actually the dump was predictable by the TA, its the pre-pump that confused ppl
Nice one. Also, relax people. After the 340 bottom quite a few in here pointed out that, at the very least, we would see a re-test of low 400s, maybe 400 itself before moving on. I honestly don't get where this major indignation comes from, that some of you in here show. Wait, actually, I do know: because every time we move up 10 USD you start posting rocket.jpeg. This is/was a major bear market, and getting out of it will probably be a bit more painful than simply going back through all the major (former) support levels in one go :/ |
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Hm. That escalated quickly. Looks like the 'extended triangle' suggestion from April 24 is becoming more likely. Quick Fibo update: I changed my view what the best way is to assign Fibo levels to the current uptrend. I'm now going from the April 13 low (397 USD) to the top (548 USD). Under that view, we get the following picture of retracements of the current uptrend:  We bounced off quite nicely from 62% (454 USD), but now it looks like 50% (472 USD) could act as resistance. Based on 6h momentum alone, I suspect we get another leg down almost immediately, but if we bounce off of 62% again and break through 50% soon enough on a bit of volume, I can also see the potential of a (temporary) recovery back to ~480-490. EDIT: 62% provided very little support. I expect we will eventually visit the next level, @430. |
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[reasonable argument why price analysis based on data from years ago cannot give meaningful signals for today]
You would think that, I guess. But the most successful traders would disagree with that, and prove you wrong. How many n-sigma events do you accept before you start questioning your theory? That's the question you need to ask yourself. [I'm alluding to the Buffet thing in case that wasn't clear]You surely did not pay attention, but aftter the end-of-March crash I predicted that the price would reboud to the previous levels (~550 USD) if the Caixin article turned out to be false. I may even have been the most bullish bull at the time.
That's not what I mean by "price picking up again". I meant how will you react if you're around for the next bubble cycle that takes us to a new all time high. Guess we'll find out if you're still around then. |
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AFAIK, the only model that has some claim to statistical legitimacy is the log-Brownian (or geometric-Brownian) model, which gives a very broad probability distribution, having 50% chance above today's price, 50% below, for any future date.
50% chance above and 50% below, for any future date, are you serious ? Yes. What will be the price on Nov 17, 2014, at 17:23:11 UTC? The log-Brownian model say that it will be more than 487.15 USD with 50% probability, less than that with 50% probability. (OK, there is some probability that it will be EXACTLY 487.15 USD,but it is very small.) "The log brownian model", huh? As in, Markov property all the way... And here I was thinking you would have finally come to embrace TA. This is a bit off-topic, but will you stick around when price pulls up again? I'm not even being sarcastic or anything, I really just genuinely wonder. I mean, I'm pretty bearish right now, but I have very little doubt it'll turn around eventually. And I'd actually be interested to see what your posts will look like once we're at that point. |
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It's what I believe is going to happen, so I went full fiat at 512 with the hope of buying back around 375-400 before mid may. Wish me luck
I'm sure I don't need to tell you this, but I hope you also set a stop-loss to buy back in. Decide, ahead of time, at which price you'll have to consider your previous assumptions to be proven wrong by the market, and then stick to it. 1d Ichimoku cloud comes to mind, or daily SMA200. But, whatever you pick, don't go back on your decision later unless you have extremely good reasons to do so. |
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seems entirely possible. suits my short term bearish outlook. satisfies the 'ohmigosh it can't possibly go lower' aspect of capitulation/max pain.
i like it sir!
Thanks. Combines "the bottom is in" with "the pain isn't over"... what's not to like :D |
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Let's try a new triangle, to describe the bounds of a continued bear market/consolidation, i.e. in case we don't manage to "defend" the current ~500 plateau:  Judging by how the market seemed to resolve (or at least: test) those triangles a bit ahead of time the previous instances, we might see a decisive move against the bounds of this triangle in late May/early June. |
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 It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time. It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article. Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained? Today on the 'Wall Observer': Jorge finally understands the fundamental premise of TA. :D |
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[...]
Is that around $440, in your opinion? Or $400?
As for your other comments, I guess I don't remember people feeling the same after the Gox situation. Maybe they did. It did seem like not too long before China reared its ugly "news" head.
I will say this, if this market lingers downward and then in a couple of weeks we started getting "negative news" from somewhere, (quotes suggesting that the market just chooses some news to classify as negative) and that causes more and deeper sell offs, then I am going to be watching buy volume like a hawk in the future. It will prove to me that buy pressure is much more important to the bulls recovery than a "lack of selling" pressure.
Yeah, sorry, should have phrased that more clearly. I meant the level that the first major rally takes us to after a capitulation bottom (or what looked like it at the time). So, around 630 in early March, 490-500 now. Which is, to my mind, the plateau that needs to be "defended" by a combination of lack of selling pressure (done) and sufficient buying pressure (outlook hazy). Once it was clear the plateau can't be defended (like in March 18 to 20), the panic selling started. |
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I'm not entirely sure we're out of the downtrend yet. The trendline might have been broken, but at the same time this price movement looks very fractal/self-similar to me. The previous 2 major drops have always been marked by a sharp increase directly afterwards, followed by a slowly stagnating price for a few weeks/a month, before dropping down heavily again. This pattern seems to be shaping up at the moment as well, particularly in relation to the last such cycle, which would mean price going down to $400-ish by mid-May, after which time the triangle will have long ended, leaving very little support to prevent a sharp drop. Along with this, I'm trying to apply my fibhorn technique to get a sense of price targets if the bear scenario is still relevant. While previously $260~ has seemed like a solid target, the latest price developments seem to be painting an increasingly bearish picture, with a 0 level at $160 making a very good fit, and it pings nicely with earlier price movements as well. Then again, ratio analysis seems to support a bottom nearer my original $260~ prediction. If one looks at the ratio of the previous peak-drop (710-340), and applies it to the latest peak of $540, the result is $270.  I suppose it's possible the $250-270 range may act as support, which will be immediately followed by a sharp rise and yet another cycle taking us to $160 bottom, like so;  Good trading opportunity if true  This is all, of course, nooby fringe TA, and only even remotely relevant if the bear trend is still on, so take it as you will. If daily SMA50 and 100 are broken, I will consider the bull market confirmed. Until then, I remain undecided, leaning towards being a bear. Just my 2 satoshi  My gut would tend to agree with you. And my instincts are normally spot on. However, there is a truth that if everyone refuses to sell, that the bear market can't continue. And it seems like fewer and fewer people are willing to sell on the exchanges that control the price. Why do it, when you can sell off exchange and not make the price go down? (I'm talking to you miners). As much as there isn't demand to push the price up, the question then becomes who is left to sell? I know it seems like the answer to that question has plenty of answers, but it even felt like the last capitulation to 340 was basically agreed on by everyone in advance. Now it seems like everyone is agreeing to wait it out until we go up. That sounds, on its face, like sheer lunacy. But there is more than a 0% chance that this is actually a close description to the situation at hand.I actually think that perfectly describes the current situation. But you're forgetting one thing, imo: that already was the situation in early March, or pretty close to it. The big panic moments seemed behind us. Holders vowed to not panic another time. "This time we will just hodl, no matter what". But then the low level selling pressure (China? Mining? Both?) slowly made the price grind down, and that always has a habit of turning 'I swear, I will never again panic' holders into, well, panic sellers. That's on the horizon again, unless the price level where we landed after the initial euphoric swing can be sustained this time. |
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2014 is one entire bear trap. We will witness in December a spike that dwarfs the last one to just a tiny bump on the charts.
Depends on your perspective. How was it "one entire bear trap" to sell at 995 in January and buy back more than twice as many coins at several points following 2014?
Your position probably is: hold now, or regret it later when we make a new ATH. A competent trader's response would be: why does being short now have to be mutually exclusive with profiting from another ATH rally in the future? That would be profiting from the bear trap, aka avoiding the bear trap by re-buying when it is low. It still is a bear trap in the sense that weak hands have sold off their coins they bought in January and will miss out on the spike this September to $350k. 350k in September, huh? Where have I heard that before... Oh whatever. Some bulls in here are just hopeless :/ |
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2014 is one entire bear trap. We will witness in December a spike that dwarfs the last one to just a tiny bump on the charts.
Depends on your perspective. How was it "one entire bear trap" to sell at 995 in January and buy back more than twice as many coins at several points following 2014? Your position probably is: hold now, or regret it later when we make a new ATH. A competent trader's response would be: why does being short now have to be mutually exclusive with profiting from another ATH rally in the future? |
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[...]
I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%). What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all. I think we are going down too. But it looks like its going to be slow and painful. Despite this really boring "contraction" I don't see a major move. I think its going to be like March, a slow boring bleed out. I think every resistance point is going to resist. It may take us weeks to have a chance of a real volume fight. Actually, I'm not saying we're going down for sure. Imagine the following 4 near term (> 1 day, < 1 month) scenarios, and how likely you think they are: sudden & sharp move up, sudden & sharp move down, slow grind down, slow grind up. Personally I consider the sudden move down more likely than the sudden move up (because right now it looks like 500 is more resistance than support, so if at all, whales will get nervous holding rather than missing the train). But more likely than any sudden and big move is, imo, a slower move in either direction. I guess we both agree on that (since you mention "slow and painful"). My point is, I can see a continued slow grind down, (and consider it slightly more likely right now), but I am well prepared to admit a slow grind up if we finally find some buying support. Well it looks like slow grind down is the most likely as that is what we are seeing. In fact its what we saw in march and with the exception of 2 fat green candles its all we've seen since 547 too. I think some more fat green candles are also likely, meaning 3 steps down and 2 steps up kind of action with the slow grind happening to make its way down again each time. I think fat red candles are also possible, if fear starts to creep back into the market. But the market seems so much more bullish than it did even in March in some ways. So it may take us a while for fear to come back. Even on this board everyone is so cheerful. And our bearish trolls haven't even been around. Why? Because they're long. LOL! Slow grind up? This would surprise me. Because that would only come if we were actually in a bullish market. But without some fat green candles coming from somewhere, then we are still in a bear market. So we would need some sign of reversal first. We probably see things very similar. But I invite you to go back to July 2013 and look at volume and fibo levels in the first month after the bottom: Observation 1: Volume was surprisingly lackluster Observation 2: We saw a combination of a sharp move down (the dump on July 18th) and slow grind down (slipping through the fibo levels with little support at first). (EDIT: the other way around, actually. Slipping through the first retracement level with little support, then the big dump (perhaps as a reaction to the former, by an overly cautious whale). After the dump, the reversal really started to form.) Ultimately however, things turned around, without any drastic change, just that volume picked up a bit, and price found support (following July 18th), and suddenly we broke through the previous post-capitulation high (minimally below 100 on bitstamp) and from then on we were on track again. Kind of. That's all I'm saying: I'm prepared to look for relatively subtle signs of a reversal, because in the past, that's all we got as well. |
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[...]
I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%). What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all. I think we are going down too. But it looks like its going to be slow and painful. Despite this really boring "contraction" I don't see a major move. I think its going to be like March, a slow boring bleed out. I think every resistance point is going to resist. It may take us weeks to have a chance of a real volume fight. Actually, I'm not saying we're going down for sure. Imagine the following 4 near term (> 1 day, < 1 month) scenarios, and how likely you think they are: sudden & sharp move up, sudden & sharp move down, slow grind down, slow grind up. Personally I consider the sudden move down more likely than the sudden move up (because right now it looks like 500 is more resistance than support, so if at all, whales will get nervous holding rather than missing the train). But more likely than any sudden and big move is, imo, a slower move in either direction. I guess we both agree on that (since you mention "slow and painful"). My point is, I can see a continued slow grind down, (and consider it slightly more likely right now), but I am well prepared to admit a slow grind up if we finally find some buying support. |
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The train is rocketing up right now.
The train has slowed down but it is still going up.
We're going up after this brief consolidation.
We're going up after a long consolidation.
We're going up after this small dip.
We're going up after a large dip.
Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.
It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.
It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.
I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%). What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all. This makes a lot of sense. The 'bottoms' that people have called so far have seemed far too bouncy for me. I don't know a great deal about TA and the way markets move, but shouldn't a capitulation be a bit more depressingly flat, rather than recovering 30% in a matter of hours/days? Depends, I'd say. In July 2013 we saw an almost immediate recovery of more than 50% up from the final capitulation bottom. Then we lost a lot of that in the following week(s), especially through one large dump on July 18. What made the reversal last however (imo) was how price found support across some of the levels. It went quite low, but touched the 61% retracement once. Then recovered really beautifully. 20 days after the first post capitulation swing up, we had a new high. That's the situation I'm (more or less) looking for to consider we've really left the bear market of 2014 behind. |
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The train is rocketing up right now.
The train has slowed down but it is still going up.
We're going up after this brief consolidation.
We're going up after a long consolidation.
We're going up after this small dip.
We're going up after a large dip.
Ok it's crashing but it's not going to go below the last support.
It's only going to go a little bit past the last support.
It could go anywhere but fundamentals will bring it back up eventually.
I'm convinced we'll see ~470 again pretty soon (38% fibo), and probably ~440 as well (50%). What matters is how price will react to to those levels. Going through them with no support: March false breakout all over again. Putting up a fight: Maybe it's July 2013 after all. |
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The proliferation of Bitcoin trading and ATM's is going on everywhere. Meanwhile, this thread is the greatest trollhouse I have ever seen. I would suggest everyone to spend as much time reading something else than you read Adam Smith's Wall Observer, to have even a balanced picture of what is going on.
I remember you saying a while ago you wouldn't post much here (this forum, that is) anymore. Guess the overwhelming demand of your loyal fans kept you here, huh? |
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Funds delivered. Dorian says his thanks. Andreas in background, looking slightly shell shocked :P https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7YmJZ-qVW8Great job, Andreas, and donators of course. Also, since comments for the video are disabled, I have to say it here.... "each one of you gives me a little tick in my heart"? ... Dorian is just too adorable. |
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Any news from Arepo?
Nothing. I really hope he comes back with a good explanation. |
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Bears are really weak these days :-X
Nah... bears are bored, just like the bulls. Problem is, if everyone's bored in this market, price usually goes down until we are not bored anymore :D |
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