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2281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 06, 2015, 03:40:19 PM
I think rpietila came along early in the life of Monero but after the core devs already joined the project.

Correct.

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One if the interesting things I see in Monero is that proportionally more bitcoin early adopters are involved than I see in other alt coins.

Is it because:

1. Bitcoin early adopters see Monero as a viable hedge to side chains and other potential fungibility/privacy fixes for bitcoin?

or

2. Bitcoin early adopters have been around long enough to recognize obvious pump/dump clone coins lacking much innovation and are far better at avoiding them than cryptocurrency newcomers trying to find the "next bitcoin"

I think we all can agree that 99+% of all altcoins will fail. How do early adopters identify coins that may be among the <1% to succeed as either a bitcoin hedge or a viable option to fill some niche that bitcoin either can/will not?

+1 All of the above is true.

My process on "how" is in reality based on hunch, but in theory goes about as follows:

The coin needs to be the first legitimate instance of its kind, had a fair start/emission, and a market niche
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Litecoin FAIL (not the first of its kind)
Peercoin FAIL (no market niche)
Bytecoin FAIL (not fair start)
Boolberry FAIL (not the first of its kind)
Ethereum FAIL (questionable start)
All shitcoins FAIL (2-3 counts)

Only BTC and XMR fulfill all conditions, so it makes sense to invest into them (and them alone). To be fully hedged, you can keep 99.8% in BTC and set 0.2% aside in XMR. Going over this ratio, is overinvesting in XMR.
2282  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread on: July 06, 2015, 03:24:48 PM
Can I ask you which type of future events you imagine are most like to grow the number of users and/or impact the distribution the most?

For example how do you think the launch of Crypto Kingdom will change this?

What about an Android wallet, official GUI or increased merchant adoption?

(I don't believe we even have 25000 owners right now. That much could be the total number of people exposed to XMR but many of them are at zero balance.)

Price will rise as money enters in. We have the moneroinvestment.com site, which will soon be polished for launch and will target midclass people who are interested in buying 10-100k XMR with fiat. Even a few of these guys can raise the price significantly.

CK has potential to absolutely explode XMR. At present, about 1% of XMR is already in CK account, so if we get "even" 100,000 new players, the price will have to go up by 10x to accommodate the equivalent new buying. Of course not every game makes it big, so this is more speculative than the 'new investors' case, which is clear as sky, only variable is timing.

I don't think the wallets or merchants matter that much, but I am pretty alone with this opinion, so perhaps they do Smiley
2283  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: July 06, 2015, 01:25:29 PM
Any statistics about how many players there are?

# registered and # of active (maybe in last week or so)

I see a lot of potential here.

The game has been paused since March, the number of active players is zero atm   Cheesy

The OP of this thread contains links to all of the Ancient era resources, including the master database.

Number of characters is about 110.
2284  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: July 04, 2015, 10:39:24 AM
I doubt very much monero will reach that high again, unless  Strange happaned, like some some big drugmarket will accept Monero

The rough formula for Monero price upside is as follows:

0.002 + Amount of new money(USD millions) * 0.002 = NewPrice (BTC/XMR)
2285  Economy / Economics / Re: Economic Totalitarianism on: July 04, 2015, 08:44:52 AM
Unless masochist, get the hell out of the USA. They can't logically enforce the same rules in Philippines, not at once at least. You get to see how it goes and there is some chance that Jesus will come back before the whole of the world is enslaved anyway. Bible says that 1/3 of the world population will die, and NWO plan is more like 90-95%. What follows is that NWO plan does get to start, but does NOT get to consummate before the Lord's return.

Whoever has an ear, let him hear.
2286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 04, 2015, 08:38:43 AM
Fucking bankster jews, your father is Satan, for you are liars, and he is the father of lies, and when you propose the depositors money to be cut and extracted to fill your pockets, you are truly speaking of your father. - Jesus (paraphrased)[/b]

First, gravity confounding levitation schemes on youtube, now, Lamb of God fueled anti-semitism? You know... at a certain point, you start working as an advocate against the positions you take, and the opinions you espouse.

Funny how I never read that in the Bible. Maybe it is the the lost Hitler Bible meant to replace the King James version

John 8:44 (KJV):
"Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it."

Paraphrasing added "banksters", because it is logically not true that ALL jews are such hateful murderers and liars. I know jews who don't follow evil (and whites and blacks who do). Murderers was changed to liars, which was included because of context. The whole burst was because there are rules in banking, and old ladies put their money in expecting the rules to be followed.

I have been advised to delete the original post because "it does not reflect well on me". It is too late anyway, it is been discussed and quoted, and 8:44 did not reflect Jesus well either, up to the point that it is believed to be a Hitler addition!  Cheesy

John 8:45-47:
45 And because I tell you the truth, ye believe me not.
46 Which of you convinceth me of sin? And if I say the truth, why do ye not believe me?
47 He that is of God heareth God's words: ye therefore hear them not, because ye are not of God.

And naturally it ended up with the jews trying to kill Jesus, just as they do these days to people who acknowledge them as who they are (again: only the bankster jews and goyim who lick their boots are targeted here, any of my jew-friends are not included, and I don't mean that jews are exempt of chastisement, I will tell to face if a jew I know is a hateful liar, and have told, as well as every man)

59 Then took they up stones to cast at him: but Jesus hid himself - -


There is no known mechanism how being an experimental natural scientist in the field of gravity could make these words become untrue, perhaps the critic should examine if his logic has other voids as glaring as this...  Roll Eyes

If possible, let's move this to another thread if someone still wants to continue.
2287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 03, 2015, 11:17:59 PM
The banking crisis in Greece and the proposed 30% bail-in on balances of 8,000 euros got me thinking…

According to rules, terms & conditions, laws, and justice;

if a bank is in trouble,

- first you call in the loans
- then you pay out the depositors
- the rest (if any) goes to the bondholders

Why are bondholders made whole from the funds of the depositors? The rules are there to be followed!

Fucking bankster jews, your father is Satan, for you are liars, and he is the father of lies, and when you propose the depositors money to be cut and extracted to fill your pockets, you are truly speaking of your father. - Jesus (paraphrased)


2288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: July 03, 2015, 09:10:30 AM
afaik they have no coins to offer bounties because there was no ICO reserved for such (instead I heard the devs were mining the shit out of the egregiously front loaded debasement curve and rumor was the guy who optimized the PoW hash netted himself $150,000 before releasing the optimizations), nor would they like a rancorous dev coming in and rearranging the house

The community is offering bounties, of course it is a different game as we don't have "free coins" but everyone must surrender actual value to get something done. On the other hand, this is called "voluntarism", which is the antithesis of "communism" practised by the premined coins.

I haven't heard that the devs could be "mining shit out of it". Mining Monero is somewhat tedious, because there is no ASIC, and GPU is not specifically good return. The only advantages you could get are using Amazon instances (mostly difficult, or else possible for all), botnets (not accessible by people except their owners, so a mandatory nuisance), or optimized miners (this era ended a year ago).

The emission schedule is a bit front-loaded, in part worse even than Bitcoin. At least Monero has perpetual emission (0.9%), which takes care of the network security and makes the game fairer. Less than half of the coins are mined, cf. 70% with BTC.

As for the ability to capture egrecious value by joining in now - yes, it is very much there. 1 XMR = 0.50 USD, and less exist than there exist BTC. So we are talking about BTC in 2010, and that's the year when many could have placed a sidebet worth a few $grand, yet did not do it, causing some gnashing of teeth for themselves.

Especially there is no need to care about mining, the coins can just be bought in surprisingly liquid markets.

Quote
I've heard (not verified) they inherited a sloppy C code base and I hate C and C++, even I am very proficient in those programming languages

According to Latapie (core team member), the codebase is 84% rewritten for security reasons (although no malicious things have been found in the code).

Quote
over a year ago, rpietila was telling everyone to buy more BTC at $600 and XMR was the greatest thing since sliced bread and I was turned off by the lack of cooler heads and objectivity. Since then, I come to respect smooth and realized that rpietila isn't the key voice of XMR (and I don't dislike rpietila, he is my friend and even a potential token amount seed investor of my controlling group... no I am would not pull rpietila away from XMR, he just likes small diversifications and he is my friend after all).

That guy is like a broken record (or at least turns v e r y slowly): he was instructing to buy silver 5 years in a row and now he's been bullish on BTC constantly since it was $3, and still is. Despite his incessant shilling of XMR, he does not even have such a high % of his wealth invested (way less than the castle he owns in Estonia anyway - at the current valuation, the castle is nearing XMR marketcap).

I think it is correct to invest small amounts in many promising, +EV projects, Bitcoin and Monero (and Newcoin) included.

Quote
XMR was a coin for those devs who already had money to invest, not for a dev like me who exhausted his former 18,000 oz stash and needs to strike it big one more time in life coming to old age without a retirement, blind in one eye, teenage dependents, and diagnosed with a chronic, progressive illness Multiple Sclerosis.

XMR is the "rich get richer" coin in the sense that the rich who grok it, can buy 100k XMR without sacrifice. The poor can only buy a few k.

Nevertheless, if it makes big, both will never need to work again.

Complaining about "devs" buying the coin at an early mover price is ludicrous as the price here and now is about -75% compared to last summer average ($0.50 vs. $2). In reality those who buy now, are the ones to be envied if it takes off. Are you in? Wink

Quote
nor do I want to own 1% of the economy (what a major responsibility and nearly impossible to allocate resources optimally at that scale).

The guys who buy 1% of the coin supply and still have it, are rather few and far between. I don't know anyone in the world, except Satoshi, who still has his maximum amount of BTC.

If XMR would even to become as big as BTC, it would need to go up 2^10 times. Every time it doubles, statistics say, people tend to sell 17% of their holdings, distributing the coins to the newcomers whose interest is the cause for the price to double.

(1-17%)^10 = 0.15

After 1000-times upsurge, on average only 15% of coins still belong to the original guys. If we are talking about hindering the global economy with your wealth, we need a 1,000,000 times appreciation, at which point your holding is not 1% anymore but 0.01%, still a massive stash but not a disruptive one.
2289  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: July 02, 2015, 03:29:39 PM
In addition to getmonero.org, moneroinvestment.com (under construction) should be translated. It is quite little content, so should be easy.
2290  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: July 02, 2015, 03:28:31 PM
But it is not going to be an easy surge. The current price is well established and we have resistance at 235, 250, 290. Based on this, it does not make sense to buy for short-term speculation. The time for that is only after these hurdles are cleared. Therefore, I envision that the range-bound trading continues until one of the sides is thoroughly exhausted.

It is easier to exhaust the sellers though, all we need is some new money Wink
2291  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: July 02, 2015, 02:48:33 PM
On the other hand, the fiat exchanges are coming online soon, and this will cause upside pressure.

Which fiat exchange are you talking about?

I personally know of 3 plans, one of which is this month, second one is during summer, third is later this year. All by reputable people that I know (separate people in each Wink ) In addition I am starting a XMR fund myself but I am legendary slow in action so don't buy just yet based on this alone  Grin

The reason why this is upwards pressure is that non-BTC owners (99% of the investor population) have not been able to invest before, but now they can.
2292  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: July 02, 2015, 12:51:57 PM
I find it hard to believe that the dumps during the last month are part of manipulation. There was some case for manipulation during the quick rise (especially from 0.003 to 0.0043) and also with the big dump that broke the support line in 0.0028.

But now? Nah.

It is quite evident that we are sitting on a floor, with dumps quite quickly bought up. If normal market action leads somebody to sell, the pressure continues. If the floor (roughly around 0.0018) breaks, I am not holding my breath to see 0.001 again, but 0.0015 is a possibility.

The leveraged longs are causing some caution, not that I would believe they are prone to be liquidated but some of them might be eager to sell, which is muting the upside.

Also the bid volume is not very robust.

On the other hand, the fiat exchanges are coming online soon, and this will cause upside pressure.
2293  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: July 01, 2015, 08:57:08 AM
Don't sell your coins to early when a bubble happens, just look at the % gains LTC made in 2013.

It is the "sticky price" phenomenon that has previously manifested itself in "trading ranges". When the price or exchange rate is relatively steady for a longer time (let's say 2 months), the market participants start to "enforce" it in their trades, refusing to buy higher or sell lower.

With BTC, we had the original electricity cost era of <$0.01, then the $1 before the bubble in 2011, the next one was at $5 and then about $10 later in 2012, then some at $120 in 2013, and now $220ish. Each time the price held its ground a "long" time after fundamentals already warranted a rise, and when the rise finally began, it often overshoot.

The trading range I originally prescribed to Monero in May 2014, was BTC0.002-0.004. The prediction was not bad at all, if you look at the reality during the year. Now we are at the lower end of the range, with a project that is still alive with all the major contributors.

Trading ranges with sticky prices tend to make people incredibly myopic - they start to seriously regard 0.0017 as cheap and 0.0023 as expensive. The logarithmic nature of price increase is all but forgotten, until it happens, taking all by surprise.

Both 0.0017, 0.0023, 0.01 and even 0.1 are cheap if Monero makes it. (If it does not, there is no difference how many monero you have in your bag which is worth $0 anyway.)

Yes it is summer and the mood in the markets is according. I don't forecast a quick rise in price before new money comes. There are some signs of price stickiness around Wink






2294  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: June 30, 2015, 10:34:21 AM
Just wanted to post and tell that I don't see anything happening in Monerosphere. Once we get one serious buyer (and I still have many in the pipeline, and some small ones are accumulating as we speak), then there will be price action.

As long as the whole world does not provide one person interested in a private cryptocurrency, well, then we'll have to languish at the current levels  Cheesy
2295  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: June 27, 2015, 06:02:27 PM
(My style has been to make public rather than private communication but I am not in the loop concerning this one.)

I hope I'm not being annoying

But you should talk to him about that since making new public updates will bring exposure and new investors

No, you should talk to him. Never institute centralization in communication unless necessary  Cheesy

ADD: I mean, there is enough job for me to be lead designer, the GM and the King. It is Riccardo's job to be the one responsible for communicating how the Version 4 is proceeding. There is no need for me to carry messages between you two, as he is reading his PM daily.
2296  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: June 25, 2015, 12:14:39 PM
any updates?

it's been a week, and we're eager to know what's going on Cheesy

All technical updates have been Riccardo's responsibility since about April. (Previously they were sXpher's.) Contacting them directly via PM, IRC or other channel might be the way to go, since they obviously don't prefer to make public updates.

(My style has been to make public rather than private communication but I am not in the loop concerning this one.)
2297  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Official Lamborghini for bitcoin thread! on: June 22, 2015, 05:14:04 PM
Castles don't make money, they consume it. Anybody who thinks otherwise has probably never owned one  Grin

Yet it is a nice place to spend the Midsummer Night - in Estonia, it's tomorrow.
2298  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Official Lamborghini for bitcoin thread! on: June 22, 2015, 01:04:51 PM
I have a castle for sale for 4500 BTC, or serious offer Smiley

Where at and will you owner finance? Smiley

We are talking about the famous Bitcoin Castle in Malla, Estonia. And no, you don't buy castles on credit  Wink
2299  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Official Lamborghini for bitcoin thread! on: June 18, 2015, 02:01:41 PM
I have a castle for sale for 4500 BTC, or serious offer Smiley
2300  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: June 15, 2015, 02:19:56 PM
CryptoKingdom (and CKG) marketcap has reached an all-time high, which might be a positive for XMR future as well.

Since the King's Coinshop offered to buy @0.500000 XMR, none has been bought. Rather we have sold more.

At midprice, CKG marketcap is now 535,000 XMR. CK marketcap could be approximately 800,000 XMR.
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