agreed, two months is too wide a range, we're in a major period of price discovery at the moment, and I expect we'll find capitulation within the next week. Two months is pretty much guaranteed.
Wouldn't surprise me if Goxxing continued for a while yet, overshadowing just about everything else. Until Karpeles completes his self-evisceration (at least to the satisfaction of the market, which then has some certainty) nothing's going to be clear. |
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Wouldn't the obvious thing for gox management be to just send coins to other exchanges and sell? Might not be legal but would keep them alive
There was a point to that effect earlier in the thread - or that it's actually been happening for months. Dangerous strategy if that's really going on, since sales of the volumes required would crash the price on those excha- oh, wait... It seems pretty clear there's some illegal or at least very dubious activity going on, as well as straightforward incompetence and getting a bunch of coins stolen by hackers, perhaps for some time now. I think the safest strategy is to assume that anything underhand, incompetent or brutally stupid that could have been going on at Gox has been. |
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Think about it, they have LOTS to gain by making a positive announcement tomorrow, and lots to lose by making another negative announcement. They've already scared the market shitless last time, they got their cheap coins, so I'm sure the upcoming announcement will be as full of positive spin as they can manage. I expect a positive announcement and an increase in price after Thursday.
Think about it, they know they are so screwed up that a positive announcement tomorrow won't even keep their customers after-crash, and lots of cheap choins to buy / arbitrage by making another negative announcement. So predictable that the announcement is negative. Nay, it's joking.. I didn't expect negative news. All Gox has left now is spin, and they're not even doing that well. If it turns out their situation is better than people suspect and they are solvent (something the market estimated at 5:1 against earlier today) then they may retain some small amount of credibility. Not something I think will happen but there's a chance. But the way they've managed their PR should be the final nail in the coffin. The sad thing is that there are enough people who will still give them a 2nd, 3rd, 4th chance to keep them going as 'the world's most established Bitcoin exchange'. |
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So more people flew to Japan and someone threatened to kick Kraples ass? Am I reading that correctly? this week we have experienced some
security problems, and as a result we had to relocate MtGox to our previous office building
in Shibuya https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140220-Announcement.pdfMaybe they were asked by the owner of the building to leave. Having protestors at the front of your door isn't good advertisement. That's what I understood - not sure where I read that though. On the other hand, would you hang around with 500,000 of other people's bitcoins stuffing your trousers? Good reason to be anywhere but at the office right now. |
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Quoting this article solely because the bolded & italicized sentence was inadvertently awesome. When all the dust has settled, I think "to Touch the Pink Cow" needs to become a euphemism for having a massively successful business -- with almost literally a license to print money -- that you somehow manage to completely f*ck up and drive into the ground merely because you're a staggeringly incompetent douchebag with your head stuck up your a$$.
+10,000 |
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Got to say, Stamp's holding up well given that Gox is almost into double digits. Famous last words...
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If I had 100 000$ in cash at gox, I would buy now. Then I would spend every second on the Goxsite and refreshing. If the withdrawals work again, you should make sure, you are first.
Gox is burning so you might as well do the same with your $100,000. I sincerely hope they'll get their act together but even if they are solvent (which the market has priced in at odds of 3:1 against) their lack of communication is appalling and they deserve to sink, which no doubt they will under the weight of a bloated CEO. No one with self respect or intelligence should use Gox after this. Like I said. I would buy and get out my coins as fast as I can. For sure this is risky, every opportunity, where you can make a lot of money, is risky. But in my opinion the price at Gox is highly undervaluated. But maybe I am wrong. I am no prophet (and no cash. I would have to sell btc and transfer money to gox. This would take a week or so...) Fair enough. You pays your money, you takes your choice. Myself, I'd take $100k in the hand over a 1-in-4 chance of $400k any day... |
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If I had 100 000$ in cash at gox, I would buy now. Then I would spend every second on the Goxsite and refreshing. If the withdrawals work again, you should make sure, you are first.
Gox is burning so you might as well do the same with your $100,000. I sincerely hope they'll get their act together but even if they are solvent (which the market has priced in at odds of 3:1 against) their lack of communication is appalling and they deserve to sink, which no doubt they will under the weight of a bloated CEO. No one with self respect or intelligence should use Gox after this. |
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Damn straight. I have a lot of sympathy for people who have lost bitcoins from Gox (or who haven't yet, but look like they're about to). But Gox has been failing for a long time and the way they've treated their users, they don't deserve to stay afloat. Bitcoin is about transparency and openness, and Gox has been anything but.
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Yup. Bitstamp is eerily quiet, low volume, pretty much static.
-> something is about to happen
dump coming ! Call me paranoid, but something weird is going on with Stamp. Trading within a $10 range all day - only broken just now, by a few cents. But weirder, A LOT of very small trades are happening, just a few hundredths or thousandths of a bitcoin, and a lot of them are the same amount. Take a look at the order book. Very few 'real' trades. So I'm wondering what that's about. Is someone manipulating the market with a bot that buffers prices? And what happens when someone buys or sells a large amount and pushes it well outside of its range? |
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This whole forum is in a state of denial right now.
Pretty sure if that was the case we wouldn't have the entertaining differences of opinion. |
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Yup. Bitstamp is eerily quiet, low volume, pretty much static.
-> something is about to happen
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I write for BitScan.com. Happy to discuss material if you're still looking.
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I'd love to think it was going back to $100, but
1) that's below the trendline, back to prices way before bitcoin got so much press
2) who here WOULDN'T buy a fat bunch of coins at $300, $250, $200?!
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Anyone prepared to call the bottom?
Based on nothing more scientific than a finger in the wind (which is actually quite a lot more scientific than a lot of people on these forums rely on) I'll say $400, Bitstamp.
LOWER! And over a much longer time period than the perma-bulls have the patience for, which is why it will be the true final capitulation. Yeah, probably right. $200 wouldn't surprise me. Under that would I think. Pre-October 2013 prices don't seem likely, still too much residual interest from speculators. |
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Anyone prepared to call the bottom?
Based on nothing more scientific than a finger in the wind (which is actually quite a lot more scientific than a lot of people on these forums rely on) I'll say $400, Bitstamp.
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Run me through the psychology of that?
The psychology of Liar walls? To affect investor psychology of course. At the time I made my previous post, Bitcoin was at $650? Perhaps if a holder of Bitcoin were stupid enough to trust the huge Bid wall, he would look at the thousands of BTC of orders standing in between the then current $650 and a mere $20 - $30 drop and think that he was safe and that he didn't need to sell. He may then look at the comparatively shallow Ask wall, and think, "gee, with all this buying interest piling up I had better get me some $650 Bitcoin whilst I still can". Now that we are at $590, and probably much lower by the time you read this, perhaps you can see why an investor shouldn't place too much faith in what the Bid/Ask wall is telling him about the market conditions. These walls need not be 'liar walls' as such, they may be genuine in that there are forces out there with much more to lose than the nominal value of thier crypto holdings if Bitcoin goes dramatically down. There might be huge sums of money being put into these walls that will really stand and absorb any dump that comes it's way, without attempting to immediately liquidate at the next best opportunity that comes along. But the fact that we have this one bullish indicator (the huge Bid volume across all exchanges), in amongst a shit-storm of bearish indicators and sentiment, should tell you not to make any Bitcoin decision based on what the Wall is telling you. Ok, misunderstood what you were saying (or, at least, the exact way in which you were being facetious). Bid walls aren't a reliable indicator that the market is going to do the opposite of what they suggest on the surface of it - they're an apparent indicator that isn't reliable in any sense? Of course, if there were any really reliable indicators, the market would take that into account and do something different... Makes me wish I hadn't sold my house and bought at $640 though. |
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Run me through the psychology of that? MatTheCat has a point about the wall of buyers stacked up - though looking back there are suddenly more sellers on the other side now, too.
I was indeed only being 'facetious'. When the market is stationary relative to the mass of buy and sell orders, trust the Bid/Ask walls like you would trust a fox to guard a chicken coop. |
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MatTheCat has a point about the wall of buyers stacked up - though looking back there are suddenly more sellers on the other side now, too.
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