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2441  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Why I think the crypto market will be worth about $6 trillion by 2019 on: January 28, 2018, 03:41:01 PM
Here's why I think $6 trillion is completely reasonable:
1. Wall Street hasn't jumped in yet.

Not sure about that, it does seem like parts of Wall Street already have skin in the game. However institutional investors are still missing. I don't expect them to enter the market until the market cap and price stability has increased though. Once they're in we would have a pretty solid price base.


2. Big business still has its toes in the water.
3. There's widespread and mainstream awareness,  but very little mainstream adoption.

Fully agreed.


4. We're going to see at least one governments currency collapse soon, with that nation switching to cryptos. That will begin a widespread acceptance of cryptos as legitimate.

I don't see this happening anytime soon. Government currency collapse maybe, but I think an official switch to cryptos is rather unlikely. I could see unofficial use of cryptocurrencies by the general populace though, however not until transaction fees have been curbed by improved scalability.


5. The trend in the general population is anti central authority aka. big banks, governments, big corporations. Look at brexit, Trump, the rise of nationalism against the EU, etc.  Cryptocurrencies are the embodiment of anti authority and giving the people more control over their wealth. [...]

Voting for Trump to fight the establishment is like buying into Ripple as a cryptocurrency. It may seem like a good idea to some, but is ultimately a misled approach at solving a misunderstood problem.

Personal convictions aside, I see very little anti authoritarian and decentralized thinking in the world. Otherwise people would actually move away from all the central authorities that dominate their lifes instead of complaining about politics by posting on Facebook from their iPhones that they paid for with their VISA when they bought it from Amazon. If anything the rise of nationalism has shown that the world has become more conservative and protectionist.
2442  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bigger theft than MtGox - Bitcoin rises 5% on: January 28, 2018, 02:45:41 PM
Interestingly enough the NEM price doesn't care about it either though. It really seems like traders have run out of fucks to give.

It was dealt with very rapidly. Their customers were told they'd be made whole shortly after it happened.

Interesting, glad to hear that.


The coins were immediately tagged and all exchanges were informed. They basically became dead coins within a few hours. [...]

I honestly don't know how to feel about that. Don't get me wrong, it's good to know that the hackers won't make much of a profit. Still I always get mixed feelings when coins / tokens are being marked and effectively pulled of the market, questioning the fungibility of the currency as such and how free a money it really is. Same holds true for Bitcoin and all other transparent blockchains of course.
2443  Economy / Economics / Re: Can decentralized technology help the housing market? on: January 28, 2018, 02:33:29 PM
Is it possible to have a platform which lists all property + allows comments relating to the property to be associated? Also sales values and ability to just attach an offer if the owner were to ever be interested in selling.... does this make sense ?

In the past I think stuff like this has been illegal? but I think it could help housing market. You never would actually have to list a property for sale as such, you'd just visit this platform and in theory you'd see a range of offers currently on the table for your property (obviously subject to viewing).   I know people have to survey a house etc etc.  The purpose of the site/platform is purely for the intial meeting of potential seller and potential buyer - something estate agents charge for.

Funny you should mention this, just the other day I've been thinking about how real estate is in need of disruption. I was not even thinking about a decentralized solution but rather how awesome it would be to have a public database that you could query according to your renting or investment needs.

Alas, not even such a database exists, not where I live anyway. And here seems to be the heart of the problem -- real estate is handled very differently from country to country, from city to city even. Real estate agencies offer very little public information of the assets they are trying to sell and from a business perspective probably rightfully so. It's a very opaque ecosystem were trust and personal interaction is still key, even as far as giving out information is concerned. Maybe in other places there's more transparency, but I'm sure most cities are in the hands of private real estate agencies that will try to protect their data as crypto enthusiasts protect their private keys.

That being said, I'd love to see such a platform. I'm just afraid it would be incredibly hard to free real estate of the firm grip of already established agencies while still adhering to local regulations. AirBnB has found its niche in that holiday rentals are more profitable and some regulatory loopholes can be taken advantage of, not sure if the same could be applied to everyday life real estate as well.
2444  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bigger theft than MtGox - Bitcoin rises 5% on: January 28, 2018, 01:49:42 PM
Well, I guess that means we are reaching a good stability.  Even when a very big theft larger than MtGox comes, nobody gives a shit and the value of the network goes up 5%.  I'd say the days of big panic are almost over.  Now if we could just figure out what to do about the $1.5 Billion Tether problem.

The theft is only larger than MtGox if you peg the price to 2013/14 Bitcoin valuations. The value of these coins has appreciated considerably since then. Remember that Bitcoins were stolen, not USD. If someone were to pull a heist like MtGox nowadays I think it would still have a noticable impact, although probably not as much as Gox back in the day, given the variety of exchanges available today.

What to do with the USDT problem? Sell them for BTC of course Tongue

In all seriousness though, if people were to move out of Tether completely and stopped using the corresponding trading pairs that would be more or less the end of it, no? The only thing you can do is educate and warn the trading community of the dangers of USDT. Everything else is moot, because what are going to do about it? Regulate it?


It is the biggest hack in history but the coins they lost is NEM tokens and not bitcoin and so is the reason may be there is no change in the market [...]

Interestingly enough the NEM price doesn't care about it either though. It really seems like traders have run out of fucks to give.

2445  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Bitcoin and Tor relays on: January 28, 2018, 12:23:34 AM
I was at a Bitcoin Meetup where the speaker said that one of the arguments for smaller blocks was in order to allow onion routing for bitcoin transactions. These connections need to be within the 1MB size.

I don't quite understand what he means. Would somebody mind clarifying? Huh


Not sure how onion routing comes into play in regards to smaller blocks, but the basic rationale for smaller blocks is the following:

1) Smaller blocks mean smaller blockchain means less bandwidth required to sync network state across nodes

2) Less bandwidth required means it's easier to run a full node

3) The more full nodes there are, the better the connectivity between nodes

4) The better the connectivity between nodes, the harder it becomes to isolate or block off parts of the network

5) The harder it is to isolate or block off parts of network, the smaller the risk of government forces intervening


The TOR network itself is rather slow and limited in terms of bandwidth. I guess the speaker was referring to it being easier to run a full Bitcoin node on TOR with smaller blocks, rather than with big ones.


In general onion routing refers to the practice of encrypting network traffic in a way that makes it impossible for a single node to derive origin or destination of a network request. I'm not aware of any hard limits in that regard, but I'm by far no TOR expert. Note that SegWit blocks can reach up to 4MB in practice, so it's probably more a question of "keeping the blocks as small as possible" rather than "keep the blocks at 1MB or less".
2446  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is becoming Antifragile. on: January 27, 2018, 08:05:34 PM
Whats a difference the latest big crytpo hack in Japan has had almost no effect on BTC compared to MTGOX that many say caused the massive bear market we saw in BTC, admitedly BTC was already low but still I think Bitcoin takes the knocks and grows stronger with every blow i think.

Bitcoin always was antifragile, otherwise it would have been long dead by now.

I think the lack of impact on BTC's price level goes to show that by now the exchange ecosystem has become fairly healthy. Keep in mind that MtGox was the largest exchange by far back in the day. It was Bitcoin's single point of failure and in hindsight pretty much amateur hour. Nowadays not only the quality and security of exchanges has vastly improved, but there's also a wide selection of exchanges available; so the shut down of a single exchange does not matter as much. The exchange market has become de-centralized, so to speak and Bitcoin is stronger because of it.


I honestly think the whole world governement system could ban Bitcoin at this point and it would dip and recover. Bitcoin is becoming Antifragile...

Not sure if a world wide ban of Bitcoin would be all that recoverable, but Bitcoin would definitely still find its niche. Nonetheless it's indeed nothing to worry about, as such a ban would require all nations of the world to work together. And when was the last time the governments of the world agreed on anything?
2447  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Lightning Questions on: January 27, 2018, 08:58:58 AM
Awesome stuff. So the person opening the channel is the only one paying the fees?
If that's so that is going to be great.

I'd want to eventually figure it out and implement it on eCommerce solutions

Yes. Opening and closing channels are both just on-chain Bitcoin transactions -- like sending coins, but with a different script obviously -- for which the regular transaction fees apply. Once a channel is open you only need to pay a negligible fee to each hop along the route of your payment.


Is there a way to run lightning without running a full bitcoin node?
I want to test a few things without having to use up a lot of bandwidth and space

Not sure about mainnet, but you can try the Eclair testnet android client or the HTLC.me testnet web client. Both are rather simplified in their functionality though, ie. HTLC.me hides opening / closing payment channels from the user and Eclair can only send, but not receive Lightning transactions. From what I've gathered so far you currently have to run a full node yourself to securely receive Lightning transactions.
2448  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Bitcoins and Tax in Austria on: January 25, 2018, 04:02:48 PM
[...]

Last question as you seem to be relatively educated (more than me anyway) on Austrian tax. I've actually lived my life in Australia and lodging tax information is done in October due to the financial year being July 30th to June 1st. When is tax reporting meant to be done in Austria haha.

I'm a freelancer that does his own bookkeeping so by now I've been navigating Austrian tax forms for quite a while. Luckily only a fraction of tax forms is relevant to me and I have a tax advisor to see me through.

An Australian living in Austria? Sounds like the beginning of a typo joke Grin

About tax reporting: Unless you're lending out coins on the likes of Poloniex it's likely that only income tax will apply to you.

The end of the financial year is December 31st to January 1st. For handing in your income tax reports there are two deadlines:

1) 30th of April when filing old school paper forms

2) 30th of June when filing online via FinanzOnline

I'd definitely recommend going with option 2) as it's more convenient. However you'll have to register for FinanzOnline first which will require personal identification via mail (Ident.Brief).

Note that if you have a tax advisor they are usually able to push back that deadline for you.

For reference regarding tax report deadlines (German, sorry):
https://www.bmf.gv.at/steuern/selbststaendige-unternehmer/einkommensteuer/est-einkommensteuererklaerungspflicht.html#Erkl_rungsfrist

FinanzOnline:
https://finanzonline.bmf.gv.at/
2449  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: France, Germany to make joint bitcoin regulation proposal at G20 summit on: January 25, 2018, 12:01:09 AM
After China, S Korea, India, now it's France and Germany. Won't be long before US jumps in too. Not necessarily a bad thing if it only targets illegal activities& scams. What do you guys think?
As long as they don't want to ban, it's fine for bitcoin. It's good idea to stop scammers and to protect people from being scammed with a brand new thing they don't know about...
Hope that they don't want to ban it, because if they make bitcoin illegal, they won't be able to tax the incomes coming from bitcoin related businesses. So as long as they need the taxes bitcoin has hope to be 'just' regulated and not banned.

France and Germany know better than to try banning cryptocurrencies. By now most governments are aware of the possible benefits of cryptocurrencies and will act with circumspection. Not sure what will change though, most exchanges that are connected to the European banking network operate pretty much by the book already. At least compared to what apparently went on with some of the Chinese and South Korean exchanges.

Regardless of what happens though, I doubt it will be of much use against scammers. Scammers will always find unwitting victims and not even the European Union can regulate bad decision making.


I don't understand this regulation thing. Are they talking about exchanges? Because seeing as how btc is digital, can't see what they want to regulate.

I guess exchanges, mostly. Maybe they want to start consolidating the legal frameworks for cryptocurrencies as well though, making it easier for businesses to internationally navigate the current hodge podge of crypto law and lack thereof.
2450  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Blockchain technology or pure speculation? on: January 24, 2018, 11:24:57 PM
Are you interested in BTC for the mere fact that the price has been going up since its inception and you think it will enable to make a huge profit or you are interested because you know that the technology behind BTC (blockchain) will change the way the financial world works?

Came for the profits, stayed for the technology. First I completely dismissed Bitcoin. Then its price increase made me re-evaluate my assumptions. And then I got utterly hooked on the technology and its ecosystem. Once I understood what Bitcoin was all about it was the first technology to excite me for years. So I got in. And now I'm here. Watching either one of mankind's greatest achievements or biggest flukes unfold.

I have to say though that the blockchain is one of the least interesting aspect of cryptocurrencies. Reaching decentralized consensus despite conflicting incentives is what makes it revolutionary. Stripping the consensus aspect apparently makes it easier to repackage and sell however, not sure if this way of thinking is going to lead anywhere useful though.
2451  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Bitcoins and Tax in Austria on: January 24, 2018, 04:32:24 PM
Hey there, thanks for this information it was very helpful! My question would be what kind of taxes am i subject to in the following example:

Mon 22.01.2018 - i purchase 1 ETH with 1000 Euro
Tue 23.01.2018 - i purchase lets say 60 OMG with that 1 ETH
Mon 05.02.2018 - i then want to diversify as OMG has appreciated and convert 30 OMG back to 0.7 ETH
Tue 06.02.2018 - i use the 0.7 ETH to purchase 4 LTC (at this point i own 30 OMG and 4 LTC)
Mon 04.03.2019 - after a year of holding i decide to convert my 30 OMG and 4 LTC back into 6000 ETH as i would need ETH to exchange back into Euro. I cash out with 600,000 Euro.

I have made some trades where ive had to change from one currency to ETH just so i can purchase a different one which i plan to hold for over a year, am not sure what taxes i need to keep an eye out for.. Luckily ive been keeping a decent record of trades using a tracking app but if i need to calculate profits/losses for every exchange i think my mind will overload hahah.

Honestly, at that point I'd just get myself a tax advisor. At best they help keeping the Finanzamt off your back, at worst they can tell you which forms to fill out.

As for your example:

The last step seems pretty straightforward -- OMG and LTC have been held for a year and are thus tax-free, buying and selling the ETH would likely be taxable since you didn't hold the ETH long enough, however since no profits have been made, there's no taxes to be paid (Note that additional income of I think less than EUR 600,- does not need to be taxed, so small Euro profits that could occur while moving OMG to ETH to EUR are likely negligible).

However I have absolutely no idea how your third step, converting OMG back to ETH for a profit would be taxed. I assume that this is a taxable event (ie. income tax would apply for your profits) however I have no idea how this profit would be calculated. I guess the EUR value of 30 OMG at the time you sell it minus the EUR value of 30 OMG at the time you buy it? Would be consistent with how mining is taxed, but seems kinda weird when applied to trading. Unfortunately the only examples I've come across so far only cover trading between fiat and crypto. I personally don't daytrade alts, so I have no experience in this regard.

Keeping track of your trades is a good start however. Make sure you can also proof your transactions to the Finanzamt however that may be. I guess blockchain explorer links and trade history records as provided by the exchanges themselves should be sufficient, but I have yet to find out.

Maybe ask the guys from the German local boards. There are some Austrians over there as well and either way, Austrian tax law regarding cryptos is pretty close to Germany's.
2452  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why Is Bitcoin Valuable? on: January 23, 2018, 04:25:36 PM
What is Censorship Resistance and Why Would It Make Bitcoin Valuable?

Cash being an exception, payments usually run through central payment processors such as PayPal, VISA or your local bank.

This works fine, until it doesn't. PayPal is known for more or less randomly freezing merchant accounts, essentially locking them out of their money. Credit Card providers such as VISA have blocked payments in the past -- look up what happened to Wikileaks as an example. Local banks can go bust during bank runs and shut down accounts if they find your transaction suspicious -- whatever that may mean.

Nothing of the above apply to Bitcoin. Bitcoin takes the power and responsibility away from third parties and puts it back in the hand of the actual owner. Hence it being censorship resistance, an attribute that has been rather unusual for a currency -- until now.
2453  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Lightning network? on: January 23, 2018, 12:37:21 PM
lightning network is not exactly something that is implemented one day. it is like a protocol which is already there and now there are applications being built based on it.

it is like asking when will bitcoin be implemented! bitcoin protocol is already there, and many programs are built to use it such as bitcoin core, electrum,....

currently the L network is up and running with 101 nodes and 229 channels,
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2796578.msg28589053#msg28589053
these "programs" that i talked about are still in testing phase but you can start using them for testing and contribute to their development.
Lightning Network Daemon https://github.com/lightningnetwork/lnd
a Lightning Network implementation in C https://github.com/ElementsProject/lightning
Lightning Network desktop application https://github.com/LN-Zap/zap-desktop
and a lot more.

I wonder when this L network can massively be adopted to give ease to its users? And what are the problems hindering these changes?

I would say ease of use and stability mostly.

Ease of use because this whole concept of payment channels is still fairly new and developers need to find a proper way to package the details of opening / closing a channel into a practicable user experience.

Stability in that there's probably still a lot of edge cases out there that need some testing to be done, otherwise we'd have people lose their coins on a regular basis. Not irrecoverably lost, mind you, but likely in a way that would require a multitude of technical steps that you can't expect from the average user. Even without people losing coins there's still aspects such as routing and connectivity to which a lack of stability is detrimental.
2454  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Best Time To Buy Bitcoin!! on: January 22, 2018, 08:16:51 PM
"Never try to catch a falling knife."

Is an advice that I regularly ignore.

I've already been buying back some of the coins that I sold on the way up. Will be continue doing so if we drop further.

If Bitcoin drops further without any chance of recovery, I worst case cut myself short on some profits. If we recover at one point in time, I'll have gained some. I believe the latter is more likely to happen than the first. Might take 5 weeks, might take 5 years... doesn't matter to me, the fundamentals haven't changed, I'm in it for the long run and no one ever went broke making a profit Wink
2455  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin intrinsic value on: January 22, 2018, 04:21:44 PM
Intrinsic value is a difficult topic when it comes to currency. Arguably no modern form of money has intrinsic value. The intrinsic value of monies in the past was when people still used fungible commodities such as grains as currency.

If you really stretch the definition of what could be seen as inrinsic value, you could say:

Bitcoin's intrinsic value is that it enables global, permissionless, trustless, immutable and counterfeit-proof transactions in a way that is comparably cheap and fast.

Fiat's intrinsic value is in that it enables some of the above (unlike cryptocurrencies, trust is required and counterfeiting is a problem), but you have to choose between transactions being either permissionless (ie. cash) or cheap and fast (ie. bank transfers).

If the ability to enable trade is not to be seen as an intrinsic value, then both fiat and cryptocurrencies are worthless in this regard. Same goes for gold, in that matter, because...

Good point Hellobx, however fiat currencies $, £ etc are normally backed by gold reserves, I accept that countries can and have gone bust but generally other countries bail them out. [...]

...what's the intrinsic value of gold? The current gold valuations far outweigh its technical applications. If a system at its core relies on countries bailing out other countries that have gone bust you already got a ticking time bomb at hand.
2456  Economy / Exchanges / Re: BTC LENDING on: January 22, 2018, 03:03:14 PM
I have a question on this, how does lender ensure that they would get their coin back? Also for example I borrowed a loan then i tried to make a trade and unfortunately didn't succeed, how could he bounce back from this lose?

That's what the margin calls are for. Margin calls are enforced by the trading engine automatically canceling any losing positions before the balance of the margin trader reaches below zero. Short of the trading engine failing due to a software bug your coins should be safe from the lending party defaulting on you. The systemic risk of the respective exchange getting hacked or... getting "hacked"... remains of course.
2457  Economy / Exchanges / Re: BTC LENDING on: January 22, 2018, 02:26:14 PM
Loan demands are made by people trading on margin, ie. borrowing coins to either short them or to use them for leveraged trading.

Loan offers is people lending coins to margin traders as mentioned above, offering them for a certain duration (at least 2 days) for a predefined interest rate (defined per day).

If your interest rate is too high, no one will take a loan from you, as you will get undercut by other market participants. If your loan offer gets accepted, you will then get a daily yield based on your preset interest rate. Your coins will get returned to you either a) after the preset duration has passed, b) the margin trader closes their position or c) the margin trader gets hit by a margin call and has thus their position liquidated.
2458  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Regulation / g20 / price on: January 21, 2018, 06:31:45 PM
Regulation doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing. I don't know about France, but Germany has done good work so far providing a legal framework for Bitcoin related businesses to operate in. If the result of such talks is a better, border-crossing legal framework for putting the Bitcoin economy on more solid legal footing, all the better.


However I'm pretty sure that any speculation is moot due to this:

[...] the G20 has more urgent problems...
2459  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: What's a Utility Token? on: January 21, 2018, 06:20:11 PM
When we talk about our ICO, we get this question very often, particularly from those who are new in the crypto-world and have chosen us as a first ICO.

In case you want to know:

A utility token represents access to a future product or service. When you buy a utility token, you are buying your “right” to use a service that’s being developed by a company or start-up, once it’s finished and launched. An ICO for utility tokens is often used to raise funds for the development of a project.

Can dividend also be counted as utility?

If the utility of a token is merely to pay a dividend, then it's not a utility token. It's pretty much an unregulated security at that point. At least I wouldn't expect the SEC to classify such a token as a utility token but rather as a security.
2460  Other / Off-topic / Re: Ethics in business on: January 21, 2018, 05:18:45 PM
Is PONZI a non-ethical business?
It's only because of money that people forget about business ethics.
Or business do not need ethics?

...a ponzi scheme is neither ethical, nor a business. You can run it like a business, but that doesn't make it one.

Businesses do need ethics. If they have questionable ethics, they should at least run on solid principles.
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