Chuck Norris STILL trades @ MtGox; and gains more BTCs everytime!

Yep. I think that walls were the launching pad's towers that were just melted off the thrust power.

CCMF!!!1
CCMF!!!1

Mark selling his stash. I'm out here... need some sleep. Nite everyone.

Adam's account hacked!!! 

Now, THAT would have been awesome!

Well, finally we can celebrate some respectable volume! Hmm... end of August. September rally incoming?

JayJuanGee, you have absolutely right on the second point presented. Indeed there's a great difference to have a financial cushion in a case of an emergency situation. My point though, was not this. It was a rather philosophical aspect of life and its consequences as they're presented by the factor "pure luck". You see, nearly everything we do, is 50% based on luck.

I recently (last year) had a family member threatened by imminent death due to some very nasty biochemical reaction of a drug she was using. She was able to get through and outlive it "by pure luck". No doctor was able to find, what I was able to foresee from the very beginning, which was based on Michaelis Menden enzyme kinetics diagram**

I previously thought that we were able to live our lives via our decisions. That we live in a deterministic universe that we are able to control our lives via our actions, our mental abilities, our strength... and it may be right. But only for the 50%. The other 50% is pure luck. What is the definition of luck you might ask. Well, what I know for sure is that it can be described by a triple differential equation; or a double pendulum with non standard initial conditions; or a Lorentz attractor.

As a scientist, I present myself to the inner circle of mine as "a-religionist" so I will write this here only for historical reasons. What my grandmother used to say about luck was this: "My boy, luck is the will of God"

Hmm...


**Michaelis-Menten saturation curve of an enzyme reaction.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michaelis%E2%80%93Menten_kinetics

What most people don't think is "how long will I be here"? You know, as human beings we tend to believe that this thing we call "life" will last forever. Well, it won't. Let me explain with plain 5th grade math how this "prediction" of 50BTC will be more than efficient for a "life".

I'm in my mid 40s now. That means, I have ran (with high probability) about 5/8 of my life so far. I will probably have about 30 years of "quality" life in front of me with a strong possibility this goes extremely off-track when/if a chronic disease hits me (there's a 15-25% probability for this).

The good scenario.
Where I live a person can live with about $1000 per month if he/she doesn't pay a rent (add 200-250 monthly for a small apartment). I mean not lobster for dinner, but I don't mean beans everyday either. Here you have the ability to have your chicken, goats and a small garden that you can use to feed yourself off pretty healthy. A small car, a bicycle can help me live perfectly fine, me and my wife for this lot per month.

So: 1000x12=12K per year or 30x12K= 360K for the next 30 years of my life. For this to happen, BTC must land somewhere north $7200 within the next bubble. I wouldn't laugh at this just yet, but it's not 100% sure either.

What I'd propose is to spend "as much as" every year. To simplify this, I'd propose to sell that amount of BTCs you need in order to achieve the lifestyle you want. This will have the drawback you will miss the high value some year(s) but if you're monitoring this, you'd know exactly when to liquidate a-priori. That gives you an advantage over the traders.

The bad scenario.
Well, it's this scenario where every disaster that you wish for not to happen to you, for a strange whimsey of life, lands upon your head. Well; in this unfortunate scenario you'll realize that money or assets you have at your disposal don't really matter. Whether you have money or you don't, fate will always find its victims. What matters most, is you to manage to give the most to those closer to you and let them know that you *REALLY* cared for them all these years.

In this [un]fortunate scenario you will also realize that the most precious things in life are not the ones you can buy with money, or BTCs. Actually, they're no "things" at all.

Cheers.

Next stop @ $550? I could accept that!!!

Well, I guess you will have to wait a couple of years more then...

This is the most critical parameter. I strongly believe that most of us here won't be around when USD/BTC is $50,000 though; as this alone, certainly may add some extra "spice" to most of our daily "needs"... People always like to treat ourselves better when we have the chance (and the ability) to do so. Do we really need it? No. But most of us do so anyway.

As you probably have observed, we have changed the minimum mining unit to 200GH/s instead of a BFL-50. This is due to insufficient profit/power factor that these machines present compared to an S3 for instance. We're sorry for any inconvenience.

It's a decisional game. I, for instance, will NOT sell even one BTC until I DESPERATELY need to spend it. Some people here just live off by mining and spending; others think that selling at $1200 was a good idea... so many people, so many decisions. Everyone thinks his choice is the best of all.

This is absolutely true for most of the US and most EU countries right now. Inflation is an inevitable decease and IMHO, that's where BTC will make the difference. The smartest people I know have a smart retirement plan that *INVOLVES* BTCs and PMs in it.

Everything is a matter of perspective (and personal needs). Most people I know would have called it retirement at that point. 

For one, this has happened before (see September 10). Secondly, it also went above for a couple of times. What we people do is trying to "fit" random data to "non random" equations. This thread is trying to prove that since there are "enormous sized" players into the game, the game itself cannot be described perfectly by a mathematical model and thus its unpredictable. Is there a possibility the USD/BTC value goes to zero? Yes it is. Is there a possibility that goes 100,000,000? Well, that has about the same odds with the first possibility.

I believe, this game is not for the masses. At least not for now. It requires a) either deep understanding of very complex economic aspects of our society or b) enormous levels of stupidity to go "all in" with bitcoin. I'm into neither of those categories. Or I'm into both of them. I'd say if I was an electron I'd define myself as super-positioned between these two quantum states. I'd advise you to read and try to comprehend Risto's SSS plan here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0 and take a leap of faith. Or don't.

Everything is a choice.

I *think* it's not the time just yet. Realistically speaking any person with 50 BTCs or above could be considered "retired" by the time the next "projected bubble" occurs. That won't have to involve the trading drama though. Several charts have been posted here and elsewhere predicting the inevitable:



Chances are that this will happen sooner or later for a TON of other reasons though (https://plus.google.com/+PeterHDiamandis/posts/dWQFcpcws8V) but we don't know for sure *WHEN* its going to be. We may get a good idea though if we have our eyes and ears open (which is why we hang out a significant time of our lives in places like this).

So to summarize, I think this is the season; we're getting close, but not just yet. Some of the most intelligent people I've met are probably reading this text right now. If it gets to be differently, then A VERY intelligent person, has managed to fool us all, which is perfectly fine by me. I'd seriously laugh about it.

The real question that arises into my head for sometime now though (provided that what we anticipate about bitcoin turns out to be true) is this: Who is going to sell last?

It was a "necro" thread before Risto came along (thread necromancer? WTF???). So I owed him some kind of progression. TBH, a lot have changed since I first wrote this thread though; for instance I'm not exactly sure that the "system" is certified as "pure" chaotic or random or a mix of those two. Several thoughts have demented my brain and Jorge has made things even worse with his post (thank you dearly Jorge).

Me and Altoidnerd (yeah, the other crazy physicist here) have been into a lot of google talk chats and even started a project towards a "prediction model" that could imitate the intrinsic infrastructure of similar "systems"; for instance an equation prediction via a mathematical package (ie: Mathematica) of the price and predicting the next couple of minutes by taking the 1st derivative of the projected equation (explained 10 posts above).

Another idea is to build a system that could use a "set" of given equations that could be "pretty close" to the one that projects the value of USD/BTC per minute. Say for instance, is it a damped oscillation? Then load up equation #1. Is it a log equation? take #2 etc. Unfortunately, I'm way beyond my programming skills that I used to utilize a decade ago, and frankly my dear, I don't give a damn programming such a system for me or anyone else.

This project needs fresh brains, fast coding hands and A LOT of time to do it. I could provide the science -and a couple of BTCs maybe- to see it fulfilled; but that's that. So if any of you younger chaps feel the urge, please seize the opportunity. This may turn you into filthy (rich) or (at worse) with a brand new PhD thesis.

Cheers

We could definitely see some upward move now. CCMF soon?