You do not necessarily understand bitcoin if you are attempting to put too much correlation to "legacy markets."  Sure there are liquidity correlations and there are people who play bitcoin as if it were the same as any other market.. without necessarily understanding and/or appreciating the potential for exponentials. .and even the sly round about ways that step ups in value have historically taken place in bitcoin and are likely to continue into the future (even though surely not guaranteed).


Yes.. it might and it might not.  There also could be a bitcoin step up that comes prior to the crash, and we might end up crashing back down to the current price (or even a higher price) rather than a lower price from here.

Surely, it does not hurt to hold some dry powder on the side for various dips, but I would not be getting overly excited about the possibility of sub-$20k bitcoin when bitcoin prices might not ever drop below $25k ever again.. including they might not ever drop below $26k again.

I know that you like to get so excited about buying on dip scenarios, but I have my doubts about that approach being a very good one when it comes to bitcoin (except ONLY as a kind of supplement approach rather than a main approach), even though it does sometimes end up working out positively for you.


It's not the first time that you have raised that same point.. .. I hope it is working out for you and you are not holding too much fiat on the side rather than buying the dips that have already been happening.

Pretty decent BTC prices to be already getting BTC below the 200-week moving average, and you are spending so much time thinking about ways to stack 0.00062817 more BTC during a fantasy dip that might not end up playing out.


Of course, each of us needs to choose the level of aggressiveness that we want to employ without causing too much stress upon ourselves, and maybe I should provide the example $10 and $100 per week again... .

Let's say that it is pretty clear that based on your cashflow you are able to invest between $50 and $200 into bitcoin every week, and so you consider that a reasonably aggressive strategy would be $100 per week.. It makes you a little uncomfortable, but you are still feeling like you are being sufficiently aggressive. 

On the other hand, if you instead choose to invest between $30 and $50 every week because you want to make sure that you don't have any stress and that you are able to have as much fun as you can with your weekly money, then maybe in that case you are not being aggressively enough, and after 4-6 years investing into bitcoin, you are still going to be advantaged by your $30-$50 per week investment into bitcoin, but if you had been employing the more aggressive strategy of $100 per week you would end up with 2-3x  more bitcoin.  So, of course the level of your aggressiveness and the level of your discomfort with your aggressiveness is a matter of degree and a matter of your choice based on your particular circumstances.

It is not forced because you choose it, and if you are actually causing yourself to be more aggressive than your comfort level, then that can also end up putting yourself into a situation that may end up feeling forced, even though you were the one who choose the aggressiveness level that you would employ.


In the end, I think that we are largely saying the same thing.


Fuck shitcoins.  We are not talking about shitcoins here.  If you were not talking about shitcoins, then your statement surely does not make that clear.  "wise to diversify" sounds like code for "buying shitcoins could be helpful" when that truly is neither true and also shitcoin pumping (or pumping the idea that shitcoins are good) is not a part of this topic.


You are wrong.  A strict DCA approach does not get distracted by price.. .however, if you are suggesting a less strict DCA approach or some kind of hybrid, then there is nothing wrong with that... but don't be implying that you are still following DCA when you are not.. In those kinds of cases you are purposefully deviating from DCA and suggesting that would be better, when it may or may not end up being better than just following a straight DCA approach.  We cannot presume that everyone has time to be fucking around trying to figure out the price, and that is part of the reason that a strict DCA is suggested as a starting point... and sure of course, anyone is free to deviate from DCA by employing various price movement strategies, but that is no longer strict DCA and not even necessarily a good idea (even though you seem to be suggesting that moving from strict DCA is "obviously" better.. which truly is not true)..

Some times people attempt to get to be too smart for their own good, and I have no problem with making suggestions but it is not necessarily going to be a good thing for everyone to be fucking around with various strategies that may or may not end up working, even if you have a lot of confidence in such deviation. 


No we cannot see what is happening now, except maybe BTC prices could go up and maybe they could go down. I can see that, which is almost always true.  Do you think that you have insight regarding which way the BTC price is going to go from here?


We are also not doing trading in this thread.  Even though there is buying on dip ideas, this thread surely is not about trading.


A good investor is a trader?  I doubt it.


I doubt it.  How many traders beat a strict DCA approach?  Probably less than 10%.  I doubt that it is as obvious and/or "wise" as you are making it out to be.


Just because you have it all figured out does not mean that it is a good practice for normies to be fucking around trying to trade and/or even tough enough to figure out if there is going to be a dip or not and how low it will go and/or how long such dip will last.


Another thing.. you have ONLY been registered on the forum since June 2022.. so it could be possible that you might have been able to beat a strict DCA approach and various other ways of accumulating BTC that might also involve Lump sump investing and buying on dips.. but how about the traders who have been around for 10 years?  DCA and strict methods of ongoing BTC accumulation have done pretty well in the past 10 years or so.. How many traders are able to beat a somewhat strict and persistent DCA approach over the past 10 years?

Let's look at $100 invested over the past 10 years would have resulted in right around $52.6k invested and nearly 54 BTC (an average of a little less than $1k per BTC).  Do you know actual widely applicable ways that a trading strategy would  have had beat those kinds of returns?  Yeah, sure you might have anecdotal stories, but is there a clear practice that would have had beaten a strict DCA approach?

You might be being too harsh LFC.  I surely agree with the idea of shaming nocoiners and low coiners who had not been sufficiently aggressive, but even $100 per week would have had need to be investing since the beginning of 2020 in order to get to the accumulation of 1BTC.

And there surely are some people who are not even able to invest $100 per week, but yeah sure, if they are able to invest $100 per week and they are not, then they should be shamed.. but then another question is when did they find out about bitcoin.. early 2020 or some later point.

By the way, the $10 per week person would have had to be investing since June 2016 in order to get to 1 BTC.

Don't get me wrong, I am not trying to give anyone any kind of free pass, but the fact of the matter, is that it is getting more and more difficult to accumulate a whole BTC.. and that seems to be part of the reason that we are likely going to NOT be too elitist in terms of maybe currently having a kind of expectation that people currently (or recently) finding out about bitcoin might need to shoot for some lower level goal.. such as 21 million sats or maybe 10 million sats or maybe even 1 million sats. .but surely if they have known about bitcon for a few years, they should already be past those levels..

again depending on their monthly budget and/or how aggressive that they are able to be without screwing things up too much in terms of losing their coins.. which would be even a worse outcome for those who might end up overdoing it in such a way that they are not able to hang onto whatever coins that they are able to accumulate.. because I think that part of this bitcoin accumulation game should be creating such a strategy that you are constantly and continuing to build your BTC stash until you get to such a point that is close to your own fuck you status... and that could take 20-30 years in regular systems, even though bitcoin likely has been able to provide ways that even normies could have gotten to fuck you status in less than 10 years. .which surely is not a usual kind of investment, and bitcoin seems to continue to be a strong investment in terms of short-cutting the getting to fuck you status as long as you don't screw things up by over doing it too much.


Even my entry-level fuck you status chart shows that it could take until late 2043 for one 1 BTC to be enough for entry-level fuck you status... and sure, it is probably way easier to be trying to front-load your BTC investment to try to get the 1BTC earlier rather than later, but still I doubt that it is fair to presume that everyone is able to invest aggressively in order to get to 1 BTC quicker than their cashflow and expenses allow them to get there.. and surely anyone with an investment portfolio of $100k or more could end up choosing to allocate 25% to BTC investments, but it is not clear that s/he would still be able to get to 1 whole bitcoin right away or if it would necessarily be good advice to immediately reallocate his/her investment portfolio in order to get 1 BTC in there at this time.. so there are some individualistic particulars that are best to be attempting to accounting.


This is a great example (even though it is sad and a bit depressing, too).

Historically, I have tended to lecture forum members about any kind of overly dependence on merely earning bitcoin rather than buying bitcoin.. because sometimes there can be ways to earn money (including fiat) that is going to allow you to buy way more bitcoin than you are able to from earning, whether we are referring to a signature campaign or other ways that you might be able to get paid for providing goods, services and/or labor...

So surely, I have sympathies for when forum members (or any other normies) have a lot of difficulties figuring out how to get BTC based on their own physical location that may well either be hostile to bitcoin or not really having ways in which you are able to find ways to purchase bitcoin... and there could be some ways that you might be able to buy some bitcoin from forum members. that is if you are able to generate some cash in other ways.. but of course, hopefully you are ongoingly trying to figure out ways that you are able to get BTC besides merely relying on signature campaigns... but surely persistence with signature campaigns could also get you over 1 BTC in less than 10 years.. maybe even less than 5 years.. .. but maybe those days are gone?


Saylor and/or MSTR is likely not going to cash out, but if he/MSTR wanted to cash out more than $26 billion at around those $200k-ish prices (or close to $32 billion in my corrected stats), he/MSTR could do that.

Sounds like you don't know nuttin, @Sophokles.


You sound really lost @Sophokles.

Do you really believe that if bitcoin were to go to $200k and Saylor's/MSTR's coins go up from just under $5 billion to nearly $32 billion, then he is going to need to sell in order to reap benefits from having such cornz? 

Try MOAR harder.  You can do better than that.  Can't you?


Those are fair points, but it seems to me that we were talking about the value of the BTC going up from a little less than $5 billion to a little more than $32 billion... so you seem to be making a different point, at least from the one that I was making.. maybe Phil could end up agreeing with you that was what he was talking about... perhaps?  I surely wasn't talking about that.

I think that it is a good idea to make blanket judgements in regards to that mother of all scams, ethereum that facilitates other coins to also scam through the various easy of the creation of more and more scams on top of the already existing scam.

And, sure I don't claim to know everything that is going on with that piece of crap, but it surely is also a kind of affinity scam too. .in terms of the various rhetoric to make it appear as if POS is actually contributing to the world and saving the planet as compared to bitcoin's use of energy for POW. .which is purely nonsense and promoted in a lot of circles.. so good to call a spade a spade, and in this case good to make sure to continue to reiterate the various ways that people should not be fucking around with ethereum, even if it might pump at various points..

...and that ethereum has various other scams built upon it, including BIG companies included in dumb efforts to build upon misleading kinds of systems that are being suggested to be adding value that is competitive and/or better than bitcoin, which truly those are lies even if rich people, institutions and/or governments might be getting involved in supporting such phony baloney.. but lots of institutions and governments are used to promoting phony balloney when they are propping up various fiat systems that ongoingly involve lying to people in regards to value creation that does not really exist in the ways that it is claimed to exist...


You and everyone else would still be better off to presume any other project that includes a coin or a token (that is not bitcoin) as being a shitoin, a scam and/or something that is really not adding any value unless they can prove themselves otherwise rather than trying to give any of them any kind of benefit of the doubt in regards to their not being a shitcoin, as scam or something that is not adding any value....

Another waste of time, engergies and money  to be engaging in efforts to figure out which shit coin happens to be less shitty than the other shitcoin... a pretty dumb investment thesis to be attempting to figure out which coin is the less of the shitty coins, especially when we have bitcoin staring us in the face and a better way to go would be with a positive investment thesis in terms of investing in bitcoin and figuring out bitcoin and also putting at least 90% of your crypto value investment into bitcoin before even screwing around with other dumb shit things that have pump and dump coins that are likely not really worth wasting your time, money and/or energy with.

You seem to be making a decent point, @Dickiy.  There's nothing wrong with being aggressive an/or being overly aggressive as long as you have your expenses covered .. which means that you know that you have your cashflow in order for 3-6 months and an adequate emergency fund that could be for extra kinds of expenses that could come up and are not expected that might include drying up of cashflow and/or increases in expenses for a period fo time that could last 3-6 months or longer..

No bitcoin investor should be putting himself/herself into a position in which s/he could end up losing some of his/her coins at a time that is not chosen.. .so it can take a while to build a bitcoin stash and if you over-do it then you end up losing some of your coins and perhaps being in a worse position because you were trying to be more aggressive than you needed to be and if you had just stacked a wee bit less, then you would not have had ended up losing any coins.

I know that some of the members here like to use the word consistently, and I am not sure if I really like that word, because you can be persistent and continuously making sure that you are investing on an ongoing and regular basis (such as weekly) but there might be some weeks that you are able to invest $100 into BTC and other weeks that you are only able to invest $5, and the part that you were consistent about has to do with your ongoingly monitoring the amount that you are investing so that you are able to be as aggressive that you are able to be in accordance with your budget and your specific situation, but you may or may not end up choosing and/or following any kind of mandate regarding amount that you might end up doing...

And, sure maybe we are saying the same thing but just using different words and differing emphases.

Since when did Phil deserve fairness?  hahahahaha

It seems to this here cat that you are playing favorites, and it also seems to yours truly that you are "accepting" that Philly Willy can be off by a mere $5.64 billion, and still be in the ballpark of koreck.

Yep.  Those are the kinds of calculations that shitcoiners do, instead of staying focused.. .but yeah, to stick to the 80/20 rule, if they had a $10k budget and choose to invest $500 into each of their chosen shitcoins, then they would ONLY be able to invest into 4 shitcoins without going over their 20% cap. .. so then they will conclude that they have to pick more coins, and then they end up having difficulties staying focused on bitcoin..

Of course another thing is that there should be some kind of conscientious due diligence in trying to figure out which shitcoins to research into and then to invest and then to watch them and to figure out various strategies in regards to each coin, including what kinds of events might trigger needs to take action, such as selling some or all of their coin.  Sure, we can suppose that it could be fun to learn about some of the various shitcoin projects and to watch them... and maybe they will figure out some kind of a system that works for them.  Perhaps?


That is part of the reason that they are not going to be able to even stick with a 80/20 rule unless they flip it, and even then it can get so tempting to reduce bitcoin further because once they go down the diluting of their investment portfolio, there are always more and more new shitcoins demanding some of that allocation.

My maths must be different from your maths.

Here's my proofs of work:

I get $31.64 Billion.  (but hey what is a $5.64 billion difference between friends?)

Here is how it can be done:

$200k / $29,582 = 6.76

6.76 x $4.68 billion = $31.64 billion


You believe that MSTR needs to sell in order that either they or their shareholders would be able to profit? 

That's interesting.

For sure, these issues are getting worse and even more murky in regards to the government's cooptation of private systems and even people with private systems are getting the rug pulled from under them without even knowing that their data is getting used by governments without a warrant and it may well even be questionable if they have probable cause in some cases that they get access to private security cameras that are using third parties for their data storage.

It seems that in some cases, the courts (or maybe even the people need to rebel) need to rule that state action is involved when governments are purchasing and/or otherwise getting data from third parties without warrants or with shoddy procedures that allow them too much access to too much private information (cameras and other kinds of data being held by supposed third parties).

Even though I think that 20% is too much to allow to be invested into shitcoins (10% at most into shitcoins.. but hey we can agree to disagree), it is at least some kind of a recognition that an overwhelming majority should be in bitcoin.. ...

Over the years, I have surely seen so many shitcoiners who have no bitcoin or they might have only a 10% to 20% allocation to bitcoin.. which seems completely lacking in knowledge in regards to what bitcoin is....

By the way, don't get me wrong, it is helpful for anyone to think through what are there various allocations and to consider why they allocating the amounts that they are.. including considering their timeline for various investments, so there surely could be some reasonable justifications that would allow people to conclude to take more risks .. which does end up in decisions to ONLY have smaller amounts of the crypto-investments allocated to bitcoin.. but then of course, we have our broader investment portfolio too..

At the end of 2014, after I had already been in bitcoin for a year, I had considered that the amount that I invested in bitcoin would be 10% of my overall investment portfolio, but after March 2020, I started to recommend 1-25% to be allocated to bitcoin, and of course, my own investment in bitcoin ended up being around 13.5% in late 2015, but that grew to nearly 90% as compared with my other investments in 2017 and then shrunk back to 45%-ish and then is currently around 70%.. so I am not even necessarily suggesting the necessity for any reallocations of a winning asset.. so when we consider allocations within our overall investment portfolio versus allocations within crypto (bitcoin versus shitcoins), those are two separate questions, but they still may well have real world ramifications, including that there may be a large number of folks who do not hardly have any investments besides "crypto" which is potentially problematic, but also screwing up their own concepts of how diversification should be considered and put into practice in regards to their own financial/psychological circumstances and/or their investment(gambling) goals.

You and I are using the term shitcoin and altcoin differently.  I consider anything that is not bitcoin (that has its own token) to be a shitcoin.. so from my consideration altcoin and shitcoin is the same thing... if you are trying to differentiate between how shitty or not are various shitcoins based on their price performance or some other broadly applicable principles, you are likely just getting yourself into trouble.. ..

So if you actually end up studying and largely understanding the investment thesis for bitcoin, then you can consider the extent to which any shitcoin might be providing some potential value, rathet than being a kind of temporary scam... and so sure, it is possible and even likely that there are some shitcoins that are not directly scamming and are providing some utility, so in that regard, if you waste your time studying that non-sense and you happen to find one or more that is worth putting some value into, then you will still need to temper your investment..

In the end, there is a presumption that shitcoins/altcoins are not providing much or any value or worthy of investment, and so you have to overcome that presumption in order to justify investing into them in any kind of meaningful way beyond short term pumpamentals (which is also a questionable reason to get into a project, but not an unreasonable reason if you have good information and/or confidence regarding short term pumpamentals.. which again is a different reason for getting into such coins as compared with bitcoin's long term investment thesis,  even though sometimes bitcoin will also continue to go through short-term pumping periods).


I don't really disagree with you, but you are not really saying much of anything here.. except that bitcoin is the best because everyone believes it is best, and so sure there might be some truth to that, but bitcoin is best based on the way that it is designed and its various network effects.  Consider Trace Mayer's seven network effects. 

Also bitcoin is best in part because it would take something in the order of a 10x improvement over BTC for some kind of a coin to take over bitcoin, and for example, some people cannot figure out bitcoin's relationship to gold, and so there are many people who are confused about bitcoin versus gold, but  part of the reason that bitcoin is gaining on gold's market share is because bitcoin is way more than 10x better than gold, and perhaps even in the neighborhood of 1,000x better than gold. So, sure it could take another 50 to 200 years for the market to end up recognizing bitcoin for it's 1,000x better value than gold, and so there are a lot of folks who cannot recognize bitcoin's superiority to gold (including the 1,000x angle), and so some people will end up being more correct than others in terms of their assessment of value but even if we assess value, the timeline could still take a very long time to play out.


I doubt that you are correct on this point.  Shitcoins could outperform bitcoin for a long time.. so I would not count on the fact that shitcoins might not pump and even end up outperforming bitcoin for considerable amounts of time.  I don't know whether such outperformance is going to happen, but I am not going to invest into those shitty scams merely because there are a bunch of dumb twats pumping their nonsense smoke and screen crap, whether we are referring to ethereum or some other shitcoins.  We could even get nation states pumping that nonsense.. so even if they might cause crap to get pumped (just like fiat is pumped and able to retain value) that still does not take away from bitcoin's investment thesis.. so you have to choose whether or not to invest at all in the crap (that could pump higher than bitcoin).

You likely know the expression: "market's can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent," so it is up to you if you get lured into shitty project because of their pumpening potentials (including various shitcoins), and sure of course, even with bitcoin, you should be figuring out your own position size based on the facts that a lot of weird things can end up happening that cause bitcoin prices to be suppressed lower than expected and for longer than expected.. .You should not be considering that it is inevitable that bitcoin will pump or that shitcoins will not pump.. that seems like a gambling kind of approach if you are not sufficiently/adequately preparing for either direction (and a variety of outcomes, even crazy ones).


It can take a real long time to make up for some of the losses that happen, so when any of us is looking at our investment portfolio, we have to be careful about not losing our principle.  So we should be figuring out ways to establish our various position sizes in such ways that we are not putting our principle at risk.

Yes, I know easier said than done.. but first of all figuring out how much we are going to invest into BTC or other investments, such as 10% of our salary (or some other reasonable amount that allows us to continue to live a reasonable lifestyle). .and then once we have figured out our budget then we have to figure out what to invest into..  If you are a brand new investor, then there does not seem to be anything wrong with putting all or most of your 10% amount into bitcoin until you reach a certain level of 20% to 50% of your annual salary or some other number that you believe to be reasonable and then at some later point, then figure out how to diversify.. and most likely not shitcoins but instead property, equities, commodities, bonds, and cash/cash equivalents... and sure if you cannot resist getting involved in various shitcoins, then restrict your investment into them to no more than 10% of the size of your bitcoin investment.. unless you figure out some angle that is actually good information about some project that you are going to invest into and to go beyond 10% of ther size of your bitcoin investment.

Anyhow, the point is that many times, it does take a long time to build back principle when you end up losing a lot of it (or even all of it) because you got to greedy and/or you failed to limit your position size based on how much risk you were entering into.

You are wanting to go back to the ever-repeated BIG blocker arguments that became popular in 2016 and maybe still lingering - a kind of expectation that everyone should be able to have free or close to free transactions on the main chain?

Certainly, I am not suggesting that everyone can wait, but surely there are ways to attempt to be somewhat strategic with figuring out how much of a rush you are in with regards to your transactions and what kinds of transactions are worth paying the higher fees..

So it seems that the last couple of weeks we had a bout of congestion in which:

1)  10 to 20 sats per vbyte (30¢ to 60¢ as long as it was coming from ONLY 1 address) had chances to confirm within several days to maybe even a week, but could take longer (maybe even a month on the lower end of the range),

2) 20-30 sats per vbyte (60¢ to 90¢) had chances to confirm within an hour but could take a 1-3 days, especially on the lower end of the price range,   

3) 30-60 sats per vbyte (90¢ to $1.80) had pretty decent chances to confirm within ten minutes to an hour, and of course, the higher up on the scale the more likely that your transaction would end up getting into the next block.

Even if we presume someone does not have time to wait, those are not outrageous fees for anyone sending $100 or more, yet of course with smaller value transactions they might become less economical for those who want to get their transactions to go through quickly. 

Sure, we can reasonably presume that several of these kinds of fees are going to become more costly with increased traffic times, yet we can still calculate how much BTC are we moving in order to decide how much it might cost to pay, and it does not seem unreasonable for the fees to go up even 10x during busy periods, and still there would be choices regarding how much value are we sending?  If the fees are up 10x from the ones of the last week, then surely we might choose to increase our lower limits in transactions, so instead of ONLY sending transactions of $100 or more, we might choose to ONLY transact on chain when the transactions are valued at least $1k or more.  We can decide for ourselves based on fees (and what we see as mempool congestion levels - or wallets might be showing/suggesting).

Lightning network does seem to be another plausible release valve for the lower transaction values during those kinds of higher fee times.. even though we have been finding lighting network to not always be very reliable.. so we seem to be in fairly early days for both seeing how the lightning options perform and also verifying that people have lightning options available to them - of course, the more self-autonomous concerned bitcoiners are going to want to make sure that self-custody options are available, but if we are merely talking about saving fees on lower transactions, there might not be any kinds of existential threats to sovereignty if some custodial solutions are being utilized during high congestion periods and if many people still might keep their main bitcoin stashes in various on chain private locations.. so maybe many less rich people might have bitcoin savings that are "ONLY" $1K to $50k in value, so they still would have a lot of sovereignty, even if onchain fees have periods of being high.. and maybe instead of sending their value around on chain every time it reaches $100, they might wait until it is more than $1k before sending it from off-chain (such as lightning network) to onchain locations.. in order to attempt to better strategize the fee situation. 

Oh?  That helps.


You cannot help yourself.

You might need to seek counsel.

#justsaying

It's a misuse of the term diversification, and that is how people get sucked into shitcoins because it is meant to sound like it is normal to diversify into shitcoins - merely because you don't know what is bitcoin and you cannot tell the difference between what is bitcoin and what are shitcoins.

The real idea of smart diversification goes into different kinds of asset classes rather than in the same asset class, and yeah sure if you are dumb and don't know what is bitcoin, then you will be led into false regarding various possibilities of various shitcoins.

Now in terms of gambling rather than investing, then diversifying might make some sense.  Diversify some of your gambling items, but OP has already stated several times that he is not gambling, he is investing and he is doing it for the long term, not the short term, so it does not really make any sense to diversify for the mere sake of it.. especially since you don't even seem to understand the concept of diversification very well.

Another aspect of diversification that can screw up your investment is when you end up diluting, and it could be the case that new investors should not be diluting their investment, and there may well not be any need to add additional assets until maybe your investment portfolio (potentially ONLY starting with bitcoin and cash) gets to be a certain size.. perhaps 20% to 50% of your annual salary, or maybe even a larger number.. which may well depend also on how much discretionary income a person might have.  There are a lot of people who ONLY are able to invest 10% of their annual salary at most, and so at that pace it would take them 10 years to get to a point in which they have invested a whole year's salary, so then it may well depend on how well their investments performed to be able to see if they have more than a whole years worth of income (or living expenses) in their investment portfolio. ..

The mere fact that some people are ONLY able to invest small amounts seems to justify a whole hell of a lot less diversification rather than fucking around with diluting the small amounts that they are actually able to invest (or save).  


Again pushing shitcoins.. Merely because they are at the top does not necessarily convert them into either an investment or within a category that is even close to as good as bitcoin.. so then a question becomes why waste your time, energy and/or money on such distractions?


Fuck shitcoins.. there is no need to practice with them without having a better investment thesis than diversification for the sake of it or they happen to be in the top coins or dumb shit like that.  When investing into shitcoins as contrasted with bitcoin there are more reasons to have to look into the overwhelming crap that is out there trying to act like they are either equal to or better than bitcoin.. so the best is to start out with bitcoin first and no need to study very many details and just get the fuck started with bitcoin and learn along the way... if you are going to fuck around with other coins and or projects, you are going to need to do your homework first because an overwhelming majority are pure nonsense and in need of babysitting and/or getting in and out rather than just buying and forgetting about it for 10 years (which way closer to the case with bitcoin.. being able to invest and forget about it).

You really know my motive for investing that well, or you believe that you have sufficiently summarized my bitcoin investment thesis and how it might have changed over the years?

I believe that I have had somewhat of a consistent bitcoin investment thesis since I got into bitcoin in 2013, yet at the same time, I have learned more and more about bitcoin since getting into bitcoin, so it is difficult to say what I did versus what I would have did or what I would do because in part I have already been in bitcoin, and fairly active in several ways over the last about 9 and 3/4 years... but I am still not sure what this has to do with me.

You challenged that anyone says ETH is a scam is ignorant.. and it seems that you were being quite hyperbolic in that statement.. whether you are correct or not might be another question.

Ever since Ethereum has come into existence it has been a kind of affinity scam in regards to bitcoin, and surely people have made money on it. but the making of money on a scam still does not seem to remove ethereum's scammy history and even including it seemingly ongoing scammy continued existence.

It would be pretty scary to be putting much if any of your value into that crap without merely feeling as if you are gambling rather than investing, even though many people (who I would suggest to be scammers, dumbasses or innocent people caught up in the nonsense.. and perhaps even pre-coiners.. a kind of temporary dumb status) actually do put value into that smoke and mirrors nonsense.


I doubt that I have ever said that, or at least you seem to be devolving into more exaggerations in terms of trying to summarize my position by attacking me rather than really attempting to think through what I might have been saying or what my position might be.

Generally speaking I would prefer to suggest that there is a presumption that anything but bitcoin is a scam.. especially if they have their own token.. or if they are building on some kind of scam that has its own token. Now if they don't have their own token and they are building on bitcoin. then that may well be another story.  I don't claim to be an expert, but I do claim to presume anything trying to act like it is similar to bitcoin or better than bitcoin and has some kind of a token to mostly be a scam, even though surely there could be some utility in terms of some of the shitcoins and even some abilities to transfer value through some of them in kinds of alternative possibilities outside of bitcoin.. so as I mentioned previously, there could be some reasons to hold some of the various shitcoins, ... maybe even up to 10% of various investment assets could be in shitcoins as compared with bitcoin, and sure there could be reasons to go beyond `10%, but I am not going to automatically presume any of that without some kind of a justification, and the burden would be on you to argue some shitcoins to have any kind of value as compared with bitcoin and/or worthy of investing into whether you are talking about the mother asshole of shitcoins (aka ethereum) or some other shticoin or shitcoin variant.


You are trying to paint me as some kind of an extremist... that sounds like bullshit.  I am completely reasonable.. ..and there are likely forum members who are both more informed than me and also more skeptical of shitcoins and the various ways that people get separated from their money (or distracted in their thoughts. or their abilities to better understand bitcoin).


You are within some kind of a reasonable group?  Are you chasing dollar profits?  How do you define profits?    The more you speak, the more lost you sound.


Again, that does not really sound exactly like what I said.. and also I have not really ever claimed that there might be ways to make profits from shitcoins.  Of course there are ways to make profits, and even moreso if you happen to be some kind of an insider who is scamming others or if you have connections with an insider who is scamming others then maybe you will get the information first to be able to pump and dumb your crap.

I would not really characterize those kinds of behaviors  as investing rather than gambling and/or pumping and dumping crap... and of course, you have the right to do whatever you would like.. but it does not sound very accurate to be describing yourself in terms of taking the high road.

The high road likely relates to mostly (if not exclusively) being in bitcoin.. rather than getting distracted too much into shitcoins, and if you happen to get into shitcoins, then hopefully you are not getting more than 10 % into shitcoins without having some kind of a compelling reason to do so that goes beyond mere gambling and/or engaging in various scams, whether you are the scammer yourself or merely following and supporting scammers while proclaiming that they are not scamming..


No one, including yours truly, is saying that you are not able to make profits from being involved in shitty projects.. but it seems quite distracting if you believe that there is some kind of systematic and/or honest way to get involved in the overwhelming majority of that crap, and if you are holding Ethereum up as your supposed virtue coin, then you really sound lost... .. and again, you are sure free to spend your time, your energies and your money however, you like, but coming into various threads and trying to suggest that you are virtuous or that you are doing good work or that anyone claiming ethereum to be a scam is ignorant likely mostly reflects upon your own ignorance and vacuousness rather than some kind of an enlightened position that you seem to be wanting to proclaim that you hold in your support and/or your involvement in shitcoins, including but not limited to ethereum.


If Satoshi did not design Bitcoin to be an investment, then why is it an investment?  You can invest time, energy and/or monetary value into bitcoin, and it seems that bitcoin has various monetary incentives built into it and that is part of the reason that it works so well, even when being attacked.  There are presumptions that are built into bitcoin that it will be attacked, and it is built to be resilient against various kinds of attacks that could take place and that have been taking place, and part of the reasons for bitcoin's resiliences has to do with monetary incentives that are outcome of it's built-in scarcity.

Various shitcoins are just imitators of bitcoin or they are trying to suck off of the bitcoin teat or to hang onto bitcoin's apron string (like bitcoin serving as a security blanket in which the various scams are allowed (or enabled) to exist because bitcoin provides the strongest security of any system (so far) known to man.

So yeah, not only does bitcoin have built in properties to change world financial systems, bitcoin is so disruptive that it ends up purifying and improving all kinds of monetary incentives and your various shitcoin involvement does not really help to bring any kind of clarity to you or anyone else why there is any value in getting involved in that crap.. even if sure you might be able to figure out some short-term angle in which you are able to eek out some short-term value until you get rug pulled.. but hey you are willing to take chances on those kinds of short-term bets, and those are your choices.  No one can rescue you from yourself, except yourself... .you have to figure out if you may well be putting too much time, energy in money into pump and dump crap when you got a pristine asset like bitcoin that is staring you right in the face.

By the way.. don't get me wrong.  I surely do not expect everyone to figure out that bitcoin is the best asset (even though it is), or that shitcoins will cease to exist, or that normies won't get distracted into investing into inferior products, because it is likely that there are going to be millions of new shitcoins in the next 100 years (maybe even in the next 5 years), and there will be many times in which the shitcoins will outperform bitcoin in the short-term.. and there is no real way of NOT seeing that value will continue to flow into bitcoin, but it may well not flow clearly or straightly.. so anyone (and everyone) is free to get distracted into investing into inferior products... and they are also free to invest into bitcoin.. so there is quite a bit of value to anyone who figures out bitcoin to be the place to be spending the overwhelming majority of their time, energies and value.. even if there might be some better short-term places that such time, energies and value could be placed... and it is up to you the extent to which you get distracted into nonsense and how much value you want to put into crap.


Yes.. the better ways of thinking about diversification tends to be across asset category types rather than within the same asset category.. .. and then within the categories, there could be some value if diversifying if the leader is not known, yet within the "crypto asset" category anyone should realize that bitcoin is the only one that really matters, so then if there are desires to diversify, then it should be into other asset categories such as property, equities, commodities (bitcoin could serve as this too), bonds and/or cash/cash equivalents.


Part of the value of the forum is that we do not need to agree, and you are free to make your various arguments and/or counter-arguments (if you have any) and also you should be making up your own mind, as well, regarding whether and how to invest into bitcoin or any other place (including into shitcoins) that you choose to spend your time, energies and value.


I doubt that any turned into shitcoins.  An overwhelming majority (if not all of them?) were already shitcoins from the beginning, but you were happy with them as long as their price was going up.


In terms of investing,  if you do not recognize bitcoin as the leader of the sector, then you likely do not understand bitcoin or the sector.

Now, if you are fucking around with pump and dump and trading, then that is a different set of skills (and or scams) and you can surely profit more in shitcoins, trading and scams than a pure bitcoin approach as long as you play your skills properly and/or you have decent and actionable information that ends up working out for you in those shorter term kinds of plays.


That comment makes no sense.  Bitcoin has not gone away.. so your elusion that some kind of a shitcoin is independent of bitcoin, then you better actually describe which one (examples) you are talking about.


You really are pumping the practicing of a shitcoin strategy. and diversification generally is across asset classes not within the same asset category..   Yeah you can diversify how you gamble too.. and hopefully people are not gambling when they choose their bitcoin allocation.. how they accumulate bitcoin, what their BTC accumulation targets might be and then how they might attempt to maintain their BTC stash once they get it up to their target level.

I imagine if there are 470k transactions pending, then I am going to try to adjust my fee setting to the amount that I think that the transaction will clear in the amount of time that I would like the transaction to go through. 

There are probably several levels of confidence, and if I can try to figure out how the fee system works in bitcoin, then I would try to set my fees in order to attempt to accomplish the level of satisfaction that I would like to get without necessarily pissing off people with whom I am transaction or losing any of my credibility if there either might be a relationship that I am trying to maintain or that I am not trying to unduly cause tarnish on my own reputation.

Of course, with some strangers, I might not give any shits about my reputation - and so then the receiver has to make sure that s/he is protected and does not give over the good or service without some kind of guarantee that the payment has gone through or will go through.

If I am dealing with a complete stranger and there is a timeline for the payment to be received, then likely I am going to set my fees at some percentage above the fees that had been clearing 20% to 50% higher should be good, unless the fee rate is moving around erratically.  Of course, some wallets are better than others at predicting reasonable fees, and surely more and more wallets are allowing the ability to customly set fees.

In my response to this post, I went to look at my 13 sats per vbyte transaction from nearly a week ago, and it is appears that it has cleared within the last 5 hours.. and there looks like there was a bit of a spike down in the pending transactions around the time that mine for 13 sats per vbyte cleared.. so yeah, that one took nearly a week to clear. but there wasn't any rush on it.. and maybe I would not have started to get worried until about mid-October, if it had not yet cleared by that time.

I am not even really opposed to what you are saying, Y3shot, because in theory what you are saying is correct.  However, what you are saying seems a bit patronizing because if we are dealing with adults rather than children, we have to presume some level of knowledge already exists with everyone. there are basic ideas about how much money is coming in versus what are the expenses and whether any money is left.  

Sure, young people probably need to spend a lot of time learning how to manage their money and figuring out how to invest, and what to invest in... but some of the learning comes from putting already existing knowledge to practice and learning along the way, rather than presuming that a lot of big and important things need to be learned about "the secrets of bitcoin" prior to our ability to start to take a stake into it.

The fact of the matter is that bitcoin is complicated as fuck when you come down to it, and so there is ONLY so much that each of us are going to know, so in order to develop an investment thesis, there are not necessarily needs to know everything from the start.


From the context of your post Asuspawer09, I can see that you are talking about bitcoin, so why do you feel some kind of need to substitute the word "cryptocurrency?"  

Are you trying to sound smarter?

Do you believe that strategies in regards to bitcoin are equally applicable to shitcoins? or various distracting and scammy shitcoin projects?

Your conscious and several times use of the term "cryptocurrency" seems to show that you have some reluctance in your own abilities to focus on bitcoin.. because you seem to think that there is something more broad that is going on and being contributed to bitcoin by the various affinity scam projects in the shitcoin space in which you are also giving legitimacy to that crap by using the word crypto rather than focusing on bitcoin in the way that you chose to respond to Ruttoshi.

Actually your several times use of the term cryptocurrency rather than using the word bitcoin (if that might have been what you were talking about?), converted a potentially otherwise good post into "gobble-dee-gook."

Yes.  I did put that linked thread on my list of "threads to get to," so I will be taking a look at the discussion in that thread, and sure it is possible that I might end up changing my mind in terms of what I already stated in my above post.  I surely don't claim to know a lot of technical matters, and sometimes the various projections of what could happen end up being more true than anticipated.

Let's just take the milli-sats rounding off as an example, if a channel closes that is imbalanced, then it seems that if 501 milli-sats belong to Bob and 499 milli-sats belong to charlie, then when the channel closes, bob would end up receiving the sat and charlie would not... so it is still the dividing of 1 sat into sub-units and the resolution of who owns the sat is resolved when the channel closes..

..and sure maybe at some point, on-chain bitcoin will start to recognize more than 8 decimal places in order for that sat rounding to not be necessary.. and if there are some rules that are proposed that end up creating new sats, then it does not seem too likely that those rules will end up being followed absent some changes in the ways that people (nodes) want to think about bitcoin.. and if for some reason people (nodes) might want to recognize some kind of tail-emission, then that surely would not be out of the realm of possibilities even though currently receptivity to the idea of employing tail-emissions in bitcoin does not seem to be the way very many nodes are currently thinking about bitcoin's scarcity and whether or not a tail-emission might become justifiable (and even conscientiously acceptable) at some point in the future.

There is likely an error and even some dangers in thinking if you think that there are any kinds of solid ways to become rich and/or successful more quickly.. so surely having persistence is good and working towards making progress is good, and many times the true value of richness and success takes a long time to play out, including experiencing the value of compounding.

Frequently getting rich and having success is being able to lessen the impacts of mistakes - even though it is likely true that some people will end up experiencing great streaks of high levels of progress by being in the right place at the right time due to some of their preparations.. and perhaps some luck as well.


I doubt that success if even guaranteed either.  There are a lot of examples of people doing the right thing but still not being successful.. so it is hard to guarantee short-cuts in terms of success and richness, even though there are quite a few practices that can likely increase odds for success and/or the making of progress towards greater success and richness.

Thanks for posting those various images.. and also providing some descriptions for what you are intending to show with each of them.

In order for images to show on your posts, you either need to buy a copper membership or your forum rank needs to be higher.. I think that "member" level allows the showing of images, and your rank is still showing as newbie.. even though it seems that your rank should be Jr member soon.. and also you have been receiving quite a few smerits that should cause your account to ranking up to "jr member" and then to "member" rank fairly soon.

My citing of your post facilitates the showing of your images, and to make your images more reader-friendly, I resized your  images down a bit (you can see that I added "width=444" to the html).

Whoaza!!!!!  That devolved quickly from nice, civil and polite circles and straight into the gutter.. .



Thanks a lot homer bomer.