Well, 31.5 times 3 is 94.5 too.
also 30pi - 94.277778 that could be a real deal breaker! |
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All this talk of 75 and then next stop 100 misses out one crucial stop on the way. First bitcoin must get OVER 9000 (cents) A barrier that, as I'm sure you are all aware, could prove insurmountable  |
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UK viewpoint Cyprus people are being screwed by their government, but its not more than proof that we were right never to get involved with the Euro. However, it has made people aware of how powerful the EU really is. The problem for the UK is that it has a number of military bases on Cyprus, as well as a big expat community, so there are a number of stories in the press from real people who are being effected. One story involved a plane being sent from the UK to the military with a £1 million in cash on it to keep everyone in cash while the banks decided what they were doing. The other side is that now that the Euro has been shown to not be strong enough to be able to deal with the differences of Europe, from the rich north, to the corrupt east and poor south (there is a generality to annoy a few people!  ) it seems obvious that the EU is going to have to create a Eurolite to ensure that the Euro itself doesn't get killed, as it should. Luckily, the UK has its Pound sterling, and if the Euro is split into a north and south Euro currency with different valuations, then the pound will become more desirable again, making it easier for the London to grab the financial centre of Europe tag unchallenged! Of course, nobody is talking about bitcoins. This is purely about central banks because they know what they are doing! I'm concerned that, as seems to be the pattern in other countries, there is a bit too much confidence in our own economic situation and currency. National debt is around 70% GDP and we are still running a deficit despite austerity. Economic growth is flat. The money markets suggest that interest rates aren't going to be rising now until late 2018 at the earliest. (great for me my mortgage reverts to VAR of 0.95% above base rate in 5 months time...) whilst 'real' inflation continues to bite, despite what government reported rate might otherwise suggest. Compared to US we aren't doing too badly (debt at >100% GDP deficit of ~8%). Compared to eurozone we are about middle of road. So relatively speaking UK is OK, but that's realtive to a really poor worldwide situation! My biggest surprise is the seemingly widespread belief that 'our govt wouldn't do that to us'. Call me a cynic, but I would not rely on that one jot! I agree, let the banks fail, let the banksters take the fall. |
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I am uk, so only a plastic European. I'm unconcerned on a selfish "I'm not directly affected" level. I feel sad for the people in Cyprus because I think they are being robbed. I don't feel overly surprised, I'm pretty cynical where govt and finance are concerned. I'm not full on conspiracy theorist (though its all relative) but I fully beleive there is corruption at every level that drives the craziness we see in the global economy
To this end I try and protect myself. BTC is just one way (and seems to be more viable hedge/protection if wealth each passing day)
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fwiw I think op makes a lot of sense. The patterns so far have all taken place in a nerd microcosm. The nerds have had their hype cycle, and in the grand scheme of things i think the first bubble will barely register as a blip inthe awareness phase Makes perfect sense to me that this is media attention, and when the world gets hold of this today's vertical rise will become tomorrow's foothill of the bubble that we are about to enter. my optimism is of course based in the fact I am holding a big (for me) chunk of coins |
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if you live in the UK you will know this is major serious shit!
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...snip... And something like this Happens  Nearly 160 THOUSAND Dollars worth of sale volume and the price surged to ~30 USD per bitcoin. But look what happens when it falls! Not even enough sale volume to put it on the map. ....snip... So I suggest learning from past mistakes and making that little bit of profit otherwise you will be feeling like the people on the 21 st through the 24 th with no one to sell to (Hardly any sale volume at all, Newbies moved out along with a lot of the big money) As seen here:  Why would you try and draw a TA conclusion from a chart when the market was closed. I don't gamble; I make calculated investment decisions. No way I'm sending my money to either of your addresses to bet against you.
To newcomers: These guys are betting against the market. Hence this thread. Hold firm.
To newcomers: Me and ATC have been in bitcoin a lot longer than BitPriateI think anyone that has 'been around' a while would recall the mtgox hack... You clowns think you have seen an exponential rise that *must* be followed by a correction, so you are short. You are trying to do the inverse of catching a falling knife. You are doing it with a commodity that is prone to sudden exponential rises. I think that is just crazy but each to his own. I think there may be a correction it could happen seconds after I post this or in three months time after a run up to several hundred dollars. Maybe even fuelled by bearish short sellers being squeezed out time after time. I am long, with tiny sell orders all the way up to skim a little spending money off the top. I am in it for the long haul though. I held through the bubble to 32 and the crash back to 2. I will hold through worse. I see 10-100k per coin in the distant future barring catastrophe. I've been working on securing my financial future for a while, and now, it feels like I've already won. Go ahead and short though! You might get lucky! |
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I think this time he is right. Confidence is shaken. Dead cat bounce. Euphoria all over the boards, prime time for a real and prolonged shakedown imho. I'm super-bullish long term, have even taken a punt on a BFL miner. However, I've been waiting for a correction for some time now (not as long as proudhon) but 32 still hasn't been retested... Not so I can "buy cheaper" short term trading isn't really my bag. Just because I think going this high this fast seems just a bit *too* good to be true. I'm sure we will get to $100, then a $1000 and who know $10k or $100k a coin, it seems inevitable based on the fundamental paradigm changing nature of what is happening, barring the catastrophic failure scenarios. Almost as inevitable as the fact that the growth needed to get there will cause periodical insane euphoric buying, that must surely lead to hard deep corrections.... I expect exponential growth, but exponential growth of the exponent!! thats a bit much even for me  |
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What about it?  |
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When Cyprus end up one of the richest nations in the world because it switched to BTC first how much whining are all the other countries going to do about the unfairness of the early adopter advantage? |
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2013/04/22 100025022 N 0 0 1 0 - sgbett
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I thought that very same thing...
...at $35
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I'm just jealous I did not know about this in 2009 as my opinion then would not be any different to that which it is now and I would have poured a large chunk of my savings into it.
People say shit like this. Maybe its true. I *did* find out about it a long time ago. In 2010 I heard about it, and made a hlaf hearted attempt to set up a client mining, but work got in the way. I read about it again and I bought $100 worth in Feb 2011, which got me 100BTC. Seemed like nice round number. The thing is you have no idea how much of a risk it was. Take for instance the chart...  Looks familier eh! exponential growth and me buying at the top... I should bet the farm right? There was nowhere other than silk road which took it. It was widely derided (check out comments on bitcoin stories on slashdot back then). $100 was a lot of money for me at the time. I was still struggling to clear debts accrued starting a business, I owed tens of thousands of $ in back taxes. It took some real fucking nuts to risk $100 on what was basically a total punt at the time. I was buying off strangers on paypal that I met through bitcoinmarket. I was shifting money through intermediaries I'd never heard of (I am in UK) to get dollars, and they were all taking a slice. Maybe you are prescient, and knew for a fact it was going to return 6700% to date. You would have had to hold through $32 and the retreat back to $2. I couldn't do, with hindsight its easy to see that would be the best course of action. Instead I had to take profits on the way. I'd be a fool not to right? I sold around half of them at 7. Why wouldn't I!? 600% profit in 40 months... but then beat myself up when it hit 15 within days. I sold half again at 28, total fluke, because I was kicking myself when it carried on going up.... Then the painful slide. I bought often on the way down, this time I was sure, I knew it was going up, and over the months I sunk several hundred more dollars into it. But it never stopped going down... I ended up with over 200 coins at one time worth half of what I had spent. When the turnaround came it was nice, but I was always playing catchup, I was leveraged at bitcoinica, I was in the black again. I pulled the leveraged positions and left several hundred dollars sat on bitcoinica in lowball limit orders, to catch the downward spike. It never came. Instead the zhou-crew walked with my dollars. A painful reminder of the risks of this market. The block reward halving approached. Every ounce of me said the dollar price must inveitably double, but I was $1500 deep. In an experiment that could stop at any time. People seem to forget that. So I held on and dare not risk buying more. Sure enough it came, the price rose, slowly then faster. We hit $30 and stalled. I sold enough to pull out €1000. Still with all that has gone before, I beat myself up about that decision, when I know I should just be satisfied with the fact that I now have a few more coins than I started with and they cost me nothing. Now business is good and I'm not in so much debt, its not such a big deal to find money to put into BTC, but my holding is already worth several thousand dollars. AND IT COULD STILL GO TO ZERO. That's reality, that's what you go through when you find out about this thing 2 years ago, and its the reality people will go through if they find out about it tomorrow. To say, now, looking back, well I would have just put a big chunk of my savings into it back in '09. You are free to say that, but I am free to doubt it. |
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I have some coins. When the dollar value of 1 BTC rises by a multiple. I convert a percentage of my remaining BTC into fiat. If BTC collapses you get a consolation of having amassed a bit of fiat. If BTC takes over the world you didn't make the mistake of selling out early. Choose values depending on what you want in each scenario. On paper, its pretty easy to not lose. Gotta pick your values and stick to the plan though |
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GUESS: $88
for fun - it will be april 17th give or take a day, by the end of May we'll be consolidating in the 60-70 range!
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I'm sure there will be some food-for-taught headlines when this occurs Do more people price gold in grams or ounces? People might say something when one bitcoin was worth a gallon of gas or a liter of gas, but they would never make a big deal about a bitcoin being worth a tablespoon of gas. Exactly I misread post assumed it was 1oz |
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I already panic bought earlier this evening |
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I'm noticing the same types of extrapolation that were around in the mid 90s in relation to the internet. How it would take over the world, and the first people in would be the winners - and so started the stupid dot com boom (linked with that other stupid idea, the millennium bug!) that brought a whole industry to its knees in the start of the Century!
Thats because people are impatient. Thats why traders exist, because people are impatient, they want a quick buck. Investors, they buy low, spread risk and hold through panic. Buying the nasdaq (as a simple way to diversify risk amongst a bunch of tech stocks) in the mid 90's, and holding right through the bubble bursting, and the subsequent market crash of 2008 and you are still looking at ~113%-263% returns. Buying BTC at nearly any point (other than the recent ATH - still only a 10% loss if you did atm) and holding and you are up right now. Dollar cost averaging monthly since July 2010 would give you a cost basis $11.45 and thats if you were unlucky enough to pick the most expensive price every month! Even if you didn't get in at the start, and bought your first coins in june 2011 for $31.90, if you DCA'd from then til now and still were buying at the worst possible price every month your cost basis would be $16!!! Trading will give you huge profits 1 Investing will give you moderate profits. 2see Graham, Taleb etc The most important thing of all though, is that your dollar value is merely an indicator of BTC adoption/fiat devaluation. You are buying your future wealth right now for a fraction of its price, because you are lucky enough to know about it before it goes mainstream. Provided it all pans out and nothing bad happens. Assess risk and diversify accordingly!
1Some of the time 2Most of the time |
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