00 TVS might turn out to be highly valuable if the underlying asset subsequently increases in value, and giving TVS for $0.00 means giving future upside potential for free (as previously $0.00 TVS increases in value it can be redeemed for actual asset, such as Bitcoin (would you give it for free? Wink)); therefore, initially arbitrage opportunities are expected with TVS model
5.   Due to 4. your will never get liquidated position with TVS as with leveraged trading or margin trading
6.   Attachment Point < Detachment Point




HOW TO USE TVS

Tranched Value Securities are a new type of financial instruments, therefore might hinder yet to be discovered risks. However, here we want to highlight only a few strategies that you could implement with TVS.

You have Bitcoin and expect its price to decline

Strategy:
Securitize your Bitcoins, and sell Junior tranches

Example:
•   Bitcoin cost $100 now
•   You have 1 Bitcoin
•   You assume Bitcoin will decline by 20%
•   You securitize your Bitcoin and issue 2 TVSs (for example), where:
-   The Senior TVS has VVS of 80% and FVS of $80
-   The Junior TVS has VVS of 20% and FVS of $20
•   You sell Junior TVS and get $20
•   If Bitcoin declines in value by anything less than 20%, your Senior TVS remains at least at $80 (Junior TVS absorbs losses first)
•   If Bitcoin increases in value, your Senior TVS increases as well

You have Bitcoin and expect its price to increase

Strategy:
Securitize your Bitcoins, and sell Senior tranches, and buy more Junior tranches

Example:
•   Bitcoin cost $100 now
•   You have 1 Bitcoin
•   You assume Bitcoin will increase by 20%
•   You securitize your Bitcoin and issue 2 TVSs (for example), where:
-   The Senior TVS has VVS of 80% and FVS of $80
-   The Junior TVS has VVS of 20% and FVS of $20
•   You sell Senior TVS and get $80
•   With $80 you buy more of Junior TVSs
•   If Bitcoin increases in value your initial Junior TVS will increase by 20% proportionally, but the Junior TVS you bought from others will increase even more
•   If Bitcoin decreases in value, you might become a holder of temporarily $0 value TVS (which is not realistic as described above)


You don’t have Bitcoin and expect its price to decline

Strategy:
Buy Senior TVS from other people

Example:
•   Bitcoin cost $100 now
•   You want to invest in it but don’t want to lose
•   You assume Bitcoin will decline by 20%
•   You buy TVS from others with Attachment Point of at least 20.0000…01%
•   If Bitcoin declines by anything less than 20.0000…01%, your TVS remains at least at what you bought it for
•   If Bitcoin increases in value, your TVS increases as well


You don’t have Bitcoin and expect its price to increase

Strategy:
Buy Junior TVS from other people

Example:
•   Bitcoin cost $100 now
•   You want to invest in and earn more than the market, but don’t want to take leverage
•   You assume Bitcoin will increase by 20%
•   You buy any kind of Junior TVS from others (the more junior – the higher the potential, the more risk)
•   If Bitcoin increases by any amount – you earn more than the market
•   If Bitcoin decreases by at least as much as the Attachment Point of your TVS – you start losing, if Bitcoin deceases by your Detachment Point or more - you become a holder of temporarily $0 value TVS (which is not realistic as described above)

You want to hold a portfolio of TVS for future upside

Strategy:
Buy Junior TVSs from various dates of issuance

Example:
•   Bitcoin cost $100 now, $90 tomorrow, and $120 the next day
•   Two other traders securitized their 1 Bitcoin on the first two dates above, and issued same 2 TVSs with VVS of 50%, but first TVS has FVS of $50, and second one has FVS of $45
•   You buy the first Junir TVS for $50
•   Tomorrow your TVS becomes $40 (-20% return), and you buy another Junior TVS from the second trader for $45
•   The next day your first Junior TVS becomes $60 (+20% 2-day return, +50% 1-day return), the second Junior TVS also becomes $60 (+33 1-day return)
•   In total you have spent $85, and after 2 days earned $120, meaning +41% total return, while Bitcoin increased by +20% over the same period

You want to hold a portfolio of TVS for future downside

Strategy:
Buy Senior TVSs from various dates of issuance

Example:
•   Bitcoin cost $100 now, $90 tomorrow, and $80 the next day
•   Two other traders securitized their 1 Bitcoin on the first two dates above, and issued same 2 TVSs with VVS of 50%, but first TVS has FVS of $50, and second one has FVS of $45
•   You buy the first Senior TVS for $50
•   Tomorrow your TVS remains at $50 (0% return), and you buy another Senior TVS from the second trader for $45
•   The next day your first Senior TVS remains at $50 (0% 2-day & 1-day return), the second Senior TVS remains at $45 (0% 1-day return)
•   In total you have spent $85, and after 2 days it stayed at $85, meaning 0% total return, while Bitcoin decreased by -20% over the same period




WHERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT TVS

About Tranched Value Securities (TVS)

Tranched Value Securities Calculator

Tranched Value Securities Original Manuscript on SSRN

Lesson 1: as.exchange Tranched Value Securities (TVS) vs. Spot Trading

Happy to hear all your comments and feedback! Hope this will help you in managing risks and improving returns.

If you think this thread is worth being translated in your own local board, please do so! We will be happy to provide assistance!





DISCLAIMERS

This post is not intended to serve as advertisement or promotion of as.exchange or Alter Securities Limited, or any of their services or products, but only for educational purposes about Tranched Value Securities.

as.exchange is a trademark of Alter Securities Limited ("The Company"). The Company has filled a patent application with the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) for the Tranched Value Securities™ (the “TVS™”) instrument. The current status of the patent is patent pending, therefore, any use or reference to the Tranched Value Securities™ might be subject to the local patent laws and regulars and should be done after the official approval from the Alter Securities Limited. Unauthorized use or implementation without the Alter Securities Limited consent, reference to or commercialization of Tranched Value Securities™ is subject to legal proceedings and financial penalties.


229  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How do you manage Bitcoin price risk? on: December 13, 2020, 10:47:21 AM
Holding is the most effective way to manage the risk the volatality of the market brings but it isn't as easy as many people make it seem, the example you used above is a perfect scenario (although highly exaggerated) of what holders go through especially as you can't totally ignored the market as the news is always in your face. Every price movement is been discussed which makes you always monitoring your portfolio. The altcoins market is what could possibly give you the example you highlighted.

I do agree with every point you made, except for only one "Holding is the most effective way to manage the risk the volatality" - forever HODLing is de-facto taking the entire price / market risk without any active participation or management. It's like as if investment funds would "buy a company / stock... and just watch". Yes, it's the way to get rid of risk of losing money on trading, but it assumes you gonna live for 100 years and will wait for BTC to reach whatever is promised. Even in that case actually if / when BTC becomes $100,000 or $1,000,000 per 1 BTC, the actual purchasing power of $100,000-1,000,000 might be same with today's $0.10... So your 1 BTC at that point might be able to buy you what you can buy today with 10 cents. As we cannot know the future, irrespective of personal beliefs about value of an asset, all possibilities are possible in the future.


If I have 10K usd came from 1k dollar investment. I totally sell all my portfolio and wait until a new crash happens again. The reason why many traders are losing their trades is because of greediness. We feel how easy it might be when we experience a win streak towards our buy and sell method. In result, we think inconsistently making a bad decision from our trades. Cryptocurrency market is really volatile, you may become millionaire today or homeless for tomorrow. In order to become successful, we must incorporate correctly our strategy, emotions into a consistent trades.

True, but imagine if after $10k, market never corrects again, and you keep watching it as it approaches your "to be $1,000,000". But yes, you are very right that many people are losing the game because of greediness... that's the human nature. With the rest, I believe you said everything very correctly.
230  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: BOT TRADING on: December 13, 2020, 05:38:31 AM
"Bot trading" as it is very unlikely to be profitable at all for a long period of time with sustainable returns, as correctly noted by some of previous commenters.

"Algorithmic trading" on the contrary - can be and is profitable, however, thats nothing what you might have in mind, but it's huge systems developed by hedge funds, banks and investment companies with multi-billion tech (software & hardware) infrastructure, own direct connectivity to the exchange, usage of high-speed Internet (which even not all companies would have access to), usage of AI/DeepTech/ML/BigData/[insert all the cool tech words you heard from media], and same billions US$ spent on large teams to develop, maintain and continually improve the actual trading algorithm.

So now compare your success chance of using "bot trading" for which you pay few hundred $$$ vs. "copy-trading" (the worst idea; if you believe in that trader - better let him manage your money directly) for which you pay subscription fee of few $$ + share profit vs. the actual "algorithmic trading" backed by the teams of some of the smartest people in the world with super-deep pockets.

Oh, and important point - the institutions that utilise "Algorithmic trading" are usually pretty happy if they can make 15-20% annually sustainably... so what's the actual expected ROI with bots & copytrading?..
231  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How do you manage Bitcoin price risk? on: December 13, 2020, 05:24:35 AM
I don't have much capital. so my strategy is usually short term, I buy bitcoins when they are down and sell when the price is not too high but safe. When there are signs of falling, I will transfer Bitcoin to USDT to keep my capital.

Small capital shouldn't stop you from actively managing money Smiley Long-term capital growth is usually through small but stable and continuous compounding of returns.
Why you wouldn't use options for example (among other ways) instead of spending on transaction fees, spreads, etc. by changing BTC<->USD?



It's more not pleasant to see a liquidated position rather than having a high amount value in future. BTC is for long term and everybody holding it is looking for the future value. Why they will swing trade using futures and perp while they can have a sure profit in the long run without any risk of being liquidated.

Applying the principle of pro trader to BTC holder is a bit questionable. Because the majority of BTC holders knows that Bitcoin is a phenomenal investment especially those who enter at a very low price.

You are absolutely correct about all points. I am preparing a long-read post about the topic you mention that with most (not all though) derivatives you can quickly get liquidated, but if common people would have a proper way to avoid that, while hedging the downside somehow, they might be engaging more actively in risk management. It's like with Picasso paintings - you might believe in it or might not, might believe in long-term value or not, but you probably gonna take a good care of it to make sure nothing deteriorates its value.



In crypto, everything is uncertain. And it depends on how we manage the assets that we have. I myself am still focused on being able to control my emotions and also do not easily believe all predictions especially those that don't make sense. I do day trading when the market is green. However, if it is red I choose the safe path with hold. And indeed, you will rarely see the market so you don't panic.

Predictions are always wrong. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) dictates that any available information is already priced in the market prices, so if someone says "BTC will go up / (down) by X due to Y" - it's already in the price when you open terminal to check it. And with chaos theory, it becomes worse that any second someone might say / do something new, and the price might change grammatically - and this wasn't priced in the market before as was not known, thus no prediction could foresee that. But yes, playing with emotions (especially of others) and finding market inefficiencies can be a good source for earnings.



I think the easiest way to manage bitcoin price risk is to answer the most easy questions about bitcoin investment, why do you hodl bitcoin? is it for long term (years to come) or to take profits for the short term (within 2 weeks to 3 months); This decision will help you to know that the best advantage is to buy bitcoin during the dip(limiting your risks) and then you sell when it experiences price hikes. BUT YOU HAVE TO BE CERTAIN WHAT YOU WANT with bitcoin to aid your decision making.

True, but you never know when is "the dip" comes.




Futures are not so innovative. People are hedging sugar, wheat, etc. from centuries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_exchange

Most of the time, I'm looking at crypto as crypto and not comparing the USD value. It's like buying a working van. Do you look for its current USD value daily?

When I need to hedge against USD anyway, I'm using Bitmex.

I know that futures are not innovative at all Grin That was my point that crypto-market virtually has nothing now for properly managing risks - futures, swaps, perpetuals, options, and... that's all?
As for the van - you still will be doing some maintenance, right? Otherwise it will be broken pretty soon.


232  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] ⭐🚀 as.exchange ⭐🚀 Innovative Derivatives Exchange ⭐🚀 on: December 12, 2020, 03:42:26 PM
Who are your competitors?

We could mention existing large crypto derivative exchanges as competitors, however, we believe that they are not competitors, but rather themselves prospective clients of as.exchange, as our offerings would be very useful for them to manage own liquidity and risks. As for non-exchange customers, our offering can be either complementary to the other financial products, or can be a standalone solution as it is highly advantageous as compared to other derivatives.

However, for your reference feel free to check out the details on the attached images about as.exchange vs. other offerings.



233  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: What is the best place to invest, earn and predict among new projects???? on: December 12, 2020, 09:29:04 AM
Feel free to check out the recent video by our CEO, where he explains how you can earn and invest in BTC and get less risks while having higher returns with new derivatives.

Dear BitcoinTalk community, we are pleased to present Lesson 1: as.exchange Tranched Value Securities (TVS) vs. Spot Trading by our CEO

Lesson 1 covers what are the benefits of trading Tranched Value Securities (patent pending) vs. spot asset trading. You can find the video on the link below.
Lesson 1: as.exchange Tranched Value Securities (TVS) vs. Spot Trading

234  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How do you manage Bitcoin price risk? on: December 12, 2020, 09:24:49 AM
For these parts - totally agree. But unfortunately as years pass, the number of shitcoins just keep increasing. Still very surprised to see that someone truly invests in new ICOs/IEOs/etc. (I don't mean the speculators & P&D groups). Until the market is cleared, probably many more years will pass, as even exit-scam projects' tokens still might be tradable, even though with collapsed liquidity. Just like some people knowingly what they do, invest in ponzis & pyramids with the thoughts that they are the smartest ones and can do what others couldn't.

Don't expect them to be gone any time soon. If anything, the number of shitcoin projects is actually likely to increase as Bitcoin(and the cryptocurrency space) grows more as time goes.

To simply put, scams have existed since the dawn of humanity, and it will continue to exist until the end.

Unfortunately, you are correct. As long as there is "human nature", there will be all the kinds of scams where someone earned their worth in the hard way, while others trying to just scam them or steal everything. Shitcoins are just one of many other ways to do so.

That's the reason we at as.exchange don't issue any kind of own token / currency, etc. (not advertising, but just mentioning). No need to issue new shitcoin when it doesn't serve any real purpose.


To be honest, I don't manage any kind of price risk. Just holding them will also provide a good return. Besides, lending can be profitable as well if you are really concerned about accumulating Bitcoins. Otherwise, selling high and buying low may not be worth it if one strongly believe in Bitcoin from future perspective.

Just holding is a good strategy overall too. But from financial theory by using "passive investment strategy" (just buy and hold), you will earn just what the market earns at best. However, with "active investment strategy" (actively managing investment portfolio, rebalancing, investing in other things, protecting the downside, etc.) you might well beat the market and earn more. However, you also can earn less.

For "selling high and buying low", actually it's not purely about believing or not in BTC future, it's simply exploiting market inefficiency. Like our CEO who does strongly believe in BTC, but he firstly bought BTC @ around $1.4-1.6k, and then sold all in 2018 @ $19.5-20k, and later re-entered in 2020 @ $4.8k. Being able to identify good opportunities and taking advantage of them is probably one of the reasons we are able to launch our current company. So just imagine what you could do, if you would be actively managing your price risks also Wink

235  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] ⭐🚀 as.exchange ⭐🚀 Innovative Derivatives Exchange ⭐🚀 on: December 12, 2020, 08:55:40 AM
And it's good that you have filled a patent (still pending) so that at least if someone wants to used it, they have to get your permission, or if other exchanges implemented it without your knowledge then there is patent infringement that can be filed against that exchange.

You are absolutely correct Smiley That's the reason we launched just recently, as before that we were preparing thoroughly the patent application. Unfortunately, as you know most of the current crypto-exchanges are very hostile to newcomers, and operate in unfair and dishonest manner.

Therefore, we do our best to assure our interests and compliance, but more importantly - our users' interest and benefits. That's #1 priority for as.exchange.
236  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] ⭐🚀 as.exchange ⭐🚀 Innovative Derivatives Exchange ⭐🚀 on: December 12, 2020, 08:47:13 AM
Thanks for the video, just watch the first half of it and some of the terms are really new to me so I can't comment as this point.  Smiley I just probably shoot later as I slowly digest TVS.

And it's good that you have filled a patent (still pending) so that at least if someone wants to used it, they have to get your permission, or if other exchanges implemented it without your knowledge then there is patent infringement that can be filed against that exchange.

Thank you for your kind feedback! Yes, the TVS might be hard to fully understand for people who didn't trade derivatives or structured products before. Therefore, we will do our best to help everyone fully understand the benefits of various financial products.

That's one of the main reasons some people earn, while others lose. - Yes, there's a factor of skills (can be learned quickly), factor of luck (nobody can control it), insight information (illegal in common markets), but the last part are the products which you use to invest and assets which you have assets to. What is known by the elite financial professional - is out of reach for regular people, and that's why most people will lose when they invest. They simply don't have the same tools (not tech tools, but financial tools). And we, at as.exchange aim to bring those financial tools mainstream, to assure that markets are truly fair and efficient.
237  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] ⭐🚀 as.exchange ⭐🚀 Innovative Derivatives Exchange ⭐🚀 on: December 11, 2020, 07:58:25 PM
Dear BitcoinTalk community, we are pleased to present Lesson 1: as.exchange Tranched Value Securities (TVS) vs. Spot Trading by our CEO

Lesson 1 covers what are the benefits of trading Tranched Value Securities (patent pending) vs. spot asset trading. You can find the video on the link below.
Lesson 1: as.exchange Tranched Value Securities (TVS) vs. Spot Trading

Please let us know if you have any questions, recommendations, or suggestions. We are happy to hear any constructive feedback from our community Smiley


238  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How do you manage Bitcoin price risk? on: December 11, 2020, 06:28:06 AM
I personally prefer to hold actual bitcoins than to access it using a third-party service. Bitcoin is a decentralized peer-to-peer currency which gives holders autonomy and pseudo anonymity, all of these intrinsic qualities are lost when one chooses to use the services of a centralized platform, the likes of which offer such investment options. I'm also interested in the usage of Bitcoin to pay for services.

I see your point. In that case, when you actually use BTC to make payments (what it was created for initially), then definitely derivatives are not the best approach to do that. Even though, as current merchants index their BTC prices to market rate in US$, it could benefit to hedge risks, if you are holding like hundreds or thousands of BTC. But yes, if you are someone who cares about privacy, anonymity and independence, then holding crypto in own wallet with priv keys is the only and best solution.

You shouldn't use a situation that would put global security at risk. Quantum computers would not be peculiar to Bitcoin and would potentially expose lots of sensitive information.
About shitcoins declining; that would actually be good for the market. A lot of coins over the years have fizzled out or their devs did an exit scam and a lot more in the future would follow suit, just the same way we have seen the top 10 coins by market cap (or at least 9 of them) switch places as some fell out of that range.

For these parts - totally agree. But unfortunately as years pass, the number of shitcoins just keep increasing. Still very surprised to see that someone truly invests in new ICOs/IEOs/etc. (I don't mean the speculators & P&D groups). Until the market is cleared, probably many more years will pass, as even exit-scam projects' tokens still might be tradable, even though with collapsed liquidity. Just like some people knowingly what they do, invest in ponzis & pyramids with the thoughts that they are the smartest ones and can do what others couldn't. Until then, I think derivatives could be beneficial to that market as their main purpose is price reveleance, information discovery (spot price will react slower than derivative), and risk transfer from those who don't want it to the risk seekers, which can improve liquidity and opportunities to exit illiquid shitcoins.

P.S, Writing consecutive replies is against forum rules. You should rather edit (merge) your new reply into the old one
Sorry, didn't know - will keep in mind for future replies.
239  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] ⭐🚀 as.exchange ⭐🚀 Innovative Derivatives Exchange ⭐🚀 on: December 11, 2020, 05:22:54 AM
Feel free to ask any questions regarding TVS or as.exchange Smiley It's our pleasure to get your feedback and help you with understanding new financial products.
0.00% deposit and withdrawal fee?, how is it possible, then how did you make your gain. The whole industry is a win win situation, free depositing==>trading with charges making gains==>withdrawing with fee, that's how the system works. Or will the free deposit/withdrawal close for some specific period of time?

Deposit & withdrawal fees are set at 0% forever. The trading fees are 0% for the first 10,000 registered users only with securitized balance of at least $100. For the others, there are trading fees as specified on the website, and contract termination fees (once you decide that you wish to "de-securitize" your derivative and get back underlying asset instead). So there are fees, but we aim to provide as much benefits as possible to the first users and supporters.

So it's not only that it ends in ".exchange"... I didn't even know that's possible. But you only got two letters before the dot. How much does such a domain cost?

Thank you Smiley I can say it was fairly priced

First time though to hear Tranched Value Securities and I think this is innovative as this offering is a win-win situation for traders and the exchange itself. For sure, if this becomes successful in the future, other exchanges might implement this in there core and offer it to their users as well.

You are correct, Tranched Value Securities (TVS) are truly innovative product. Later today we will post a video by our CEO who explains it in great details. However, to correct you, we applied for patent (currently pending) with WIPO (international protection across 193 countries), so nobody will be able to offer it except for as.exchange. Therefore, according to our strategy, we are launching TVS for crypto-currencies first due to their greater volatility, but will be quickly moving on to other assets (stocks, bonds, FX, alternative assets, etc.)
240  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Who has held bitcoin for more than 5 years? on: December 09, 2020, 05:11:35 PM
One of our founders bought BTC early 2016 and sold @ $19.5k in 2018, and then bought again in 2020 when it was $4.8k Roll Eyes if you are curious, you can find some of his posts about that on Twitter

So you are claiming that he sold his coins when the prices reached ATH and then again purchased them, when the prices had bottomed out. Theoretically, this is the best scenario which you can imagine. But in reality, it is almost impossible to do this. We never know when the peak prices will be reached and the same goes for the lowest level as well.

For beginners it must be very difficult to make a choice. But if you have experience in this case it will definitely feel easy. Of course you have a lot to learn if you want to predict the price of bitcoin correctly. But also must be prepared for the risks.

Yes, you are absolutely right. It must have been hard to continue keeping when it hit $10k, then $15k, and then selling at almost 20k, but experienced people in investments know well about human biases, and mass market biases, as well as correlations and connections between various factors which might seam independent. So once someone master those, it's not too hard in the end. There are way harder things than that.
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