Yeah...


Good luck with that retarded and destructive approach...


DUMB


 

EXACTLY!!!!!


I personally believe that vested status quo interests engage in a certain amount of "at a loss" dumping practices; however, at some point, their efforts no longer have an effect because they are no longer able to get their hands on a sufficient number of coins in order to negatively affect the price... and the upwards momentum becomes too great for their dumping to have a material effect.

I am not sure whether bitcoin has reached such a stage yet, in which vested interests are having difficulties acquiring coins.... but it sure is possible.

Are you saying that we are not getting to another ATH above $1,200 and we should shoot for more modest numbers, such as $585?

 Or are you saying something else, such as this is the real deal, this time?

There seems to be a lot of decent upwards BTC price pressures at the moment, and really I am gathering the whole dynamics, regarding to how the price is rising slowly and relatively on mediocre volume to be significantly bullish (and not manipulation).

 Surely, some bearwhales can come into this scene at any time to attempt to drive BTC prices down 10% or more, if they can get their hands on a sufficient number of coins for such attempt.  But in the end, the evidence of market performance seems to be adding up to bearwhales running out of coins and ongoing upwards price pressures, and in essence bearwhales may have to go into debt in order to continue to attempt to keep the price flat or even to attempt to push it down.

Hahahahahaha..   accordingly, maybe you are correct, Jimbo, that we are going to experience some sideways, but to me, there seems to be a bit too much tension in the air towards moving us up passed $600 sooner rather than later, which is also beginning to seem as inevitable... even though it hasn't happened, "yet."  

Also, since this upwards movement seems to be going better than anticipated, we may have enough legs to get into the upper $700s before a correction... and there may even be enough momentum to get us significantly into the $800s, and many of us recognize what that means........... BBBBBBBBAAAAAAAAAMMMMMMMM!!!!!!

So, we will see how it plays out.. nothing is ever certain, but currently, the whole situation seems to be coming along real nice.. almost text book nice... with all the baloney negative bitcoin propaganda and distractions towards some vapor coins such as ETH supporting the deadbitcoin theories, and considerably strong BTC fundamentals with ongoing developments including seg wit and the halvening of new supply.... oh my oh my....   by the time the news gets out that bitcoin is a buy, buy, buy, prices may well be in the $900s...

Peeeeee        Pare       yourselves...... folks....  

I cited Rptiela's thread for some of the framing of the ideas therein, not necessarily, for the various lunacies of Rptiela  and his going to Monero pump, etc.

Like, I mentioned also, there can still be some good ideas contained in a discussion - even though a person may not agree with everything contained therein, and I specifically referred to my own issue with over reliance on mathematical predictive models when there are a lot of human and political variables and even emotional actions that may alter quite a bit of the mathematical calculations.



In essence, you are asserting that the best strategy is HODL, and I am suggesting that guys need to consider their own strategy, which may be something slightly different from HODL.. which in essence, my recommendation boils down to buying on the way down and selling on the way up.  When employing such a trading strategy there is no real significant and meaningful attempt to predict the short-term price directions, but you likely need to moderate depending on short term ideas about trends and allocating the ratios of your holdings between BTC and fiat.

Yes, you have mentioned a variety of factors that may or may not cause BTC prices to shoot up or down greatly or cause stagnation of BTC prices.... and your trading strategies can make attempts at accounting for these kinds of anticipated unanticipated events.

Initially, for the first nearly two years that I was investing in BTC from November 2013 my only strategy was to buy and HODL and to continue to accumulate BTC on the way that BTC prices were continuing to go down during that time, and in essence, it was a practice of buying  BTC on the way down and selling on the way up, except the BTC market did not significantly go up between November 2013 and August 2015, and even during the June/July 2015 price spike to $317, I was not yet then prepared to begin to  sell any of my BTC.  Actually, throughout this period, whenever I used any BTC, I would immediately replace it within about 24 hours.

For me, I was only beginning to be able to sell any coins on the way up in about October 2015, after it was my conceptualization of my BTC holdings into three components and that I had sufficiently accumulate a sufficient quantity of BTC during 2015 at below $250 and accordingly, I was able to come up with a plan to divide all coins that I had acquired under $280 in order to justify to begin selling a very small fraction of those coins on the way up (which I began to start employing once BTC prices crossed above $250).

In order to conceptualize whether BTC trading is a good plan (and you seem to be focusing on overall profits and overall ability to accumulate coins).  When we trade, we are also reapportioning our risks and we are not only attempting to figure out how many coins we can accumulate at how low of a cost but making attempts to provide ourselves some protection from downside price spikes... and one very effective way to protect from downward price spikes is to have money in your btc portfolio to be able to buy coins when the price spikes downwards.

Initially, I began to sell only a small fraction of the coins that were within the category of those that I had acquired under $280, so for example, I would only authorize myself to sell within the profits of those coins and only up to about 50% of the profits of those coins, and those coins represented only about 10% of my total BTC holdings. 

So for example, if I had owned about 100 coins in total (this number is for explanatory purposes only), then I had only 10 coins in the below $280 category, so for every $1 the price went up, the value of those 10 BTC went up $10, and for every $10 BTC prices went up, my profits went up by $100.  Therefore, I ONLY authorized myself to sell up to $50 for every $10 raise in BTC prices. 

To make a long story less long, as BTC prices continued to go up, I was able to increase my authorizations up to the point in which I was able to trade the whole BTC portfolio.

Still the authorized trades of 100BTC would only be $50 for every $1 the BTC prices went up and $500 for every $10.


The accumulated money would be used to buy back BTC on price dips and to help to prepare my portfolio for potential larger price dips.

Surely it is true that some of these BTC trading planning matters I was working out on the cuff, and through experience I hve been gaining more and more knowledge regarding how to better prepare my BTC portfolio for various possible price directions.


I wasn't really sure about what kinds of proportionment of my BTC portfolio would be allowable or a good practice, and as you likely recall we had a price spike to $502 and then back down below $300 for a short period and then more or less stabalized between $360 and $460, if you can call that stable.  And, after being able to accumulate and rebuy, for a while I had begun to consider that maybe I should attempt to maintain an allocation of about 95% BTC and 5% fiat... but then as you may recall when prices went from $403 to $470 without any major correction, my BTC portfolio had dropped to about 92%, and then when we experienced about 3 corrections back down testing $435, my BTC portfolio was then about 98%BTC and 2% fiat, which seemed a bit unsafe.  Recently, I had been thinking that maybe I should attempt to keep my portfiolio between 85% and 95% BTC, and currently, I am toying with some thoughts regarding that, and currently I have about 91.5% BTC and 8.5% fiat. 

Since I started this BTC trading (and BTC portfolio risk management), from October 2015 to present, I have been able to increase my total BTC holdings by about 10% with all time high holding amounts that occurred in the mid $400s, and I have been able to stack fiat that feels vary comfortable psychologically in the even that BTC price spikes downwards or downwardly corrects.  Of course, if I have sold nearly 10% of my BTC, I do not make as much money when BTC prices spike upwards, but I don't really care because I feel more comfortable and there is no real need to get greedy.  Accordingly, the about 10% that I may hold in fiat gets put to work from time to time.  I can use it for arbitrage opportunities, and just to have a psychological safety net. 

Yes, I do consider various predictions about BTC price direction, short term and long term, and accordingly, I can adjust my 90/10 apportionment to reflect my views, maybe buy a bit more or sell a bit more and to attempt to accomplish all of this with a degree of moderation... which I believe is better for me (and possibly other people too) than employing a 100% BTC / 0% Fiat allocation within your BTC authorized funds, as what you seem to be advocating.

Oh... thanks for providing that.  It is nice to hear real individual perspectives from time to time.  Of course, we do not need to agree or even share the same view, exactly, but there still may be some aspects of our history that we have in common.

Regarding your last point about trading... especially, if we may experience some kind of exponential growth period or two, I believe that there are ways to structure such trading, and really investors should consider approaches beyond the buy and HODL approach.

Certainly, I am not going to advise anyone or to suggest that anyone attempt to do anything that is outside of his/her comfort zone.


Even though I don't agree with the extensively mathematical approach of Rptiela, nonetheless, I think that he provides a good start for conceptualizing going beyond a buy and HODL approach.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

More or less the concept is that from time to time investors in BTC need to have a plan for taking some profits off the table from time to time.

In the end, probably, you are correct with a suggestion that either reinvesting or any kind of trading has too many screw up potentials, and so just removing some profits, from time to time, could be an intermediate compromise approach, for some folks.
 

O.k. thanks for that explanation..

Hey DaRude.  What's an overview of your personal bitcoin related story?    Did you start buying bitcoins around the time of your registration in March 2013?  What kind of view did you hold?  Did your thinking evolve over the past few years?  Did you own any bitcoin's during either or both of the 2013 price surges?

O.k.  I will bite.  What is "corner in"?

Is that another way of saying manipulation?   Or is that a way of saying inability to get passed resistance?

We already realize that sometimes consolidation involves an attempt at a kind of holding pattern until such point that it cannot be held in the consolidation range.  That's no kind of new phenomenon.

Yes, I attempted to provide an off the cuff substantive response in order to attempt to make your trolling bullshit relevant to considerations that folks may be undertaking, when they look at bitcoin versus ETH today... and not looking at short term history.  You completely avoided addressing the issue because it seems that even you don't believe the bullshit that you are spouting out... and you are actually unwilling or unable to back up your words with any kind of potentially meaningful specifics.    

Should any one be surprised?    



NOT  

I believe that you are describing an accurate trading risk in which people can lose a lot of money and that assessment especially applies with folks who subscribe to a kind of "balls to the walls" or even a leveraging philosophy of trading... which are like forms of gambling.

You gotta have some pretty advanced techniques if you are going to invest with these methods and to be profitable in the long run because manipulation and repeated playing is going to take a way the luck factor.


I think that there are a lot of ways to devise trading strategies that play out differently in the long run, and some of those strategies will be statistically and probably losers and some will be winners. 


With an apparently likely appreciating asset, such as bitcoin, there are likely a large number of trading strategies that can be profitable without either using employing a balls to the walls ideology or employing leveraging... or alternatively HODL strategies that people also like to employ, which the HODL strategy is likely much better than balls to the walls trading strategies.

You are calling this way too soon.


We have a little bit of price stagnation for a couple of days and you are calling that "resistance?"

if you had never noticed, BTC price action is frequently with periods of high activity and lulls for a couple of days or more.... there will be movements and corrections... and really we remain on an upward trajectory, for the moment, even though currently, we are experiencing a kind of lull.. and all of this on relatively mediocre trade volume. 

Furthermore, sometimes on the weekend there will be a lull in BTC trading action for 1 or 2 days, and I am not sure if this lull is on purpose, but it does make sense to potentially preserve some of your battle capital (fiat in your trading account) until towards the end of the weekend rather than attempting to blow it all early in the weekend.  At the end of the weekend, you have a pretty decent sense of your own quantity of fiat and you have a pretty decent sense that quite a few others will be able to come in with weekday reinforcements of additional fiat.

So essentially, we are in a bit of a wait and see period regarding the price direction and regarding whether there is going to be significant resistance at $600.  At the moment, I am not recognizing $600 resistance as being considerable.. but yeah we could be in for some major surprises if some whales are holding hidden BTC and want to risk selling at this price. 

Based on recent BTC price performance and the level of trade volume (seems fairly mediocre), which to me means that this price trend could carry fairly easily into the upper $600s without a lot of effort, and may even carry into the upper $700s before any kind of meaningful battle may begin....

I would be considerably surprised if we were to travel passed $800 on this run without some kind of significant price battle (and correction), and we all know what is fairly likely to happen once we get significantly into the $800s..... (FOMO, new ATH... blah blah blah) so I am fairly certain that bears,  financial shills and even some governmental entities would want to put up a decent attempt at resisting to prevent BTC prices from getting that high... although some of them may be so fucking distracted by ETH and "blockchain" bullshit that they do not recognize the actual power of the real BTC infrastructure that has been created.. got a lot of developers and investors to thank for that.. in spite of the previous XT/Classical sabotage efforts...

After several days of synchronized exchange price movement, I see that we are again getting a bit of exchange price  variation  1 or 2 % may be o.k... , but I think that 3% or more variance causes some skepticism from other exchanges.. and none of the other exchanges wants to attempt to follow an exchange leading by 3% or more (and a couple weeks ago, Chinese exchanges had more than a 10% premium over various "western" exchanges), and then if they follow a price premium exchange they run a decent risk of getting dumped upon because they are following something that is not really pushed with support from within their exchange rather than having some kind of more sustainable pump.

O.k.  Assmaster... at this price point, if you are trying to figure out where to put your life savings of $50,000, and your three investment options are dollars, bitcoin and ethereum.  If your timeline is 5 years and then you will gain access to your investment, how you going to apportion that?  

I would probably put 95% in bitcoin 4% in ethereum and 1% in dollars, and that is being generous to those other investments.  I can see that others may have other points of view, but it would seem quite foolish to put anything less than 50% of your holdings in bitcoin..
 

Yeah... sure...

Each of us needs to find an allocation comfort zone that works for his/her situation.  I am making a suggestions regarding means not to treat the investment as a gamble, but also to protect value for downside.  Also, I am not necessarily talking about your specific situation nor attempting to give advice because those are your decisions to make for yourself.

I agree that your framing of your portfolio would likely be different from someone else if your average cost per BTC is really low or close to zero as compared with someone who is either in the red or barely in the black.  

My personal portfolio is anywhere between 22% to 28% in profits depending on how to calculate the various holdings, as compared with the large majority of my time with bitcoin in which my holdings were largely in the red.  

Also, possibly age can also make a difference or if a persona is merely reinvesting profits as compared with attempts to continue to bring down his/her costs per BTC and/or to accumulate more BTC.

Thanks for reiterating that point. 

 I believe that I did attempt to account for the fact that in the past couple of years there has been a continued and ongoing increase in the variety of vehicles in which folks can get fiat onto exchanges and/or other direct purchase vehicles like your mentioning of Coinbase.. and of course there are a lot of others that were not there in 2013, for example.

Nonetheless, I will mostly stand by my point in the assertion that BTC remains heads and shoulders more versatile in quickness to move and low cost to move - in spite of improvements in moving fiat.

Can you imagine moving $1 million dollars or more for fairly small fees.... Well, if I had 2,000 BTC or more, I could move that onto any exchange in which I hold an account in a matter of less than an hour in many cases.. and those funds would be available to me to play around with the BTC prices on that exchange... or just to attempt to get out of BTC really quickly, in the event that I was feeling jitters regarding information that I have about a potential upcoming downward price correction.

So, my point is not necessarily regarding a large amount of openings into getting into BTC through fiat channels, but instead that the considerable disparity in BTC movement abilities is likely much more bearish than it is bullish or even neutral in respect to BTC's ongoing price performance.

Frequently, it is quite astonishing regarding how some of these supposed knowledgeable bitcoin writers can come up with such illogical nonsense.

CCMF!!!

Frequently, it is a better practice to hold a small percentage of your total holdings in fiat.

While my BTC portfolio was in the red, I remained considerably hesitant to hold very high of a percentage in fiat.  I suppose that was largely because I was predicting and anticipating upward's price movement, and plus that seemed to be the more prudent practice.  Accordingly in about the past several months, I was mostly aspiring towards keeping my portfolio about 95% BTC and 5% fiat.

With price movements, my allocation tended to vary, and when BTC prices went up from $403 to $470 with barely any corrections, my allocation went from approximately 96% to about 92% BTC.  Thereafter, when the price corrected back down to about $435 on three occasions, I kind of ended up over doing the rebuying of BTC and my portfolio went to about 98% BTC  / 2% fiat.

Currently, because of a lot of the upwards price movement and some of the recent small corrections, I am a little bit unclear about my exact allocations, but I would estimate it to be around 93% BTC and 7% fiat.  In about the past week, I have been considering ways to attempt to reallocate over time in such a way that at least over the possible upcoming BTC price fluctuations, my BTC portfolio will largely remain between 85% and 95% - with a kind of target of 90%.   I think that I could probably manage keeping such  an allocation at least while BTC prices are anywhere between about $400 and $2,200.  If BTC prices go outside of that range any time in the near future, I will likely need to reconsider my thoughts about my allocation. 

Of course, each person is going to come to their own conclusions regarding how to allocate in accordance with their personal circumstances and view of the future BTC price direction (whether long-term or short-term).

I do consider this assertion regarding fewer and fewer coins on the exchanges to be a significant point.

And, I am not sure about how such a fact were to play out, if it were true.

Yeah, one scenario is as described, fewer coins available on the exchanges causes the price to go up because there is an insufficient number of coins on the exchanges.

Actually, as I think through the scenario, this claim of not enough coins on the exchanges merely boils down to fewer people wanting to sell their coins because they are expecting them to appreciate in value in the very near term future.

The fact of the matter remains that bitcoins are very easy to transfer onto the exchanges and to transfer onto exchanges quickly, and the only question remains whether any person potentially willing to sell coins already has an account on such an exchange.

On the contrary, the more difficult logistics involves fiat, and even though there are more and more ways to buy bitcoins, there are still considerable problems in moving fiat onto exchanges in any kind of rapid manner... so in the end, I still conclude logically it makes more sense that the disparate abilities to rapidly move fiat as compared with bitcoins causes more ability for rapid downward price action, rather than rapid upward price action (mostly upward price action has to have some premeditation coupled with the fact that coin HODLers are less and less inclined to sell under current market conditions)

O.k.  

If you think it is relevant, then show the list.

Pursuit of such a topic seems to be a bit outdated, and if the statement and the signed supporters is not current, then why would we believe, necessarily that they still hold such a position. The other thing is that I really have neither seen evidence establishing that bitcoin is in some kind of crisis that actually needs a blocksize increase, so the issue still remains that even if there are still a few "prominent persons" on the supposed list, what are they arguing for exactly? Some kind of variation of XT or classic?





Oh?  seems like I may have posted before seeing this response, and your response seems to  have adequately addressed this claim from Adam.

It is not necessarily wise to go in all at once, but there is a lot of bullish momentum and upward price pressure at the moment, and it surely could be the case that within a week or so you will be more than 10% in the green.