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No real need. How easy is it to hide a private key somewhere? A safe just tells people what's in it is valuable. Usually I'd despise security by obscurity; in this case it makes sense.
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I appreciate that you use the term HOLDER instead of HODLER, which I assume to mean you are bullish in the short/medium/long term and willing to take some amount of additional risk, but not religiously married to your position.
If this is the case, you must have an exit plan on both the top side and the bottom.
Would you care to share?
How much difference a day makes. I was holding panic bought $618 coins, but woke up today and decided that Bitcoin was going to retrace.....and dumped my coins. So much for HOLDING. But aside from that, yep, I am generally bullish. I have staggered buy-ins between $580 - $630. If these orders drop, then depending on how things shape up, I may just consider holding onto those through thick n thin, perhaps only dropping them at clear parabolic blow-offs as and when they come along. It seems that I am good at gauging trends, but tend to cut my own throat when it comes to trading. i.e. a big pile of coin bought at $480 BTC that I sold at $550 (2 minutes before 6K of buying pushed Bitcoin to $570), followed by a mixed bag of good n shit trades (but mostly shit). Had I just held, then I would have a great big cheesey grin on my face just now and have endured none of the headaches and 5 times the profits....of course, all very well saying that with hindsight. In short, I have no plans or strategies but unlike the whole of Dec, Jan, and Feb, I just no longer feel any great fear towards Bitcoin. At this point in time, I feel from here out Bitcoin is generally a good bet, give or take the odd $100 negative/positive swing or two. I don't buy any of the persisting scare stories of macro down trends still being in place and lower lows being just around the corner for Bitcoin. For me, the bottom has happened (for now) and the reversal is in the process of defining itself. Excellent news. Thank you. about that part I bolded. I had the same feeling when we hit 450 in december. I thought that was the bottom and we'd never see it again. but we did. I would not be surprised to see it again for a third time (well, technically a fourth time as it's kinda the same range as the pull-back on the run-up in november as well.) *note, I'm using the 12hr virtex CAD chart on wisdom. draw a line on stamp at 400 and you see pretty much the same thing.We'll only get there again with bad news. There's plenty of bad things that can happen in bitcoinland though, so its not unlikely. Or good news, if you believe the Ukraine theory (which I don't entirely). Putin goes in like Rambo, gets a few bare-chested shots of himself waving a Kalashnikov, woo the Russians love him. Then instead of sealing the deal, he starts talks and appears all reasonable with the West and everything goes back to normal. Happened with S. Ossetia a while back, probably with Crimea too. Much like N. Korea but Russia has one hand on our gas taps and the other on the red button, so instead of any real action we make the symbolic gesture of not going to the Sochi Paralympics. And bitcoin goes back to normal? |
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So you're saying we'll either go up or go down?
No. I was saying we will definitely go down, unless some X-Factor force comes to the market which cannot be predicted or accounted for...such as the 3K BTC buy-in bomb dropping motherfucker that was buying like crazy yesterday with no regard for getting a good price. Seems the fairy god whale never showed up. That's what I'm counting on. Only thing that makes sense. Of course, sense doesn't always come into bitcoin market dynamics, but I'm still going to expect it anyway.  |
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I'm not sure I buy the Ukraine explanation. Or the London one. I think they're just post-hoc rationalisations for a spike that may or may not have been started by a whale manipulator. (I.e. it doesn't matter if the Ukraine is actually buying loads of btc; if people *think* they are then they will anyway to get on this mythical, annoying train that I keep hearing so much about.)
Give it a few days and I guess we'll know whether it was an irrational flash in the pan or something more.
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Looks like it's finally coming off the boil... should know fairly soon. Dropping fast now but want to make sure it's not a bear trap.
I'll be happier if prices head back down to where they "should" be (where "should" is defined by what I can understand/explain).
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I don't see this rally as sustainable. Good news, but not sustainable to this degree. It was chaotic and panicky, not an upward correction that happened for good reason.
I also think we are on a hiding to nothing trying to understand it. Probably combination of all of the things discussed: Ukraine, London, whale manipulation - all kicking off irrational panic-buyers. Not the news itself, but people (like us...) trying to make sense of it and jumping in so as not to miss the boat, as they saw it.
Either way, it seems to have confirmed 710 resistance for now.
Thoughts?
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Thanks. Possibly I misread the spec - I am not knowledgeable about gambling, but would be happy to write content on my btc related areas of interest for some publication Saw your piece in the Guardian, nice artIicle. |
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Mat, don't get back into the old paranoid habits. This is not, or at least not predominantly Ukraine news driving up the price. Doesn't matter how long the current upwards motion will last, but for now it's clear it has some power, right? The first bit was plain old buying pressure and confidence in the price level above 400, then above 500, and the remaining meters... well, they're pure old "I hope I don't miss the train" reactions of the market. Feedback loops. Circlejerk. Don't fall into the newbie trap of having to explain everything that happens in terms of world events. I'm not saying to ignore them, but whatever the events are, they need to fall on fertile ground, and by the looks of it, that's some mighty fertile ground right now. (went long earlier today, btw. took an unpleasant hit to my total btc, but nothing too bad.)
Thanks for the kind of advice.... We are both agreed that the market was looking stagnant, weak, and set for another leg down to confirm a low volume higher low, right? So where is this fucking mass of buying power coming from? Where are all these massive bidding walls coming from? This is tens of millions of USD buying right at upper extremities of a highly depressed market in amongst a shit-storm of very scary Bitcoin news. Bottoms do not normally play out like this! Granted, it 'might' be some megawhales looking to trigger another parabolic surge into Bitcoin, but would you not agree, that this has timed perfectly with the very first eastern Europe business hours, on the first banking day of the week after Putin marched his soldiers into the Crimea region of Ukraine? Is that right? I thought things went crazy at 4pm UK time (where I am) which is start of office hours in America? I was wondering whether things would crash again at midnight my time, 8 hours after the rally started. Have I missed something/screwed up my timezones? |
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Who wants me to "use the force" and take it up to $850?
Let's see a show of karma ...
1NPtPGPXAQRk8M5AYx7wCcEocJK41oAnQo
Ok, good effort... but no. On another note, this started at 4pm UK time, which is 9am somewhere-in-America time. I'm wondering whether outside of office hours/waking hours wherever this rally started, those who drove it will take their profits and the price will dip again. Guess I won't know until I wake up. |
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HOW DID YOU ?!
How did you what? Some way of $850, so this far it's just luck that there happened to be a bounce. Until we hit $850, you've got nothing. I'll give it to you for $800, just to be fair, since it's an impressive coincidence. |
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Likely a combination of things given the news today. Expecting quite a dip after the spike, though - what about you?
Might be a post spike dip. Might go lower than my panic buy at $618, but I don't care. This upsurge turns all bearish arguments and technicals on their head. But that is me now 100% bullish long term. Have been saying for days that I just haven't been getting the same fear of Bitcoin that I previously had and have actually been feeling positive about for the first time in a damn long time. Still, the intellectual doubts lingered that we must surely retest the $400 range before the bottom can be confirmed.....but it don't look like it is going to happen. I am now 100% Bull at least for the short-medium term.P.S What news? I was expecting quite a bit lower than $618, too, if only briefly. |
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Likely a combination of things given the news today. Expecting quite a dip after the spike, though - what about you?
Might be a post spike dip. Might go lower than my panic buy at $618, but I don't care. This upsurge turns all bearish arguments and technicals on their head. But that is me now 100% bullish long term. Have been saying for days that I just haven't been getting the same fear of Bitcoin that I previously had and have actually been feeling positive about for the first time in a damn long time. Still, the intellectual doubts lingered that we must surely retest the $400 range before the bottom can be confirmed.....but it don't look like it is going to happen. I am now 100% Bull at least for the short-medium term.P.S What news? UK tax situation, plus Ukraine, possibly. Apparently the Bitcoin Foundation is considering relocating to London. That in itself isn't directly relevant, but it suddenly shows renewed optimism about bitcoin after the Gox fiasco. It's a good news story after a run of crap. |
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Likely a combination of things given the news today. Expecting quite a dip after the spike, though - what about you?
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Technicals aside, some good regulatory news from the UK might finally be improving sentiment.
London looking to be a frontrunner in Bitcoin would be awesome news... it'll be interesting to see what happens now, hopefully startups can blossom at least with the VAT news. Excellent news. I bet some Russians are buying today too, as well as USD. |
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Technicals aside, some good regulatory news from the UK might finally be improving sentiment.
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I heard 800 is comming easly! hehehe this thread topic is funny. I heard that too. Never from anyone who had a clue what they were talking about though. |
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Big changes often happen following thin volumes/nothing moving much. I guess it only takes one big buy/sell to push sentiment one way or another. So yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if something decisive turned up soon.
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Really? Bitstamp volumes are extremely low and prices down just a few dollars. Seems like the market is waiting for some news or a cue of some sort. Could well drift further down but I'm not seeing it today.
Probably because everyone is withdrawing, so less traders. The ones who held btc would have to sell first! |
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Really? Bitstamp volumes are extremely low and prices down just a few dollars. Seems like the market is waiting for some news or a cue of some sort. Could well drift further down but I'm not seeing it today.
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