Updated first post. I wonder if people do not believe a new ATH is imminent soon...

Speaking of commodities, look how the price of gold behaves similar to bitcoin, except that the last bull market lasted a decade!

any min now we'll be back above 460

On piles of government money.

Not really (I convert it all to bitcoins), I encourage everyone to take as much money out of the hands of the state as possible.

I'm still waiting for the American voter to get smart and make my job go away. I have little confidence that that will ever happen.

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this.  There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings.  So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation.  Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.  

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k".  Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today.  If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Yes, I attempted to make my above highlighted statement to be within what I really believe, and I framed my statement general enough that it is reflective of what I believe at the moment to be within reasonable possibilities.  

Concerning my own buying and trading strategy, I believe that I have structured my own buying/trading consistently with my beliefs and my financial circumstances.

A quick overview of my own bitcoin situation:  I started buying at $1,200 in November 2013 and fairly consistently, I continued to buy at various times and in various amounts down to $182 in January 2015 (a form of dollar cost averaging, but not selling any BTC during that time).

Between January 2015 and October 2015 I continued to buy at various price points throughout the $200s (more or less to accumulate BTC and to bring down my average cost per BTC), and beginning in October 2015, I began to trade BTF in the mid $200s, retrospectively realizing, as it was on its way up to $502.  

Initially, in October 2015, I only authorized myself to trade small amounts and small percentages of my portfolio, and the authorization level became higher and higher, as the price rose until now.. however, note that during the price spike to  $502 on November 4, my BTC portfolio and trading strategy (and experienced) was not very well tuned to prepare for that situation, and I was not very well able to take advantage of that short-term price explosion.

By the way, regarding my forum posts, starting in about mid-2014, I discontinued telling very many specifics regarding my own actual buying amounts, but instead to talk in terms of percentages and other kinds of overall framing of my buying or approximations or ranges that would help to illustrate my BTC accumulation and dollar cost averaging strategies and to attempt to brainstorm feedback to the extent that forum members would engage in such discussions.

So, for example, after October 2015, I have posted as hypotheticals regarding my staggering of projected trades, and in this regard, hypothetically to suggest that "here is what I am doing in proportion to my total BTC holdings, if I were to have 100 BTC in my portfolio, blah blah blah" and that would show my projection of my plans to buy BTC on the way down and to sell BTC on the way up... which is consistent with my approach throughout..  while throughout, only trading a few percentage of my total BTC holdings at a time.  

By the way, since my BTC portfolio is only recently coming out of the red (depending on how it is framed), I have not really been in a great position to sell large amounts of my BTC holdings, because it would not make sense to take such chances and to potentially lock in losses, which I really did not want to do - because my view has always been that BTC fundamentals are strong enough that I am kind of presuming that it is going to go up sooner or later.. hoping for sooner, but prepared for later, just in case.

Contrary to what you seem to be asserting (or implying) bitebits, I don't see my BTC trading strategy to be contrary to my view that BTC prices have decent probabilities of reaching $25k to $250k within 5-10 years.  Decent probabilities can mean a lot of things including beliefs of anything between a 10% chance and a 90% chance, and these kinds of speculations about probabilities can change based on a large variety of factors - and I am going to play conservative with my own finances, and I am not going to put a large amount of money on probabilities that are based on both math and human actions (it is not just a math formula that is inevitable).  Anyhow,   I believe that I am acting consistent with my beliefs in that I am accumulating BTC (and have accumulated a decent amount of BTC), and I plan to continue to trade BTC in order to both accumulate and to cash out of some of my BTC holdings (but at the same time buying on dips in order to preserve or increase the quantity of my BTC holdings with the view that BTC prices are going to continue to go up).  

Somehow to me, bitebits, I get the impression from your above comment that you believe that in order for me to be consistent with my views, I should be buying more and more BTC and even leveraging more in order to buy BTC because the present value of such a view (if I really believe it) would seem to dictate that I invest more financial resources into BTC.  

Really, I don't think so.  

As you recognized, my disposition has been to attempt to prepare for either price direction and not to gamble too much with my BTC holdings or my total financial situation, and really I tend to be disinclined towards any kind of major leveraging (because guys can easily lose a lot of their BTC holdings based on short term manipulations when they attempt to leverage, which is a form of too risky gambling, in my view).  

In fact if BTC prices were to spurt up, let's say 10x within one or two months, maybe I would end up selling nearly 50% of my holdings on the way up... but even in that scenario, I would likely still retain 50% of my BTC holdings, and I would still be doing pretty well in terms of total value.  I will concede that I feel that I have a pretty decent plan, and I believe that I have pretty decent abilities to stick with my intended plan; however, when push comes to shove and the rubber hits the road, I cannot be completely certain that I may not make some mistakes and maybe panic at a few moments and engage in behavior that I did not plan.  

Of course my plan is not set in stone, and my so far practicing with it (with smaller amounts) is providing good experiences for me to be better prepared for the future if we experience some surprise price movements.  Anyhow, I plan to kind of adapt my overall plan to how I see the BTC price dynamics playing out and to tweak here and there, if I believe it is necessary, as I go along while in the meantime attempting to keep a broader vision in mind to be prepared for either price direction.

 I hope that makes sense to clear up what seems to be a kind of inconsistency in my position from your point of view.

By the way, in a nut shell, what are you doing in terms of attempting to prepare your BTC holdings in a way that you believe is consistent with your view of BTC's future and in light of your own financial circumstances?

Still, no "complete picture", i am just extrapolating from my own knowledge/experience. But, short "answers" (more like speculations):

1. While the invention, or, rather the realization of how to run a trustless recorded timestamp server through decentralized consensus through PoW aka blockchain already made it into the public, and proved to be the most resilient application run by more than 1 computer at the same time connected to the internet, "the Satoshi" only made a possibility, not a certainty, not a definitive. Alas, the genie is out of the bottle, so to speak. That, and Heisenberg (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle which, apparently seems to work in the macro world as well, see https://www.ted.com/talks/jim_al_khalili_how_quantum_biology_might_explain_life_s_biggest_questions), is why it is "IF", despite math. :-)

2. There is a great speech, i can't recall which one, from Andreas Antonopoulos, where he discusses this matter (find it on youtube, either Prague, or Zürich?). The leading sentence is: "i have seen no global governmental consensus on ANYTHING" (not even on climate change, despite it might kill us all, as he adds). Or, you can learn about what happened, when the politburo banned the holding and trading of USD in the Soviet Union in the 70/80s- hint, it became the no.1 bribing instrument for citizens:-)

3. That question alone would require, 600 pages, in a book (i am working on it :-D) ). After i have spent, like 2-3 nights, whisky, patience and curiosity - as many before me - that STEM knowledge is an exponential curve, and not since the 60's, but since BC. 500- alas. Hence, the probability to foresee anything tech related is bound to diminishing returns - an inverse exponential curve , means to predict the correct path to predict future improvements shrinks exponentially.

With this in my mind, if Bitcoin, the protocol is still up and running in just 5 years, say 2020-2021, it might already have so alien applications, like an additional layer, that none of us can think off right now, delivering such humongous utility to users, that would be laughed at today, but will worth enormous economic value per entry units (=btc). Just like it was unfathomable to say video conference for FREE, in 1992's internet. Bitcoin, the network is nothing more than internet, it is like permissionless, uncensorable packet transfer from A to B IP address , but this one is also a registering public ledger of packets going from A to B, so we can tie value, because everyone has to acknowledge that we "have" that value, by the mechanisms of the blockchain.

what's wrong with this thread?

Further up there was a page of fruitful, interesting and polite conversation.

Am I on the wrong forum?

Yeah, apparently now this is some kind of biology forum. I expect cytoarchitectonics to be explained next.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/09/politics/donald-trump-national-debt-strategy/index.html

Trump: U.S. will never default 'because you print the money'

If he becomes president this could get really "funny".In that case I advise to buy moaaar bitcoins!!

I am mostly* a follower of the Austrian economic thought, so whatever the digits are now, they are the digits right now. The market - the sum of all of the participants - is what matters. Since value is subjective, hence a mirage, it does not matter what i think, or people with real talents :-) think, if the other 99,9999% does not care, we can s*** up the coins to our...well it is digital, so we can not, but you get the picture :-D

While those who understand why Bitcoin is a paradigm shift in the social construct (hierarchical, pyramid like topography versus anarcho-capitalist, flat and voluntary - so to speak spontaneous order), the overwhelming majority prefers the "matrix of status quo" of today. Why?

1. Thinking is hard. It is, the brain can use up to 40% of calories (given that outside temperature is near body levels) taken, so it is an evolutionary instinct to act "non conscious",
2. Risk aversion /Failure aversion. It is just basic human nature, evolution taught us not to "rock the boat", for it is high risk/high reward, yet too much cortisol** (stress hormone),
3. Herd mentality: to be honest, most of the populace act as their long term female companion dictates, aka, peaceful civilizations tend to be show higher mammalian herd tendencies, like socialism - until it collapses, and rampant and uncontrolled fight began for status and power between males,
4. The need for a pastor; the herd will follow any leader who has been showing power in the past. See herd mentality, and historical figures inspiring unimaginable acts from "ordinary people".

The point is, IMHO, as ECB said before, the "marketing", human psyche has more to do with bitcoin's success than any technical detail. Do anyone has the illusion, that Mrs. Widow at the age 67, or Mr. Accountant in the cubicle knows about, or will EVER comprehend the blocksize debate? No, they will only adopt bitcoin, when they have so huge and obvious loss in comfort/utility/told by their gossip tabloid, in everyday financial interaction, that remaining in the old construct of hierarchical, top-down, command economy collapses. That is okay, they took zero effort, zero risk, so why would evolution reward them with a prize? They will not be rich, but they can continue to function in an otherwise unsustainable economic system of the today's debt based madness.

Before that, most millennials, X-gen, and the likes of us will stack up bitcoins not for everyday use by necessity, but for hardcore, sweet greedy, speculative "easy life, early retirement" life, IF we are right, i might add, but i have 0 doubts, this is math after all :-P


*I say mostly, because phenomenons evolve, and there is no absolute perfect "school of thought" in my mind.
** For the really hardcore people. this is an adequate summary of cortisol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortisol, TLDR; stress induce adrenaline production - "running from lion" - the body interprets this as a danger for life, and with adrenaline, cortisol is bound to be produced to counter balance it; decreases several key functions in response, like your immune system (IFN - interferon gamma globulin level reduced, which is kind of a natural microbe killer), by reducing B-cell response, reduced wound healing through http://www.psyneuen-journal.com/article/S0306-4530%2803%2900144-6/abstract, also messes with your glucose levels (omg am fat!). Read MFs!

After ignoring all the troll clones there is a very interesting conversation going on here. Keep it up fella's!

This is theory and throwing figures around. What it truly requires is people. Alot of real people. Real people take alot of convincing and they usually don't do what you want them to.

Yes, and yes, for both of you Btw, thats the chart i was looking for/based my raw calculation on, and thx for the original quote as well Fakhoury!

People never do want you want them to do I was telling my dearest, old friend to postpone a house renovation last year, and get into BTC ffs. He did the renovation, spent the money. He would have basically get it for free this summer, with 240usd back than - 450 usd btc today, but hey, his loss.

Everyone in my social circle knows about bitcoin, i constantly bombard them with it:-) Yet, to this day, after 3 years of "harassing" none of my family/friends/employees bought a single satoshi. This is still innovator phase, not even "early adopters". But i know people enough, and they will TOTALLY FOMO with red eyed greed once we surpass the 1200$ ATH again, imagine the media frenzy and hysteria, like headless chickens. Because, as we know, "smart ones" buy the uptrend, and sell the downtrend. That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death

edit: btw dear central bank :-D you are right, but do not forget, that in international export-import trade payment is a messed/fucked up s**t. Just imagine a Brazilian exporter asking bitcoin payment instead of their 20%+ inflating currency, from, like Europe, in EUR, which lost ~10% value vs USD in 2015. Both parties come out better, way less overhead, the 0-24 exchanges minimize arbitrage loss, if they use/hold BTC for the production/sales payments. They just do not know it yet. But, imagine if a few (i mean thousands) manufacturers, importers realize this, after being so blind, they will like "oh, i shall demand btc for my supply line, it would increase my margin way above market average!".

Like some businesses, i had to actually told them, that credit card payment is not "profit for them", if the tx costs for card payments is higher than their avg. marginal profit rate, which is common in many places. (A grocery shop paid 2,2% aggregated card fees, and they have a net profit rate of >2%. "But people spend more with CC," said the owner. I said, "no, people make more loss for you with CC payments, it is worse than not buying anything". She did not understand.)

That is why i think the next big wave will be institutions, and international businesses, and not "Joes". Joes will be the 3rd wave!

I have no idea. As none else has, if they do they lie :-) Best to not be wrong is not give predictions! But i enjoy the subject, so here are a few thoughts, i try to be TLDR;

If You saw that graph from my post, you have seen the potential wealth to growth "from". I can only say what Satoshi said about the 20 years volume (either HUGE, or zero), and volume derives from utility, and utility is a strong indicator of value in any asset class (or currency if that matters). As i have said in my angry rant, a 10.000$/BTC would be still less than 200 billion usd market cap today, which is laughably still nothing, a small mid-east country's yearly GDP with 5 million population, trading effectively raw cotton and some minerals. Nothing.

My point is: 99,9% of the populace could not imagine any useful mass usage in the first DECADE of their time for electricity/combustion engine/computers/internet, and see how most of us would literally die without them today.

To answer your question :-)

I can only say a ratio of BTC versus other store of value assets; i call it the lag of knowledge spread: mass psychosis fueled by both media and daily p2p interactions, greed, FOMO, sudden surge in "i should check this bitcoin thing out" will multiply adoption (hodlers and day-to-day users) by 100-1000 folds by 2020-2025. That is my prediction based on every other similar technology, minus the 2 important facts that: bitcoin can be money, and money is 2nd only to sex for "things worth killing for"; and the physical infrastructure is already layed down - oh and also, concurring currencies are a zero sum system. I mean, people can only have one of these combinations of any two currency with a finite purchasing power:
0-100, anything between 1-99, and 100-0, so when the perceived equilibrium is breached, it is an avalanche effect for the one below the threshold, for none wants to remain in the "dying" currency). From today's 0,004% M2 we should reach up to 0,4%-4% realistically in 10 years.

 It does not necessarily means 100-1000x price increase ( i would say more, because it is a self reinforcing, exponentially (cost= N, benefit=N square) increasing network effect, but we must also count in non mathematical elements, like politics, perceptions,  which are the exact opposites of economic rationality.

edit: that meant to be 100-1000, but a bit too much whine (the red liquid one, not the angry:)

Any time now would be good

I think guys like these are everywhere here and they're lost causes. They'll sell at $500-600 something. If that's the limits of their comprehension then so be it.

That reminds me, i got a bit frustrated in another post about the ignorance how many can not fathom something like even 10k$/btc, like EVER (lol) -i wonder what they are doing here than - and replied this:

Actually I am neutral now.

Breaking and closing above 2990 for 1 day will make me uber bullish but you have to understand:

What happened when we kept testing 220$?

The inverse may happen now that we test so many times 460-475 (around 3000cny).

So things may get really ugly from here too.

this time it´s different^TM

2950 held, that is very important.

2990 we will probably have to say goodbye to 2000s for good!

Meanwhile, GBTC hammers SP500:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24spx%3AGBTC,PGPBDANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]

yeah 500 usd would be nice indeed.....I keep creeping up to 100 btc then I blow money on more miner crap...keeps slipping away....

(now back to 95 btc again)

yo/yo

but anyway the goal is 100 btc then the REST will pay down my equip debt till they doorstop...thus I can say I have 100 btc with XXX
invested (ouch) and instead say I have YYY invested (yea!) when the miners meet their doom as 'doorstops'

(mining with KNC Titans LTC still profitable at 14c kwh ...hard to believe but true)

but 500 usd .....would 'stoke' my feeble illusion and hope that 1000 usd btc is 'just around the corner' or in crypto BTC speak "Two more weeks" (tm BFL)

Let's say I launch an ETF in London. You live in the States. Can you create an "investment company" in the UK which then buys from my ETF in London?

Can US law get involved with the internal processes of a company that operates abroad? Shouldn't the regulatory barrier extend only up to the level where you own the shares to your company and get profits or added value which might be taxable in the States?

The US govvy 'protects' its tax cattle herd very jealously, the more than 4000 citizens per annum trying to leave have to dump their passports http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/08/news/americans-citizenship-renunciation/index.html and have to pay huge amounts of money and now IRS is actively stopping them from leaving by removing passports http://www.naturalnews.com/052138_IRS_US_passports_travel_restrictions.html