I guess that would be similar to the shareholders in Northern Rock. Buyer beware |
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What have you been working on....wiggling cat ears, Amir Taaki does not approve  |
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This is Robert J. Smilers definition of a bubble, from https://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2013/shiller-lecture.pdf"A situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify price increase and bringing in a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about the real value of the investment, are drawn to it partly through envy of others’ successes and partly through a gambler’s excitement." Its interesting to note that his definition says nothing about the underlying truths or value of the asset. By this definition alone I think Bitcoin could be called a bubble, the problem is that the definition doesn't mention anything about the true value, just perception, and we all know that Bitcoin newbies struggle to put a real value on Bitcoin as there are no decent real world analogies. |
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4000USD as a resistance level has been tested, which is a very good news.
Now if segwit 2x will not be too messy, price -> moon for sure.
Worring part is >90% miner support for it, and core's tough position against it... This hardfork can be more deadly than BCC...
Miners can only mine a coin that they can sell. We have already seen many have no loyalty, they will move to the coin that will pay their electricity bills. Who is gonna buy all the coins mined, and the all the coins dumped? Certainly not enough to support 90% of the hash power, so the real Bitcoin will limp along to the re-calc, and then its party over for 2x. |
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Everyone knows that it will probably go up, but when you hit a life changing price target, you'd be mad to continue taking 100% risk.
Everyone knows that holding dollar, euro, yen, pound and other fiat trash is nothing else but taking 100% risk. It is not just risk. It is stupidity because it is a sure loss. Holding bitcoins is the most successful escape from that risk! Unless, as you say, they want very much to buy something tangible like car or house. But make no mistake! This car or this house will be the most expensive house they'll ever see throughout their entire life. For instance, I know people that sold their bitcoins at 750 euros to buy a bike. At that time I warned them that they're buying the most expensive bike they'll ever see!  Its like that game "Deal or no Deal", the best chance of a high return is always gained by going to the end and never swapping your box. But in reality its not always the best decision. Another example, lets say you are fairly poor, and I gave you $100K, but said your could win another $200k, on a 50/50 coin toss (Giving you a total of $300k if you win, $0 if you lose), I don't think the decision is so easy. Your life is finite, so money now is sometimes better than a chance of more money the future, you just have to assess the amounts, probabilities and risk you want to accept. The choice is easy indeed: just give me that 100k, and I will later decide what to do with it, a 50% all in gamble seems not the wisest possible decision. I would instead invest them in bitcoin. Exactly, mathematically the best choice is to take the gamble, the odds (risk/reward) are in your favour. But if that $100k would change your life to a reasonable extent, you'd be crazy to take it. And I think this thought process is directly applicable to people holding bitcoin. |
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I think some people have preset exit points, such as when it reaches just under $5k, I'll sell x% which will allow me to say buy a car, or pay off my mortgage.
Buy a car? Such an useless waste of money. Everyone knows that it will probably go up, but when you hit a life changing price target, you'd be mad to continue taking 100% risk.
That is absolute horse shit. If you understand something better than the 99% of the population, then you should be going 110% in (of course, only if it makes sense to invest). The best time to buy Bitcoin was 7 years ago, the second best time is today. Quote me on this in 3 years and you will see whether going in 50% or 100% was the smarter choice. If you believe that it is 100% certain that Bitcoin will go up, then do it! And spend the next X years, not enjoying the fruits of your capital. Of course you might die before you cash out, and then you got no benefit from it at all. But perhaps your youth means you don't believe in your own death yet. |
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Everyone knows that it will probably go up, but when you hit a life changing price target, you'd be mad to continue taking 100% risk.
Everyone knows that holding dollar, euro, yen, pound and other fiat trash is nothing else but taking 100% risk. It is not just risk. It is stupidity because it is a sure loss. Holding bitcoins is the most successful escape from that risk! Unless, as you say, they want very much to buy something tangible like car or house. But make no mistake! This car or this house will be the most expensive house they'll ever see throughout their entire life. For instance, I know people that sold their bitcoins at 750 euros to buy a bike. At that time I warned them that they're buying the most expensive bike they'll ever see! Its like that game "Deal or no Deal", the best chance of a high return is always gained by going to the end and never swapping your box. But in reality its not always the best decision. Another example, lets say you are fairly poor, and I gave you $100K, but said your could win another $200k, on a 50/50 coin toss (Giving you a total of $300k if you win, $0 if you lose), I don't think the decision is so easy. Your life is finite, so money now is sometimes better than a chance of more money the future, you just have to assess the amounts, probabilities and risk you want to accept. |
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Whoever dumped, many thanks for the cheap coins. Keep the good work!
<gribble> Bitstamp | Total bids: 46034286 USD. Total asks: 1994 BTC. Ratio: 23074.89489 USD/BTC. | Data vintage: 0.0156 seconds
The buy side is hitting record highs every other day. I can't possibly figure out why someone would want to sell significant sums at this point, unless they're trying to game the market. There will be a lot of hurt people who sold this year. I think some people have preset exit points, such as when it reaches just under $5k, I'll sell x% which will allow me to say buy a car, or pay off my mortgage. People have learnt from previous points ($1k) and decided to set their price point slightly under the round figure of $5k, I bet when we get near $10, people wil have learnt from the $5K dumps and start even earlier. Everyone knows that it will probably go up, but when you hit a life changing price target, you'd be mad to continue taking 100% risk. But I'm still all in. |
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I was checking catamaran prices in croatia... looks like I am hodling for another goddamn 3 years. Why boats so expensive, such a waste of money --but I still want one
You know what they say about boats.... the two best days are the day you buy it, and the day you sell it.  |
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Nonsense. If the market moves strongly to Bitcoin Cash over Bitcoin Core, then the narrative that 'Bitcoin Cash is The Real Bitcoin' will have been proven true.
It's not a matter of Bitcoin(TM) brand, but who controls the toy. Would you invest in anything hijacked by the 3 stooges? my problem with selling bitcoin cash and moving it to BTC proper is taxes. IF I ignore it the IRS may call it a stock split... if I dork with it and move/sell or whatever they may say it is money from air (like mining) and want 47% income tax. (yeah I'm in that bracket) so I'm just leaving it alone and playing ignorant (along with my bytetball, bitcore, clams and any other air dropped stuff to my BTC addresses I just know if I cash out ...that will count as a tax event ..even if I move it in like kind to btc....they will call it mining...or income from air and tax it like mining....just saying..its the IRS...they really don't like money from air (mining) in the usa..I think they will tag this as such if you move it....sell it...or whatever..the 2013 IRS guidelines were released 10 days before the tax deadline in 2013....so I am cautious..(The IRS no like us much me thinks) why I'm on the fence or my strategy at this time If you haven't claimed your Byteball, unfortunately you've lost the opportunity, the major monthly airdrops are over and you needed to sign your Byteball address with your BTC private keys for a drop each full moon. There are a few more to come but its only 10% of what it was. Clams & Bitcore is a very small amount (a few dollars per BTC) |
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Breaking News: According to BitcoinMeister the next friendly BTC fork is on the way called Bitcoin Gold. Video info here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAukxlpwyHgGPU mined bitcoin fork with POW change to GPU originating from China. Competitor to BCH and maybe Etherium later. Sold my BCH for a nice 17.2% dividend that was an easy call. This one might be a harder call. Could pull some interest away from ethereum once ethereum goes proof of stake. Team behind the bitcoin gold project will implement replay protection and are pro core according to the video which is interesting. Even if it is 'friendly' it's still not helpful. And it also has the magic three letters of I C & O http://btcgpu.org/"Friendly fork"... all forks are an attempted take-over. There can be no doubt the will confuse the less technical people. They steal the name and damage the Bitcoin brand. As someone has said before, there were Alts, Spam and the next phase of Bitcoin attacks will be the forks. Apart from us indirectly taking money from the foolish defectors, the main positive will be the strength built in Bitcoin when they all fail. Yeah... I believe |
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I tirelessly spend time blocking every racist news source on Facebook only to come to a Bitcoin forum to hear more discussion of race.
Get over it. It is meant to divide you and you are falling for it.
Now I will have to tirelessly ignore people on here to the point where it will be like the beartroll days where my wall will be filled with ignore posts.
Totally agree, pls take the anti-jew, racist crap somewhere else, I come here to read about Bitcoin and the occasional bit of BS. I can tolerate a little, but not when it becomes continuous. |
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This is already not true - if I interpret blockchain.info's statistics right, so far, we had four blocks with more than 1 MB (these need to include Segwit transactions), three of them mined today: - block 481947 (1,032119 MB) - block 482152 (1,00003 MB) - block 482187 (1,00003 MB) - block 482191 (1,00001 MB) So things are moving slowly, but they are moving. Maybe segwit is not yet fully active? It is fully active. It is just broken. It doesn't do what they said it would do. They told everyone it was part of a scaling solution. Obviously that is incorrect. Its not broken, its working as intended, perhaps you just don't understand it properly. Full benefits will be realised when people actually start sending to and from a segwit address. However if the spam keeps up, the transaction fees may not drop, but this would be a problem on any chain. Its worth noting that no other chain (except maybe ETH) has needed to consider scaling. None of the funky solutions in some alt coins have ever been testing under real game theory conditions. As BCH is discovering with its EDA mess. http://segwit.5gbfree.com/countsegwit.html |
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1) You either allow spam and include it in blocks, thereby making blocks bigger and bigger.
2) You price spammers out of the market.
What are the alternatives?
1) and 2) are bad for normal bitcoin users. We need 3) transactions are fast and not $2 or more. You are right we need option 3 My 1 & 2 are possible solutions, but your 3 is an objective of the solution. How do we get fast $2 transactions, other than by my methods 1 or 2? show proof jihan is spamming
oh wait, he does empty blocks, so cant be adding spam to blocks..
oh wait jihan is mining bch not btc so cant be adding spam to btc...
LOGIC!!!
you cant accuse someone of making empty blocks aswell as filling blocks of spam .. it makes no sense
I do not know if someone is spamming, but mining empty blocks and filling other blocks have the same result: unconfirmed transactions and fees pile up. There is plenty of evidence of spam. https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#3mI don't have the TX's to hand, but there are 1000's of transactions shuffling tiny amounts between 1000's of addresses. I don't think anyone is disputing that there is spam, the question is, who is causing it, and what is their motive. |
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I do not expect the bitcoin price to fall so far, because I believe it will hurt many parties, especially for those who have held their bitcoins for a long time. Well, maybe it would be fine if they had a chance to get the bitcoin they had, but if not, it would be a big loss.
Markets don't remain high because people don't want them to drop, they remain high when people are prepared to keep buying at the high price. |
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I didn't make the claim Jihan was spamming, you made the claim Blockstream was spamming, but lets face it you can't prove it. So if you can't prove it move on and don't make baseless accusations.
Its weakens the rest of your argument and makes you look silly.
i said twice and now a third time, check the stats of the june 2016 and november 2016 bips dates and the mempool/ spam attacks of those times which are what blockstream needed to scare people into adopting said bips its not my fault that you may not know where to research many think if things are spoonfed too much it cant be believed, so its much better if you really want to know the truth, that you do your own research so that you come to your own conclusion the data exists. go seek it out as for "what harm can bch do to bitcoin... its an altcoin.. it can have many many exohash of hashpower or just 1 gigahash of hash power. neither influences bitcoin because .. THEY ARE ON SEPARATE NETWORKS!! the only REAL influence is the merchant services.. if they moved away from accepting btc and instead only accept bch.. then things matter. until then an alt is just an alt I'll indulge you, I'm open minded and am happy to see what evidence you -or if you are going to make me to work for it... I - can produce. I see the spam attacks in June & Nov 2016, which BIPs are you suggesting that these attacks where designed to have influence over? Do you have anything to show they are connected with each other, or any analysis on them? |
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Show proof or evidence of the spam source being Blockstream, or is that just BS plucked out of the air?
show proof jihan is spamming oh wait, he does empty blocks, so cant be adding spam to blocks.. oh wait jihan is mining bch not btc so cant be adding spam to btc... LOGIC!!! you cant accuse someone of making empty blocks aswell as filling blocks of spam .. it makes no sense you cant accuse someone of making spam blocks on one coin while strangely hashing another. it makes no sense billy and others who love the FUD of reddit propaganda need to pick one story and stick with it because it becomes a joke when you fools flip flop the narative need proof just check the stats from last year june 2016 and november 2016.. look who needed to create panic to sway people into being pressured to accept bips released at those times.. I didn't make the claim Jihan was spamming, you made the claim Blockstream was spamming, but lets face it you can't prove it. So if you can't prove it move on and don't make baseless accusations. Its weakens the rest of your argument and makes you look silly. "oh wait jihan is mining bch not btc so cant be adding spam to btc..." LOGIC!!!, trying using some, that just doesn't make any sense spamming and mining are not linked directly. You can surely make some arbitrary link but it doesn't really hold water. |
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On the other hand what you're currently seeing with fees going up and transactions being delayed is a concerted spam effort coordinated by people trying to make it look like the bitcoin blockchain is congested and needs a controversial 2x upgrade in November which is being pushed by the NYA miners when most of the userbase and developers are against it and will not agree to their threats. It's artificial and does not represent the real economy situation.
Even if the spam is artificial, blockchain is really congested. Nothing artificial about it. We need a solution, one way or another. 1) You either allow spam and include it in blocks, thereby making blocks bigger and bigger. 2) You price spammers out of the market. What are the alternatives? |
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Roger Ver+Jihad is spamming the network heavily after segwit activation as the smart users predicted, actually very predictable. Now he is doing astroturfing everywhere, including thi forum. "See, segwit didn't work, we need a blocksize increase!"
billy change the record bitcoin cash is a separate network. you might aswell be trying to say that 42coin is a threat to bitcoin... wake up as for who is spamming, its like the last 2 years its the bscartel (blockstream +silbert) that want to convert people to segwit by making people think its beneficial to move over ASAP by using fear and panic as always.. again wake up if you want to be rational. realise the ultimate truth. until the major merchant shopping cart services flip to a different network, there is no fear. and at the moment coinbase merchant tools has more chance of flipping to litecoin than it does to any other coin. so start making people aware of litecoin as the threat... again wake up Show proof or evidence of the spam source being Blockstream, or is that just BS plucked out of the air? A fee market can stop spam, price out the spammers and move the trivial low value transactions to 2nd tier. We don't need every coffee transaction stored on the blockchain. Segwit is not the answer but it is a stepping stone that should have been implemented a long time ago, the miners holding it back have stifled development and are totally to blame for this temporary stagnation. Show proof, who says 'we don't need ...' ? You just rephrase non sense. Bitcoin needs all, or nothing. Proof, why it's not possible w/o SW. Define spam.... None of what you says makes any sense to me. |
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You guys really crack me up with these "we need to do this or that" pontifications. As if anyone here is even remotely involved in the development of Bitcoin. But by all means, go forth and make it happen!  Looks like some Core elite developer already has a M.A.D. plan ongoing: https://twitter.com/LukeDashjr/status/901233811580702720I am personally in favor of more decentralization in mining and all, so I tend to favor a change in PoW to end the Chinese miner's mafia, even if this could cause much chaos and desruption in the short to medium term. The question is if the new algo will be asic-resistant, or we'll be at square 1 in a few months. There is no escape from centralisation, all algorithms can be optimised in hardware to some extent, and centralising that hardware gives you economies of scale. You need geographic separation between devices, or guaranteed different human operators... solve that and you've got a winner People are working on it, look at this for a try https://github.com/the-laughing-monkey/cicada-platform (i'm yet to fully read it) |
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