Can I predict the value of BTC/USD?

[macsga]

I *think* it's not the time just yet. Realistically speaking any person with 50 BTCs or above could be considered "retired" by the time the next "projected bubble" occurs.

50BTC at $5000 is only a quarter mill. I wouldn't call that retired just yet.

Everything is a matter of perspective (and personal needs). Most people I know would have called it retirement at that point. 

[ensurance982]

I *think* it's not the time just yet. Realistically speaking any person with 50 BTCs or above could be considered "retired" by the time the next "projected bubble" occurs.

50BTC at $5000 is only a quarter mill. I wouldn't call that retired just yet.

Everything is a matter of perspective (and personal needs). Most people I know would have called it retirement at that point. 

I guess there are a lot of people in certain countries that would be able to more than retire form that amount of money. But when it comes to developed western countries, I guess most people tend to forget about the general inflation that's occurring. People are in danger of becoming broke when they're old.

[wachtwoord]

I *think* it's not the time just yet. Realistically speaking any person with 50 BTCs or above could be considered "retired" by the time the next "projected bubble" occurs.

50BTC at $5000 is only a quarter mill. I wouldn't call that retired just yet.

Everything is a matter of perspective (and personal needs). Most people I know would have called it retirement at that point. 

I guess there are a lot of people in certain countries that would be able to more than retire form that amount of money. But when it comes to developed western countries, I guess most people tend to forget about the general inflation that's occurring. People are in danger of becoming broke when they're old.

Well $250,000 is sufficient if you can live of off $10,000 of today's earning power of US Dollars indefinitely and don't invest foolishly.

[macsga]

Well $250,000 is sufficient if you can live of off $10,000 of today's earning power of US Dollars indefinitely and don't invest foolishly.

This is absolutely true for most of the US and most EU countries right now. Inflation is an inevitable decease and IMHO, that's where BTC will make the difference. The smartest people I know have a smart retirement plan that *INVOLVES* BTCs and PMs in it.

[giveBTCpls]

Yeah but if you had 50BTC and it went to 5000USD, are you saying you would cash out 100% of it just to retire? Could you live with the doubt of it reaching 10K and missing on legit gains?
And if you do not cash out, could you live off the doubt of it crashing after 5k?
It's a psychological game.

[macsga]

Yeah but if you had 50BTC and it went to 5000USD, are you saying you would cash out 100% of it just to retire? Could you live with the doubt of it reaching 10K and missing on legit gains?
And if you do not cash out, could you live off the doubt of it crashing after 5k?
It's a psychological game.

It's a decisional game. I, for instance, will NOT sell even one BTC until I DESPERATELY need to spend it. Some people here just live off by mining and spending; others think that selling at $1200 was a good idea... so many people, so many decisions. Everyone thinks his choice is the best of all.

[trader001]

I *think* it's not the time just yet. Realistically speaking any person with 50 BTCs or above could be considered "retired" by the time the next "projected bubble" occurs.

50BTC at $5000 is only a quarter mill. I wouldn't call that retired just yet.

Everything is a matter of perspective (and personal needs). Most people I know would have called it retirement at that point.  

I guess there are a lot of people in certain countries that would be able to more than retire form that amount of money. But when it comes to developed western countries, I guess most people tend to forget about the general inflation that's occurring. People are in danger of becoming broke when they're old.

Well $250,000 is sufficient if you can live of off $10,000 of today's earning power of US Dollars indefinitely and don't invest foolishly.

The amount really depend on your lifestyle.

People like Larry Ellison probably find it insufficient as he can spend up to 250k in one day alone.

[macsga]

The amount really depend on your lifestyle.
People like Larry Ellison probably find it insufficient as he can spend up to 250k in one day alone.

This is the most critical parameter. I strongly believe that most of us here won't be around when USD/BTC is $50,000 though; as this alone, certainly may add some extra "spice" to most of our daily "needs"... People always like to treat ourselves better when we have the chance (and the ability) to do so. Do we really need it? No. But most of us do so anyway.

[JayJuanGee]

I *think* it's not the time just yet. Realistically speaking any person with 50 BTCs or above could be considered "retired" by the time the next "projected bubble" occurs.

50BTC at $5000 is only a quarter mill. I wouldn't call that retired just yet.

That is what I was thinking, too.  And even if BTC is going to $10k soon,but then half a million is NOT really enough either... and would a person cash out or diversify part of that BTC portfolio.  My actions would depend in part about how quickly the price goes up and then for how long do I expect it to stay there and what had apparently caused the upswing.

[ssmc2]

I *think* it's not the time just yet. Realistically speaking any person with 50 BTCs or above could be considered "retired" by the time the next "projected bubble" occurs.

50BTC at $5000 is only a quarter mill. I wouldn't call that retired just yet.

That is what I was thinking, too.  And even if BTC is going to $10k soon,but then half a million is NOT really enough either... and would a person cash out or diversify part of that BTC portfolio.  My actions would depend in part about how quickly the price goes up and then for how long do I expect it to stay there and what had apparently caused the upswing.

Agreed. To live comfortably after retirement age one should have around a million. Which is why it's so important for the average person to begin saving as soon as they start earning income of any sort. Unfortunately we see the opposite more and more, at least here in the U.S.

[wachtwoord]

Well $250,000 is sufficient if you can live of off $10,000 of today's earning power of US Dollars indefinitely and don't invest foolishly.

This is absolutely true for most of the US and most EU countries right now. Inflation is an inevitable decease and IMHO, that's where BTC will make the difference. The smartest people I know have a smart retirement plan that *INVOLVES* BTCs and PMs in it.

Dude my annual rent is more than $10k  (and it's not like I'm living lavish or anything, it's an apartment).

[macsga]

Well $250,000 is sufficient if you can live of off $10,000 of today's earning power of US Dollars indefinitely and don't invest foolishly.

This is absolutely true for most of the US and most EU countries right now. Inflation is an inevitable decease and IMHO, that's where BTC will make the difference. The smartest people I know have a smart retirement plan that *INVOLVES* BTCs and PMs in it.

Dude my annual rent is more than $10k  (and it's not like I'm living lavish or anything, it's an apartment).

Well, I guess you will have to wait a couple of years more then...

[JayJuanGee]

I *think* it's not the time just yet. Realistically speaking any person with 50 BTCs or above could be considered "retired" by the time the next "projected bubble" occurs.

50BTC at $5000 is only a quarter mill. I wouldn't call that retired just yet.

That is what I was thinking, too.  And even if BTC is going to $10k soon,but then half a million is NOT really enough either... and would a person cash out or diversify part of that BTC portfolio.  My actions would depend in part about how quickly the price goes up and then for how long do I expect it to stay there and what had apparently caused the upswing.

Agreed. To live comfortably after retirement age one should have around a million. Which is why it's so important for the average person to begin saving as soon as they start earning income of any sort. Unfortunately we see the opposite more and more, at least here in the U.S.

Actually, we get into a few complications and speculations here; however, I also like to use $1million in liquid (or quasi-liquid) income generating assets as a decent target to aspire to. 

If you have $1million in liquid assets then with traditional investment models, you should expect at least be able to employ a 4%  per year withdrawal of the income without undermining the principle.  That would be $40k per year and $3,333 per month, gross. 

However a few things could change those variables regarding how much to draw.

1)  if you are able to achieve higher growth rates with your assets, then your withdrawal rate can be higher.

2)  Another variable can be if you are ready to start shrinking the principle, then you can start to draw into the principle and have a higher income but to expect that it will not last forever, that depends, usually on life expectancy and potentially the running into other income sources.

3) people are going to come to differing judgements concerning regarding how much they need to live, whether it is $1k per month or $3k or $10k or $20k or higher... Many times with current USA averages, $3k or more can be adequate in today's dollars (but maybe a little bit tight).

4) regarding inflation, we can probably project that inflation will continue to cause the amount needed to go up and even double by the time you need it (expect halfing of the value of the dollar every 10 years). If you think you will need it in 1 year or 5 years or 10 years or 20 years, the inflation should be accounted.  Also, If you live in another country the amount may be more or less than the american amount too, and those values are going to change over time and change relative to one another.  And, likely a world of bitcoin will affect these values, and affect decisions about where you would like to store your value... or how you would like to diversify your assets.

[Wary]

Well $250,000 is sufficient if you can live of off $10,000 of today's earning power of US Dollars indefinitely and don't invest foolishly.

This is absolutely true for most of the US and most EU countries right now. Inflation is an inevitable decease and IMHO, that's where BTC will make the difference. The smartest people I know have a smart retirement plan that *INVOLVES* BTCs and PMs in it.

Dude my annual rent is more than $10k  (and it's not like I'm living lavish or anything, it's an apartment).

If you retired, you are not tied to your job anymore, so you can move to a cheaper place/city/country.

[macsga]

What most people don't think is "how long will I be here"? You know, as human beings we tend to believe that this thing we call "life" will last forever. Well, it won't. Let me explain with plain 5th grade math how this "prediction" of 50BTC will be more than efficient for a "life".

I'm in my mid 40s now. That means, I have ran (with high probability) about 5/8 of my life so far. I will probably have about 30 years of "quality" life in front of me with a strong possibility this goes extremely off-track when/if a chronic disease hits me (there's a 15-25% probability for this).

The good scenario.
Where I live a person can live with about $1000 per month if he/she doesn't pay a rent (add 200-250 monthly for a small apartment). I mean not lobster for dinner, but I don't mean beans everyday either. Here you have the ability to have your chicken, goats and a small garden that you can use to feed yourself off pretty healthy. A small car, a bicycle can help me live perfectly fine, me and my wife for this lot per month.

So: 1000x12=12K per year or 30x12K= 360K for the next 30 years of my life. For this to happen, BTC must land somewhere north $7200 within the next bubble. I wouldn't laugh at this just yet, but it's not 100% sure either.

What I'd propose is to spend "as much as" every year. To simplify this, I'd propose to sell that amount of BTCs you need in order to achieve the lifestyle you want. This will have the drawback you will miss the high value some year(s) but if you're monitoring this, you'd know exactly when to liquidate a-priori. That gives you an advantage over the traders.

The bad scenario.
Well, it's this scenario where every disaster that you wish for not to happen to you, for a strange whimsey of life, lands upon your head. Well; in this unfortunate scenario you'll realize that money or assets you have at your disposal don't really matter. Whether you have money or you don't, fate will always find its victims. What matters most, is you to manage to give the most to those closer to you and let them know that you *REALLY* cared for them all these years.

In this [un]fortunate scenario you will also realize that the most precious things in life are not the ones you can buy with money, or BTCs. Actually, they're no "things" at all.

Cheers.

[JayJuanGee]

What most people don't think is "how long will I be here"? You know, as human beings we tend to believe that this thing we call "life" will last forever. Well, it won't. Let me explain with plain 5th grade math how this "prediction" of 50BTC will be more than efficient for a "life".

I'm in my mid 40s now. That means, I have ran (with high probability) about 5/8 of my life so far. I will probably have about 30 years of "quality" life in front of me with a strong possibility this goes extremely off-track when/if a chronic disease hits me (there's a 15-25% probability for this).

The good scenario.
Where I live a person can live with about $1000 per month if he/she doesn't pay a rent (add 200-250 monthly for a small apartment). I mean not lobster for dinner, but I don't mean beans everyday either. Here you have the ability to have your chicken, goats and a small garden that you can use to feed yourself off pretty healthy. A small car, a bicycle can help me live perfectly fine, me and my wife for this lot per month.

So: 1000x12=12K per year or 30x12K= 360K for the next 30 years of my life. For this to happen, BTC must land somewhere north $7200 within the next bubble. I wouldn't laugh at this just yet, but it's not 100% sure either.

What I'd propose is to spend "as much as" every year. To simplify this, I'd propose to sell that amount of BTCs you need in order to achieve the lifestyle you want. This will have the drawback you will miss the high value some year(s) but if you're monitoring this, you'd know exactly when to liquidate a-priori. That gives you an advantage over the traders.

The bad scenario.
Well, it's this scenario where every disaster that you wish for not to happen to you, for a strange whimsey of life, lands upon your head. Well; in this unfortunate scenario you'll realize that money or assets you have at your disposal don't really matter. Whether you have money or you don't, fate will always find its victims. What matters most, is you to manage to give the most to those closer to you and let them know that you *REALLY* cared for them all these years.

In this [un]fortunate scenario you will also realize that the most precious things in life are not the ones you can buy with money, or BTCs. Actually, they're no "things" at all.

Cheers.

Either scenario, it would be good to have a financial cushion.  

In the good scenario, your cushion does NOT need to be as great, if there is some fortune in that the BTC portion of your investment out performs expectations.  So maybe you withdraw only enough to live each month, but the remaining portion continues to gain value.. and yes, if you foresee price movements (whether they are above or below what you reasonably believe to be the trendline), then you can act accordingly to sell and/or to buy back in.

We should NOT delude ourselves into any kinds of thoughts that there are times in which money does NOT matter.   There are many variations of the bad scenario, and if shit really does hit the fan and you become debilitated or disabled in some kind of way, it could be a very good thing to be able to hire someone to perform home care services for you, rather than to drain other family members with some of these sometimes exhausting and time-consuming duties.  

My point is merely that having a financial cushion can make a considerable difference no matter what the scenario that plays out... and that seems to be a fairly large justification concerning why your plan should attempt to contemplate ways to live off of the passive income and NOT touching the principle as long as you can..  (or maybe only touching the principle when you can reasonably foresee that you are likely in the last 5-10-ish years of your anticipated life).

[macsga]

JayJuanGee, you have absolutely right on the second point presented. Indeed there's a great difference to have a financial cushion in a case of an emergency situation. My point though, was not this. It was a rather philosophical aspect of life and its consequences as they're presented by the factor "pure luck". You see, nearly everything we do, is 50% based on luck.

I recently (last year) had a family member threatened by imminent death due to some very nasty biochemical reaction of a drug she was using. She was able to get through and outlive it "by pure luck". No doctor was able to find, what I was able to foresee from the very beginning, which was based on Michaelis Menden enzyme kinetics diagram**

I previously thought that we were able to live our lives via our decisions. That we live in a deterministic universe that we are able to control our lives via our actions, our mental abilities, our strength... and it may be right. But only for the 50%. The other 50% is pure luck. What is the definition of luck you might ask. Well, what I know for sure is that it can be described by a triple differential equation; or a double pendulum with non standard initial conditions; or a Lorentz attractor.

As a scientist, I present myself to the inner circle of mine as "a-religionist" so I will write this here only for historical reasons. What my grandmother used to say about luck was this: "My boy, luck is the will of God"

Hmm...


**Michaelis-Menten saturation curve of an enzyme reaction.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michaelis%E2%80%93Menten_kinetics

[TPTB_need_war]

...I don't buy his "computer model" explanation though.

You probably lack appropriate domain knowledge to form an accurate assessment?

Have you not reviewed his record of correct predictions? It is essentially flawless since the 1980s if you understand his predictions are conditional and price and time are separate predictions.

You are most possibly right. I probably lack of the appropriate knowledge; nevertheless I have (as stated) said that he "passed one test", which (clarifying further for those who misunderstood) that his "model" is proven to be working. What I'm not sure about is that it's based on a computer model ie: a relational database mining s/w that includes every single economic data out there, that is able through calculations to extract an accurate prediction within a chaotic model.

To put it into perspective, as a theoretical physicist, I rest assure you that such a model is defined as "unpredictable". If you know more on the matter, I'd be honoured if you satiated my curiosity and obliterate my ignorance. I can certify that I'm more than capable to understand (even though it will take some more time than most geniuses in here) subjects from IT to QM (nevertheless, I stopped a while ago, being productive on the 1st one). Thanks in advance for your help.

I will come back to this after some sleep.

Before i sleep, some links:

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aarmstrongeconomics.com+hidden+order

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10890931#msg10890931

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9566419#msg9566419



See also his entropy model for a stochastic momentum model.

[TPTB_need_war]

Now; lets make things simpler. Say we can set with a very good precision the initial conditions. We're now talking about a SIMPLE dynamic system here with fully determined initial conditions. Now pay attention: Even if you can set the initial conditions on such a system, small differences have a totally different outcome; so as the time goes by; your predictions are getting enormously difficult to be true, thus rendering the predictions useless. This system's behaviour is called "deterministic chaos" and was first observed by Edward Lorenz who defined it like this:

Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future. ¹

Implicit in your point is that we can not specify initial conditions with exact precision due to Planck's constant (which is intimately related to that the speed-of-light is finite and also conceptually related to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle).

That is all fine and dandy, except it is irrelevant to games of chance in real world outcomes. If it were true that no order emerged from chaos, then entropy would be simultaneously infinite (internally) and 0 (externally) and nothing could exist from an internal nor external perspective. The internal perspective would fail to find any relative order (no point of reference with which to make an observation) and the external observer would observe a void.

Order exists at higher levels of conceptualization. And this is your myopia on our disagreement about Armstrong's computer model and your other egregious attack on knowledge. I encourage you to delve into the links I gave you upthread to Armstrong's writings about his model and chaos theory wherein he explains that moving to higher dimensions can extract order that is hidden in lower dimensional conceptualizations similar to your myopia here.

P.S. you are correct that the existing stochastic models employed are one-dimensional and thus don't have the scope to pull order out-of-chaos. Armstrong developed a multi-dimensional entropy stochastic model which extracts hidden order.

[TPTB_need_war]

I mean that stars have nothing to do with the mechanisms astrology describes but of course a lot with the physics involved.

Pardon my ενγλις  

The stars and everything else that go around in circles all follow a calendar, all together. It's all a mathematical pirouette.

http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/435:_Purity

But due to chaos theory we can't predict that the sun will rise tomorrow  

(this is satire)