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241  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 08, 2020, 02:51:32 PM
Armstrong, who practically never admits he is wrong on anything, has a nice advice for us:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/the-pursuit-of-knowledge/



 Cheesy Grin

The most disgusting post I have seen for a while.

He is ambiguous as ever:

He can see when his is wrong with his predictions. Then he switches sides and claims he has never been wrong. Huh Huh Huh



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
242  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 07, 2020, 09:16:55 AM

DISINFORMATION: FAKE EVERYTHING


Climate Change & Swiss Alps & Glacier Analysis

Quote
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, the data used by the climate change movement only dates back to 1850. Here in Switzerland, they state that the Alps Glacier peaked with Tambora in 1815 and has been retreating ever since. If the last Little Ice Age ended in 1850, the climate should have been warming naturally from that period. It is indeed getting colder with each year since 2015 as you have warned. It seems as though independently they confirm your forecast

First, the reader email is fake as usual, see The Fan Email Confidence Trick.

Second, the claim of the reader email is wrong. However, and this is important, Martin Armstrong does not deny nor does he confirm the message!

Martin Armstrong did NOT forecast the recent cooling. He was actually surprised by it.

See The Myth of the Martin Armstrong Global Cooling Prediction


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
243  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 06, 2020, 02:09:37 PM
Please try to understand the following:

The forecast array has 12 columns. For the sake of argument, if each column had a turning point, what would the predictive value of it?

Zero.

If on the other hand, a forecast array had only a single turning point in it, then that would be something. But it would still be of a low value because it can be interpreted as both a low or a high.

The fact is that forecast arrays typically have more than one turning point, in fact many turning points, so the predictive value is low due to the resulting ambiguity.


I totally agree with you, from what I've had explained thus far (both at a WEC and from other supposed gurus on the subject) of MA's array rules and how to use them those arrays don't have any value as is IMHO. Everyone says only the reversals are for trading (even more useless IMHO). What I am saying is that if you disregard all that and just look at the long-term row there may be some accuracy to whatever he's using to create it. I've done alot of empirical testing on it against real market data and there appears to be some weak correlation but that's all I can postulate at this point. Could it all be just circumstance, sure but the reverse could be true as well. It's not after the fact because that array was around well before being used so we can at least rule that out.

Do we have any idea how he actually creates the arrays?

The Case for Cycles by Edward R Dewey

Then this bullshit:

Trading Cycle

Quote
Composite: The Composite model is the aggregate of all of the computer models, which provides a good perspective of important dates ahead. Each separate model from empirical to volatility is taken as a sum and reflected in this model.

Note that you are interpreting a signal that contains this Trading Cycle bullshit "model".

I wish I could see the code. If that code will ever be made public, that will certainly be the end of Socrates.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
244  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 06, 2020, 09:09:47 AM
HYPERVENTILATION ABOUT REPO-CRISIS NON-EVENT



Why the Repo Report Must Remain Private

Quote
I am asking everyone to please refrain from telling the world what is really taking place. Only the core people involved in high-level finance understand the risks and can see what is unfolding.
Translation:
You haven't bought the report? After you buy it, you will be smarter than everybody else on the planet. You don't know what is unfolding? Buy, buy, buy!

Quote
It is just that I am the only one who can speak right now. There are even central banks that are still grasping to comprehend this crisis. It is best to keep this private at this time. Otherwise, when the crisis hits, the government will blame me and you because they cannot admit they have created this nightmare.
Translation:
After you buy, you know this is a storm in the teacup. Please don't tell anybody that nobody cares about us.

Quote
We have been helping institutions to prepare in hopes of mitigating the serious implications which can take down many. We have to work on this quietly. So please do not even discuss this in social media. We must let it unfold FIRST, or run the risk of being blamed for creating a panic. It is not worth the risk. Just look after yourself right now. This is coming and nobody can stop it. So do not stand in the way as a target for they will desperately need scapegoats.
Translation:
I hope my sheep remember that I said they blamed me for the previous panics ...
After you buy, you are a member of the inner circle of geniuses. You are so important. Nobody else is.

Shit, nobody bought the report. I should have written the report before the Repo Crisis hit. Now it is already over and everybody is talking about Iran - I don't have a report to sell for that. I hope this will fix it ...



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
245  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 06, 2020, 06:36:52 AM
...
I have no idea what you mean about with extremes/highs/lows, post up a drawing like I did so we know what you're talking about...

Please try to understand the following:

The forecast array has 12 columns. For the sake of argument, if each column had a turning point, what would the predictive value of it?

Zero.

If on the other hand, a forecast array had only a single turning point in it, then that would be something. But it would still be of a low value because it can be interpreted as both a low or a high.

The fact is that forecast arrays typically have more than one turning point, in fact many turning points, so the predictive value is low due to the resulting ambiguity.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
246  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 06, 2020, 03:27:10 AM
...
I did a ton of testing on Socrates when it came out and all of it was basically junk but for some reason the arrays on his private system were significantly different and appeared to have some accuracy to them (I don't know why)...

Because he posts cherry-picked arrays that match in hindsight.

I am not going to waste any time with forecast arrays other than taking his forecasts that he made based on them and then went wrong. As many have said, any broken clock is right twice a day, and the other thing is that extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. So far you don't have any evidence - and you never will because the sample size is just too small.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
247  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 06, 2020, 01:53:34 AM
I posted this way back on page 319 and tried to use one of MA's arrays to predict a change in the GBPUSD pair as a way to see if there was anything worthwhile. I don't think it's conclusive by any means, but to me there appears to be more than just a coincidence that it did in fact show something (note the white lines I drew in using the info on the array) in both major direction changes on the currency. The presumption now from the array is that it will continue down at least until the end of the time frame shown. Now again this was just my interpretation not MA at all (personally I don't think he even knows how to read his own stuff). Anyway I thought I would share since it appears there might be something worth pursuing at least from a cycle perspective.






I have to laugh. Why?

Look at these arrays. There are 12 columns in every array, right?

In this one, it has 6 extremes to pick from, right? 3 highs and 3 lows. 6 out of 12 that is 50%. Please note that in Armstrong speak, there is no difference between high and low, right?

So we have a probability of roughly 50% already that any attempt to fit any curve to this in the way that our Charlatan in Chief advises us to do, will actually be successful. Then you have the variation that these arrays are actually dynamic, so the highs and lows are not fixed while time moves on.

What does this mean? It means that for a curve fitting exercise (in hindsight) you can choose perhaps out of 4 different arrays the one that suits you best. At the end of the day, your success will always be 100%.

Now you think: hey, I have fitted the past with a great deal of cherry-picking, and therefore, the future will cooperate and follow the path of the array into the future? That is pure bullshit. Many people have tried this before. It never worked.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
248  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 04, 2020, 12:41:20 AM
Traxo, there is a problem. You desperately trying to spin that I believe in omniscient Socrates, yet I never claim such thing. Furthermore, I even stay away to comment on it, as I don't have much experience with it.
What is your problem with MA, idk, and I don't care. If it makes you happy to spew bs and hatred on MA, it's your choice. I'll go after the knowledge and understanding, which MA is willing to share.

We do only facts here not "bs" (BULLSHIT) as you say.

What you call "knowledge" may not belong to Martin Armstrong. It is content aggregation, plagiarism and pure scientific fraud.

Proof:

The Myth of the Martin Armstrong Global Cooling Prediction.

It may not be what you are looking at. But Global Cooling is currently one of his biggest if not the biggest current campaign, and we do not need to debunk all of his campaigns past and present to make a case. It is the way that Martin Armstrong deals with information which is the same across the board.

You call this knowledge. Quite naiive. We call this fraud.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.
249  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 03, 2020, 01:29:20 PM
The System


I think that at least after viewing Traxo's latest comments, people here are starting to understand.

With that I mean that the discussion has matured from people trying to find ways to make the Socrates system work for them (which failed), to proving how Martin Armstrong fraudulently misrepresents the performance of his wider system, not limited to Socrates, to be always right, to the point where we show that he even has designed features into the Socrates system that generate misleading information to that end. The latter I call "computerized fraud". See Revision Signals.

His staff (Gumbi as an example) obviously have a script that they follow to rectify any case of failure with the outcome that the user made a mistake and the system was right, concluding that the user would have experienced success without making that mistake.

Martin Armstrong has spent decades to refine his techniques of multi-layered deception and fraud, the System.

We are trying to keep our approach clean, focusing on the aspect of proving the above without any doubt with a set of case studies or examples, building a reference library based on them.

In that context, it is useful to show that Martin Armstrong has multiple ways of forecasting that are self-fulfilling, or self-actualizing as can be seen in A Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast.

He has a way of indirectly claiming ownership of third party ideas and forecasts by letting "others" give him credit while not denying their statements. See The Fan Email Confidence Trick. This results in scientific fraud.

With these techniques and others, combined, Martin Armstrong has developed a fraud system where every single component is small enough to be almost undetectable by the untrained eye. But the combined set, the whole is perfect. It lets him fool everybody, all the time.

Almost.
 

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
250  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 02, 2020, 11:07:20 PM
We are not claiming here that forecasts must be perfect. This is effectively what you are saying, right?

No. Wrong again.


In fact, we are accusing him of fraud.


No you're not. You are trying to defend a position. If you were accusing him of fraud you would actually do that - accuse him personally and professionally of fraud and take legal action. Do it formally. Confront him with a legal filing or public article in the newspaper. Why not do that? Because you know he'd eat you alive. You are not credible.

Take him to court. Here is how the proceedings would go:

Judge: You are accusing M.A. of fraud.
You: Yes your honor
Judge: Did your read the terms and conditions on the site?
You: Yes your honor
Judge: Case dismissed. Pay M.A.'s atty fees for filing a frivolous lawsuit.





You are making assumptions again. Since when do some terms and conditions on some web site apply to the universe?

If you were correct, then all I would need to commit the perfect crime are some terms and conditions on a web site, and any case against me would be dismissed as you just suggested.

Because I have terms and conditions which give me the Get Out of Jail Free card?

Not worth even discussing.

In case you have missed it, what counts here is that people who are looking for information are getting the tools to evaluate Martin Armstrong's products and services.

And many have expressed their gratitude for the information available here.

I don't really care much about you if you have a different agenda such as defending Martin Armstrong.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

251  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 02, 2020, 10:17:06 PM
The Armstrong bashers here seem to think Armstrong has to base all of his forecasts on facts that he alone develops. He is a student of history and uses history as his guide. It's the same way anyone learns - they listen, read and take in information from people that were there before them.

I will bet you all of the bashers here read his blog regularly and gain good information and have profited from it. You may have the time to do god knows how many hours of research to come up with similar resources and facts - but would you know where to look or reach a similar conclusion without reviewing his writings or forecasts - He was predicting what is happening now - fairly accurately - 30 years ago. He wrote the Greatest Bull Market in History probably before some here were born.

He and Socrates are not perfect. No one can be. But bashing someone who clearly knows one hell of a lot more that you do - and has the work history, following, and money to prove it - makes you look jealous and petty. If you think you know more than he does - start your own investment firm/ai company and convince sovereign wealth funds and billionaires to put their money in your care. Good luck with that...





BULLSHIT! You are getting confused.

We are not claiming here that forecasts must be perfect. This is effectively what you are saying, right?

What the "Armstrong bashers" as you call them are doing here is quite clear:

Look at this:

Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018 and Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015.

We are accusing Armstrong of claiming in hindsight that his forecasts were correct where in fact they are wrong.

In fact, we are accusing him of fraud.

In that way, sorry, you are not better than Armstrong himself - you cannot even get the facts right.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog




252  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 02, 2020, 09:27:22 PM
...
Notice how none of the above requires consuming MA's content or acting upon potentially flawed / bogus ECM "forecasts"...

I agree.

We can prove that Martin Armstrong often fits his model in hindsight to some common sense discovery. He then later fraudulently claims that his model predicted what others have concluded after their research.

We have a good example with The Myth of the Martin Armstrong Global Cooling Prediction.

Even before global cooling was on the agenda, he disagreed with the anthropogenic global warming. At that time he did not have a global cooling forecast.

So yes, we do not need the ECM and Socrates for making sound trading decisions.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
253  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 02, 2020, 08:34:03 AM
Thank you for quick replies to my first post here, it's great you guys are so quick! Btw happy new year to you all! Wink

I made myself not clear. My bad, sorry folks.

I just wanna know, what is your opinion on these claims:

-Euro is gonna collapse, European Union will fall
-Dollar is gonna go up a lot
-Dow Jones will keep going up to 35000 points, because with negative interest rates in Europe that's where the money will go
-Despite the strong dollar, Gold will go up significantly because of people won't trust the governments anymore.
-Copper will go up because of electric vehicles and demand in China.
-Emerging markets are gonna pop up because of strong dollar, they won't be able to pay the debt denominat

So in other words, I don't care when this shit is gonna happen according to Armstrong,
I feel like some of these claims will happen because of the nature of the things in the markets and I wanna know how you guys feel about this.

Can you tell me which of these claims make sense to you?

I perfectly understand now. Funny how this misunderstanding has prompted me to make new cases that Armstrong predictions were not predictions after all.

Honestly, your question is not the right question for this forum. Nevertheless, even if I wanted to, I could not answer because I think it is almost impossible to predict the future in the areas you are asking. Take for example copper. The price of copper depends not only on supply vs demand, but also on inflation / USD currency, two additional values already. Much bigger factors than electric vehicles and China. Then there is a development to use aluminium as a replacement conductor in vehicles. How on earth can we predict this stuff? Then suddenly China perhaps starts hoarding copper as it did before. Not even the best analysts can predict the future. Have seen too many predictions go wrong. No way I would want to get into the Charlatan business Wink



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
254  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 02, 2020, 04:58:14 AM
Any one can help to post Martin Armstrong private blog on 1 Jan 2020 .the gold close for 2019 .I suppose this will be important signal for gold price target in 2020 .thks .
.pls discussed future blog as Martin had improve his signal over the years .

What a joke.

How can you tell that he has improved his gold forecasting if you don't have access to his signals?

If you REALLY believe in this as you say, then why do you not buy the subscription? You get the blog info for $15 a month. Your post is completely brain dead, complete nonsense.


Nevertheless, it is VERY important to archive his private blog posts. I don't know why people are not doing it. When I was a member, I saved every single private blog entry to my hard drive and I can search them for words. Why still do it? To show that the forecasts are wrong and post the proof here. This really helps people make the right decision. Which is to not be exploited any more by Martin Armstrong.

Socrates can only forecast if the price goes up or down in a straight line indefinitely. One reversal elected after the other. Any market turns, good luck to everyone. Like here when the market turned: Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018 and Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015.


Why are people who have read this blog for some time still looking for answers here? 90% of people who have posted here know one thing: Waste of time. Socrates and other Armstrong services = total bullshit, scam.

As footlong24seven put it:

...Socrates is the Theranos of financial AI....


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
255  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: January 01, 2020, 06:11:13 PM
Hello everyone and thank you for this discussion. I was about to pay for Socrates and then I found this website Undecided

I am more concerned about Armstrong's long term predictions, let's go over them:


-Euro is gonna collapse, European Union will fall
-Dollar is gonna go up a lot
-Dow Jones will keep going up to 35000 points, because with negative interest rates in Europe that's where the money will go
-Despite the strong dollar, Gold will go up significantly because of people won't trust the governments anymore.
-Copper will go up because of electric vehicles and demand in China.
-Emerging markets are gonna pop up because of strong dollar, they won't be able to pay the debt denominated in dollars.
-Thanks to colding, commodities like corn will go up because of bad harvest (it already happened in 2019)

How do you feel about these claims?

In any case, before you are taking the leap of faith to buy a Socrates subscription based on the success of some prediction like corn going up because of global cooling which has not been predicted by his models but someone else's model, I would suggest you judge Socrates on its own merits, such as track records like Monthly Reversal Failures December 2018 and Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015.


Regarding the claims you are listing, let me address one as an example:

The emerging markets meltdown prediction.

Before I start, it is useful to know the fact that Martin Armstrong rarely predicts anything in a verifiable way.

He often systematically creates conditions around his statements that render them worthless. See

A Self-fulfilling Financial Forecast

However, in case of the emerging markets, he predicted a meltdown as early as 2016 with a target date of 2018. Obviously it did not happen. No emerging markets meltdown.


Here are excerpts from some of his publications:

Quote
Private blog
Gold and the March High
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
...
The concerns are pensions and Europe not to mention emerging markets where the example of Brazil as such a success story is turning into a nightmare that may result in the impeachment of its head of state. The collapse in emerging markets will significantly hurt pensions who bought dollar denominated debt to get some return when domestic rates when to effectively zero.
...


Quote
Video 2016-06-12
December Gold Update
https://vimeo.com/194098838
...
I have been saying constantly here, is that the only way that's going to happen is for an extremely strong Dollar. It's the higher Dollar that will cause the default in the emerging markets, it's the higher Dollar that will cause basically Europe to start to really disintegrate because all capital will be attracted here. The Federal Reserve will most likely raise interest rates trying to stop the stock market from rising to be criticized for this and the press is always on top of Donald Trump constantly. So we probably call this, oh, he is making a rally to make himself rich and all his buddies. It has nothing to do with that, this is a global world capital flow situation, and we are looking at effectively the drop of the world monetary system which can come into play as early as 2018, we may end up with the Dollar not being the reserve currency by 2020.
...

Quote
Fractal Nature of Trading
Posted Nov 25, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
...
I have been warning that we face a major dollar rally. Only such a rally will break the back of the world economy. A lower dollar will bailout the Emerging Markets where a high dollar will create sovereign defaults around the globe.
...

Quote
Private Blog

Gold in the Aftermath of French Election
By: Marty Armstrong
Tuesday, May 9, 2017
...
Keep in mind that we still face the potential of a major dollar rally and can blow the doors off of emerging market debt.
...


Quote
Private Blog

Canadian Dollar Update
By: Marty Armstrong
Wednesday, July 12, 2017
...

The Monetary Crisis appears to start in 2018 and we will need to wait for the German elections in September before this Year From Political Hell concludes. Only then will we see the surge into the greenback and that will set the stage for extreme economic pressure upon everyone, including Trump. A strong dollar will defeat Trump's idea of creating jobs. It will also push emerging markets over the edge.
...

Quote
Private Blog

The Markets for the Week of 10/15/2018
By: Marty Armstrong
Monday, October 15, 2018
...
The other economic areas, especially emerging markets, are coming under pressure and remain hopeless insofar as reversing the future. They took advantage of low interest rates to sell debt to particularly pensions and they denominated that debt in dollars to make the sales. So as the interest rates rise and the dollar, Emerging Markets are simply tottering on the edge of a cliff with no hope of avoiding the fall.
...

Quote
Market Talk- October 22, 2018
...
The rush for US funding at year end is likely to be extreme. Emerging markets are in meltdown yet no-one wants to admit it.
...

If you had shorted emerging markets at this point according to the above definite statement, this would have been a disaster trade.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
256  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 31, 2019, 06:33:57 PM
... It should also be noted that Mr Armstrong did not graduate in Economics from University & thus is not technically an Economist so surely the team at AE would be even more keen to prove their abilities at predicting the future by going over the number of correct/incorrect calls from the previous WEC?

This is my sticking point with Armstrong & the answer is clearly one of two things: a) They have the worst PR department in the history of any business or b) He is a indeed a fake.....

If this is taken as a Binary question then the answer must be b). Here is the proof:

Martin Armstrong has not perfected the ability to improve the quality of his products and services.

He has perfected his processes of fraudulently misrepresenting the quality and performance of his products and services in hindsight by manufacturing fake user feedback, and by altering the results of an ambiguous system in hindsight up to the point where they change its rules.

This can be be seen in action in this piece of incontrovertible evidence where a clear failure becomes a success.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
257  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 31, 2019, 10:17:46 AM
This is my first post here, I am still trying to make Socrates work after 4 years & thus I am not being negative but these are valid points I wish MA would address


I have attended a number of WEC's since 2015 & am happy to give my impartial view on MA's calls so far:

Gold will go below $1,000 - so far wrong
EURO report delivered during a conference in Germany - so far incorrect
GBP - so far incorrect
Bonds - so far incorrect
HK$ peg to go in 2018 - incorrect
US$ to surge in 2019 - incorrect

DOW best market to buy in 2015 - correct
ECM turning point in 2015.75 was the peak in govt - correct IMO

Other points worth noting:

I notice that his calls tend to move further down the track each WEC
The Socrates training seminar is always looking at trades in hindsight
Nobody I speak to is able to grasp a sold trading protocol based off Socrates - this could be due to the way its taught or simply that it does not work in real time.
I was personally told at the WEC in 2015 that the "daily level CANNOT be used for trading when applying Socrates as it is just noise" - in the 2019 WEC we were told that it works over 80% of the time & the $ hit rate is much higher.
IMO most of the blogs are written by MA - the spelling is always poor & it is highly unlikely that the majority of attendees cannot spell.
Most of the questions on the blog start by saying how brilliant MA is for calling a low/high in a given market - the truth however is that he has not called any market low or high in real time
If Socrates is so perfect, why aren't we seeing hedge funds offer managed accounts to people?

I sum up by saying that Socrates is excellent at looking at data in hindsight & cycles of political change may be looked upon giving the reader further insight into the phenomena of the rise & fall of nations but that is it IMHO.
 

Thanks for posting. We really appreciate it.

Looks like the only questions you have are about Socrates, so I will try to address them.

Socrates is definitely only a hindsight system and cannot be used to generate profits consistently. Our experience is consistent with yours. Unfortunately it will never work so you have been waiting in vain. I would suggest you cancel your subscription unless you see value in viewing the markets in hindsight.

If the market moves in a straight line then Reversals will be elected with profit until no more Reversals are available. This is the only situation where Socrates works. But for this situation one does not need a trading system, not even a stop loss order. In other words Socrates cannot predict market turns such as the bounce after the 2015 Gold low, see Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015.

Quote
... in the 2019 WEC we were told that it works over 80% of the time & the $ hit rate is much higher. ...
This is a lie. They must know that it does not perform at this success rate. It is at 50% if not worse. If it was better then they would not sell the service, rather keep it for themselves. Fraudulently misrepresenting the performance of this system is a crime. What they say is also in conflict with the disclaimer that they print on the Socrates web site. On the site they are basically saying it is not supposed to be used for trading.

Most Armstrong products / services are pitched to be based on the predictive power of Socrates or his models. If the underlying claims about model accuracy are fraudulent then such sales are fraudulent as well whether it is a report, a seminar or Socrates, it does not matter.


Why are hedge funds not using Socrates? For the same reason. Any trading system that works would definitely not be shared and sold as a service such as Socrates. It simply does not make sense to share such a system.

The Martin Armstrong team is a bunch of sarcastic people who do not even hide the fact any more that they are looking for victims with their scam:

Quote from: Gumbi on December 29, 2019, 09:02:17 PM
There is no such thing as bad publicity. The irony is I found out about Armstrong from people like you.

HAHA my first victim Kiss



Martin Armstrong's self-congratulating "QUESTION" emails are written by himself as you have observed. They are getting so grotesque recently that one can sense that he is not respectful of his viewers / clients, rather he sees them as victims to exploit. See The Fan Email Confidence Trick. At this level, and confirmed by the overwhelming feedback that we are getting about these questions, we can say that it is beyond doubt that these questions are fake.

Look, just two messages ago decipher11, a WEC attendee, pointed out how primitive the reversal system is from his perspective. Again, this is not an isolated experience. The whole Martin Armstrong affair is a total disaster, very sad.

I would suggest that you visit the links below and study all material presented there. It has cost us a fair amount of energy to build armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com. The information is biased, but accurate, based on facts, no opinion. If you have any comments, please post them here.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

258  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 30, 2019, 04:23:29 PM
This call for a correction in Jan 13th/18th 2020 IMO is irrelevant, the indices are so overbought I feel the weight on my shoulders, lol. Anyone who pays attention to markets can see a correction coming. Here's my prediction, the market corrects this week and/or first week in Jan.

 


 Cool

Why is it irrelevant, the model still forecasts the correction, it is not something Martin made the arrays, to conform to it. I am still waiting for testing the model before I pay for his subscription, Gumbi should send me the numbers soon. I am noticed, will alter the settings, now.

Also I see, lot of people here regurgitate the same phrases, Martin is a charlatan, bla. bla. What is going on here? We don't need that, explain in detail what you want to say.


I don't personally know why the Pi dates seem to be spot on. Maybe it is just a fluke but just from my experience. I have no explanation for 2001.695, especially the one in April 2010 pi date, and May in 2007, and Goldman Sachs getting sued. So I thought if similar affairs repeat maybe the recent Pi date should conform to it, so I waited and watched for any news about Goldman. And we had yet again on the same day, 2018.895 Goldman Sachs getting sued again.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/goldman-sachs-going-down-on-the-pi-target/
Even though it may seem a minor incident, not having broader implications, it shows that there is some order in how affairs are arranged.

And I also need an explanation for the claims of Princeton accumulating transactions, a little over 1 trillion dollars, read it in FX street, this is not some random blog website. So what is this about? Is this with trading transactions or some weird money laundering, scam going on? I am not going to follow Martin with blind faith. It is a possibility that Martin is a scammer and that he did, in fact, did the deed which leads him to 11 years of solitary confinement.




What do you want? If I had had the opportunity to view this site 10 years ago or so when I first read about Armstrong, when there were no critical sites like this one, then sure I would not have even looked at this crackpot.

Even this rather unstructured blog is loaded with facts that you can check. And yes, there is bla, bla as you say but that is opinion that you quote as credible. I am dealing only with facts not opinion.

Go and spend the time to read the facts and check them. I am here to help people like you and now you want to be spoon-fed?

Give me a break.

We are volunteers who aim to protect people like you and you are complaining.

The Wikipedia site is a good start. I can tell you it is not biased. Read the edit history of the Wikipedia article and you will see how many facts even were rejected because they do not meet the high quality standards. You have to have some patience. A charlatan like Armstrong is not an everyday occurrence - he spent decades to build up layers and layers of smokescreens. It takes time to unravel that. Have you read all 340 pages of this blog? Have you read all pages of armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com ?

Before you are complaining, DO challenge us. But not with bla-bla like you do. Quote one issue at the time. With links. That is the way to do it. Tell us where we are wrong. Otherwise you get what you deserve.

You are biased. You WANT to believe Armstrong and you are looking for confirmation. Perhaps you find another cult member who can do this for you. Ask Gumbi then. Did he not give you what you want?


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
259  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 30, 2019, 10:29:26 AM
In addition to my prior post

It is more than a black box. It is a complex black box that monitors the entire world. It can see trends others cannot for it processes inputs on a multiple dimensional plane that just may be beyond human capability. You have to understand that a true deep learning machine is not a linear program that a human writes IF this THEN that ELSE do this. It has taught me to see what it sees, but it is not something that is a simple formula to achieve.

We will go public so it continues, but I prefer not to allow it to be sold to some bank or government who then keeps it for themselves. When I die, my explanation will be released, but not the code.

Another important aspect worth elaborating on.


We have proven that his models are LESS THAN ONE-DIMENSIONAL.

What I mean with that is that at a maximum, the computer looks at a fixed number of bars in a single time frame.

Imagine!

It cannot even combine the information from multiple time frames. Let alone correlate with other markets such as currencies. So the claim you mention is a load of bullshit.

Is it not interesting to stick with basic reasoning, research and knowledge and explore what is actually there for everyone to see?

He cannot publish the code because that would expose the fraud. That conspiracy theory that the government wanted his models is a clever smokescreen. Why would the government be interested in his outdated computer programs and computers? Perhaps only because they needed to confiscate whatever looked like an asset but not for the intellectual property value of the programs.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
260  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: December 30, 2019, 09:55:23 AM
Notice the backtracking from @Gumbi?

I wonder if Socrates has forecast a class action lawsuit against MA in 2020? The US is a highly litigious country.

There likely will be a lot of retail investors nursing losses based on Socrates "predictions", from trading, through to needlessly selling their property - all based on an elaborate hoax.

Not to mention thousands wasted on conferences that just glorify blog posts, to reports that contain 99% irrelevant ramblings about history and a few pages that replicate the ambiguity of the blog posts...

Gumbi has done a really good job to point us in the right direction with his lies. Not directly because he has been trying to distract in an extreme way. The key is to resist following his distractions. Just ignore. I have used him to refine my strategies of pointing out what really matters. The key point is really to collect and condense the material that would be useful in such a class action lawsuit. The fraud. Not that his predictions are wrong. No, it it is the fraud, the deception. He can put out as many disclaimers on his web site as he likes. They do not matter.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
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