There are no "definitely(s)" in bitcoinlandia...

Even your prognosis of "down" seems out of context, wishful thinking and out of the direction of the current trend, which seems to make up or sideways more likely.. than down...

I am not saying that I know direction, and there are a variety of possibilities at his price point and none of them are "definite" until after they have actually taken place.

It's only been 2 months in BTC, so far.  quite a bit more can happen in 10 months, no?

You were making all kinds of points to attempt to normalize the idea about the greatness of hardforks as compared with softforks and attempting to assert that bitcoin had done it a lot in it's history, therefore, no big deal blah blah blah and some more bullshit characterizations.

Then Gmaxwell apparently concedes with you about the fact that ONE hardfork had actually taken place, but left it up to you to attempt to describe that even if you had gotten one fact correct, how getting that one fact correct would make any one of your other points to being close to correct - which apparently, you are having difficulties with achieving with either logic or additional facts.

And, further in this subsequent post, you go on some kind of additional tangent to again attempt to bring greater credence to the fact that you may have gotten one fact correct (that one successful hard fork had already occurred with bitcoin).  In the end, so fucking what. ... we all can agree that a hardfork had taken place under a certain set of circumstances historically, but those same certain circumstances do not necessary exist today or justify that a hardfork today would either be a necessary or prudent course of action.

In other words, the burden is still on you to describe with facts and/or logic concerning how a hardfork today would be a prudent or necessary course of action in bitcoin  in spite the conceded fact that a hardfork had occurred one time in the past under a specific set of circumstances that do not seem to be the circumstances of today, right?

I don't disagree with you; however, overall folks seem to be a bit less naive, overall about this double edged sword aspect of bitcoin as compared with a few years ago.

Accordingly, currently, there are a lot less folks out there asserting that bitcoin is anonymous, and there are also quite a few folks (even through seg wit related solutions apparently) working on various possible ways to attempt to achieve some better anonymity.

You are describing an ongoing practice of a multitude of traders, and from looking at these kinds of factors over such a short period, you cannot determine who or motive and it does not even really matter that much because the essence of the matter is that prices went up more than 10% in one day and the momentum is up, even if some folks want to slow down such upward momentum and are hoping that it will reverse.. You cannot really tell what is going to happen, including if someone might be preparing to dumb 1000 coins.. and maybe get some success and maybe not.

Yeah Fakhoury... that article kind of supplements another article that you had posted in the past regarding bitcoin jobs...

30 more bitcoin jobs.. .. interesting.

Nah.. that is unrealistic ...

bitcoin bulls, such as draper, don't dump btc in such a way to try to tank the price, unless they become either jaded or rage quitting...

You expect to get nearly a 10% increase in a couple of days without any bumps in the road?  Of course we are going to get dumps here and there, but then the question is whether those dumps are great enough to either stop the overall upwards or to reverse us... Way too early to know at this point, and way too early to know how many coins are available and are going to be thrown at this particular situation.

 I think regarding $820.. we have ourselves a decent cushion and even a change in the momentum, but you are correct that we can never know for sure in bitcoinlandia...

At the moment, it does seem that we had found the bottom in the mid $700s and then sufficiently bounced out of their in order to resume upwards a bit... .. but yeah, I never want to count my chickens too soon, either.

You are exaggerating.

Of course several of us get excited when we see price movement in either direction, and sometimes some of us may exaggerate for real and sometimes for fun...

Price movement is the topic of this thread, so of course there is going to be enthusiasm from time to time about the topic, and especially when the price seems to be moving more, when trade volume is picking up and when there seems to be a lot going on in the background .. such as the apparent price battle that has been going on for nearly four weeks, now, if not longer...

Hadn't you noticed that BTC prices pretty much went up nonstop for more than three months and nearly doubled..  , and sure there has been quite a bit more too, but we have a lot of reasons to be excited, especially if we hold some lillie fiends and especially if we have attempted to  plan for some "IT"S HAPPENING".

You not excited these days, gentlemand?

I think that it is a bad idea to tie up too much of your regular cash flow expenses in bitcoin.

In other words, if you know that you have a budget for $1,500 in bills per month, then the cash flow for all of that $1,500 should be properly accounted and dedicated, and probably it is a good practice to go out several months with such cash flow projections.

I personally project a lot further into the future, and I also attempt to have at least a $1,000 cushion - but also dollar based resources that I can draw from if I need extra dollars for some reason. 

Without getting into details, the fact of the matter for me is that almost none of my regular cash flow is tied up with bitcoin for some time into the future, yet every once in a while I will play with a few hundred dollars here or there in terms of either investing extra into bitcoin or taking extra out, but those extra tweakings are on the margins rather than my having to be forced to sell bitcoins as if I were over leveraged in bitcoins.

I am not much of a subscriber to TA, either, yet sometimes there can be some good contributions through TA.

On the other hand, I do agree with your assertion that bitcoin has a tendency to overshoot.

I don't necessarily think that you can use the same analyses with other cryptos as you do with bitcoin because a lot of other cryptos are either smaller market cap or more centralized than bitcoin..

And this thread is about bitcoin, anyhow, and who really gives a ratt's ass about the other cryptos, except maybe to the extent that there may be some direct relationship with bitcoin?

I get what you are saying that someone had to sell all those coins on January 5 and 6 on Stamp; however, traded is not the same as dumped, merely because the price went down during the process of the trading.  



Right...

A potential test of $800 and $780.

You gotta consider this trade volume matter in context, which means zooming out a bit to either weekly or 3 days.. you cannot really look only at daily volume or time intervals shorter than a few days in order to get a decent grasp of the situation... that's my thinking.

The mere fact that trade volume may decrease for a few days is not indicative that the price battle is over or that there is some kind of manipulation that is about to take place or major change in direction. 

A temporary drop in trade volume for a few days is merely an indication that some of the parties are regrouping.. which could take a few days and even trickle down for nearly a week before they resume the battle (in a more voluminous way).

That is b call koreck...      The killer pot is sounding a bit too sober this evening....   

What is so interesting about those two price snapshots?

A lot has gone on in regards to bitcoin's prices in the past few weeks, so those two price points seem a lot less interesting than other contextual matters. 

Difficult to know how long they can keep dumping coins... and maybe get others to follow... ?

Even though I sometimes get inklings about the short-term direction of price, I never feel very confident about my inklings until after I see it happen.

Therefore, I would not sell my bitcoins in the expectation to use that money to buy from someone who is 10% or so likely to flake (sure flakiness varies, but it is NOT a non-existent or even a low probable risk).

It's highly expected that a certain percentage of people are going to flake, and maybe even folks that you have already developed a decent relationship (or a pattern of good business), so having the expectation that a certain number are going to flake would be why you have to wait until you either have the bitcoin's or the fiat in your grubby little hands before taking the next step... on the other hand, sometimes you could take certain preparations or hedge a bit regarding the expectation of an occurrence - but that hedge should not reasonably be 100%.. maybe 20% or some other comfortable amount, which would likely vary from situation to situation.



I was still referring to maintaining a personal float in order that he (Ibian) does not have to do the transaction on his end before getting confirmation (and the actual transaction) from folks who have a certain likelihood of flaking. If you do not have enough of a floating amount, then you are running the flake risk - and likely gambling with your own capital - unless you were going to cash out of BTC anyhow, which is not likely when the price has just been correcting downwards for several days and appears to be on the rebound.

Sounds as if you do not have a large enough float.. whether that is BTC or cash.

I don't usually conduct the trade on the exchange until after I have already locked in the profitable trade on Local Bitcoins or directly... and that is that I have actually either received the bitcoins from the guy or I have received the fiat from the guy.

To do that, you have to have enough of a float that covers the full amount of bitcoins or fiat that you are trading and usually a bit more because of transfer times and other cushion issues that sometimes can get the money or the BTC in their proper locations and set up for the next trade.... that transferring money around can be a bit of a hassle and sometimes cause additional costs - that tend to be lessened, somewhat with having a decent float (and even then, it may be a bit cumbersome to manage with some unexpected costs, here and there)