Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Let's play a game:
Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

# 6. OKCoin.

[JayJuanGee]

Let's play a game:

"Things more exciting than Houbi."

#1. A rusty bucket
#2. Paint drying
#3. Grass growing
#4. Meditation
#5. Nail clipping

Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

NOW>>>> as I type, ... volume is picking up on Stamp and bitfinex and the others are beginning to follow....  The price is dropping.. maybe $5 in the last 20 minutes...  HOWEVER... .how low will it go?  $470?  or $450?  Maybe I will buy a little bit if it goes below $450

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[edwardspitz]

Let's play a game:
Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

# 6. OKCoin.

Yes I second that. OKCoin is a curious place these days.

[molecular]

What is CCMF?

crypto currency moon forecasting

LOL, thanks, would have never guessed that And even Uncle Google was not helpful.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/choo-choo-motherfucker

[Jeezy911]

Darkblackguyshadowcoin seems to be doing well.

[KeyserSoze]

Well that is a shame. $480 before $580. I say it's a failure of science.

[ChrisML]

Let's play a game:

"Things more exciting than Houbi."

#1. A rusty bucket
#2. Paint drying
#3. Grass growing
#4. Meditation
#5. Nail clipping

Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

NOW>>>> as I type, ... volume is picking up on Stamp and bitfinex and the others are beginning to follow....  The price is dropping.. maybe $5 in the last 20 minutes...  HOWEVER... .how low will it go?  $470?  or $450?  Maybe I will buy a little bit if it goes below $450

You haven't bought anything the last 4 times it was at or below $450?

[TERA]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

[Raystonn]

We have a new 3-day low.  That's not so bullish.  Unfortunate.

Im not sure what you mean by that, yesterday we visited 486 on stamp, not seen that again. BTC china is in a contracting range/wedge. The bullrun is losing momentum but the bias is not bearish.

You answered yourself with your last sentence.  If we can make a new 3-day low once, we can make it again pretty easily.  The next major line of support is at 472.50.  If we breach that we're in bear territory, with the next major supports at 454, 400, and 355.50.  If we bounce off 472.50 and break above 515, that would be a pretty good bull sign.

Between 472.50 and 515 is no-man's land.  We float with no conviction in either direction.

We edge closer and closer to 472.50.  I expect to find some support there.  If we break through, we will head down quickly and finally reach capitulation.  If we remain above 472.50, I expect more boring drift.

[JorgeStolfi]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

[JayJuanGee]

Let's play a game:

"Things more exciting than Houbi."

#1. A rusty bucket
#2. Paint drying
#3. Grass growing
#4. Meditation
#5. Nail clipping

Feel free to join in the fun by naming things you think are more exciting than Houbi.

NOW>>>> as I type, ... volume is picking up on Stamp and bitfinex and the others are beginning to follow....  The price is dropping.. maybe $5 in the last 20 minutes...  HOWEVER... .how low will it go?  $470?  or $450?  Maybe I will buy a little bit if it goes below $450

You haven't bought anything the last 4 times it was at or below $450?

My practice has been to buy BTC in increments over time, and I bought several times while the price was below $450. 

my buying increments look like this.... if that means anything.

452.70
446.44
439.82
428.68
418.60
456.35
453.61
444.93
427.50
412.00
341.19
406.26
394.59
440.89
413.60
416.04
454.65

I ran out of fiat while the price was in the $300s, so I was only able to buy a little bit of BTC while the price was in the $300 price range.  I am O.k. if the price does NOT go below $450 again, but that price just happens to be my next approximate buy point. 

Of course, I were to be fairly certain that BTC prices will fall lower than $450, then I will wait for the lower price to buy at the lowest possible price, but as we know waiting too long can sometimes be a mistake because the lowest price dips seem to come fairly rapidly and do NOT last too long... and even if they last for a period of time we cannot be certain how long it will last or whether the price will be going lower.

[JayJuanGee]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[el_rlee]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

Certainly not.

A negative Bitcoin price is highly unlikely

On a more serious note: Mining profits are still too good for the ones having access to hardware so the selling will continue until the difficulty catches up...

[TERA]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is surprising to see a pattern, since most of the ups and downs are clearly related to external events -- such as the "bug in bitcoin" and the Caixin article.  Perhaps these just trip the spring that some "market sentiment cycle" has strained?

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

The trend as a whole is being driven by one simple thing - a lack of buyers and volume (and perhaps a pile of a million coins that need to be dumped, but we're not sure of that). Supply > Demand, and has been since January when the big Chinese players left. It is the waves inbetween that are being pronounced via good news and bad news, but neither of them affect the larger trend.

I do agree that the trend seems to have gotten weaker ("running out of steam") on that last leg down. However, it is not technically over.  The end of the trend should be marked by another high volume wave down which does not establish a lower trading range, like a W pattern.

[windjc]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It won't go on forever, imo.

[JayJuanGee]

It's such a simple and consistent pattern - I don't know why everyone is so suprised every time.

It is NOT going to last forever, is it?  And isn't the pattern running out of steam (which is motor running on FUD)

Certainly not.

A negative Bitcoin price is highly unlikely

On a more serious note: Mining profits are still too good for the ones having access to hardware so the selling will continue until the difficulty catches up...

How would we know the percentage of freshly mined bitcoins that are being dumped onto the market?

 I can see that dumping happening with some of the big pools to some degree in order to weed out some of the competition by selling while they are still making a profit and accordingly discouraging some of the smaller operations that are NOT making a profit.

However, contrarily, I would think that the miners as a whole may have an incentive to be strategic with their dumping and to hold their BTC for a while in order that the price would go up... which it seems that we are on the low end, regarding BTC prices,  at this point.

So they have competing and conflicting incentives that each of them are going to come to different calculations regarding how to proceed to maximize their own personal profits.

[windjc]

Houbi is remarkable. It literally takes 3000+ CYNs of volume to move it down 10 points.

[windjc]

If Miners are smart and big enough they should (and probably are) creating a futures contract with buyers. This would protect everyone involved.