Hey molecular, der Screenshot entstammt aus dem Chart von Bitfinex. Der zweite von mir gepostete Chart ist identisch mit dem darüber. Habe nur etwas gezoomt.
Also klar, letztendlich bleibt die Wahl des Zeitintervalls vag. Es erscheint mir jedoch plausibel, bei der Suche nach globalen Trends größere Zeitabschnitte zu betrachten.
Welches Intervall hast du in deinem Chart gewählt?
Und ich verstehe nicht ganz, was du genau mit deiner Aussage meinst.
Ah, verflilxt. Ich hatte grad 'nen kleinen Aha-Effekt... Ich erklär mal was da schieflief in meinem Hirn: Aufhänger der Geschichte war dein 2ter chart. Der mit den weekly candles bitfinex. Da hast du die uptrend-linie drin, und zwar im Prinzip dieselbe die ich auch benutzt hatte und auch in meinem chart dargestellt ist. Ich wurde dann stutzig, da bei meiner Version die Linie klar durchbrochen war, bei Deiner aber nicht. Beide Linien waren jedoch beim $166 tief aufgehängt und durch 2-3 andere Tiefpunkte (bei mir am 10.2, 12.2 und 18.2) gezeichnet. Sollte also dieselbe Linie ergeben... tut's aber nicht. Meine erste Intuition war: diese blöden candles über lange Zeitspannen  Das hab ich dann wieder durchgestrichen, weil ich angefangen hab zu überlegen und zum Schluss kam, daß es dieselbe Linie ergeben müsste. Habe dann getippt, daß du vielleicht bitstamp oder einen anderen Markt genommen haben könntest. Nachdem du sagtest dein chart ist auch bitstamp hab ich mal genauer geguckt warum meine Annahme, daß wenn auf beiden charts die Linie durch die Tiefpunkte gezeichnet wird dieselbe Gerade rauskommen muss wohl nicht stimmt. Ein Minimum bleibt ja immer ein Minimum, auch wenn man über 1 Woche aggregiert. Jetzt ist mir's klar: der Tiefpunkt (Beispiel: das low bei $214 am 10.2.2015 9:00) bleibt natürlich bei wöchentlicher Aggregation beim selben Wert ($214). Allerdings ist der Zeitpunkt (X-Koordinate) jetzt quantisiert auf die Mitte der Woche welche am 9.2.2015 0:00 beginnt. Also 12.2.2015 12:00, mehr als 2 Tage später als 'in wirklichkeit'. Dadurch wird die Linie im weekly chart einiges flacher als im feiner aufgelösten chart (ich hatte übrigens 4-hour oder 6-hour benutzt, glaube ich). |
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 Die letzte Kerze ist die aktuelle. Sie endet heute Nacht (wöchentlich). Die untere Trendlinie verläuft hier bei ca. 228$. Im Laufe der Woche wurde sie bereits getestet und nicht unterschritten. Davon ausgehend, dass der Kurs innerhalb der nächsten 8 Stunden nicht unter 228$ fällt, erhalten wir für diese Woche eine saubere Bestätigung des Aufwärtstrends, welcher durch die Linie charakterisiert wird. Dazu sei gesagt, dass die Abwärtstrendlinie auch bereits eine Bestätigung erhalten hat (das letzte lokale Maximum). Es müssten demnach alle nötigen Kriterien für die Bestätigung von Trendlinien erfüllt worden sein. Die beiden Linien kreuzen sich in der Woche vom 02.03.15-08.03.15. Ich würde also die Entscheidung bezüglich einer (globalen) Trendumkehr noch etwas vertagen. Das mit den Kerzen is für mich so 'ne Sache... natürlich gucken viele drauf, aber die Zeitintervalle sind halt eigentlich arbiträr gewählt.EDIT: ich merk grad: hat mit Kerzen nix zu tun. Von welchem Marktplatz is der Screenshot, bennana? Ich guck eher so drauf:  Und da ist der schöne uptrend erstmal gebrochen. Natürlich: wenn's nur kurz ist, lass ich mit mir reden , aber dann sollten wir schon langsam wieder raufgehen jetzt. |
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Ist mit 'Förderung' mining gemeint? Falls ja: lol, viel Erfolg. Falls nein: wir brauchen keine Förderung, lasst uns einfach in Ruhe! |
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Yep. Das Volumen ist grad auch praktisch wieder nicht vorhanden.
Ja, der Kurs ist richtig festgefroren zwischen den beiden Linien... lange geht das nicht mehr. Ich krieg schon so ein Gähn-Gefühl zwischen den Ohren, wenn ich den Kurs angucke... ein untrügliches Zeichen, daß sich bald was tut. |
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gaubt ihr eigentlich ,dass es noch unter $100 gehen wird?  Ich nicht. Ich auch nicht. Sollte es trotzdem soweit kommen, würde ich sofort meine kleinen Bestände verdoppeln. Warten wir es ab  Sehe ich genauso. Sieht mir aktuell schon sehr nach Boden aus - aber falls es doch noch weiter runter geht, werd ich noch ein paar Coins mehr nachkaufen. Und da ihr mit dem Nachkauf-Plan nicht alleine seid, wird es wohl nicht passieren. Auch ich hab vor bei weiter sinkendem Kurs nochmals ordentlich zuzulangen. Habe bei €260 und bei €180 nachgekauft. Bei €100 wäre es spätestens wieder soweit (mache das etwas planlos nach Gefühl), befürchte aber so weit runter kommen wir nicht mehr. |
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gaubt ihr eigentlich ,dass es noch unter $100 gehen wird? Ich nicht. Ich auch nicht. Hab aber auch nicht geglaubt, daß es nochmal unter $300 geht. |
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And gold will collapse even more now that scientists have been able to produce gold by using bacteria. bitcoin is far more relevant and useful as a currency. Gold is still valuable but if the bacteria method of gold production is industrialized then gold prices will stabilize greatly...it won't be as volatile and shouldn't really be as costly.
Depends on the efficiency of the bacteria patent enforcer. Good thing we have crypto. Otherwise (with our human greed), we'd probably turn the whole planet into gold in the long run. |
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molecular:
can the Trezor ppl see our balances and tx's while the Trezor is logged into myTrezor.com?
yes, unfortunately. At least they're not using your xpub key to transfer addresses to watch, so they don't know your future keys (except the 5 or so per account they scan ahead). That's my biggest criticism with myTrezor and it's why I switched to electrum as soon as the development code had trezor working. It's not perfect with electrum, either, but better (I don't know exactly what, but they do some stuff to increase privacy towards server operators). I went to the hassle of running my own electrum server (public, of course, so I can hide in the masses when broadcasting transactions). Feel free to use it (electrum.0x0000.de), I'm not logging anything or looking at the traffic in any way. How could they overlook such an obvious privacy violation when designing the wallet? It should be a local client that broadcasts tx's out to the network. The broadcast isn't the only privacy problem inherent to the client/server thin wallet design, watching for incoming money another one. They didn't overlook it, they accepted it for lack of a good solution. I have no problem with running a full node with s local client to maintain privac. That should've been an option. Satoshilabs is not in the business of making wallet software. They just made myTrezor site as a preliminary solution until wallet devs implemented trezor support. I think maybe you want trezor support in bitcoin-qt (or bitcoin core or what it's called)? You could rather easily use "bitcoind + local electrum server + electrum" Also: maybe multibit might be a solution? Not sure how far the trezor support is, though. |
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molecular:
can the Trezor ppl see our balances and tx's while the Trezor is logged into myTrezor.com?
yes, unfortunately. At least they're not using your xpub key to transfer addresses to watch, so they don't know your future keys (except the 5 or so per account they scan ahead). That's my biggest criticism with myTrezor and it's why I switched to electrum as soon as the development code had trezor working. It's not perfect with electrum, either, but better (I don't know exactly what, but they do some stuff to increase privacy towards server operators). I went to the hassle of running my own electrum server (public, of course, so I can hide in the masses when broadcasting transactions). Feel free to use it (electrum.0x0000.de), I'm not logging anything or looking at the traffic in any way. How could they overlook such an obvious privacy violation when designing the wallet? It should be a local client that broadcasts tx's out to the network. The broadcast isn't the only privacy problem inherent to the client/server thin wallet design, watching for incoming money another one. They didn't overlook it, they accepted it for lack of a good solution. |
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Everyone that isn't on Bitcoin yet has an old man mind. That's a fact.
Adam Smith guesstimated that only one in a million understood inflation. Nowadays, maybe one in thousand understand fiat, bank money creation, central banking. Half the people understand that it is smart to own real value through being short fiat with leverage (which is another way of saying own a house with a mortgage and a small personal equity). Almost nobody understand why a house have value, most people believe it has something to do with the cost of building the house (the defunct labour value theory). Most people trust the central banks. Most people believe the money is well managed. It has nothing to do with age. I suspect some old people know about hyperinflation (but only in failed states, could never happen here). some very old people in germany know about hyperinflation quite a bit. well, actually I just looked it up. I guess there's not many left. Weimar hyperinflation was 1921-1924. |
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Try again in 2 years, after the halving
I tend to agree, we need to be patient... on the other hand: bitcoin is known for surprises |
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Did you guys see the Lenovo blow up today, this is on the order of Sony's rootkit fiasco.
yes, it's truly sickening. |
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molecular:
can the Trezor ppl see our balances and tx's while the Trezor is logged into myTrezor.com?
yes, unfortunately. At least they're not using your xpub key to transfer addresses to watch, so they don't know your future keys (except the 5 or so per account they scan ahead). you mean xpub key as it applies to an HD wallet (master public key)? what do you mean "except the 5 or so per account they scan ahead"? yes, exactly, the hd wallet master public key. instead they send indidvidual addresses for watching to the server (not 100% sure, but I think that's what slush told me some time ago). Since the wallet doesn't know which addresses you gave out, it has to watch a couple of addresses that come after the last one that has received money. Maybe myTrezor watches all addresses it has displayed to the user or something along those lines, I'm not sure. That's my biggest criticism with myTrezor and it's why I switched to electrum as soon as the development code had trezor working. It's not perfect with electrum, either, but better (I don't know exactly what, but they do some stuff to increase privacy towards server operators).
why would electrum be better in terms of privacy? I've been meaning to research this. I'll let you know when I've come around to it.
I went to the hassle of running my own electrum server (public, of course, so I can hide in the masses when broadcasting transactions). Feel free to use it (electrum.0x0000.de), I'm not logging anything or looking at the traffic in any way.
how does one use electrum with the Trezor? Use the electrum 2.0 beta, it has a trezor plugin. You will see the same wallet you see with myTrezor, both wallets can be used in parallel if you desire that. |
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molecular:
can the Trezor ppl see our balances and tx's while the Trezor is logged into myTrezor.com?
yes, unfortunately. At least they're not using your xpub key to transfer addresses to watch, so they don't know your future keys (except the 5 or so per account they scan ahead). That's my biggest criticism with myTrezor and it's why I switched to electrum as soon as the development code had trezor working. It's not perfect with electrum, either, but better (I don't know exactly what, but they do some stuff to increase privacy towards server operators). I went to the hassle of running my own electrum server (public, of course, so I can hide in the masses when broadcasting transactions). Feel free to use it (electrum.0x0000.de), I'm not logging anything or looking at the traffic in any way. |
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Such a conservative man.
We're on a growing exponencial line in terms of technology advancements.
If people who are it their 30/40 sometimes have difficulties coping with novelty, imagine someone born before computers existed. Their minds simply cannot imagine many of the things that await us.
I think that's true for everyone, not just old people. |
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So....theres a big chance that the world will starting using cryptocurrency instead of paper money?
Oh yea, thats what I called the future.
That's an absolute guarantee. What country wouldn't want a fully traceable and traceable currency they can use to totally control the masses while not having to print and distribute real paper money? Crypto money and especially the tracking abilities of the blockchain are a wet dream of any government, bank or corporation. So there is no doubt the planet will switch to crypto money it's just a question of how long it will take and which currency will be the global one. I think this is a trap for the government and a double-win for the people: 1.) the freedom of economic transaction (bitcoin delivers that, it's censorship-resistant) is important to protect against opressive government or other entities trying to control the flow of money (take the wikileaks blockade as a prominent example) 2.) the use of sound money (especially via the inelastic money supply) forces fiscal prudence on governments. Spending has to be financed by taxes. The use of sound money also has positive effects on the economy because it will greatly reduce misallocations of capital (bailouts and other capital mis-injections) and plundering of the unsuspecting population ("hidden inflation tax") for useless expenses and going into debt with the children and unborn accountable. That doesn't sound like a feasable strategy. Governments are corrupted and they have monopoly on force. It doesn't look like governments are listening to their people much or have the goal to act in the peoples interest, either. It looks more like they're trying to control the people. I think using crypto (not only -currency, but other applications like encryption) is a much more feasable and peaceful strategy. You don't end a system by attacking it, but by building and using better ones. |
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This was a pump and dump.
You guys are beating a dead horse.
Looking at the tape I can hardly see any pump or dump. |
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When the US Dollar will lose most its value in a short period of time, owning gold or bitcoin should be great.
I agree, and I would love to have gold at that time. But Bitcoin is much easier to use in such a situation. Of course Bitcoin is great and easier to move, store and trade than Gold but Gold is great too. It is the father of Bitcoin. Gold is deprecated compared to bitcoin. In fact everything is.  Gold is used in various industries and in jewellery, it is the best metal and is trust by many everywhere in the world. It is not in the chart. I like the chart otherwise. Bitcoin has value but it doesn't mean Gold doesn't. I dont trust gold unless the actual gold is sitting next to me. I don't even quite trust it when I own it physically. Who knows how much of it is out there. With crypto I know this. |
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So....theres a big chance that the world will starting using cryptocurrency instead of paper money?
Oh yea, thats what I called the future.
That's an absolute guarantee. What country wouldn't want a fully traceable and traceable currency they can use to totally control the masses while not having to print and distribute real paper money? Crypto money and especially the tracking abilities of the blockchain are a wet dream of any government, bank or corporation. So there is no doubt the planet will switch to crypto money it's just a question of how long it will take and which currency will be the global one. I think this is a trap for the government and a double-win for the people: 1.) the freedom of economic transaction (bitcoin delivers that, it's censorship-resistant) is important to protect against opressive government or other entities trying to control the flow of money (take the wikileaks blockade as a prominent example) 2.) the use of sound money (especially via the inelastic money supply) forces fiscal prudence on governments. Spending has to be financed by taxes. The use of sound money also has positive effects on the economy because it will greatly reduce misallocations of capital (bailouts and other capital mis-injections) and plundering of the unsuspecting population ("hidden inflation tax") |
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Do we ever expect BTC to be above gold again?
If yes, then when?
Don't know about we, but I expect BTC to tade above gold in 2016 (maybe even this year, but not very likely). |
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