... I would dare say that my "bubble model" is at least Copernican ... Maybe even a bit Newtonian...  Now you're getting ahead of yourself, doc. I have one additional comment on your model (aside from the fact that I don't buy the market events premise, as I said before... ). I'll write it up a bit later. Bless him, but he is no Isaac Newton. |
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Late afternoon EST action due again I wonder?
Just a hunch. Next hour or so if I am right...
Unless they leave early on a Friday ;-)
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 all in? 300 will come, Adam. |
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so Tim didnt dollar average his coins?
it is worse than I thought.
Hasn't sold his stash though - and did say it was 'the best deal anyone would get' Is that bad? yes it is. we have plenty of bagholders here already, another one saying "the best deal anyone would get" makes him a bull troll in my book. I guess he will hardly talk it down if he is indeed a 'bag holder'. But he has a right to hold and he is 'probably' happy to do so, especially as he has bought more since. |
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so Tim didnt dollar average his coins?
it is worse than I thought.
Hasn't sold his stash though - and did say it was 'the best deal anyone would get' Is that bad? No, he said it was " probably ... the best deal anyone will get," Billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper, winner of the past two auctions, has not submitted a bid. But he noted that the bitcoins on the auction block are "probably ... the best deal anyone will get," said Draper on Thursday in an email to Reuters.http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/05/us-bitcoin-auction-idUSKBN0M11WJ20150305I stand corrected, thank you - but my the essence of my point still stands. |
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so Tim didnt dollar average his coins?
it is worse than I thought.
Hasn't sold his stash though - and did say it was 'the best deal anyone would get' Is that bad? |
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Rumours are irrelevant (especially the China one) and 30% is only a rumour too - completely unsubstantiated.
However, pre-auction dumping looks over and the market looked reasonably stable around a 270 resistance, not sub-250 as feared by some.
Another factor is the likelihood that bidders really did pay over market price and this is probably known by enough people, including those who bid too low.
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290 looks like an easy target
It does - but in the last couple of days big moves have died off reasonably quickly at this time - end of trading hours in NYC and Europe is just for private traders now. We won't see it smashed down tonight I reckon. A little profit taking at most. Major dumping would need balls of steel after a green hourly candle like that. |
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Trolls awfully quiet, chaps.
Bullish.
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This didn't start on mainland China exchanges, but on Bitfinex.
15 min MACD was positive for a while, 1h MACD divergence turned green, someone pump bought 2k BTC.
Yeah - I was watching Finex. East Coast USA money kicked it off (hunch). It's not manipulation, I think the correct term is demand. |
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Boom!  |
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is this 30% above market thing legit?
should we be buying?
I don't think price is heading south - a lot of money was ready to buy and failed. If they know what was paid was above market - market looks awfully tempting afterwards. Let's see. If it goes up it will prove they did buy at a premium, other bidders will know and people talk - too many people will know what was paid. these "Rumours" smell completely made up, but that doesn't mean you're wrong, could very well be there was more losing bids this time around, who knows. market is moving... time to go all in and hodl for 2.5 years? Alwyas act with caution - but I am adding a little to the stash - and it's for cold storage  |
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INCOMING!
It's that 4.30 EST buy again - NYC leaves the office.... |
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I think we might already be seeing some action. |
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is this 30% above market thing legit?
should we be buying?
I don't think price is heading south - a lot of money was ready to buy and failed. If they know what was paid was above market - market looks awfully tempting afterwards. Let's see. If it goes up it will prove they did buy at a premium, other bidders will know and people talk - too many people will know what was paid. |
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is this 30% above market thing legit?
Rumour only. No-one on the record. Yet. |
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30% seems an incredible premium, I doubt it.
But over market price - I think that is likely. If I was Tim - I would want to average down.
Disclosure: I did exactly this when it went sub 200, and I do not regret it, for obvious reasons. You either get out and write it off, or you get in and make the investment make sense.
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A premium over market makes sense.
And with so many players in the auction - anything at or lower than market price is not probable.
Bullish indeed - they ain't gonna dump if they paid over market.
They aren't going to dump regardless. The bidding process is so long winded and backwards the only people bidding are doing it for large clean positions and for liquidity purposes. Agreed, but they won't want anyone else to get in under market, either - it would only destabilise the value their own (existing) positions if anyone else got a substantial discount on market price. |
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A premium over market makes sense.
And with so many players in the auction - anything at or lower than market price is not probable.
Bullish indeed - they ain't gonna dump if they paid over market.
EDIT: and they won't mind the market knowing it, will they? Self fulfilling good judgement; market will rise.
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