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2201  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 27, 2013, 01:20:51 AM
it's absolute madness what people on here call crashes or even "mini crashes", seriously.

if the DOW dropped 5% in one day that would be a huge crash, no?

If we could get the DOW to rally 150% in just two months, human beings would perhaps have already landed on some planets near Alpha Centauri. Wink
2202  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 27, 2013, 12:45:01 AM
Let's make it even simpler.   How many of you have ever felt betrayed by a brother,  sister,  or even parent?

Ripple doesn't make anyone more or less trustworthy. One of its primary functions is to level the playing field currently dominated by banks.

What Ripple does in terms of evaluating trust is offer a transparent record that  is resistant to manipulation. It creates an environment where there is a strong incentive to be responsible.

Avoid knee-jerk reactions that attack, ask questions to learn Smiley

Well, just one simple question, how do I figure out my level of trust of Carol if, let's say, my level of trust of Bob is 50, and Bob's level of trust of Carol is 50, yet I don't know anything about Carol at all? If I can only issue and receive IOUs from people I personally know, then perhaps I don't need Ripple IOUs at all, as we can already do things with pen and paper, and they are actually more versatile in this aspect.
2203  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 26, 2013, 02:43:29 PM
(1.627 BTC have been traded at that exact price back then (3 trades))
just out of curiosity, did he or she ever came forward, who sold or bought back then?

Maybe they are selling right now to seize what may well be the last chance to sell below $32 Cheesy
2204  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: February 26, 2013, 01:05:51 PM
Did someone say Hard fork?

So what about fundamentals? Hehe  Grin





So let me give some bullish perspectives: OMG! Bitcoin network has processed so many transactions! It's going stronger and stronger, to da moon we go!  Grin
2205  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 26, 2013, 11:13:49 AM
Secret rocket Huh
2206  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is it a good idea to buy Bitcoin now at $29? on: February 26, 2013, 08:17:33 AM
Above silver and below an all time high. The perfect place to stay for a while attracting attention.

I'm also extremely short, hoping for a flash dump.
What do you mean by "extremely short", if you mean you sell bitcoins you have borrowed, then may I ask where did you borrow them?If you are saying "extremely short" by selling out almost all your bitcoins, (but still hold a little), then you are actally "long", there is nothing short. And you have parked fiat money there, you youself are already a factor that makes a down-trend hard.



My bad, I ment shot in the not leveraged way! Besides I'm never all long or short. In stable periods I reset to 50%/50%.

So if we stay at $30 for a month or so, I buy in again and maintain my 50%/50% Dollar value ratio by selling less and less on the way up.

Srsly, whats the merit of fractioning one's position aka never going "all-in"?
I understand that it makes sense when you trade on margin, but other then that, whats the point?
Id really like to understand your reasoning behind it.

If you have 100% bitcoins, and there is found a hole in the code which makes bitcoin worthless, then you are left with nothing. If you have 100% USD, and the fed prints a gazillion dollars overnight and everybody switches to bitcoin before you wake up, you miss the rocket and are left with nothing. Therefore, it makes sense to have some percent in each currency to lower the overall risk.

It's method that doesn't cost you more than half your money in the event of the crash out of the blue that ends Bitcoin. At the same time I'm sure that I'll get half of the value of the future all time high on my long position.

In a bear market I buy for 50% of my funds or more in the bottom of crashes and sell when the bounce back rolls off, thats where I make all of it worth while big time.

So the bulls would be laughing that Iv'e only made a doubling since $7, but I've had almost zero risk and any black swans or extreme rallies are only good news to me! ( I missed Pirates crash on the 8'th of August, sadly or I would be up 3-400% instead)

I don't either need to care about what is going to happen to Bitcoin or speculate which way it goes. It's a lot less stress full. I do however, have a live ticker on my person 24/7.

If more people traded like this, price wouldn't move much, so thanks for your recklesness.


You could just buy put options.
2207  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 26, 2013, 07:42:42 AM
nice more selling and more btc on the market

Typical bear logic:

No business using Bitcoin=no fundamental value=market crash!
More and more businesses start using Bitcoin=more selling=market crash!

Just saying. Grin
for the record i did no say that you did, you got to that conclusion i did not

I quoted you but I did not say it's you, so the"just saying" part.Wink
2208  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: February 26, 2013, 06:33:30 AM
I know very little about Ripple, but if the subprime crisis has told us anything, it's that any model which attempts to evaluate the risk/trust as a single number is very likely to fail disastrously.
2209  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 26, 2013, 05:44:13 AM
nice more selling and more btc on the market

Typical bear logic:

No business using Bitcoin=no fundamental value=market crash!
More and more businesses start using Bitcoin=more selling=market crash!

Just saying. Grin
2210  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 26, 2013, 04:26:01 AM
Sorry it may be obvious or already mentioned, given that we're talking about China

How is bitcoin going to work through the great firewall of China?

Bitcoin is probably as resilient as Tor, you will have to shutdown a large portion of the internet to decapitate the network. Besides, why?
2211  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 26, 2013, 03:44:18 AM
Bulls should take a nap and prepare for the final assault to $32 castle.
2212  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 25, 2013, 11:01:43 AM
On a related note, the BTC trades usually for 1-2 EUR higher on bitcoin.de.

What's interesting is btcchina had always traded at lower than Mt.Gox price, until recently.

take into account the rising yuan.

Btcchina displays the rate in both currencies.

Care for a link? I'd like to check that myself. I only see the yuan prices on their site.

It's the front page of the site, right above the chart there are two tables, the right table displays Mt.Gox prices in both currencies, last/max/min prices, etc, the USD is converted into CNY in real time, and the rate is up to date, if you compare the equivalent CNY price to the left column btcchina price, which is displayed in CNY only, the btcchina price is consistently higher, though not by that much ATM

We were talking about the past prices though. That's was I meant the yuan prices appear to have been lower in the past because the exchange rate yuan/usd is now higher.

At Jan 27th(I pick that day because price was relatively stable during the day), the yuan/usd rate was even higher at 1usd=6.22 yuan, the btcchina price, according to the chart on the frontpage(the "transaction price" could be seen by hovering the pointer over the data point), was ¥107.99/6.22=17.3633 usd, if btcchina uses Beijing time, the Mt.Gox price for the corresponding time-frame (it uses UTC) would be between 17.4-17.7 usd, if both use UTC time, Gox closing price would be 17.81, assuming, of course, that by "transaction price" btcchina means "closing price". Of course it is just one data point but this is generally in agreement with my own recollection.

EDIT: oh I forgot bitcoinchart's datas of btcnCNY, http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btcnCNY#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv it was actually the closing price they display on the frontpage chart.
2213  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 25, 2013, 08:50:23 AM
On a related note, the BTC trades usually for 1-2 EUR higher on bitcoin.de.

What's interesting is btcchina had always traded at lower than Mt.Gox price, until recently.

take into account the rising yuan.

Btcchina displays the rate in both currencies.

Someone wrote here last year that Btcchina did not have a live ticker and order book. They only update price in 5 minutes interval. Also the tradition in China for small investors is to speculate in bucket shops with very little to go on besides the price on the stock they are trading.

So are Chinese traders more of a gambling mentality? Do Btcchina really smell legit, have they improved?

(I'm not Chinese, despite my signature)
There has always been an orderbook as far as I am concerned. And according to the site frontpage, the local last price refreshes in real time, it's the referential Mt.Gox price that refreshes in 5 minutes interval.
2214  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 25, 2013, 08:49:25 AM
On a related note, the BTC trades usually for 1-2 EUR higher on bitcoin.de.

What's interesting is btcchina had always traded at lower than Mt.Gox price, until recently.

take into account the rising yuan.

Btcchina displays the rate in both currencies.

Care for a link? I'd like to check that myself. I only see the yuan prices on their site.

It's the front page of the site, right above the chart there are two tables, the right table displays Mt.Gox prices in both currencies, last/max/min prices, etc, the USD is converted into CNY in real time, and the rate is up to date, if you compare the equivalent CNY price to the left column btcchina price, which is displayed in CNY only, the btcchina price is consistently higher, though not by that much ATM
2215  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 25, 2013, 08:36:49 AM
On a related note, the BTC trades usually for 1-2 EUR higher on bitcoin.de.

What's interesting is btcchina had always traded at lower than Mt.Gox price, until recently.

take into account the rising yuan.

Btcchina displays the rate in both currencies.
2216  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 25, 2013, 08:25:57 AM
On a related note, the BTC trades usually for 1-2 EUR higher on bitcoin.de.

What's interesting is btcchina had always traded at lower than Mt.Gox price, until recently.
2217  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 25, 2013, 05:44:23 AM
Very well-informed article, and I could supplement it with the following picture, the Google trend for the Chinese phrase of "bitcoin":




You need to look at Baidu trend since google is blocked by the Chinese government.

http://index.baidu.com/main/word.php?word=%B1%C8%CC%D8%B1%D2

The Baidu trend is still at about 60% of the 2011 bubble. However, it has increased by 4-time since 2013, with the peak during Avalon shipping.

While looking at this I learned that red means "up" in China. Interesting.

That's true.
2218  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 25, 2013, 04:44:06 AM
Very well-informed article, and I could supplement it with the following picture, the Google trend for the Chinese phrase of "bitcoin":


2219  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 25, 2013, 04:34:22 AM
Newsflash! New exchanges increase in volume.

cool story bro tell it again.

It's not new. It has been running since July 2011

You can't wake up someone who pretends to be asleep, even when it's an earthquake. Wink
2220  Economy / Speculation / Re: What will happen when we get above 31.91 $, June 2011 high ? on: February 25, 2013, 03:59:28 AM
The high is a huge emotional pain point for many early adopters. We could see some serious pullbacks each time the battering ram swings toward $32, but the more heaves and hoes we see, the greater the gush of euphoria is going to be once we bust through that psychological wall.

Long term (over the next few weeks/months) it should all even out as we continue the organic exponential growth path of 2013.

I would think the pain would be "Damn why did I sell?"... Those people should already be sold out.

Yeah, I'm sure that plenty of people who thought we were near the top of the "bubble" and were planning on selling at $32 were just fine with selling at $29 or $28 when it dipped.

It's acutally somehow provable, look at that steep peak in June 2011: http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Too bad I couldn't find the days destroyed script, if we replace the "unspent time" factor with its power function, we could have a better idea of the early adopters' cashout activities.
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