Political Science Professor: Odds Of President Trump Range BETWEEN 97% AND 99% A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent. The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island. Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders. The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party. Norpoth announced his prognostication on Monday night during Stony Brook Alumni Association event at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan. “The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, according to The Statesman. “When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke,” the professor told the alumni audience, according to the student newspaper. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.” “Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent” in terms of popular vote, Norpoth prophesied “This is almost too much to believe,” he told audience members described by the student as nervously laughing. But he is convinced his model won’t be wrong. “Take it to the bank,” Norpoth confidently suggested. Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment, said his crystal ball also shows a 61-percent chance that the Republican nominee — Trump or not — will win the 2016 presidential election. The political scientist also said there is virtually no way Trump could lose the Electoral College vote if he rakes in 54.7 percent — or more — of the vote. Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries in caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term. The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon. In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912. The professor said he has used the model in recent times to predict Bill Clinton’s victories as well as George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s wins. http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/political-science-professor-odds-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/?google_editors_picks=true------------------------------------ Hernie penders' chance of becoming a US president? Zero.  
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Besides... Bernie has been fighting for black rights for over 50 years... he's always supported blacks... when he was in college, Bernie got arrested while standing up for black rights! (in 1963!) Serves him right. According to the latest opinion polls from South Carolina, less than 20% of the Black Democrats are supporting Bernie, compared to 60% plus for White Democrats. In every southern state, the situation is the same. The blacks hate this guy like the plague. On the other hand, Bernie is leading in the overwhelmingly white states. In Vermont, he is leading 83% vs 8% against Hitlery. Now compare this, with the unexpected and overwhelming support Donald Trump is receiving from the Hispanic Republicans.
I wouldn't believe everything you are told by mainstream media... they lie constantly... it's their job... Hillary pays them millions of dollars to lie to youBut we should believe the gospel, according to hernie penders. Why? Is that the only thing you have against Bernie? Slander and misspelling his name? Bernie does not just say it... he backs it up with facts and actions... He's been doing this shit for 50+ years... he has a good track record of being on the correct side of history with black rights and gay rights and pretty much everything... You don't have to listen to what he says... look into what Bernie has done during the past 50 years! He stands for the people, not the establishment!  How come you do not promote your own thread you've created about hernie penders, instead of pushing him here? Because you are slandering Bernie Sanders right here, and not in my thread? Thou doth assume too much Do you have anything specific against Bernie Sanders' policies, or do you just hate him because... you are ignorant? I guess both? You guess?!? What the fuck does that mean? It means you are full of shit and have not spent any time at all looking into the man's policies... Can you even name a policy that Bernie is in support of? No. He's weird. Don't you think? Trump is soooo much better.  |
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Besides... Bernie has been fighting for black rights for over 50 years... he's always supported blacks... when he was in college, Bernie got arrested while standing up for black rights! (in 1963!) Serves him right. According to the latest opinion polls from South Carolina, less than 20% of the Black Democrats are supporting Bernie, compared to 60% plus for White Democrats. In every southern state, the situation is the same. The blacks hate this guy like the plague. On the other hand, Bernie is leading in the overwhelmingly white states. In Vermont, he is leading 83% vs 8% against Hitlery. Now compare this, with the unexpected and overwhelming support Donald Trump is receiving from the Hispanic Republicans.
I wouldn't believe everything you are told by mainstream media... they lie constantly... it's their job... Hillary pays them millions of dollars to lie to youBut we should believe the gospel, according to hernie penders. Why? Is that the only thing you have against Bernie? Slander and misspelling his name? Bernie does not just say it... he backs it up with facts and actions... He's been doing this shit for 50+ years... he has a good track record of being on the correct side of history with black rights and gay rights and pretty much everything... You don't have to listen to what he says... look into what Bernie has done during the past 50 years! He stands for the people, not the establishment! How come you do not promote your own thread you've created about hernie penders, instead of pushing him here? Because you are slandering Bernie Sanders right here, and not in my thread? Thou doth assume too much Do you have anything specific against Bernie Sanders' policies, or do you just hate him because... you are ignorant? I guess both? |
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Do you have anything against a specific policy that Bernie Sanders supports?
Or, are you just a troll who likes to post a lot of bullshit slander?
My mission is for you to help me keep my threads up so you have no time updating you hernie penders thread. It is that simple really. Enjoy your stay. |
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Besides... Bernie has been fighting for black rights for over 50 years... he's always supported blacks... when he was in college, Bernie got arrested while standing up for black rights! (in 1963!) Serves him right. According to the latest opinion polls from South Carolina, less than 20% of the Black Democrats are supporting Bernie, compared to 60% plus for White Democrats. In every southern state, the situation is the same. The blacks hate this guy like the plague. On the other hand, Bernie is leading in the overwhelmingly white states. In Vermont, he is leading 83% vs 8% against Hitlery. Now compare this, with the unexpected and overwhelming support Donald Trump is receiving from the Hispanic Republicans.
I wouldn't believe everything you are told by mainstream media... they lie constantly... it's their job... Hillary pays them millions of dollars to lie to youBut we should believe the gospel, according to hernie penders. Why? Is that the only thing you have against Bernie? Slander and misspelling his name? Bernie does not just say it... he backs it up with facts and actions... He's been doing this shit for 50+ years... he has a good track record of being on the correct side of history with black rights and gay rights and pretty much everything... You don't have to listen to what he says... look into what Bernie has done during the past 50 years! He stands for the people, not the establishment! How come you do not promote your own thread you've created about hernie penders, instead of pushing him here? Simple. Everyone LOVES TRUMP. Even you. You know deep in your heart penders is not in it to win but to promote harpy clinton. As I said before, if you believe your religious leader that's fine. The same way he deleted himself from the podium to those BLM "things", the same way he will delete himself when harpy clinton will ask him to do so. Then you will be forced to vote for her to stop our great wall builder, President Donald J. Trump! It is so obvious. But.. thank you for promoting my thread instead of yours.... You have this black and white picture of a quitter, molested by cops, the same way he was molested by those BLM "things" not too long ago... History repeating...  |
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...and some idiots in Brussels are thinking about letting Turkey into the EU. They shouldn't even consider that until such "cult of personality" exist over there.
^^ THIS ^^ |
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Let's dispel with this fiction that Barry Sandwiches knows the difference between nouns and adjectives. That free education though.--------------------------------- My English is terrible. I should not be making fun of a US presidential candidate... Nah! He is making fun of himself to be closer to his people maybe... Yeah! That's it
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Besides... Bernie has been fighting for black rights for over 50 years... he's always supported blacks... when he was in college, Bernie got arrested while standing up for black rights! (in 1963!) Serves him right. According to the latest opinion polls from South Carolina, less than 20% of the Black Democrats are supporting Bernie, compared to 60% plus for White Democrats. In every southern state, the situation is the same. The blacks hate this guy like the plague. On the other hand, Bernie is leading in the overwhelmingly white states. In Vermont, he is leading 83% vs 8% against Hitlery. Now compare this, with the unexpected and overwhelming support Donald Trump is receiving from the Hispanic Republicans.
I wouldn't believe everything you are told by mainstream media... they lie constantly... it's their job... Hillary pays them millions of dollars to lie to youBut we should believe the gospel, according to hernie penders. Why? |
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It seems, based on the on going discussion, the thread's title is 100% factual.
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Winter is Trumping ---------------------------- Brilliant!
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Pleading is a fool's game. The democrat party knows it. They created their monsters: BLM, SJW, etc, etc... It is their problem if their creatures bite the hand of their master... Already happening with bernie, now with Apple, etc, etc.. You can't control them.
Popcorn time if this happens... For me anyway
I think it is less pleading, more warning them what will happen... If Bernie wins the popular vote by more than 5%, they can't give it to Hillary without throwing the election to Trump and destroying the entire democratic party... that's just how it is If it is a close race, and Bernie is only up by like 3%, they can throw it to Hillary without too many butthurts Could you imagine the republican party if Trump won the popular vote by 10% and the party nominated Marco Roboto? They can't run Bernie because he's a Jew and the blacks won't vote for him. They may have to make the superdelegates bail her out. Republicans don't have many superdelegates and can't do things like that. Since when don't blacks like Jews? I just mention the fact that we have that whole slavery and attempted genocide in common... then we have a beer or smoke a blunt Besides... Bernie has been fighting for black rights for over 50 years... he's always supported blacks... when he was in college, Bernie got arrested while standing up for black rights! (in 1963!) What has he done since this picture was taken? Carpentry? |
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Pleading is a fool's game. The democrat party knows it. They created their monsters: BLM, SJW, etc, etc... It is their problem if their creatures bite the hand of their master... Already happening with bernie, now with Apple, etc, etc.. You can't control them.
Popcorn time if this happens... For me anyway
I think it is less pleading, more warning them what will happen... If Bernie wins the popular vote by more than 5%, they can't give it to Hillary without throwing the election to Trump and destroying the entire democratic party... that's just how it is If it is a close race, and Bernie is only up by like 3%, they can throw it to Hillary without too many butthurts Could you imagine the republican party if Trump won the popular vote by 10% and the party nominated Marco Roboto? To illustrate your comment... http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/02/24/gope-announce-plans-to-go-full-mississippi-on-donald-trump-to-destroy-him/ |
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Pleading is a fool's game. The democrat party knows it. They created their monsters: BLM, SJW, etc, etc... It is their problem if their creatures bite the hand of their master... Already happening with bernie, now with Apple, etc, etc.. You can't control them.
Popcorn time if this happens... For me anyway
I think it is less pleading, more warning them what will happen... If Bernie wins the popular vote by more than 5%, they can't give it to Hillary without throwing the election to Trump and destroying the entire democratic party... that's just how it is If it is a close race, and Bernie is only up by like 3%, they can throw it to Hillary without too many butthurts Could you imagine the republican party if Trump won the popular vote by 10% and the party nominated Marco Roboto? Yes, the GOPe is working hard not to have Trump as their new leader. Too much to lose with him as he is no one's puppet. Bernie is a puppet and will help harpy clinton the best way he can to help fight Trump. He does not want to be president. He is not a fighter. No hope. Do not waste your $ with sanders. Making threads about him is cute though. |
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Dudes are you seriously criticizing a children song saying too much CO2 is bad for the Earth? --'
Get a life seriously...
The systematic indoctrination of children to further political programs is a big deal. In part because we've seen it before and it often ends poorly. Yep. It seems changing the subject to " Dude! Why are you blaming the children's song1!!11!1" won't work here. This is bitcointalk.org after all, not " operation obfuscate!" on reddit. |
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Do you have any idea what would happen to the democratic party if the popular vote was 55% Bernie and 45% Hillary, but the superdelegates pushed Hillary as the nominee anyway? The democratic party would split in 2... Hillary would lose, Trump would be president... there would be no democratic party in 4 years I wouldn't be surprised to see riots over something like that I already saw a petition about just such an occasion... pleading to the superdelegates to not do this... it got the 150k signatures in around 30 hours Pleading is a fool's game. The democrat party knows it. They created their monsters: BLM, SJW, etc, etc... It is their problem if their creatures bite the hand of their master... Already happening with bernie, now with Apple, etc, etc.. You can't control them. Popcorn time if this happens... For me anyway |
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******TRUMP 2016****** Time to clean this place up (USA)! I'm excited!  People are already working hard finding old TV shows from 1997, instead of wasting their time phonebanking, or wasting their little $ in donation for bernie. It's all good brother Can you feel the rise, the revolution? In Europe, here? I believe its a new awakening! HIGH ENERGY! |
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******TRUMP 2016****** Time to clean this place up (USA)! I'm excited! People are already working hard finding old TV shows from 1997, instead of wasting their time phonebanking, or wasting their little $ in donation for bernie. It's all good brother |
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