Yes, it is the case. Yet the best scenario would be buying it not in 2016, but even earlier, but yes - from 2016 to ATH, and then buying again this year, is still decent ROI. And no, its not impossible actually if you don't simply trade, or HODL forever, but rather analyze markets, trends, hypes, news (including fake ones - what has been pushed to masses), mining activity, etc., etc. Over time it gets natural without too much efforts.

I wouldn't agree that decline to $500 is impossible. Of course it's by no mean market prediction (I personally don't think we will see $500 in long-term), but it is well possible. Once our grandchildren (or earlier?) get quantum computers at their homes the same way we have PCs and phones now, where would be BTC? But under normal conditions, for sure - it won't go to $500 so easily (20x decline)... That's for BTC, but are you that sure about sh*tcoints with <$5-10 cap?

Besides, your definition of "buying dip" will vary from investor to investor. For someone who was born just today, BTC @ $50,000-100,000 can well be "buying the dip", and eventually, if all the optimistic predictions about BTC come true - recent $19.5-20k was also "buying in a dip". We can see what was the bubble and what wasn't only in retrospective after bubble bursts, and until then it's usually just another high-growth asset.

Actually investment horizon of 1-3 years is normally pretty short, as traditionally in investments long-term is like 20-50 years. And 1-3 years is a decent amount of time to destroy all your wealth. Like imagine you bout @ $1k in Dec-2013, and have 3 years left (for whatever reasons - retirement, urgent large expense, some problem, etc.), and if you hold for 1y, you get to sell @ $300, and if 3y - @ $900, so that's -10% market price, plus inflation, plus FX rates, plus opportunity costs, plus etc., etc., and it turnes out to be greater than -10%.


I'm not insider of Binance, or those, but I'm pretty sure as they have US$ expenses / US$-denominated expenses (salary, rent, tax, marketing), while they might be paying in BTC for some part, most of it, especially for shareholders, they would rather keep US$. For example, if you are regulated Sequoia Capital, you cannot accept your share in crypto-exchange to fluctuate that much, nor you can accept BTC-dividends. Therefore, I believe they might be heavily engaged in hedging operations with derivatives.


Could you elaborate on that please, why you wouldn't if it gives you same exposure, you know the contract / security is stored safely and you can lose it only in the same way you would lose actual BTC (phishing, hack, scam, etc.). Then why not to hold what can give greater % with same privileges?

Feel free to ask any questions regarding TVS or as.exchange It's our pleasure to get your feedback and help you with understanding new financial products.

That's fairly simple as was described with example above using our Tranched Value Security (patent pending), which I will quote below:


So from that example, once TVS backed by BTC declined in value, Junior TVS becomes $3,000, and the holder of it might want to sell it in the market. You can buy that Junior TVS for $3,000 which gives you the right to claim 50% of BTC market value, or $5,000 given that Senior TVS was satisfied in full.

After that if BTC increase in value to $11,000, you can claim 50% of it, as Senior TVS's claim is also fully satisfied. So your return becomes $11,000 x 50% / $3,000 - 1 = +83.3%, while BTC returned only +37.5%.

Thanks for the reference to the treads, will definitely check them out!

While you are absolutely right that BTC and crypto-market has been stabilizing recently, but still it's volatility when just recently it was @$4.8k and now nearly @$20k - that's 4.8x ROI. Most of the professional hedge funds with multi-billion AUM can just dream about that in such period of time Yet, there's no guarantee that tomorrow some new fake news won't break the streets (like the last one that Chinese gov seized assets of PlusToken scam, while actually those BTC were already sold before the announcement) and BTC won't crash again. If you are true long-term HODLer - no problem for you, but if you are a common person with short investment horizon like 1-2 max 3 years, you are unlikely to be happy about such swings. If you are a mid-/large-company dealing in BTC - you won't be happy either to see sharp changes of your assets; if you are long-only fund - also; if you are large exchange like Binance, Huobi, Coinbase, etc. - having your profits and assets fluctuating by 4-5x times within a year isn't a pleasant experience too.

As for trading... well, that's a separate topic for discussion I guess. In short-term you might earn something or hedge something, but eventually, you won't be able to beat the market. Because the the crypto-market is already in semi-strong form efficiency (Market Efficiency) (yes, some small coins might be experiencing weak-form efficiency), so theoretically you won't earn sustainably > than market. And if you are a common person - your success chances are even less.

As for DeFi... - completely agree with you. Most of the current ones, especially some popular derivative DeFis / DEXs are launched by kids who know nothing about derivatives, about running a business, nor about tech security. That's why trading volumes start to decline recently, as people get more educated about those flaws.

But for you, as long-term hodler, why wouldn't you for example buy ultra-long-term call options and just keep them?

One of our founders bought BTC early 2016 and sold @ $19.5k in 2018, and then bought again in 2020 when it was $4.8k if you are curious, you can find some of his posts about that on Twitter

It is possible though to make BTC worthless for a moment of time... if it's announced to be completely illegal globally and holding BTC would be hardly punished. Not same, but similar thing happened with gold before. Yet, after such thing the price would skyrocket, then would turn to ashes for some period, and people would create new ways to trade BTC thus restarting the cycle and it would continue going on like that under radars thus again increasing the value. "Historical cycles repeat themselves" and "this time is never different"

I have always been interested in derivatives and structured products, and wanted to get community's opinion about how do you manage Bitcoin price risk? While there are different strategies with options, futures, perpetuals, etc., including some people simply ignoring market swings and just forever HODLBTC; with BTC price volatility, it's not that pleasant to see that today you have $1k in BTC, tomorrow it's $10k, and then $500...

There are various researched on crypto derivatives market, but it seams that according to CoinDesk, there are mainly 2 products - perpetuals, and futures (which are nearly same, with exception of maturity), and recently options started to emerge... Isn't that pity that the so-called "innovative finance market" came only that "far" by offering what has been know for decades in traditional ("old fashioned") markets?

Unfortunately, most of the DEXs are created by immature people who even don't realize how trading works starting from the order matching mechanisms (yes, there are different ones), to security measures, and ending with how derivatives markets work. Therefore, among the DEXs as of now there aren't any good or reliable ones for now. The sole purpose of those DEXs is just to play on the hype and raise some money, and then play the "oh, we got hacked" scenario with consequent blaming that since it was DEX, users are reliable for own loses. Well, in fact, the so-called "DEXs" are not decentralized at all - as would be realized by anyone with little tech background. Therefore, irrespective of product types (derivatives vs. spot), market types (OTC / (P2P) vs. centralized trading), CEXs win in all aspects.

Btw, there's a good discussion about such things in the nearby thread (not advertising): The future of crypto exchanges

This is probably one of the most informative and good threads about exchanges

We absolutely agree with the points made above, that now there are way too many exchanges in the space, which is mainly due to the availability of open-source and cheap solutions (which all consequentially get hacked and users lose their money). The reason for those exchanges to launch is because it's usually more profitable than doing ICOs or DeFis. The point that in the next 10 years or so there will be only few exchanges left is very reasonable, and we also expect the same due to the following reasons:

1. Some of the exchanges are launched for the single purpose of scamming people, which includes both CEXs, and DEXs (unprofessionals think it's impossible to scam there, but do you really believe that all those recent hacks are strange coincidences?)
2. Most of the new exchanges fail to realize how to run an actual business, and think that just launching + making campaign will bring millions of customers
3. Another biggest group of exchanges (DEX & CEX) are launched by immature people who don't even realize how financial products work (like many of new derivative DEXs), but due to good marketing attract a good deal of user base, which will eventually realize what they bought in, and will leave them
4. Another big group of exchanges are running IEOs, own tokens, or start to turn to DeFi for no actual reason... "just because everyone is doing it" so they believe they also need to do so, but by adapting the wrong business model they just dig their own grave  
5. Other exchanges might be good on the above points, but weak in security, therefore they eventually get hacked and have no way of recovering reputation or compensating customers
6. Others launch exchange simply to run there another new sh*tcoin from some ICO/TGE/etc. - so they will die fairly quick too
7. If you exclude all exchanges described above, the left ones are probably the good ones, with good product, security, marketing and who do care about users, but some of these ones will get killed by compliance and regulations simply because "they are in the wrong place (legal jurisdiction)"
8. And finally among the left ones, the few big ones will be either buying out each other, or engaging in hardcore competition

So to conclude, most of the current exchanges (even the ones that look so awesome from marketing) will fail, and the big players won't even need to buy them out - they will go out of business by themselves in the long-term But in short-term, we will see new levels of hype about useless DeFis being implemented everywhere for no purpose, and more immature and unknowledgeable people launching new exchanges - just like was in the first wave with ICOs, then with CEXs & IEOs in the second wave, and now with DEX & DeFi in the third wave.

Yes, as.exchange is OTC derivatives trading platform, which means you trade with other users directly, thus you don't need to worry about possible issues with the exchange. as.exchange serves as facilitator of the trade by providing a secure place to execute deals, and we develop financial products which you can trade with others on your own terms.

Dear BitcoinTalk community, we are pleased to share with our our press release above, and invite everyone to start trading. As of the current date, we successfully completed public beta tests with over 1,300 registered users, and now you can start securitizing and trading actual Bitcoin BTC. Since opening up several hours ago, open interest on as.exchange is already over $50,000, and this is just a beginning!

as.exchange: Innovative Derivatives Exchange is Launched – Now Traders Can Diversify Returns Within Single Asset



Alter Securities has officially launched as.exchange, with the first tradable product being Tranched Value Securities (patent pending) backed by Bitcoin underlying asset, which is expected to provide better solutions for traders and investors to manage price volatility and safeguard returns.

Hong Kong, 03/12/2020. Alter Securities, a developer of innovative financial products and technology, today announces launching of as.exchange trading platform. as.exchange is the only venue where Tranched Value Securities (patent pending) will be offered, alongside with other new derivatives in the near future, which are expected to enhance traders’ risk management, returns and contribute to more efficient markets.

as.exchange currently is the only company around the globe providing OTC cryptocurrency derivatives trading to retail users, as well as institutional investors. Unlike other cryptocurrency derivative exchanges, as.exchange is the only one that offers patented financial products. This sets as.exchange apart from the major competitors, making the products offered beneficial even to the other cryptocurrency exchanges for the purposes of liquidity enhancement and risk management.

According to the recent research by CoinDesk, the most popular derivatives for cryptocurrencies are perpetual swaps (invented by BitMEX), and futures, currently offered by most of the largest exchanges. In fact, as of 2020, out of 43 large exchanges, 74% of them offer perpetual swaps, 53% offer futures, and 20% offer options. There’s a small number of cryptocurrency derivative exchanges that offer novel products, among which are FTX, Delta Exchange, CoinFlex, and LedgerX, but even these “new products” are new only for cryptocurrency markets, but have existed for a long-time in other alternative asset and capital markets. Due to that, the so-marketed “innovative finance” market, was not so until the launch of as.exchange with own patented derivatives.

“Alter Securities through as.exchange is expected to bring the long-awaited true financial innovation, in the world with overhyped FinTech, where the true innovation was taking place in the technology stack, without the necessary attention for financial part, ” said Nikolay Zvezdin, Founder and CEO of Alter Securities. “As a part of as.exchange mission, we will be launching a series of innovative financial products that have not been offered by the existing exchanges in the capital markets area, as well as in the cryptocurrencies space, which is expected to improve market efficiency, and satisfy a wide range of investors’ interests”.

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as.exchange is the first OTC cryptocurrency derivatives marketplace managed by Alter Securities, allowing traders to issue a new type of instruments - Tranched Value Securities (TVS). Our integrated platform has been designed from the ground up to offer the best trading experience for users. Only here you are able to trade innovative derivatives and other financial instruments which are unavailable anywhere else! The combination and sustainable synergy of an innovative financial instrument, advanced technological development has allowed us to bring breakthrough trading experience to a whole new level.

Alter Securities develops new financial instruments, innovative technology and derivatives to improve market efficiency, expand investment opportunities, and enhance underlying risk-return profiles. With our solutions investors can buy, sell, store, and invest in common assets in unconventional ways, and manage investments, all in one place. We aim for open, global financial system that is efficient, accessible and accommodates all investors.

Tranched Value Security (patent pending) is a new type of financial derivative offered exclusively at as.exchange, which allows traders to diversify underlying asset risks within a single underlying asset.

I am sorry to point that out, but Uber, Facebook, and even yearn were also small at some point in time. While you are absolutely right that unfortunately blockchain space has been heavily abused by scammers, in fact not everyone is like that. This is actually the reason why as.exchange does not make any ICO/TGO/IEO/DeFi/own token/public fundraising, or something like that. Instead, we developed the entire product with own team's capital (some members asked us to show the team on our [ANN] tread, so you can read about us there), and we simply offer a better solution for anyone who worries about where BTC price will go tomorrow, and who want's to earn above market return without leverage.

While we cannot make comments about wyretrade, if you do have any questions about as.exchange or how our product works, feel free to reach out to us directly, and we will be happy to assist you.

Thank you for considering as.exchange as a part of your research. We really appreciate that, and more than happy to answer any questions you, or other community members might have. Some of them might have been already answered on our official [ANN] so you could check that as well.

While we appreciate your interest in as.exchange, please be advised that we DO NOT raise funding. Therefore, you cannot invest in as.exchange, and if anyone offers you so - it's a scam!

The sole purpose of our announcement here is to warmly invite professionals and novel users of crypto assets to as.exchange to evaluate by themselves how Tranched Value Securities can help them in managing BTC price volatility, and safeguard returns even in falling markets. And we will be launching more innovative financial derivatives in the future, so stay tuned.

Thank you for your appreciation, we highly value it! We do ensure to reply to all community members ASAP, as every of your opinions is very important to us.

As for the question about the team, here's some brief information:

Nikolay Zvezdin - Founder & CEO: Activist Investment Manager and Value Creation Consultant at Harmony Healthcare Fund, and Direct Investment Manager at DM Capital with cross-border PE (LBO) and VC deal experience in TMT, FIG, Healthcare, FMCG, Industrials, Diversified and T&L across the U.K., U.S., Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, China, and Russia. Closed strategic M&A deal (~$20 million synergies), restructured portfolio company (resulting EVs: $523 million and $57 million), and participated in Stage A fundraising (>$10M) at Envinary Group. Participated in 8 potential LBOs (buy-side) worth of ~$22 billion at Bravia Capital (HNA Group’s alternative investment arm with $10 billion AUM); and in audit of the largest commercial and state-owned banks of CIS, and advisory activities with SME clients at Grant Thornton. B.S. in Banking and Finance from Ozyegin University (Turkey). Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA). CFA Level II Candidate. Winner of CFA Research Challenge in Turkey, participant in CFA EMEA Research Challenge, winner of Credit Suisse HOLT Valuation Challenge, winner of Credit Suisse HOLT Community Competition. OSINT contributor at Bellingcat. McKinsey & Co Executive Pannel Member. MIT Technology Review Global Panel Member.

Co-founder & CTO: Advanced AI researcher focused on the classification of unstructured data. Currently working on influence maximization problems in social networks. The outcome of this work would help to quickly determine nodes (individuals, objects, locations) that boost spread of information (or disease). Previously developed a mathematical model that allows predicting time series data of a biological process that allows to extend prediction interval where current prediction models fail, giving advantage in designing long-term strategy. Apart from scientific experiences, developed DLT-based (distributed ledger technology) ecosystem architecture to securitize physical assets, created a time-series prediction model of biological processes, such that predictions can be made for the time periods where no/small data is available for the regression analysis at the leading European engineering consulting firm, and worked on process optimization of a robotic cell for Toyota Co. (ultrasonic welding of automobile doors components), and participated in all stages of TozMetal Co. project implementation involving mechanical design of robotic tools and process redesigning to decrease cycle time while with previous employer. B.S., M.S., PhD in Industrial Engineering. At the age of 15 wrote a book about calculus and mathematics which won national award in CIS country.

Eraj Ibodov - Marketing Director
Joe Zepeda - SMM Manager
Ryan Zhou - Compliance Manager
Somar Mowakket - MENA Relations Director
Dong Peng Huang - APAC Relations Director

Apart from the above listed, we also employ Senior Security Engineer, and Business Development Manager.

Some of the names are not disclosed yet, as these team-members still have obligations with old employers, however, they are quitting their jobs for as.exchange, and you will get to know everyone soon
 

Sure, here's how it works:

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You have 1 BTC priced at $10,000.

You're worried that BTC price will decline in the future.

You securitize 1 BTC on as.exchange and issue 2 Tranched Value Securities (TVS).

Each TVS can claim 50% of BTC market price, or a fixed value of $5,000, whichever is greater; one TVS is Senior and the other is Junior, where Junior TVS can claim anything, only if Senior TVS's claim was satisfied in full.

You sold Junior TVS because you expected BTC price to decline.
Another person bought Junior TVS from you because s/he expects BTC price to increase.

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Next week BTC price falls to $8,000 (-20.0% return).

Senior TVS price becomes: max($8,000 x 50%, $5,000) = $5,000 (0.0% return).
The Junior TVS price becomes: max($8,000 x 50%, $5,000) = $5,000, but then the total value of TVS would be $10,000, leading to arbitrage opportunities, hence ...
Junior TVS price becomes: $8,000 - $5,000 = $3,000 (-40.0% return)

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Next week BTC price rises to $11,000 (+37.5% return).

Senior TVS price becomes: max($11,000 x 50%, $5,000) = $5,500 (+10.0% return).
Junior TVS price becomes: max($11,000 x 50%, $5,000) = $5,500 (+83.3% return).

As I mentioned in the previous comment, you don't invest in project we are not one of ICO/TGE/IEO/DeFi or those that ask for liquidity or investment to fund launching of the product. Rather, we self-funded all development and now kindly invite blockchain-community to test out the product, as it can be highly beneficial in volatile markets to ensure that you secure the return despite the market swings.