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2321  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin vs Dow Jones Index on: June 25, 2011, 01:42:45 PM
You say bitcoin bubble, you get bitcoin bubble comic!

Actually it was a jab at the Dow Jones, but I like your comic anyway Smiley

2322  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin vs Dow Jones Index on: June 25, 2011, 01:33:19 PM
Someone call Dow Jones, I think they've got a 'bubble' on their hands. I like comparing charts, as the different characteristics tend to be scale-invariant over different timeframes, and indicate interesting correlations. For your consideration:



Interesting similarities, eh? I particularly like the small 'bump' and how it lines up really well before the subsequent fall-off. The fractal nature of charts never ceases to amaze me.
2323  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Where was Bitcoin in 2010? on: June 24, 2011, 11:27:01 PM
I love the fact slashdot hates bitcoin.

They are notoriously bad at making calls on technology trends. Most of their "will never make it" predictions end up being the most successful things of the year, if not decade. Hate on it all you want, slashdotters - just means something is going right.
2324  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The delay re-opening MtGox has been a good thing on: June 24, 2011, 07:42:26 PM
I find it fascinating that we're at 17 on tradehill. The spread on bid/offers has firmed up and there are plenty of size orders in the book. Perhaps we are in for a pleasant surprise when gox finally gets going again...
2325  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching amateur finance types flail on: June 24, 2011, 07:34:33 PM

You do know that in order to be taken seriously outside of the geek circles, Bitcoin needs people like the OP, right?

Understanding the technology does not a viable currency make.

Yes, but we don't need people like the original poster who provide a chart with nothing to back it up. Oh, and an 'investment pro' that thinks currency has 'revenue'. You've got to be kidding me. Sounds more like someone got out of business school and is a junior analyst somewhere...
2326  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching amateur finance types flail on: June 24, 2011, 07:10:04 PM
one thing is for sure, nobody on this forum is actually good at making money in the real financial market.  If you are good, you would not be here, you would be managing portfolios and dishing out advice for wealthy clients while raking in huge consulting/management fees.

Or, you would have made enough to comfortably surf the forums and watch everyone get BTC valuation completely and utterly wrong. I haven't seen so much 'bubble' talk since reading up on the South Sea Trading Company. I wouldn't be in equities if you paid me, because the dollar is about to keel over and die a horrible death. Good luck moving anything out of that deathtrap once it collapses.

That goes for standard banks too, I wouldn't have anything in there you aren't prepared to lose. Because when it happens, you better believe they'll clamp down on anyone pulling out any funds at all.

Best of luck!
2327  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Extended Difficulty Forecast on: June 24, 2011, 06:55:54 PM
chodpaba, thanks again for the numbers.

Been running a few, and I noticed that bitcoin charts actually didn't do the usual "Double the T-Hash rate" thing it usually does when we transition to another difficulty level. In fact, the suggested target of 1,378,416 in 1,976 blocks @ 7.85 blks/hr sounds downright reasonable at a slight decrease of -0.06%!

Wonder if they fixed their estimation windows/averaging.

2328  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MTGOX Limit Orders placed prior to the breach.. Not Cancelled?? on: June 24, 2011, 06:47:26 PM

As of this posting, there are six instances of "order" on the page you linked. Here is the first one from Mark:
Quote from: Mark Karpeles
Users may place orders to buy or sell, but they will be queued until we enable trading, which will most likely be a couple of hours after users are able to login to Mt.Gox.

Unfortunately, this does not answer the question, "Will limit orders that existed before the massive sell-off be restored or cancelled?"

The other 5 instances of the word "order" come in the comments section from users who seem to be just as unclear about the answer to the question. TraderTimm, thanks for providing the link, but I don't see any information on that page that clearly spells out what will happen to the order book when Mt Gox re-opens before trading resumes.

At best, I can infer that the order book will be restored by this statement:
Quote from: Mark Karpeles
The bitcoin will be back to around 17.5$/BTC after we rollback all trades that have happened after the huge Bitcoin sale that happened on June 20th near 3:00am (JST).
In order for the bitcoin to return the exchanged rate of ~17.5, he would have to restore the bid and ask orders (or at least the ones near that price). At least, that's my interpretation.

You seem really confident that a decision has been made and clearly communicated. I wish I was as confident!

As of this post, Tradehill is at 16.80 last, which validates another theory I had. Wouldn't it be interesting if it achieved parity with the last Mt.Gox rollback price?

Anyway, the way I see it is this - rollback means blow out every bid and offer after a certain timestamp. The last traded price is 17.50 in this case.

The order queue will be filled once the exchange opens an hour prior to trading, with timestamps on bid/offers providing tie-breakers in case there are other orders at the same price.

So, what this means is - any suggestion to open at a different price is invalid. It will be 17.50.

Any future 'tick' will be determined by the order book at that time, not by anything in this thread.

Therefore, this thread has zero effect on any part of the re-opening process.

I rest my case.
2329  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Watching amateur finance types flail on: June 24, 2011, 06:37:38 PM
I see you have the ability to post a candlestick chart, any other analysis besides the usual newbie - "It's a bubble"?

You'd think you were just parroting people in the forums, honestly. I look forward to your next post filled with fundamental and/or technical analysis.

2330  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MTGOX Limit Orders placed prior to the breach.. Not Cancelled?? on: June 24, 2011, 05:24:21 PM
I'm just glad the decision has already been made.

Keep thinking this thread will change anything, though. It's been amusing to read. I can't wait for the whole Mt. Gox opening to be over, so you people can go back to the usual 'important' tasks at hand, such as proclaiming how many BTC you've "lost".

Honestly, the whole forum has been a dog's breakfast ever since the hysteria took over.


And what is that decision?

(errata snipped)


All relevant information can be found here:

https://support.mtgox.com/entries/20208066-huge-bitcoin-sell-off-due-to-a-compromised-account-rollback

I don't see any mention where forum threads are being considered as an influence for future plans, so I'd say the decisions are already made.

Hence the irrelevance of this thread.



2331  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Bitcoin Historical Data - Daily Interval Bars Please? on: June 24, 2011, 04:03:22 PM
Hi, did some searches on the forum for "Bitcoin Tabular Data" and "Bitcoin Historical Data", but only turned up this thread with a 404'd site response: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=1593.0

What I'm looking for, simply, is tabular data going back at least to March (or more, if possible) of 2011. Can be in a csv or xls format with columns arranged like so:

<Date: MM/DD/YY>,<Open>,<High>,<Low>,<Close>,<Volume>

I plan to use this for charting, intending to update and try to release some analysis for free, if anyone is interested in helping. I realize that bitcoincharts exist, but the data available there is of the intraday 'tick' resolution, and it is a bear frankly to get it all culled down neatly.

Can anyone point me in the right direction for Daily tabular BTC data?

Thanks in advance!
2332  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What are the odds to never mine a block with 500Mh/s solo? on: June 24, 2011, 03:59:52 PM
Although this should be asked in the 'Mining' sub-forum, I'll bite.

If you believe in reinforcing the structural components of bitcoin, you'll mine solo.

If you have no patience, you'll mine in a pool, but sacrifice the peer-to-peer robustness that solo mining provides. You're essentially at the mercy of pool downtime, not to mention contributing to a potential 51%+ attack scenario, or being a victim of a pool DDoS attack from an outside source.

Choose wisely...
2333  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: MTGOX Limit Orders placed prior to the breach.. Not Cancelled?? on: June 24, 2011, 03:53:16 PM
I'm just glad the decision has already been made.

Keep thinking this thread will change anything, though. It's been amusing to read. I can't wait for the whole Mt. Gox opening to be over, so you people can go back to the usual 'important' tasks at hand, such as proclaiming how many BTC you've "lost".

Honestly, the whole forum has been a dog's breakfast ever since the hysteria took over.
2334  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Have you ever read a mainstream news articles that got Bitcoins right? on: June 24, 2011, 03:49:23 PM
The Economist article got 'it right'.

Also, I have to wonder how many one-sentence threads calista is going to post. Sure you shouldn't just be spewing out nonsense on twitter? It seems to fit your format.
2335  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What would it take for you to buy a plane ticket and go to Tokyo? on: June 24, 2011, 03:41:59 PM
what developments at mt gox should or should not happen such that you would ask for leave at work, buy a plane ticket from jal/ana, hop on the red-eye flight, navigate the tokyo's subway and knock on their office door?

I'd be careful making bold assertions while intending to travel internationally. Those kinds of things aren't looked upon favorably at passport control.

Also, you realize the hosting address may be a server rack at a co-location building? You've thought this through, right?

Riiiiiiiiiiiight....

2336  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Square²Wear Slogan Contest (win 1.5 btc) on: June 24, 2011, 03:34:37 PM
Square²Wear: Where 90 degrees becomes cool.
2337  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: A question to all speculators - What if Bitcoins' price just flatline? on: June 24, 2011, 03:31:04 PM
If prices 'flatline' then I imagine people will do one of two things:

1. Buy as much as they can with two hands.

2. Panic and sell at near 0.01 prices.

Since I was able to come up with an answer to your question so easily, I have to wonder why you bothered with it in the first place. I might as well have posted a thread of my own saying:

"What if everyone runs into the haberdashery, what will happen to hat prices?"

What indeed...
2338  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin price is too high at 20$/BTC on: June 24, 2011, 03:22:03 PM
There is no such thing as "too high" of a price. It just comes down to demand and supply.

Famous words before every bubble.

Property.

Dot Com Boom.

Plenty more examples.

If your 'bubble' assertions were true, then TradeHill would've been a collapsed heap of nothing but offers in the market. Yet, I open my browser and see them trading at 15.45 last.

Is 15 'too high'?

To you, I suppose, thinking that any sustained price level is too 'bubblicious', it may be. To me, I understand how price fluctuates and know how to formulate a trading strategy to capture this. Right now, I'm fine with the price where it is because I not only see the last quote, but what the potential target is.

Keep saying 'bubble' though, I suppose you have a chance every hundred years of being right. If you remain solvent, that is.
2339  Economy / Economics / Bitcoin Historical Data - Daily Interval Bars Please? on: June 24, 2011, 07:34:54 AM
Hi, did some searches on the forum for "Bitcoin Tabular Data" and "Bitcoin Historical Data", but only turned up this thread with a 404'd site response: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=1593.0

What I'm looking for, simply, is tabular data going back at least to March (or more, if possible) of 2011. Can be in a csv or xls format with columns arranged like so:

<Date: MM/DD/YY>,<Open>,<High>,<Low>,<Close>,<Volume>

I plan to use this for charting, intending to update and try to release some analysis for free, if anyone is interested in helping. I realize that bitcoincharts exist, but the data available there is of the intraday 'tick' resolution, and it is a bear frankly to get it all culled down neatly.

Can anyone point me in the right direction for Daily tabular BTC data?

Thanks in advance!
2340  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin price is too high at 20$/BTC on: June 24, 2011, 12:57:17 AM
There is no such thing as "too high" of a price. It just comes down to demand and supply. Saying it's "too high" will prevent you from making an underlying analysis. You can't be choking at the price level, look at the big picture and extrapolate however you see fit.

For me, I see value increasing over time.
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