Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Blacula X]

That reminds me, i got a bit frustrated in another post about the ignorance how many can not fathom something like even 10k$/btc, like EVER (lol) -i wonder what they are doing here than - and replied this:
< snip >

Cromulent, embiggening stuff. I laughed, I cried, I pooped myself a little.

@Jimbo: Oxymoron, isn't that the guy trying to boot percs?

[AZwarel]

That reminds me, i got a bit frustrated in another post about the ignorance how many can not fathom something like even 10k$/btc, like EVER (lol) -i wonder what they are doing here than - and replied this:

I think guys like these are everywhere here and they're lost causes. They'll sell at $500-600 something. If that's the limits of their comprehension then so be it.

Agree. I start to realize, that most people posting mindless stuff around the forum (or r/Bitcoin) never even bothered to read/understand the White Paper - and surprisingly, this beloved Wall Observer is one of the best posting crowd (sic) around here, well except for the Technical Discussion part :-) . And they call themselves "investors".

Nor the "investors" ever visited a meet up/conference/ in person/online, watched a bitcoin tutorial like the Blackboard series, listened to a podcast like LetsTalkBTC, amused by an awesome Andreas speech, or even has any background knowledge about economics, finance, or the history of STEM.

Weird, so many will (not) telling the sad story to their grandchildren about the bitcoins he sold at 600$ back in 40 years ago, never could afford to buy back, while it could buy them something like an island for every offspring in the future today...

[Blacula X]

so many will (not) telling the sad story to their grandchildren

>grandchildren
Doesn't that usually involve a human female?

[AZwarel]

Thanks for sharing this post with us, AZwarel. Appreciated

Would you please tell us where you see Bitcoin in terms of price in the coming 10 - 15 years ?

Thanks again

I have no idea. As none else has, if they do they lie :-) Best to not be wrong is not give predictions! But i enjoy the subject, so here are a few thoughts, i try to be TLDR;

If You saw that graph from my post, you have seen the potential wealth to growth "from". I can only say what Satoshi said about the 20 years volume (either HUGE, or zero), and volume derives from utility, and utility is a strong indicator of value in any asset class (or currency if that matters). As i have said in my angry rant, a 10.000$/BTC would be still less than 200 billion usd market cap today, which is laughably still nothing, a small mid-east country's yearly GDP with 5 million population, trading effectively raw cotton and some minerals. Nothing.

My point is: 99,9% of the populace could not imagine any useful mass usage in the first DECADE of their time for electricity/combustion engine/computers/internet, and see how most of us would literally die without them today.

To answer your question :-)

I can only say a ratio of BTC versus other store of value assets; i call it the lag of knowledge spread: mass psychosis fueled by both media and daily p2p interactions, greed, FOMO, sudden surge in "i should check this bitcoin thing out" will multiply adoption (hodlers and day-to-day users) by 100-1000 folds by 2020-2025. That is my prediction based on every other similar technology, minus the 2 important facts that: bitcoin can be money, and money is 2nd only to sex for "things worth killing for"; and the physical infrastructure is already layed down - oh and also, concurring currencies are a zero sum system. I mean, people can only have one of these combinations of any two currency with a finite purchasing power:
0-100, anything between 1-99, and 100-0, so when the perceived equilibrium is breached, it is an avalanche effect for the one below the threshold, for none wants to remain in the "dying" currency). From today's 0,004% M2 we should reach up to 0,4%-4% realistically in 10 years.

 It does not necessarily means 100-1000x price increase ( i would say more, because it is a self reinforcing, exponentially (cost= N, benefit=N square) increasing network effect, but we must also count in non mathematical elements, like politics, perceptions,  which are the exact opposites of economic rationality.

edit: that meant to be 100-1000, but a bit too much whine (the red liquid one, not the angry:)

[AZwarel]

so many will (not) telling the sad story to their grandchildren

>grandchildren
Doesn't that usually involve a human female?

:-D

Well, with enough 500$ sold bitcoins, they might afford http://www.webmd.com/infertility-and-reproduction/features/womb-rent-surrogate-mothers-india

(12,000$ for a baby from your own DNA)

[2015Bubble]

Doesn't that usually involve a human female?

I've heard of them. One day I hope to meet one. I've heard they're kinda cool and they can do stuff that boys can't. No one'll tell me what it is.

there turds smells like flowers

[Fakhoury]

Thanks for sharing this post with us, AZwarel. Appreciated

Would you please tell us where you see Bitcoin in terms of price in the coming 10 - 15 years ?

Thanks again

I have no idea. As none else has, if they do they lie :-) Best to not be wrong is not give predictions! But i enjoy the subject, so here are a few thoughts, i try to be TLDR;

If You saw that graph from my post, you have seen the potential wealth to growth "from". I can only say what Satoshi said about the 20 years volume (either HUGE, or zero), and volume derives from utility, and utility is a strong indicator of value in any asset class (or currency if that matters). As i have said in my angry rant, a 10.000$/BTC would be still less than 200 billion usd market cap today, which is laughably still nothing, a small mid-east country's yearly GDP with 5 million population, trading effectively raw cotton and some minerals. Nothing.

My point is: 99,9% of the populace could not imagine any useful mass usage in the first DECADE of their time for electricity/combustion engine/computers/internet, and see how most of us would literally die without them today.

To answer your question :-)

I can only say a ratio of BTC versus other store of value assets; i call it the lag of knowledge spread: mass psychosis fueled by both media and daily p2p interactions, greed, FOMO, sudden surge in "i should check this bitcoin thing out" will multiply adoption (hodlers and day-to-day users) by 100-1000 folds by 2020-2025. That is my prediction based on every other similar technology, minus the 2 important facts that: bitcoin can be money, and money is 2nd only to sex for "things worth killing for"; and the physical infrastructure is already layed down - oh and also, concurring currencies are a zero sum system. I mean, people can only have one of these combinations of any two currency with a finite purchasing power:
0-100, anything between 1-99, and 100-0, so when the perceived equilibrium is breached, it is an avalanche effect for the one below the threshold, for none wants to remain in the "dying" currency). From today's 0,004% M2 we should reach up to 0,4%-4% realistically in 10 years.

 It does not necessarily means 100-1000x price increase ( i would say more, because it is a self reinforcing, exponentially (cost= N, benefit=N square) increasing network effect, but we must also count in non mathematical elements, like politics, perceptions,  which are the exact opposites of economic rationality.

edit: that meant to be 100-1000, but a bit too much whine (the red liquid one, not the angry:)

Thank you for your reply, I've learned a lot from it.

In regards to this pie chart



We are talking about $25K - $250K in the coming decade or so without taking into considerations non mathematical elements, am I right ?

[European Central Bank]

We are talking about $25K - $250K in the coming decade or so without taking into considerations non mathematical elements, am I right ?

This is theory and throwing figures around. What it truly requires is people. Alot of real people. Real people take alot of convincing and they usually don't do what you want them to.

[AZwarel]

We are talking about $25K - $250K in the coming decade or so without taking into considerations non mathematical elements, am I right ?

This is theory and throwing figures around. What it truly requires is people. Alot of real people. Real people take alot of convincing and they usually don't do what you want them to.

Yes, and yes, for both of you Btw, thats the chart i was looking for/based my raw calculation on, and thx for the original quote as well Fakhoury!

People never do want you want them to do I was telling my dearest, old friend to postpone a house renovation last year, and get into BTC ffs. He did the renovation, spent the money. He would have basically get it for free this summer, with 240usd back than - 450 usd btc today, but hey, his loss.

Everyone in my social circle knows about bitcoin, i constantly bombard them with it:-) Yet, to this day, after 3 years of "harassing" none of my family/friends/employees bought a single satoshi. This is still innovator phase, not even "early adopters". But i know people enough, and they will TOTALLY FOMO with red eyed greed once we surpass the 1200$ ATH again, imagine the media frenzy and hysteria, like headless chickens. Because, as we know, "smart ones" buy the uptrend, and sell the downtrend. That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death

edit: btw dear central bank :-D you are right, but do not forget, that in international export-import trade payment is a messed/fucked up s**t. Just imagine a Brazilian exporter asking bitcoin payment instead of their 20%+ inflating currency, from, like Europe, in EUR, which lost ~10% value vs USD in 2015. Both parties come out better, way less overhead, the 0-24 exchanges minimize arbitrage loss, if they use/hold BTC for the production/sales payments. They just do not know it yet. But, imagine if a few (i mean thousands) manufacturers, importers realize this, after being so blind, they will like "oh, i shall demand btc for my supply line, it would increase my margin way above market average!".

Like some businesses, i had to actually told them, that credit card payment is not "profit for them", if the tx costs for card payments is higher than their avg. marginal profit rate, which is common in many places. (A grocery shop paid 2,2% aggregated card fees, and they have a net profit rate of >2%. "But people spend more with CC," said the owner. I said, "no, people make more loss for you with CC payments, it is worse than not buying anything". She did not understand.)

That is why i think the next big wave will be institutions, and international businesses, and not "Joes". Joes will be the 3rd wave!

[Fakhoury]

We are talking about $25K - $250K in the coming decade or so without taking into considerations non mathematical elements, am I right ?

This is theory and throwing figures around. What it truly requires is people. Alot of real people. Real people take alot of convincing and they usually don't do what you want them to.

I agree mate, we are in the "speculation" sub-forum

I do understand also that theory is something, and putting it into works IRL is another thing, totally agree as well with convincing people with what you think.

We are talking about $25K - $250K in the coming decade or so without taking into considerations non mathematical elements, am I right ?

This is theory and throwing figures around. What it truly requires is people. Alot of real people. Real people take alot of convincing and they usually don't do what you want them to.

Yes, and yes, for both of you Btw, thats the chart i was looking for/based my raw calculation on, and thx for the original quote as well Fakhoury!

People never do want you want them to do I was telling my dearest, old friend to postpone a house renovation last year, and get into BTC ffs. He did the renovation, spent the money. He would have basically get it for free this summer, with 240usd back than - 450 usd btc today, but hey, his loss.

Everyone in my social circle knows about bitcoin, i constantly bombard them with it:-) Yet, to this day, after 3 years of "harassing" none of my family/friends/employees bought a single satoshi. This is still innovator phase, not even "early adopters". But i know people enough, and they will TOTALLY FOMO with red eyed greed once we surpass the 1200$ ATH again, imagine the media frenzy and hysteria, like headless chickens. Because, as we know, "smart ones" buy the uptrend, and sell the downtrend. That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death

edit: btw dear central bank :-D you are right, but do not forget, that in international export-import trade payment is a messed/fucked up s**t. Just imagine a Brazilian exporter asking bitcoin payment instead of their 20%+ inflating currency, from, like Europe, in EUR, which lost ~10% value vs USD in 2015. Both parties come out better, way less overhead, the 0-24 exchanges minimize arbitrage loss, if they use/hold BTC for the production/sales payments. They just do not know it yet. But, imagine if a few (i mean thousands) manufacturers, importers realize this, after being so blind, they will like "oh, i shall demand btc for my supply line, it would increase my margin way above market average!".

Like some businesses, i had to actually told them, that credit card payment is not "profit for them", if the tx costs for card payments is higher than their avg. marginal profit rate, which is common in many places. (A grocery shop paid 2,2% aggregated card fees, and they have a net profit rate of >2%. "But people spend more with CC," said the owner. I said, "no, people make more loss for you with CC payments, it is worse than not buying anything". She did not understand.)

That is why i think the next big wave will be institutions, and international businesses, and not "Joes". Joes will be the 3rd wave!

You are most welcome my new dear friend

I extremely enjoyed how deep into economics and math you are as well as your way of thinking.

Btw, I said earlier this exact same sentence (That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death ).

What do you think about triple digit BTC value, way too much or ?

[X badapple X]

this is ridiculous, pop over 460 already.

The great psychological resistance @460. Once broken tho, smooth rocketing all the way to ... oh, 460.5, at least

$460. Why can't we break through?

[AZwarel]

You are most welcome my new dear friend

I extremely enjoyed how deep into economics and math you are as well as your way of thinking.

Btw, I said earlier this exact same sentence (That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death ).

What do you think about triple digit BTC value, way too much or ?

I am mostly* a follower of the Austrian economic thought, so whatever the digits are now, they are the digits right now. The market - the sum of all of the participants - is what matters. Since value is subjective, hence a mirage, it does not matter what i think, or people with real talents :-) think, if the other 99,9999% does not care, we can s*** up the coins to our...well it is digital, so we can not, but you get the picture :-D

While those who understand why Bitcoin is a paradigm shift in the social construct (hierarchical, pyramid like topography versus anarcho-capitalist, flat and voluntary - so to speak spontaneous order), the overwhelming majority prefers the "matrix of status quo" of today. Why?

1. Thinking is hard. It is, the brain can use up to 40% of calories (given that outside temperature is near body levels) taken, so it is an evolutionary instinct to act "non conscious",
2. Risk aversion /Failure aversion. It is just basic human nature, evolution taught us not to "rock the boat", for it is high risk/high reward, yet too much cortisol** (stress hormone),
3. Herd mentality: to be honest, most of the populace act as their long term female companion dictates, aka, peaceful civilizations tend to be show higher mammalian herd tendencies, like socialism - until it collapses, and rampant and uncontrolled fight began for status and power between males,
4. The need for a pastor; the herd will follow any leader who has been showing power in the past. See herd mentality, and historical figures inspiring unimaginable acts from "ordinary people".

The point is, IMHO, as ECB said before, the "marketing", human psyche has more to do with bitcoin's success than any technical detail. Do anyone has the illusion, that Mrs. Widow at the age 67, or Mr. Accountant in the cubicle knows about, or will EVER comprehend the blocksize debate? No, they will only adopt bitcoin, when they have so huge and obvious loss in comfort/utility/told by their gossip tabloid, in everyday financial interaction, that remaining in the old construct of hierarchical, top-down, command economy collapses. That is okay, they took zero effort, zero risk, so why would evolution reward them with a prize? They will not be rich, but they can continue to function in an otherwise unsustainable economic system of the today's debt based madness.

Before that, most millennials, X-gen, and the likes of us will stack up bitcoins not for everyday use by necessity, but for hardcore, sweet greedy, speculative "easy life, early retirement" life, IF we are right, i might add, but i have 0 doubts, this is math after all :-P


*I say mostly, because phenomenons evolve, and there is no absolute perfect "school of thought" in my mind.
** For the really hardcore people. this is an adequate summary of cortisol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortisol, TLDR; stress induce adrenaline production - "running from lion" - the body interprets this as a danger for life, and with adrenaline, cortisol is bound to be produced to counter balance it; decreases several key functions in response, like your immune system (IFN - interferon gamma globulin level reduced, which is kind of a natural microbe killer), by reducing B-cell response, reduced wound healing through http://www.psyneuen-journal.com/article/S0306-4530%2803%2900144-6/abstract, also messes with your glucose levels (omg am fat!). Read MFs!

[inca]

After ignoring all the troll clones there is a very interesting conversation going on here. Keep it up fella's!

[AZwarel]

After ignoring all the troll clones there is a very interesting conversation going on here. Keep it up fella's!

[Fakhoury]

After ignoring all the troll clones there is a very interesting conversation going on here. Keep it up fella's!

Believe it or not, this is what I just said to AZ over PM.

When you read a bullish convo., it makes your day

[Fakhoury]

You are most welcome my new dear friend

I extremely enjoyed how deep into economics and math you are as well as your way of thinking.

Btw, I said earlier this exact same sentence (That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death ).

What do you think about triple digit BTC value, way too much or ?

I am mostly* a follower of the Austrian economic thought, so whatever the digits are now, they are the digits right now. The market - the sum of all of the participants - is what matters. Since value is subjective, hence a mirage, it does not matter what i think, or people with real talents :-) think, if the other 99,9999% does not care, we can s*** up the coins to our...well it is digital, so we can not, but you get the picture :-D

While those who understand why Bitcoin is a paradigm shift in the social construct (hierarchical, pyramid like topography versus anarcho-capitalist, flat and voluntary - so to speak spontaneous order), the overwhelming majority prefers the "matrix of status quo" of today. Why?

1. Thinking is hard. It is, the brain can use up to 40% of calories (given that outside temperature is near body levels) taken, so it is an evolutionary instinct to act "non conscious",
2. Risk aversion /Failure aversion. It is just basic human nature, evolution taught us not to "rock the boat", for it is high risk/high reward, yet too much cortisol** (stress hormone),
3. Herd mentality: to be honest, most of the populace act as their long term female companion dictates, aka, peaceful civilizations tend to be show higher mammalian herd tendencies, like socialism - until it collapses, and rampant and uncontrolled fight began for status and power between males,
4. The need for a pastor; the herd will follow any leader who has been showing power in the past. See herd mentality, and historical figures inspiring unimaginable acts from "ordinary people".

The point is, IMHO, as ECB said before, the "marketing", human psyche has more to do with bitcoin's success than any technical detail. Do anyone has the illusion, that Mrs. Widow at the age 67, or Mr. Accountant in the cubicle knows about, or will EVER comprehend the blocksize debate? No, they will only adopt bitcoin, when they have so huge and obvious loss in comfort/utility/told by their gossip tabloid, in everyday financial interaction, that remaining in the old construct of hierarchical, top-down, command economy collapses. That is okay, they took zero effort, zero risk, so why would evolution reward them with a prize? They will not be rich, but they can continue to function in an otherwise unsustainable economic system of the today's debt based madness.

Before that, most millennials, X-gen, and the likes of us will stack up bitcoins not for everyday use by necessity, but for hardcore, sweet greedy, speculative "easy life, early retirement" life, IF we are right, i might add, but i have 0 doubts, this is math after all :-P


*I say mostly, because phenomenons evolve, and there is no absolute perfect "school of thought" in my mind.
** For the really hardcore people. this is an adequate summary of cortisol https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortisol, TLDR; stress induce adrenaline production - "running from lion" - the body interprets this as a danger for life, and with adrenaline, cortisol is bound to be produced to counter balance it; decreases several key functions in response, like your immune system (IFN - interferon gamma globulin level reduced, which is kind of a natural microbe killer), by reducing B-cell response, reduced wound healing through http://www.psyneuen-journal.com/article/S0306-4530%2803%2900144-6/abstract, also messes with your glucose levels (omg am fat!). Read MFs!

I see here you perfectly elaborted what our dear centeral bank said

All what you said, as usual, I agree upon but my mind is begging me to ask in order to get the complete picture.

1. Could you please elaborate more the last part starting with "IF" until "this is math after all".

2. I'm thinking about something else now, will it be that easy to reach $5K, $10K till $250K in terms of poltical intervention and policy makers, will goverments, banks etc. keep watching Bitcoin taking over easily ?

I'm convinced with what r0ach that central banks sooner or later will buy a lot of Bitcoins as Bank of Japan is doing.

Btw, today Japan surpassed US by being the 2nd largest Bitcoin market after China.

Won't Bitcoin get cracked, not a must it's encryption, I'm talking in general.

3. Forgot the price, lets say we are now in 2025 - 2030, describe Bitcoin the escosystem, assest, currency whatever.

[AZwarel]

You are most welcome my new dear friend

I extremely enjoyed how deep into economics and math you are as well as your way of thinking.

Btw, I said earlier this exact same sentence (That is why i will retire at the age of 35-40, and they will work till their death ).

What do you think about triple digit BTC value, way too much or ?

I see here you perfectly elaborted what our dear centeral bank said

All what you said, as usual, I agree upon but my mind is begging me to ask in order to get the complete picture.

1. Could you please elaborate more the last part starting with "IF" until "this is math after all".

2. I'm thinking about something else now, will it be that easy to reach $5K, $10K till $250K in terms of poltical intervention and policy makers, will goverments, banks etc. keep watching Bitcoin taking over easily ?

I'm convinced with what r0ach that central banks sooner or later will buy a lot of Bitcoins as Bank of Japan is doing.

Btw, today Japan surpassed US by being the 2nd largest Bitcoin market after China.

Won't Bitcoin get cracked, not a must it's encryption, I'm talking in general.

3. Forgot the price, lets say we are now in 2025 - 2030, describe Bitcoin the escosystem, assest, currency whatever.

Still, no "complete picture", i am just extrapolating from my own knowledge/experience. But, short "answers" (more like speculations):

1. While the invention, or, rather the realization of how to run a trustless recorded timestamp server through decentralized consensus through PoW aka blockchain already made it into the public, and proved to be the most resilient application run by more than 1 computer at the same time connected to the internet, "the Satoshi" only made a possibility, not a certainty, not a definitive. Alas, the genie is out of the bottle, so to speak. That, and Heisenberg (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle which, apparently seems to work in the macro world as well, see https://www.ted.com/talks/jim_al_khalili_how_quantum_biology_might_explain_life_s_biggest_questions), is why it is "IF", despite math. :-)

2. There is a great speech, i can't recall which one, from Andreas Antonopoulos, where he discusses this matter (find it on youtube, either Prague, or Zürich?). The leading sentence is: "i have seen no global governmental consensus on ANYTHING" (not even on climate change, despite it might kill us all, as he adds). Or, you can learn about what happened, when the politburo banned the holding and trading of USD in the Soviet Union in the 70/80s- hint, it became the no.1 bribing instrument for citizens:-)

3. That question alone would require, 600 pages, in a book (i am working on it :-D) ). After i have spent, like 2-3 nights, whisky, patience and curiosity - as many before me - that STEM knowledge is an exponential curve, and not since the 60's, but since BC. 500- alas. Hence, the probability to foresee anything tech related is bound to diminishing returns - an inverse exponential curve , means to predict the correct path to predict future improvements shrinks exponentially.

With this in my mind, if Bitcoin, the protocol is still up and running in just 5 years, say 2020-2021, it might already have so alien applications, like an additional layer, that none of us can think off right now, delivering such humongous utility to users, that would be laughed at today, but will worth enormous economic value per entry units (=btc). Just like it was unfathomable to say video conference for FREE, in 1992's internet. Bitcoin, the network is nothing more than internet, it is like permissionless, uncensorable packet transfer from A to B IP address , but this one is also a registering public ledger of packets going from A to B, so we can tie value, because everyone has to acknowledge that we "have" that value, by the mechanisms of the blockchain.

[JayJuanGee]

We are talking about $25K - $250K in the coming decade or so without taking into considerations non mathematical elements, am I right ?

This is theory and throwing figures around. What it truly requires is people. Alot of real people. Real people take alot of convincing and they usually don't do what you want them to.

I think that these kinds of discussions of market cap and which assets are comparable in terms of utility are good, whether we be talking about theory or throwing numbers around - because in the end, we cannot know for sure how it is going to play out, but throwing out the theories and numbers can help us to view possible areas and to conceptualize what is more possible or not... and as we go along, we will continue to have to tweak our view of bitcoin and it's future based on developments in the space, whether those developments expand or contract bitcoin's actual market share, usage and utility.    $25k to $250k seems like reasonable possibilities in the coming 5-10 years - even if there may be some forces that continue to attempt to manipulate bitcoin down and to break it, possibilities of $25k to $250k seem reasonable (though certainly not inevitable - and that is where we have to account for the various forces that fight bitcoin in various ways that continue to make efforts to keep bitcoin down, and the downward force could also be explained by some attempts at downward speculation, even though downward speculation is not a complete explanation of downward price pressures, either).

[USB-S]

[r0ach]

Doesn't that usually involve a human female?

I've heard of them.