We seem to be bottoming now. I remember when there was bottom at $2.00, this kind of thread was the rage. People were speculating we would reach sub-penny price level anytime. I am seeing similar sentiment now. But remember guys, $4.00/BTC is not a joke and is not end of the bitcoin. Unless bitcoin becomes illegal or the network infrastructure collapses fantastically, there is nothing else stopping bitcoin.
Higher price right now will definitely look good for people like me who are long, however I won't complain about $4.00 /BTC price. And I am willing to give bitcoin some time to become mainstream.
not yet, we've only just got majority bearish. people are still talking about this as an 'opportunity' that's not properly bearish. |
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~4.13 is 62.8 fib retracement from 7.25 (from 2.2 bottom)
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i just didn't calculate such a massiv drop into the calculation. If you are going to 'trade' bitcoin then you should start from a position of assuming there is going to be a massive drop/spike and work from there imho. |
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It's more of an indication of how crowd mentality works. How you interpret the effect on price is anybody's guess!
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Patience is the key. Bitcoinica orders are all filling in nicely. I sense a distinct speculation forum mood change... I wonder how far down we'll go... I wonder if I have orders low enough  |
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Tipping point?? For what?
The velvet. |
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IMO, bitcoin is not a good fit for a purely quantitative/technical approach.
i can agree with you here. many more things than strict technical analysis go into my decision-making. using this forum as a sentiment gauge works really well, actually. Calculus aside, what is the forum sentiment in your opinion, and how do you use this to decide on price movement in the near term? I made my position clear on that. I think we need to hit panic/despair before we get to the bottom. Since the new year rallies I would say optimism has remained pretty high. |
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I just looked at goxlive, and it looked a bit bullish on price action, looked like a short term rising wedge might be forming. I thought maybe we could be heading back up. Then I checked RSI hasn't bottomed OBV/PVT are still tanking. I think its a bull trap.
If we break to the upside It won't hold, it might push through 5.50 to get everyone on board, but it will top out at 5.70 and then look for new lows.
This medium term correction has to run its course, my money is still on retest of ~2.20. If we test 2.20 and it holds then that will become e early strong support level. Any lower and people will be all at sea again wondering what do.
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sure I hadn't thought of it that way |
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Drifting, drifting... how about now... pessimism now....??
Orders all the way down baby, they are filling nicely... The deeper we go the bigger the order!
I have already told myself I will not panic however low it goes. My lowest order is around 14 cents a coin. I doubt it will go that low but who knows!
Still long term bullish, just patiently accumulating on dips...
So you're cost-averaging your way to cheap bitcoins... where is the point of no return? When I run out of (play) money, are the whole of bitcoin fades to dust. If you are buying BTC with money you can't afford to lose then you are doing it wrong! (imho) I am still hoping for thousands per coin  ( a guy can dream eh). Knoing my luck I'll get it but it will be largely due to hyperinflation on the USD heheh. |
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it was done with USD from bitcoinica the * is up
SQUIZEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Bitcoinica doesn't show on gox |
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I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago. However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.
I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe. Ugh, it makes me sick to think we're going to test those levels again. With more bitcoins for sale on the orderbook than before, I'd be worried the price wouldn't rebound and even more people would feel the same and abandon ship. I feel like the project was just beginning to get some credibility back and if that happens...well, it won't be good for bitcoin. We speculators are ruining this project. I'm a part of that, as much as I hate to admit it. The dips aren't what is killing the credibility, it the stupid rallies! (alhough they are kind of fun!) High time we had a chart with arbitrary line...  If growth proceeded in a steady fashion then *that* would be credible, but the whole crowd keeps piling in and then subsequently losing there shirt. Really the 'actual' line could be anywhere I just picked one for effect, but the point is that the price shouldn't be fluctuating so wildly around it. If it didn't keep taking off so wildly then it wouldn't have to keep correcting. This is nothing new though, look at any equity chart of a steadily growing company and you see the gyrations of human craziness messing with what should be a fairly smooth increase in valuation. |
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I think we're going into the $4 range, which was my guess a week or so ago. However, at the time I thought we'd strongly rebound from there, and now I doubt that.
I still think we are on a long downtrend, and we'll re-test the ~2.20 bottom before we go back up. I don't expect any of my orders belew $2 to get filled, if they do its a bonus (or good money after bad!) hehe. |
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I saw at least a 900 sell into it, which would imply its as 'real' as any of th other orders in the book!
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At 14 cents, everyone will indeed think its over. I think it probably will be. If it is, I lose money that I have already written off. If it isn't I have bagged a truckload of coin ready for round 2!
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More to point is the BTC10k wall at 5.40 real. I guess we'll see soon....
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Drifting, drifting... how about now... pessimism now....??
Orders all the way down baby, they are filling nicely... The deeper we go the bigger the order!
I have already told myself I will not panic however low it goes. My lowest order is around 14 cents a coin. I doubt it will go that low but who knows!
Still long term bullish, just patiently accumulating on dips...
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Gosh, trading for whole week at $6.30.
Now we've bumped down to $5.80 for another week of brain-dead sideways movement.
Nuh-uh, not so sure about that. As people will start to realize that their current 6.25 - 7.20 asks are getting increasingly unattainable, the mountain of asks will move lower to overwhelm the bid side. The bottom could well fall out over the next week, if the panic hasn't started already. All this talk of dropping prices makes me think we are ready for another spike up. With overwhelming sentiment, comes opposite movement! Not yet. We're barely out of the 'buy now whilst you still have the chance' phase... You'll know we are ready for a spike up when you stop thinking it's possible we'll get one |
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ill agree with that i wasn't sure if the semi permanent starfish was a denial indicator
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Ah good there it is. Normal service has been resumed. Now the downtrend may continue |
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