Should be interesting because in 6 months, at the most, if you own a namecoin you will be able to purchase a 1000 times more domain names than you can today. Currently it takes 11.1 NMC to purchase a domain name. With that same 11.1 NMC in 6 months you will be able to register 1,110 domains.
Sound familiar? The exponential growth is very similar in that of bitcoin.
After the last difficulty adjustment and the price overall rising in the ratio of NMC to BTC I'd say people are hanging on to them NMC's.
I don't know where you're getting your numbers from. The cost goes down by 50% every 8192 blocks. Once merged mining happens, it'll take at most 4 difficulty updates to bring difficulty to parity with bitcoin. That's just over 10,000 blocks. After that, cost goes down by 50% every 2 months. So in ~2 months merged mining will become a reality, then difficulty will shoot up in a matter of days to adjust to the new processing power. At this point we're about 16,000 blocks from now. That's 2 halvings of cost, so cost is 1/4 of what it is now. Then every 2 months we'll get another 50% decrease. So that's 1/16th of current cost to register a domain in 6 months. Hardly 1/1000th. |
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After about 3 difficulty changes after block 24000, NMC and BTC will have the same difficulty it seems.
So what's the relative value of two coins that have exactly the same difficulty to produce?
You're looking at it from a strange perspective. After NMC block 24000 BTC will have their normal difficulty to produce and suddenly for a vast majority of namecoin miners NMC will have an effective difficulty of 0 -- they will be produced as a free side effect of existing BTC mining. Their value will be based purely on their utility (and demand), and should no longer have any bearing on their relative difficulty compared to BTC. Their relative value could go either way, of course. But I suspect the shift from current namecoin miners to bitcoin miners won't have a positive relative price impact in the short term. Long term depends heavily on whether 7200+ namecoins are consumed every 10 days or not. I'm just taking the other side of the trade out loud. Consider merged mining with Namecoin as a dilution of the new overall "Coin" market. Given the same difficulty and hash rate, miners are simply given twice as many coins. If you don't presume a bias towards either type of coin, then you've just diluted the market by adding twice as many coins over the long run. The ratio of Bitcoins to Namecoins will approach 1 to 1 in the long run. Both equally scarce. Both having required the 1/2 of the same investment to create. Using that admittedly incomplete analysis, then long term Namecoins are worth about the same as Bitcoins. Plus, both are worth half as much as one would have been before the dilution. If you are building a trade plan around this idea, then you are trading from the long side of the currently thin Namecoin market. This analysis is flawed - you cannot assign worth to something without making an assumption about the demand for that good. You're assuming that namecoins will have the same demand as bitcoins, which is certainly not going to be true unless namecoins will become a general purpose currency instead of being limited to registering domain names. As a result, there will be no dilution of bitcoins. Since namecoins will essentially be a byproduct for most miners after merged mining, NMC might experience depreciation. Depends on whether the miners hold onto the NMC or dump them on the market. Also, difficulty is completely arbitrary as far as price is concerned. The only things that matter are supply and demand. Supply will not change because the network adjusts difficulty. Demand - who knows what it will do. |
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been mining for a month and some, haven't found a block. I guess the pool is doing its job  |
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I think everyone here is forgetting that as it currently stands, the average BTC and NMC generation rates are exactly the same. Also, there are exactly three variables that matter: supply, demand, and price. Supply will remain the same (there might be a small adjustment period here), demand isn't affected and it follows that price will stay constant. Difficulty is entirely arbitrary as far as the market is concerned.
I think it'll be good for the stability of the NMC market, and I don't really see a downside to it apart from the fact that for most people it'll probably be better just purchasing NMC instead of mining it themselves as mining on an individual basis will take much longer.
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Can anyone post a detailed how to on setting up solo mining?
When I start namecoind (on Windows 7) via command prompt it does nothing and says nothing.
That's your server window. It will stay blank. Open up a new command prompt to give commands to the server and type in namecoind help for a list of commands. |
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totally false logic. Why did the price drop when the difficulty at 50K then? As you said, it took a month so it created a namecoin shortage as well.
There's two parts to price, supply and demand. Obviously the demand wasn't there, so the price lagged parity with BTC, so people left NMC mining for BTC mining. Also, you'll see that I said *SHOULD* which is based on the assumption that demand won't fall (probably should have stated this assumption). It's the future, it's uncertain - this is my take on it. |
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The pool operators tend to keep the transaction fees - miners divide the 50BTC after fees. Use 50 as your starting point and your payout is exactly what it should be.
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subsidize a 2 day profit bonanza for people who mine in 2 days what you will mine in the following 40 have you seen future predictions of the next difficulty.. it is going to take them 80 days to kill that beast. The exchange rate has little to do with the difficulty (as proven by the recent USD/BTC exchange rate you cant mine dollars. The point of the price reaching parity is miners going back and forth until it does. Price isnt reflecting the current difficulty as the current difficulty will only last days.. the price is reflecting futures.. and it looks like the difficulty will rise greatly in a couple of days. IMO anyways It won't take 80 days. The difficulty can only go up 4x. Get educated. Go to school. Don't do drugs. It took nearly a month to finish out difficulty ~50k...if the same thing happens, it's going to take almost double that, or worst case, more people leave than before and it'll take even longer. This will essentially create a NMC shortage during the next difficulty cycle which should cause an increase in the price of NMC. |
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umm...50 coins magically appear in your account.
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seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.
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cool, went from 349 (original improved kernel) to 350.3 with latest. Keep 'em coming  |
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Pardon my ignorance, but isn't it more profitable to mine today than it was when Bitcoins cost less than a half a penny a piece 1.5 years ago? The lack of profitability didn't stop the mining movement back then, and it's not going to stop us now.
No, the mining power of the network was tiny, and difficulty very low. Check this chart: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=27071.0For example, in april of 2010, 1MH/s of computing power netted you around 25 cents a day. A Core i7 can make about 10MH/s so that's 2.5 bucks a day using cpu mining which is more than enough to cover electricity. GPU mining came around in the end of 2010, and you can see the fall in $/MH that resulted from the growth of computing power. |
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No, the diode is not broken because it registers temps just fine when mining on the gpu's.
I'll post another video later on...
Dude, your card's fan speed goes from 39 in the beginning of the vid to 53 halfway through...it's doing the work. |
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Let's make it VERY CLEAR here that triple mining is simply a modified pyramid scheme. As such, it's a scam for the average user.
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try triplemining, they still offer the highest payments i've ever seen in a pool so far... yeah, for the ones who create minipools and spam the forums to attract more victims  I mined with 3 days there with 1.5 g hash, a "estimated" reward of 53 bitcents.. Whoa! I can retire now.. they are still lookin for that block I started on.. Problem is low mhash = high variance. For example, triplemining is chugging along at ~60Ghash now, so they should on average find about a block in just over a day. But it could be 5 days, or 3 hours. |
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I don't feel the same hype vibe that I felt a month ago; I feel like BTC growth/hype has reached a plateau, if not started to decrease. (Now that's very subjective, so I can't put that forward like it's fact or anything -- just my own vague, intuitive, personal feeling after keeping up with this board for some time)
A whole bunch of people have just discovered they won't get rich by doing nothing while their PCs consume vast quantities of electricity. That's a powerful incentive to mine less, which in turn will lower the price as people who already have bitcoins and are ready to give up will dump what they have left. I turned off two 6950s today. At the current price (and with the weak US dollar) I was breaking even on costs. If the price falls to $11 then I'd definately be making a loss on every bitcoin generated. There are many people (mainly in the USA) who get very cheap electricity and apparently pay no tax on income, so they're happy to mine even if the price hits single digits. That rig probably takes like .6kw/hr. Even with BTC at $10, you'd easily be turning a profit after electricity unless you're paying over $.3/kwh. |
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I'd mine in the pool if it had like 300ghash+. But at ~13ghash, it could take a month to get one payout if you're really unlucky...
That does raise a paradox of how one gets to 300+ GH/s  That's the thing at this point - if you don't have a decent userbase, the variance in block times is HUGE. I only have 1 5850 so I'm a small fry and I prefer the consistency the larger pools give. If I had 10 rigs, I could afford to throw one at a low ghash pool and play roulette. |
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I'd mine in the pool if it had like 300ghash+. But at ~13ghash, it could take a month to get one payout if you're really unlucky...
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