rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

737 is now my upside target, so above that sell/short.

It was just luck, boys...

[chessnut]

I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?

[windjc]

I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?

The 200 daily SMA average sits at $425 and is increasing by about $3 a day. We have not been below it since early 2012. 2 years ago. When the price was $4.

I do not see us going below that. Waves or no waves.

[chessnut]

I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?

The 200 daily SMA average sits at $425 and is increasing by about $3 a day. We have not been below it since early 2012. 2 years ago. When the price was $4.

I do not see us going below that. Waves or no waves.

yeah... waves or no waves.....
Im not a superstitious EW trader - but it does work particularly well alongside a good measure of sentiment.
they say that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next guy will pay for it. I think that is true, so a slip always has the potential to be quite severe right?
Im just thinking that a spike below the last wave to 420 or so would not surprise me at all, and it is consistent with EWA. on the log chart, would it surprise me if it went to 250...... no. and that is also consistent with the tendency to revisit the fourth wave price range.
what im going at is that we are expecting 450-500, so what's in the way of 350 really. nothing much price wise.

[windjc]

I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?

The 200 daily SMA average sits at $425 and is increasing by about $3 a day. We have not been below it since early 2012. 2 years ago. When the price was $4.

I do not see us going below that. Waves or no waves.

yeah... waves or no waves.....
Im not a superstitious EW trader - but it does work particularly well alongside a good measure of sentiment.
they say that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next guy will pay for it. I think that is true, so a slip always has the potential to be quite severe right?
Im just thinking that a spike below the last wave to 420 or so would not surprise me at all, and it is consistent with EWA. on the log chart, would it surprise me if it went to 250...... no. and that is also consistent with the tendency to revisit the fourth wave price range.
what im going at is that we are expecting 450-500, so what's in the way of 350 really. nothing much price wise.

What is below 450 is resistance and a fuck ton of money waiting to enter the market place.

[chessnut]

I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?

The 200 daily SMA average sits at $425 and is increasing by about $3 a day. We have not been below it since early 2012. 2 years ago. When the price was $4.

I do not see us going below that. Waves or no waves.

yeah... waves or no waves.....
Im not a superstitious EW trader - but it does work particularly well alongside a good measure of sentiment.
they say that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next guy will pay for it. I think that is true, so a slip always has the potential to be quite severe right?
Im just thinking that a spike below the last wave to 420 or so would not surprise me at all, and it is consistent with EWA. on the log chart, would it surprise me if it went to 250...... no. and that is also consistent with the tendency to revisit the fourth wave price range.
what im going at is that we are expecting 450-500, so what's in the way of 350 really. nothing much price wise.

What is below 450 is resistance and a fuck ton of money waiting to enter the market place.

Can you see the orders? where do you get that info?

[rpietila]

- I don't see 266 to be broken, and my belief is backed by the two previous bubbles (ie. not much).

- It could go to low 300s if you ask me, which is good value if you have excess fiat.

- A double bottom in around 382 seems quite realistic.

- 500 will be broken almost surely, before we can move up.

As regards bid depth, can you see that Gox bid depth above 500 has gone down to 1/3 of what it was? Bid depth does not mean much because part of it is manipulation and the other part belongs to people whose considerations change along with price.

[isov]

- I don't see 266 to be broken, and my belief is backed by the two previous bubbles (ie. not much).

- It could go to low 300s if you ask me, which is good value if you have excess fiat.

- A double bottom in around 382 seems quite realistic.

- 500 will be broken almost surely, before we can move up.

As regards bid depth, can you see that Gox bid depth above 500 has gone down to 1/3 of what it was? Bid depth does not mean much because part of it is manipulation and the other part belongs to people whose considerations change along with price.

What would you say about the timescale for this? When can we expect an upward movement? Saw somewhere something about before end of march but what would you say? If big downward movement doesn't happen then can we go up from here or is it necessary that we go down before we go up?

[chessnut]

- I don't see 266 to be broken, and my belief is backed by the two previous bubbles (ie. not much).

- It could go to low 300s if you ask me, which is good value if you have excess fiat.

- A double bottom in around 382 seems quite realistic.

- 500 will be broken almost surely, before we can move up.

As regards bid depth, can you see that Gox bid depth above 500 has gone down to 1/3 of what it was? Bid depth does not mean much because part of it is manipulation and the other part belongs to people whose considerations change along with price.

do you think that gox bit depth has any meaning left at this point in time?
perhaps BTCe or bitstamp would give a better indication. I wonder - can one view those big orders down there. I cant on my account.

[rpietila]

What would you say about the timescale for this? When can we expect an upward movement? Saw somewhere something about before end of march but what would you say? If big downward movement doesn't happen then can we go up from here or is it necessary that we go down before we go up?

I've been saying since December that we have until end of March to consummate all this. Currently it looks like this month but could be the next also.

If we do not see $500 before end of March, it gets unlikely to see it ever. There will be ups and downs but if even the decisive down only goes to $700 it does not have the same meaning any more. (You can buy at $700 now, which the bulls some time ago regarded as impossible).

I think it goes to $500 and lower quite soon, but if this were 100% certain for all, we would be there already 

[isov]

What would you say about the timescale for this? When can we expect an upward movement? Saw somewhere something about before end of march but what would you say? If big downward movement doesn't happen then can we go up from here or is it necessary that we go down before we go up?

I've been saying since December that we have until end of March to consummate all this. Currently it looks like this month but could be the next also.

If we do not see $500 before end of March, it gets unlikely to see it ever. There will be ups and downs but if even the decisive down only goes to $700 it does not have the same meaning any more. (You can buy at $700 now, which the bulls some time ago regarded as impossible).

I think it goes to $500 and lower quite soon, but if this were 100% certain for all, we would be there already 

Ok, thanks! My most expensive coin is around 1050$ and cheapest is around 200$, I have never sold any and just bought when I have money. My stash is still small <10BTC but hopefully I can still buy some more with reasonable prices when I get to Finland and start working again, maybe around 2months from now. Just hate the winter and try to stay away until temperatures are tolerable again.

[SheHadMANHands]

What would you say about the timescale for this? When can we expect an upward movement? Saw somewhere something about before end of march but what would you say? If big downward movement doesn't happen then can we go up from here or is it necessary that we go down before we go up?

I've been saying since December that we have until end of March to consummate all this. Currently it looks like this month but could be the next also.

If we do not see $500 before end of March, it gets unlikely to see it ever. There will be ups and downs but if even the decisive down only goes to $700 it does not have the same meaning any more. (You can buy at $700 now, which the bulls some time ago regarded as impossible).

I think it goes to $500 and lower quite soon, but if this were 100% certain for all, we would be there already 

Ok, thanks! My most expensive coin is around 1050$ and cheapest is around 200$, I have never sold any and just bought when I have money. My stash is still small <10BTC but hopefully I can still buy some more with reasonable prices when I get to Finland and start working again, maybe around 2months from now. Just hate the winter and try to stay away until temperatures are tolerable again.

10BTC would be a nice, round number to have.

[BldSwtTrs]

What would you say about the timescale for this? When can we expect an upward movement? Saw somewhere something about before end of march but what would you say? If big downward movement doesn't happen then can we go up from here or is it necessary that we go down before we go up?

I've been saying since December that we have until end of March to consummate all this. Currently it looks like this month but could be the next also.

If we do not see $500 before end of March, it gets unlikely to see it ever. There will be ups and downs but if even the decisive down only goes to $700 it does not have the same meaning any more. (You can buy at $700 now, which the bulls some time ago regarded as impossible).

I think it goes to $500 and lower quite soon, but if this were 100% certain for all, we would be there already  

How did you come up with the end of March as the last bound?

Is it because a 3/4 months bear market fits somehow with the one of the last bubble (April to July) or is there something else?

[User705]

I dont know if there are many EW Analysts here, but is there not a good chance that this fourth wave correction will fall into the price range of the previous fourth wave? (260ish)
if this is a genuine 3 wave correction, would you also say there is a good chance of passing the last low to reach say 380?
what are your thoughts? would such a large move be intercepted?
rpietila?

The 200 daily SMA average sits at $425 and is increasing by about $3 a day. We have not been below it since early 2012. 2 years ago. When the price was $4.

I do not see us going below that. Waves or no waves.

yeah... waves or no waves.....
Im not a superstitious EW trader - but it does work particularly well alongside a good measure of sentiment.
they say that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next guy will pay for it. I think that is true, so a slip always has the potential to be quite severe right?
Im just thinking that a spike below the last wave to 420 or so would not surprise me at all, and it is consistent with EWA. on the log chart, would it surprise me if it went to 250...... no. and that is also consistent with the tendency to revisit the fourth wave price range.
what im going at is that we are expecting 450-500, so what's in the way of 350 really. nothing much price wise.

What is below 450 is resistance and a fuck ton of money waiting to enter the market place.

Fuck ton from where?  China?  Russia?  rpietila is right that the longer the downtrend goes the more likely that this fuck ton of waiting money you speak of gets spent elsewhere.

[rpietila]

How did you come up with the end of March as the last bound?

Is it because a 3/4 months bear market fits somehow with the one of the last bubble (April to July) or is there something else?

That maybe 20%.

80% biggest reason is the trendline, which rises relentlessly, doubling every 99 days. It is just unlikely that it would go so deep below the trend. So if 2012 happens, we just grind at 800 (which is the new 5), and then slowly start to rise.

rpietila is right that the longer the downtrend goes the more likely that this fuck ton of waiting money you speak of gets spent elsewhere.

Yes, I speak from my own experience that I permanently took away from exchange in January much more money than I originally envisioned in November (because I got tired of waiting, and fiat has its uses, and keeping money in exchange is a risk). If other sellers have done the same, the buy support has just dwindled, and there are still the bulls waiting to panic and cause further drops in price.

[David Rabahy]

It seems to me a really good solid cleansing comes from a deep retreat from the old high.

Do current newcomers look at the historic exchange rate (how far back?) or do they embrace the vision of Bitcoin et al?  To me the trend line is a mathematical illusion.  What force of nature (human psychology?) is powering the trend line?

Who is a newcomer?  Why did they come in?

[chessnut]

In a stable economy of large scale the average is effective at representing steady organic growth if too many speculators are not present. We can see the average with our eyes, we only use the tool for precision. I dont find it hard to understand why an average could be considered to be a 'fair' price. sometimes a fair price is the best you can ask for.

But I would agree that the coming crash could have unexpected potential, regardless of the fundamental innovation of bitcoin. I really do believe that a bitcoin is only worth as much as the next man will pay, at this stage in the game. speculators are more likely to watch and see than place large, risky orders at 500. The larger speculators would know, never catch a falling knife. If the price is well tested after such a crash the reversal would then be swift.

There are a lot of happy go lucky speculators that are likely subject to panic at this stage - and not enough commercial demand.

[ScaryHash]

Hi. I want a glass of red wine.

I'll take some 18 yr old Laphroaig single malt pls, ice and water on the side.

[chessnut]

many people including myself are reporting unusually large delays in depositing bitcoin into BTCe this morning. The frustration seems high.
This, is a fine measure of sentiment. looks like we have an incoming flow of sellers.
nobody sells more erratically than a seller who is late to the party.

[Roccker]

Bitstamp down to 530, then up to 630 again (in like 10 seconds), now 645
Guess i will panic buy a bit more bitcoins i want to have. What about you? Was this the crash