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2241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 05:37:26 PM
Well actually Dutch government wants some coins too.
official statement from minister of finance (Dijsselbloem)
source: http://www.nu.nl/internet/3495285/inkomsten-in-bitcoins-worden-belast.html
He happens to be head of EU finance at the moment as well.
also Canadian government wants coin. Roll Eyes

Wow. They actually asked a parliamentary question. Onwards and upwards.

I wish  they didn't. The longer governments (especially mine) stay in the dark the better. They will fight when they notice they are losing power ...

I think the secret is out.... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/42ca6762-bbfc-11e2-82df-00144feab7de.html#axzz2W1SYnNEA
2242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 05:33:03 PM
Well actually Dutch government wants some coins too.
official statement from minister of finance (Dijsselbloem)
source: http://www.nu.nl/internet/3495285/inkomsten-in-bitcoins-worden-belast.html
He happens to be head of EU finance at the moment as well.
also Canadian government wants coin. Roll Eyes

Wow. They actually asked a parliamentary question. Onwards and upwards.
2243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 05:21:39 PM
but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?
What do you mean?

This can swing both ways, good or bad.

If you attract the attention of the EU officials (in Brussels, you cannot *not* bump into them), you put BTC on the EU map which is potentially a good thing, but you also risk exposing it to unwanted regulation, which could be a hindrance.

I'd be interested to know how things turn out in Helsinki.
Maybe a stupid question from my side, however i could not think of a answer.
How do you see Brussel ( or an other government ) regulate Bitcoin?

They could ban the use of the Bit-tips, for ex. That would put a stop to the initiative.



But the reptile knows some good saunas he could entertain them in. Those officials like things like that!
2244  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 04:59:07 PM
but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?
What do you mean?

This can swing both ways, good or bad.

If you attract the attention of the EU officials (in Brussels, you cannot *not* bump into them), you put BTC on the EU map which is potentially a good thing, but you also risk exposing it to unwanted regulation, which could be a hindrance.

I'd be interested to know how things turn out in Helsinki.

Would you be surprised if senior members of HM Government (HMRC/MOD/Treasury), are talking to prominent members of the UK Bitcoin community? The attention phase has passed.

Oh, I think it's just starting.

It started a few months ago, and is a continuing dialogue.
2245  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 04:45:21 PM
but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?
What do you mean?

This can swing both ways, good or bad.

If you attract the attention of the EU officials (in Brussels, you cannot *not* bump into them), you put BTC on the EU map which is potentially a good thing, but you also risk exposing it to unwanted regulation, which could be a hindrance.

I'd be interested to know how things turn out in Helsinki.

Would you be surprised if senior members of HM Government (HMRC/MOD/Treasury), are talking to prominent members of the UK Bitcoin community? The attention phase has passed.
2246  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 04:34:01 PM
Businesses want to make money. You said you are a capitalist, right. Well, if you could drop visa, mastercard, etc. and increase some of your sales profits by 2%-4%, why would you "snub" that?

There is some small ideas and big ideas to enforce BTC, though. We already gave Bitcointip in Haikko, and I am likely extending it to Punavuori (an area in the center part of Helsinki where about 5000-10000 people live). We will dole out free millibitcoins as bills, and inform all the restaurants there that if they serve their clients well, they will receive tips (because tips are already there in the hands of their clientele - we have give them out for free to all the inhabitants Smiley Then the restaurants can cash them in for euros, or redeem them for actual bitcoins. Or keep them in circulation as bitcoin-denominated change.

July 7th, the restaurants in central-southern Helsinki area would all be delivered a bulletin, concerning What is Bitcointip. They are small bills that soon will come to circulation and can at any time be exhanged for euros, or redeemed as physical bitcoins by bringing them to an exchange point (the area where this experiment is conducted is only about 100 acres (40 ha) and walkable. After a restaurateur sign, the tip is redeemable.

There are only about 5600 apartments below a certain line that classifies the area as South-Helsinki. These all can be delivered by mass mailing. Actually we believe that most of the salvos empty themselves in the trashcan, so the payload would be about 800 bitcoin-sheets which is 3,200 bitcointip notes. Free money can also be given on the streets to the ones who know. We need several Bitcoin-T-shirts for that (remember my earlier idea if the summit were oversold...)

There are about 300 restaurants in the area, I believe we have quite good ratios, if the number of actually usable tipnotes exceeds the restaurants by a factor of 10.

I thought the restaurant approach might work in Brussels as well (many restaurants in a tight area), but then, do you want to attract the attention of the EU?

They already know   http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/virtualcurrencyschemes201210en.pdf)
2247  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 04:09:47 PM
I assume crashing would mean dumping a lot of coins. So they'd buy all they can get, which drives the price higher and then they dump. But selling coins needs two parties - a seller and a buyer. The after-crash price is determined by demand. What I want to say: I don't think they could ever bring it down to 1/10000 or something, because people will buy in and I assume the ratio between high and low of the after crash (i.e. 1/5, 1/16 you mentioned above) will shrink proportional to the gain before the crash.

Government currency manipulation... You may want to ask this guy about that...



And Mr Soros
2248  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] AMC-The Official Active Mining Cooperative Discussion on: June 12, 2013, 04:07:26 PM
This debate is both interesting and fun, but why are we debating so hard about the best way to sell more shares if Ken didn't say AMC needed more money ATM ?

"This was just a little test to see how the market reacted to a few shares (~150,000) being sold.  We are starting to spin up Avalon boards to get ready for the 20,000 chips we have on order.  In the next few weeks there may be a need for increased capital.  I am working hard to increase the price of AMC's shares and get the most value from the shares that AMC still holds."
2249  Economy / Securities / Re: Starting a new FPGA mining farm/contract! Cognitive Resurrected on [BTC-TC] on: June 12, 2013, 04:02:27 PM
Yup I've already begged them to do this... never a response out of them regarding it.

Good thing our order is pretty low!

Assuming they do ship Grin

Maybe we can pay more money to have them do that?

I think Yifu was asked the same question. Good of him to dismiss it, i thought.
2250  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] Asset Exchange Marketplace + Rewritable Options Trading on: June 12, 2013, 03:32:14 PM
Hey guys,

I will be in London for a week or so starting this Thurs. 13th of June.

If anyone would like to meet up in the afternoon / evening for food and drinks, I will be available Thursday night. Smiley

If you are interested, drop me a PM on the forums. I will try to get back to you by Thursday noon at the latest.

I know this is isn't a the meetup subforum, however this is more of a 'Hey who's around' than a bitcoin meet. Wink

See you soon!

Is tomorrow night the only night you can do?

Cheers
2251  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] AMC-The Official Active Mining Cooperative Discussion on: June 12, 2013, 10:47:19 AM
The Avalon thread is reporting order status changes for order numbers #16xx. We are waiting for #1865.
2252  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] AMC-The Official Active Mining Cooperative Discussion on: June 12, 2013, 10:40:26 AM
BigDude,


The best way to buy shares of AMC is through bitfunder.com
The price is set based upon supply and demand as determined by the bids and asking prices of people who use Bitfunder.


Essentially, you are saying that because you are prepared to buy 2,000,000 shares at the artificially low price of .0005 right now, that Ken should make a deal with you, outside of the market.

Your post seems like you are soliciting such a deal. As long as you are making an argument for why Ken should sell shares directly, why shouldn't he make an offer to the investors who have shown confidence in AMC already, and offer those 2,000,000 million shares to all the investors who already own over 1,000,000 shares?  Why should such an offer be made to you, BigDude?

You seem to be aiming my general comments about large investors at me personally - so don't. My comments are not solicitation of any kind. If I really did want to do that, I would go direct, no mucking around. And I certainly wouldn't have just voiced an opinion - and it is only that ... my opinion. My point about being a large investor, is that there is another side of the coin. It's no so simple as looking at it from one point of view.

A few points to make:

1. In the real world, we are talking Nasdaq and the like. There are institutional book builds done when an IPO or large share placement is done. This is the reality. And that was simply the point I was making. These book builds are where the big boys with the big $$$ essentially bid against each other for the shares. Once finalised, these are STILL at a discount to retail investors.

2. Continuing on from point 1. The business doing the IPO, they don't say hey, you have to pay retail prices that is best for our company. It doesnt work like that. They need the big $$$ coming in, yes even at a discount, in order to complete the placement of shares. Again, this was simply my point.

3. You ask Why should an offer be made to me? I never said it should, I am no one special. My point, again, is that if there are large investors willing to invest large sums into AMC, as a shareholder I would be ok with them doing that at a bit of a discount - because I understand the realities of points 1 and 2 above. Large investors are GOOD for the business, and good for shareholders. It's a sign of confidence.

Your post seems like you are soliciting such a deal. As long as you are making an argument for why Ken should sell shares directly, why shouldn't he make an offer to the investors who have shown confidence in AMC already, and offer those 2,000,000 million shares to all the investors who already own over 1,000,000 shares?  Why should such an offer be made to you, BigDude?

That's an exellent idea ... and yes, he should do that. He should make such an offer to those investors. Again, this was not about me. It's about AMC.


And, why should 2,000,000 shares at .0005 be sold to you? You have no obligation not to just turn around and sell those shares immediately for .0008. Essentially, you are asking Ken to just give you 600 bitcoin for buying a large block of shares. At the moment, that is a gift of $60,000 for buying $100,000 shares.

Again, not about me.
 
How does AMC benefit from that sort of deal with you instead of just offering the 2,000,000 shares at market price and waiting for smaller investors, as an aggregate to buy up the shares?

2 million shares at .0008251 (the price now) is 1650.2 bitcoin. If sold to you and .0005, AMC would only get 1000 bitcoin. Should AMC lose out on a potential 650 bitcoin (or $65,000 at today's exchange rate) just because you are a "large investor"?

Should google, facebook, or any other company in the world listed on the stock exchanges not offer large investors discounts too? There are reasons they do it. That is my point.

Lets say AMC wants to release 15 million shares right now because they need the funds to buy equipment NOW, right now. But then it takes a long time for those 15 million shares to be soaked up at full retail rates. This is one of the big reasons book builds are done with large investors. It guarantees that the business with get the funds ... and its good for the company, its good for investors.

What price, what discount ... that's up to the AMC. But yes, I think there should be one - if its needed.


Further, even a deal done outside of the exchange would affect the market price, if not immediately, then eventually, since eventually, those share would get sold and that increased supply, when it does hit the market, would lower the price of the stock. It is simple economics and supply and demand.

That is only one scenario. Another scenario is that someone comes in, buys 10,000,000 million shares, adds excellent stability, legitimacy, and liquidity to AMC - then AMC is able to make very large investments in chips, hardware etc. The market sees this, and more people want in, pushing the price up.

You see, you dont have a crystal ball, and neither do I.

No, BigDude, the only one who would benefit from such an outside deal would be you. AMC would not benefit, existing large investors in AMC would not benefit and Ken would not benefit from such a deal.

Again, its not about me. It's about AMC and shareholder value. You say AMC would not benefit. That's your OPINION. My OPINION is that it would.


Any chance to sell a portion of 15m at a discount, is perfectly fine with me. At the moment off-loading 15m seems a big ask (no pun intended!).
2253  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] AMC-The Official Active Mining Cooperative Discussion on: June 12, 2013, 09:59:00 AM
or if you like ... he can use "Options Trading" set the price and sell directly to  buyer..

Yes, this might function as a workaround for the time being! Grin

For selling, for example at 0.0008, Ken could issue a "Call Option" of 5,000,000 shares with an expiration of one day at a strike price of 0.0007 and option price of 0.0001 (or 0.00011111) and breakable ofc.

Since BitFunder takes a 10% cut of the option price (not of the strike price), having it at 0.0001 keeps fees low, while at the same time gets costly for anyone trying to undermine the sell by buying the option without executing it. Issuing options daily with an expiration time of one day also serves this purpose. Anyone buying the option without executing it is also paying BTC to AMC. Smiley

(On the example above, AMC gets this way: 0.0007+0.0001*0.9 = 0.00079/share or 0.0007+0.00011111*0.9 = 0.00079999/share).

I haven't agreed with your wish to 'over' control (my interpretation  Smiley ) the price, but for the purpose of issuing shares, the above kinda works. Trying to work out worst case scenarios??  
2254  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 12, 2013, 09:26:05 AM
My advice for everybody but the most astute daytraders now:

Buy as many bitcoins as you can, regardless of the price or timing. The price and timing will be secondary as the next upleg commences, and commences it will, once there is anything that you can do with bitcoins.

I bought 2,000,000mBTC in September-October 2012. At times I was down 15%. Do you think that now I would give a thought about the exact price or timing? I would, had I not bought the coins.

Everyone who holds anything else as investment except bitcoins has diversified to the detriment of their financial interest.

Had you not bought coins then, would you have needed the treatment you appear to receive, today?

Just wondered if there is a public health issue surrounding the involvement with Bitcoin, i should look out for.
2255  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Large bitcoin mining farm mining 4 blocks a day having made 1600BTC on: June 11, 2013, 10:12:23 PM
I know who it is Smiley    Good work detectives. 

I bet you don't know, as the block are coming from all around the world.


I know.   
If you have anything constructive to add it would help. If not I'll just presume you're using this as a way of advertising your business.

Interesting choice of picture, you both chose.
2256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 11, 2013, 12:02:26 PM
Just thought I would introduce myself, since I haven't been on this forum very long, although I have been reading it for the last several thousand posts.

I'm in Australia (but not Australian), I heard about bitcoins through traditional media back in April.  It sparked my interest but I was too busy to be able to allocate any significant time to investigating further.  I speculatively bought in at the beginning of May when price was £60 (sorry, I trade in GBP), having just missed £50.  Watched price go up to £87 at the end of May, didn't sell (regretfully) and then watched it drop to £70, at which point I cashed out.  Made a tidy profit (almost entirely by luck) but not as much as it could have been, but that's trading for you.

I'm a trader by day job (commodities, FOREX) and so I was very interested to see what was happening with bitcoin.  Some observations that I thought I'd share with you, primarily to give you an insight into the perspective of a non-mining, non-IT guy with little knowledge of bitcoin but extensive knowledge of traditional markets (and these are the probbaly the same type of guys who are currently manipulating the bitcoin value):

* bitcoin can be compared to neither commodities nor fiat currency at this stage.  It doesn't have the trading volume to be considered a currency (you can't get in and out quickly and you can't use leverage) and it doesn't have a substantial supply/demand market, nor a real 'use' (yet) to be considered comparable to a commodity
* as such, drawing any kind of line on a chart is utterly pointless, since the usual 'rules' (which are dubious in any case) certainly won't apply here.  Even more so considering that past history (pre-April, say) did not include many traders such as myself.  Now it does, so previous trends can be ignored since we now have a lot of price manipulation going on
* price movements are currently being caused entirely by speculation (or 99% at least)
* steady, sustainable price growth will only occur with a much higher volume of trades and with mass adoption
* the volatility of the price is what has attracted day/short term traders
* the illiquidity of the market is what has caused fiat to leave in recent weeks (this was my reason, it became too difficult to capitalise on price fluctuations unless they were arounf 5% due to lack of bid volume)

So, my conclusion (as unhelpful as it is) is that nobody can predict the price of bitcoin since it does not follow any traditional rules.  As such, you can dive in and then jump out again, over a period of time, with a 50/50 chance of making a gain.  Unless you have a very large holding through which you can temporarily manipulate the price.

I'm currently 100% fiat again, looking for a suitable price to buy back in (very speculatively, I'm looking at something around USD52, since I think USD50 will be a psychological trigger with mass-buy in, that will see the beginning of a steady, sustainable, non-bubbled climb)

Having said all this, the more I learn about bitcoin, the more I think that it has fantastic potential.  However, you simply can't allow emotion to influence your position.  Anyone who is trading based on the "bitcoin ideology" is, frankly, exceptionally foolish. Holding some bitcoins that you can afford to lose, in the hope that a bitcoin will be worth $1k in a few years, is fine.  Holding some bitcoins that you can't afford to lose, in the hope that a bitcoin will be worth $1k in a few years, is absurd.

I appreciate that posters get shot down for all sorts of reasons here but I'm just sharing with you what I believe, based on my experience of traditional trading.  I don't know anything about mining, bitcoin history or the current or future impact of Silk Road, and as a trader nor am I really that interested. Hope it helps and more than happy to discuss further.

And a final thing - should I make Jaroslaw my first ignoree?!

Good post. Nice one.

As you have eluded to the pro trading interest currently.....what do you think is stopping a few well-backed traders, from completely owning the manipulation thats possible on the Gox order book? Would seem an interesting project from a quant's point of view, dont you think?  
2257  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] AMC-The Official Active Mining Cooperative Discussion on: June 11, 2013, 11:53:01 AM
Guys, the problem is pretty simple actually.

AMC needs to sell more shares, as it only sold 5M out of the initial 15M. --> AMC tries to sell more shares, at market price. --> AMC keeps being undercut. --> AMC thus, doesn't sell anything, or very little. --> AMC doesn't get the additional funds it needs, at the time it needs. --> AMC dies of starvation.

Please provide ways to solve this problem. Smiley

My solution is a primary/secondary market like everyone else is doing outside bitcoin. Smiley

If Ken wants to sell @ .0008, but people undercut him, it means there is not enough demand for the share at that price.
Then he needs to lower the price, it's quite simple actually.

Any way of distorting the market by selling behind closed doors, will eventually affect the share price and shareholders in a negative way.

I don't want to be a part of "what will be ken's next move" - speculation game once again. And that is what it will become if we have closed market selling.
+1

Ditto +1
2258  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Why is UK so slow to jump on this? on: June 10, 2013, 10:14:54 AM
Legal
Bitcoin is subject to AML/KYC laws. This has caught out a lot of people in the UK. (e.g. http://bitcoinmagazine.com/interview-with-glbses-nefario/ )

...

It's not formally recognised as a currency, but it is recognized as a virtual currency scheme (http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/virtualcurrencyschemes201210en.pdf) but that comes with very little legislation.

So, it's subject to anti-money laundering laws, but isn't money?

Who would have known 'they' were taking notice of this around 1 year ago. Any significant nodes in Brussels!!?

Cheers monsterer/ItsDom.
2259  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Avalon batch [2] countdown! on: June 09, 2013, 08:44:00 PM
Reverse psychology.  Cool

Quote
technique involving the advocacy of a belief or behavior that is opposite to the one desired, with the expectation that this approach will encourage the subject of the persuasion to do what actually is desired: the opposite of what is suggested.

Dont press the big red button.
2260  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 09, 2013, 03:15:46 PM
Are you guys clocking whats happening to the order book. Multiple, and i mean multiple 0.0100 are being repeatedly entered onto the book at every possible price. Watch the orders close at the current price, increasing and decreasing by 0.0100 every second.

It's order book spam - it slows the exchange down if someone dumps big and introduces lag.

Yep, i know what it is, just havnt seen it so relentless before. Gox seems to be handling it ok though.
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