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This fall has been due, if this really is it, so far the volume is very small. we will see a lot more volume tonight, where will it take us, 550? 500? 380?
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I think many might misunderstand this as compromising the security of transactions which is not happening.
The question is how many realize this may be a good buying opportunity if panic spreads.
Ive heard that this problem is nothing new. It seems like the news serves two purposes, to reject responsibility of peoples coins, and it has been engineered to cause the latest crash. this will be an important capitulation for many large players. So sad that the currency is so young and the news is already terribly manipulated. |
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"Bitcoin transactions are subject to a design issue that has been largely ignored, while known to at least a part of the Bitcoin core developers and mentioned on the BitcoinTalk forums. This defect, known as "transaction malleability" makes it possible for a third party to alter the hash of any freshly issued transaction without invalidating the signature, hence resulting in a similar transaction under a different hash. Of course only one of the two transactions can be validated. However, if the party who altered the transaction is fast enough, for example with a direct connection to different mining pools, or has even a small amount of mining power, it can easily cause the transaction hash alteration to be committed to the blockchain."
excuses, excuses, excuses....
lets discuss what going on here.
is this new? is this valid? is this a good excuse?
will this scare investors?
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Mark my words, we will see btc to under $100 by friday... MT GOX will announce they are halting trading indefinitely. Be prepared to buy low if you can!
Dream on, why would people e.g. from Bitstamp sell all their coins? If your neighbours company goes bankrupt because he was an idiot do you close yours too? They dont need to sell all their coins for it to fall low..... depends what the mood is, do investors want to catch a falling knife? bitcoin needs to find natural support. I believe we could hit 350, before reversing sharply. |
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It seems to me the sentiment has changed a lot! I wasn't around at the start of 2013, got into bitcoin mid 2013. But I believe that most people speculating on the price in early 2013 would not have been thinkings numbers anywhere near $1000 at the end of the year and they would have been laughed at or ridiculed if they did mention it.
Now every second person talks of $10000 like a real possibility end of 2014, in a way does that mean that number is conservative? Haha not to sure about the last part, but it is interesting.
when I invested in october, I was hoping for $500 BTC by july 2014..... lol sentiment of 10k bitcoin either means we will significantly exceed that number, or that we will not approach it (any time soon) Honestly, I think it means the latter. but hey, shits about to hit the fan all over the world. who knows. |
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It has been adressed already probably, but not fully.
What do you think, will be the reason for another BIG price swings, i mean getting bitcoin to say 5000 or 10 000 USD per 1 BTC.
Im slowly worried that it wont be reached this year. The price rose from 120 i think to 1100 mainly and only due to china... thats almost 1000 USD in nominal terms, and it meant that the whole big IT positive country as china moved into bitcoin... Im really worried that such big event may not appear in the near future... And if bitcoin wants to reach 5000 or 10 000 this year i really belive that there should be some big event pushing it up. Even without the event i belive bitcoin can make it to the 10 000 but it will be a long and steady road, for year, 2,3...
I think that even wallmart announcing acceptance or amazon wont be enough to push it to the 5000 not speaking about 10 000. Be realist poeple i dont care abotu logarythmic grow function or something... I took the whole great country of china to rise bitcoin by 1000... So if you want to rise it in a spike (and not over a long term) about 4000 you will need something really big...
I belive only some economic crashes would push the price so high...
whats your inteligent (!!!) take on this (not just "dude, it will get there, i FEEL it)...
I think that the technology of bitcoin will not support a price of 10k until 2015. but I do think that when the stock bubble pops, market cap of 500billion is chump change, there are few exits, and they will all be used. also, if the market cap was boosted by speculators to 500B, that would accelerate the adoption of its use. every day smart investors are learning about bitcoin, many will come to understand it fully, and will no doubt buy some. Fun facts, there are 1500 billionaires in the world. there are 12 million millionaires in the world. millionaires have on average 3 million each. billionaires have a net worth of 90 trillion. 10k bitcoin will come easily. |
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many people including myself are reporting unusually large delays in depositing bitcoin into BTCe this morning. The frustration seems high.
This, is a fine measure of sentiment. looks like we have an incoming flow of sellers.
nobody sells more erratically than a seller who is late to the party.
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In a stable economy of large scale the average is effective at representing steady organic growth if too many speculators are not present. We can see the average with our eyes, we only use the tool for precision. I dont find it hard to understand why an average could be considered to be a 'fair' price. sometimes a fair price is the best you can ask for.
But I would agree that the coming crash could have unexpected potential, regardless of the fundamental innovation of bitcoin. I really do believe that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next man will pay, at this stage in the game. speculators are more likely to watch and see than place large, risky orders at 500. The larger speculators would know, never catch a falling knife. If the price is well tested after such a crash the reversal would then be swift.
There are a lot of happy go lucky speculators that are likely subject to panic at this stage - and not enough commercial demand.
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Nice forecase yesterday Nathanael  hit 750 on Bitstamp. |
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- I don't see 266 to be broken, and my belief is backed by the two previous bubbles (ie. not much).
- It could go to low 300s if you ask me, which is good value if you have excess fiat.
- A double bottom in around 382 seems quite realistic.
- 500 will be broken almost surely, before we can move up.
As regards bid depth, can you see that Gox bid depth above 500 has gone down to 1/3 of what it was? Bid depth does not mean much because part of it is manipulation and the other part belongs to people whose considerations change along with price.
do you think that gox bit depth has any meaning left at this point in time? perhaps BTCe or bitstamp would give a better indication. I wonder - can one view those big orders down there. I cant on my account. |
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The only regulation you need is the only one that's just and valid -- enforcement of the rule of law. Bitcoin's made it this far without regulatory hogwash, and it can exist forever without it.
But whose 'rule of law'? I'm not suggesting regulation by a single government but I do think the BTCFoundation should set up some sort of regulatory framework for exchanges etc to provide newcomers with a level of assurance. That is, we (the people who support and cherish crypto) should do it ourselves before others impose it. Anyway, i don't want to hijack chessnuts thread with reg talk...just my 2cents. thats ok, it's notmy thread =P Im pretty sure bitcoin simply cannot be regulated, people using bitcoin may be regulated by government, but by the bitcoin foundation? they would be laughed at and probably unpopular with their followers. |
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I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?
The 200 daily SMA average sits at $425 and is increasing by about $3 a day. We have not been below it since early 2012. 2 years ago. When the price was $4. I do not see us going below that. Waves or no waves. yeah... waves or no waves..... Im not a superstitious EW trader - but it does work particularly well alongside a good measure of sentiment. they say that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next guy will pay for it. I think that is true, so a slip always has the potential to be quite severe right? Im just thinking that a spike below the last wave to 420 or so would not surprise me at all, and it is consistent with EWA. on the log chart, would it surprise me if it went to 250...... no. and that is also consistent with the tendency to revisit the fourth wave price range. what im going at is that we are expecting 450-500, so what's in the way of 350 really. nothing much price wise. What is below 450 is resistance and a fuck ton of money waiting to enter the market place. Can you see the orders? where do you get that info? |
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I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?
The 200 daily SMA average sits at $425 and is increasing by about $3 a day. We have not been below it since early 2012. 2 years ago. When the price was $4. I do not see us going below that. Waves or no waves. yeah... waves or no waves..... Im not a superstitious EW trader - but it does work particularly well alongside a good measure of sentiment. they say that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next guy will pay for it. I think that is true, so a slip always has the potential to be quite severe right? Im just thinking that a spike below the last wave to 420 or so would not surprise me at all, and it is consistent with EWA. on the log chart, would it surprise me if it went to 250...... no. and that is also consistent with the tendency to revisit the fourth wave price range. what im going at is that we are expecting 450-500, so what's in the way of 350 really. nothing much price wise. |
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I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?
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The Chart says a correction is needed down to 300-400. sorry. it's totally healthy. save your balls up and buy more.
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Post Elliot wave counts and predictions for the short, medium or long term. Please include charts and short description. Please, NO Elliot Wave bashing. Leave that for another thread. Here is my thoughts: Long Term. Gox (sorry I was using Gox when I made this) Shown in Log Scale. The targets are not meant to be accurate, but just to show a count for "the big picture".  Medium Term. Gox. Again, the target is not to be completely accurate, just to demonstrate that we are on wave C. Although, the target in this picture is a 100% copy of the length of wave A, which is a common target for C waves.  Short Term. Bitstamp. Here are my targets for the current wave we are on in wave C. These targets are based on common ratios for wave 5's. I also anticipate an extended wave 5, as its common when emotions get high with Bitcoin, and I feel like that will happen.  Some of these targets also match previous support levels:  Here are links to the trading view chart above to follow LIVE Stamp: https://www.tradingview.com/v/vYcIu4uA/Gox: https://www.tradingview.com/v/Yy9UKJdV/Edit: Spelling  Nathanael, the fourth wave following a third wave should bottom within the price range of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. Do you think Wave C can reach $250?? I hope so..... cheeeeep |
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I'm going to sound crazy attempting to explain my thoughts on this...
I have only one issue with BTC predictions and charts like these...
The size of the Bitcoin marketplace is so small and the wealth so concentrated that it can be manipulated relatively easily. I don't think the majority of the market has shifted from Bullish to Bearish even when the trend indicates that it has. I think even though the trend is down it's more accurately an indicator of the mentality of a much smaller group of people who are simply taking profits from the last period of rapid growth at a faster rate than people are able to buy. The marketplace is growing extremely quickly but it seems like every downward price movement has been started by a small series of large sell orders. The good news outweighs the bad news by orders of magnitude and the price still slides.
I think it's simply a redistribution of wealth but the bullish mentality is still strongly supported by a much greater number of people who simply didn't have the opportunity to buy at a lower price. More institutional money is needed to increase the liquidity of the marketplace so these sell-offs have less of an impact...
well the sentiment is hard to measure any day, but think of all the good news we've had for months now that hasnt budged the market upwards. That is the ultimate test of sentiment. The speculators have pumped the price too high for the commercial buyers, and there are not any speculators left to buy, not at this price. This slipping of prices is characteristic of a C wave, and I think we will all soon sober up to a new fair price of 400-500. (but not for long!) I think there are plenty of speculators left to buy who are sitting on the sidelines watching and it's much less a factor of price than it is of risk; both financial risk and potentially even criminal risk for large investors. The financial world today is completely dependent on rules. They're crippled with existing regulations to the point that they can't even invest in Bitcoin until the rules are written and explained for them. This is what happens when a nation gives so much power to a central authority to regulate trade. It's autonomous and unnatural not to mention anti-capitalistic... It seems like the sentiment of the major Bitcoin holders is driving this marketplace. I'd rather look at the number of non-zero wallets created daily than the price points because in my opinion it's a better indicator as to the health of the marketplace as a whole and not just the sentiment/greed of a few who have thousands of coins to sell at random. It just seems like the Bitcoin marketplace is too small to directly relate movement predictions using the same tools and indicators that can be accurately used in a larger market. Maybe I'm wrong, but it just seems like Bitcoin price trends will change on the whims of a few major players. I agree, plenty of speculators left to buy, but not at this price. Speculators are very nervous about this kind of asset. they dont want to catch a falling knife, and they don't want to buy high. when they say a bitcoin is only worth what the next guy will pay for it, they are 100% right. Thats why a down swing could really scare off investors. Yet even if it fell to 300, I dare say that bitcoin is not worth that at this stage. The support is that much. |
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I'm going to sound crazy attempting to explain my thoughts on this...
I have only one issue with BTC predictions and charts like these...
The size of the Bitcoin marketplace is so small and the wealth so concentrated that it can be manipulated relatively easily. I don't think the majority of the market has shifted from Bullish to Bearish even when the trend indicates that it has. I think even though the trend is down it's more accurately an indicator of the mentality of a much smaller group of people who are simply taking profits from the last period of rapid growth at a faster rate than people are able to buy. The marketplace is growing extremely quickly but it seems like every downward price movement has been started by a small series of large sell orders. The good news outweighs the bad news by orders of magnitude and the price still slides.
I think it's simply a redistribution of wealth but the bullish mentality is still strongly supported by a much greater number of people who simply didn't have the opportunity to buy at a lower price. More institutional money is needed to increase the liquidity of the marketplace so these sell-offs have less of an impact...
well the sentiment is hard to measure any day, but think of all the good news we've had for months now that hasnt budged the market upwards. That is the ultimate test of sentiment. The speculators have pumped the price too high for the commercial buyers, and there are not any speculators left to buy, not at this price. This slipping of prices is characteristic of a C wave, and I think we will all soon sober up to a new fair price of 400-500. (but not for long!) |
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what if, somehow, bitcoin, fundamentally, wasn't actually WORTH anything
oh you mean like paper USD and all the money in your bank account? |
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not to mention, look at btce, wave B has already passed the extreme. I think a broken wedge situation is more likely in that case. perhaps it will continue trending towards 600 for now.
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