The "competition" is in your imagination.

There provably are people who are interested in Dash, but of all the CN coins (except Monero), combined, fit in a room.



ADD: Only now saw the timestamps in the chart.  
(I like good stories -- why not more pre-2014 currencies?? )

It is not that you have a divine right to claim anyone's time that's why.

Grab a coffee and read the last 2 pages, there are plenty of reasons. Pick the one you like. Move on.

I also think it's kinda sad that Bytecoin failed so totally.

This also was an answer to the question!

(what a helpful team we have here  )

It's like somebody insisting that Octocoin can replace Bitcoin, since hey - there is nothing in Bitcoin that wasn't in octocoin!

Sorry. Clones don't count. Only Bitcoin and Monero are legitimate coins.

$30,000...

IF there wasn't the scenario of Monero becoming a monetary system for 10,000,000s of people at minimum, with the corresponding rise to $10,000/XMR or more, I would not be spending my time on it!

Your thinking may hold true as long as nothing changes, but something needs to change in order to realize the vision.

It is also the 2nd Fibonacci level, the (by far) the most important retracement level. A bottom there would be an extremely strong sign for the future.

Sorry but it's true that I don't want to buy materially more unless it drops below 200ksat. So without intending to sound bearish, this wish to have lower prices (as they finally seem possible) might unconsciously weigh in the analysis ...

If we think of the general population, it is hard to say which they fear more - the losses, or the gains.

Think of your own investing history - if you sell a stock after it has lost 10-20%, and let the winners run, you are loss-averse. This is a more winning proposition that the other, which is more popular: selling the winners after 20% and waiting patiently for the losers to gain the target, and then liquidating them.

With XMR, neither approach brings good results. The scenario profile is very much weighted towards low-probability high-payoff scenarios. So selling prematurely only kills your gains. Also the short-term movements to the downside are not very indicative of a reduced potential to achieve the gains in the future. It is not possible to deem XMR "a loser" if it drops 20% or even if it drops 90%+ from the previous high.

Since even I - as the foremost XMR economist - cannot evaluate if the coin ends up losing, except by putting a probability figure of 85%, you should also be wary of making judgements about certainties. Certainty does not exist.

I strongly disagree with any long-term strategy that includes a possibility of selling at a loss. I cannot find any purpose for such.

The best approach to the gains that I can think of, is methodical selling at predetermined price points, so that the whole schedule is set in stone beforehand. This is even more important for those who initially hold a significant percentage of their wealth in XMR. Setting the percentages such that after a 1000-fold gain you still have 10% and after a 1,000,000-fold gain, 1% is a good rule of thumb. If such scenario unfolds, it is important to learn to handle money.

Even if long periods of stagnation happen, you should not sell prematurely, wrecking the plan. Also I don't advise to buy back, except perhaps after a significant 75% or more decline compared to last selling price.

I tend to agree. (  ) Mostly.

"True change in trend" is definitely achieved, there is very little chance to hit new lows below 0.001.

But I also note that we turned back from the trading range in 0.003-0.004, and are now sliding down. The previous trading range was in 0.001-0.002.

In my position, buying more does not objectively make sense unless it goes back to the previous range. And if not, then we'll evaluate the situation again. My position is big enough already to not really FOMO.

A real uptrend does require a new ATH. Waiting for that before buying is otoh not very smart, same number of coins can be had at 25% the price now and should be bought and forgotten instead of waiting.

Dumping now does not make sense because the downside is limited, upside unlimited. Except a very short term play with a tiny position, which most people cannot even execute, and those who can are too rich to care.

If we take a long enough timeframe, it is more likely that Monero will fail than succeed. Statistics say so. I have said and repeat that imo, the chances of gaining purchasing power by investing into XMR are about 15% in 10 years. In 85%, you will lose, in most cases all. If you think otherwise, you are more bullish than me (and I am generally regarded as a proponent).

If it will not die, I agree that the chances to replace Bitcoin do exist, although I see that both coins serve a purpose and coexistence is much more likely.

Monero is still the best EV asset I have found. What is considered "overweight" is anybody's opinion. For those who don't have much to lose (high-earning potential, low-net worth informed individuals), going wildly overweight is a rational choice. For us older folks who need to preserve the existing wealth, have tax concerns related to asset reallocation, etc., even a small investment brings the same benefits.

If you invest 100% into Monero, you are prone to sell a lot after a relatively small gain of 10x, 4x or even 2x. If you invest 1%, you can wait for meaningful gains. I invested only 1% into Bitcoin, which was a mistake theoretically, but it enabled me to stay calm and only partially cash out after 200x gains.

So it does not much matter how much you invest, and what percentage (and especially at what price, which is the least meaningful thing of all). Sitting tight is the thing you need, which most lack.

Sitting tight in the face of 1000x gains that are only realized in 15% probability, with many FUD in between.

Place your bets, gentlemen 

Building economics in V.4

Due to the softening XMR price, it was today locked that the NPC daily costs are unchanged.

How about the buildings? Windows are now 120,000 instead of 140,000, but the stone is going up and labor is unchanged (because it's NPC cost although paid as a lump sum). In total, it's likely that this will even out.

It is possible to build a 2 m high, lowrise, 0% lux place according to existing models (no architect fee) for 200,000 m/sqm. The THC Model1 is an example of this.

Luxuries cost 2,000 m/sqm/1%, so a nice 100% lux is +200,000 m/sqm and the lofty 200% is +400,000 m/sqm. Different parts of the project may have different lux so rental basement no need to be 200% anymore, resulting in savings.

Having some room height and windows and supports and more height and total height, the price tag is increased by 100,000-200,000 m/sqm.

And my architect fee is 24%.

=> Therefore, the price range for perfectly ordinary places is about 300-400k, below that is cost-conscious, but it is possible to spend closer to 1 million per sqm incl architect fee if the place is cool. Or 1.7 million as was the case in San Pietro. 35 m room height and 3 m walls add to the costs without adding the sqm 

How much are the running costs? Currently, guarding is 200 m/sqm/day in most cases.

Tax is not yet ratified, but it will likely be 100 m/sqm/day.

Luxury depreciation is 1%-point per week, and this is also directly proportional to sqm, therefore 286 m/day.

Structure depreciation is random, and one-time events are not included, but over the long haul it tends to exponential decay. It is possible to calculate the daily averaged cost for each building separately, but they vary widely due to the optimum time of making repairs, cost of labor per sqm, and the depreciating factor which is lower for solid designs and higher for risky ones. The range is about 100-500 m/day with 200 m/day an average. It typically takes 2 realyears before the building needs to be repaired, and in this long a time something else may be desired instead, in which case it ends up not even mattering that the building has deteriorated as it's demolished anyway.

So owning buildings will cost you directly 300 m/day and indirectly about 800 m/day, per sqm.

The land should hold its value or grow in tandem with other game assets, so theoretically it should not be taken into account at all.

The money tied up in the building, however, should. Some buildings become more valuable as they age, but most buildings don't. Therefore it's good to establish an interest rate that can be used in the calculations. When Bank still granted short term loans, this was about 0.40%/day.

Now we can calculate the total costs of "operating" a rental, let's say we have 1,000 sqm, which cost 300 million, in a 6 q lot, which cost 120 million:

- Direct costs 300,000 m/day = 0.10% of capital employed
- Indirect costs 450,000 m/day = 0.15% of capital employed
- Capital costs 1.2 mil/day = 0.40% of capital
----------------------------------------------------------------
Total costs 1.95 mil/day = 0.65%         * land is expected to appreciate at the rate of 0.40% so need not be taken into account

The special institutions formula gives an equal weight to space (desirability*sqm-formula) and NPCs (efficiency formula). Because the actual running costs of large buildings are remarkably cheap compared to seasoned NPC, rational actors might want to maximize the availability of space in the Special Institutions (including Household, Army (Army has only 1/3 weight for the space instead of 1/2)).

This gives an economic rationale for embarking on large construction projects in the University borough.

In these circumstances, the above requires either that a large number of people who believe in Monero are willing to sell at a loss, or that no new money enters in at least 1 month, and the existing holders don't pick the ball.

I would say the first one is not going to happen. The second one might, but then 0.0018 is not a magic number. The turn upwards happens once the money starts flowing again. Monero is such an interesting project that I am not betting against that.

We agree on 0.0018 being the floor, at which the existing holders are happy to buy all the emission without regard to new money or not.

(The speculation case that "speculators sell" is not included because every sane speculator already sold at 0.003 (at a loss  ); also the "sell in order to buy back" was so recently proven stupid that only the ones who could avoid it have any XMR now )

NPC in V.4


Just sent the final NPC properties to the devs. Some highlights:

- Type Worker (OTH; N1) will be used in a variety of roles.
- ASS-3 promote all the way to MGR-3, also some other jump-promotions.
- Promotion in general is really slow, this is the result of the NPC lifespan - they start work at 15 and if they get promoted long enough, may live up to 65. This is 600 realdays, and the promotion range needs to be realistic. Not every waitress ever becomes a BUT-9 for instance. As long as the ages of NPC are not modeled, the promotion is based on IF(rnd()<small_value) script instead. So no much planning, except statistically such as in armies with a large number of soldiers. The good news is that the promotion roll is daily. The initial promotion (eg. MGR-1 => MGR-2) happens mostly quickly but after that only the best make it.

If specific talent is requested, it makes sense to buy from aftermarket. The formulas of the subgames are not much changed now, but they will be updated periodically to patch exploits. The highest levels N8 (silver NPC) and N9 (gold NPC) will probably continue to be worth their hefty pay and transfer price due to their usefulness in boosting almost any formula, and the fact that they generate CUL and SCI bonuses as follows (N8 provides 1 and N9 provides 2 points per day):

MGR, SPE, COL/LTC = Science
CHE, BUT, SPE = Culture

Yes, specialists provide both

Sadly N9 do not promote or provide other six sigma bonuses except the continuous boost in CUL/SCI.

NPC are mortal, and high-level NPC are more mortal than the low ones, because they are older. It is undecided if the mortality will be implemented in V.5 (together with PC mortality) or V.6 (together with the grand overhaul of PC/NPC skills and abilities). A rule of thumb when calculating the life expectancy could be that highest level has 10 years (120 days left) from the time when the clock starts ticking, and lowest levels about 20 years (240 days). But V.5 is likely not until at least 60 days from V.4, and V.6 further still.

Building in the future



Building originally consisted of stone, labor and imports (luxuries and windows). Rules (eg. 15-20 m height limit) dictated what kind of construction was possible.

Now it is not much different, but windows are no longer imports, at least our own RWWC tries to meet the demand with domestic production. Rules have been eased and high building made more expensive to construct.

In V.4: Reconstruction, the windows need to be sourced, they are not available freely. Building labor is unlimited still, but may experience fluctuations in price, which has already been the case. Luxuries are eroding by time, and the condition of the whole building also erodes, making periodic luxury and repair updates needed. Luxury will remain a way to get backdated Items, which was already tested with AIC.

In V.5: Economy, the building project labor is no longer a lump sum, but NPC labor points in the same way as any other labor. The smallholders have their buildings designed from architects, and order them from the building companies. A large building effort takes several days, as one day is one month, inadequate to build a church.

In the future, with advances in technology, and especially in our gaming software, buildings will be more itemized. Doors, windows, wood parts, details in gardens and interior elements can be customized. The Items management is in place to allow this without choking the game, and Skills&Businesses make the generation of Unique Items fun and realistic (otherwise it would be money talks -only, which is boring, and the reason why currently items are created in a backward way).

The following things are expected to happen:

Building height remains controlled, making very stately buildings possible but expensive, often unstable, and uneconomical. This will definitely not hinder the future builders any more than the past ones, as big buildings just are better than small ones, and cost is anyway not the concern (a large building will cost $500+ making it not the business of the unbelievers).

When health is implemented, the crowded areas will be regarded as unhealthy. It's not easy to point now, where these areas might form, as the current formulas do not allocate poor and rich people separately, family members are not counted, etc. Also the population density just isn't so high yet with large areas outside and in between boroughs unbuilt.

Traffic will become a concern as well, as has been hinted, but this also lacks the formulas that are collected from the online version data.

Not in any near future, the precision of the buildings will move to 0.5m, making thinner interior walls possible, with many other applications as well.

Wood roof structures have for historical reasons not been used except in connection with gilding, but they will make the variety of roofs possible.

Wood ceilings are mainly not used because we cannot construct freestanding walls of any appreciable height. Therefore the ceilings need to be of stone as well to solidify the structure. In the future, upper floor or smaller building ceilings can be of wood, saving space and costs, but adding propensity of fire, which is about non-existent with our current building style.

The lack of ironworking skills and the high price of imported iron (we don't have a single paved road leading anywhere from our town) have resulted in buildings that have few protruding parts, as supporting them is tricky. This will be eased in time.

In the near term, the price of stone will go up, but better quarrying technologies should bring it down in the future. Currently a cubic-metre block of stone costs 24k + 40k in labor. One sqm of windows costs 120k + 40k in labor. It is also possible that there will be different types of stone itemized, with big blocks, especially columns, graded to really bear the burden that currently is deemed impossible (you just cannot build a pillar 15:1 height:diameter ratio from random stones).

Facades will soon become an additional optional cost item, buyable in the time of construction, and bringing the Beautiful-bonus.

It's already OK to not make stone railings in roof terraces (wood instead), but the style persists.

Variable terrain height and terraforming, cellars, etc is coming.

Please add your wishes to the list - the lead time for implementation is months, so better be early that your character won't die in waiting! 

Good text.

You are assuming that all the current and future holders forsake their self-interest in maintaining the community interest. While new holders perhaps quickly conform to this thinking and turn to slow accumulation, it does not take more than 1 large new holder or a few middle-sized ones who don't, and the whole theory becomes as defensible as BTC price at $1 USD in May, 2011.

Just because the actions of the first year of XMR can retroactively be explained by a smallish community working together, does not mean that the future would bear any resemblance.

I write my short-term forecasts mainly for fun. In the longer term the deciding factor is how many XMR you own, and at present the price is so low that the thing that makes the most sense from the selfish perspective is just to buy the desired amount and not care about it.

Markets are discounting the future. For this reason, you cannot expect the "bear market" to continue even one more day.

Every day, market participants value (in this case) BTC according to all the information they have of the present and the future. This evaluation includes expectations of lower prices, and such expectations lead to lower prices today, not tomorrow, as these people sell.

The belief that more and more sellers will always be found at lower and lower prices, while easy to spot from the hindsight, is usually fallacious when applied to the future.

The extent of shorting BTC in all levels is at extreme and nobody thinks it will go up. Just then it will.

Debunking is easy - find the people who now hold BTC and are willing to sell at lower prices. Don't know many? Me neither   

(T1) 500 SCI
- application of an age-old technology first time in our kingdom (Mint)
- research with limited application (New foods)

(T2) 1,000 SCI
- industrial espionage to a known technology (Crown Windows)
- experimental research leading to a limited success (NF dyes and perishable clothes monopoly - will later be proven inadequate quality, they will have to develop other techs to maintain the lead )
- way to treat a single disease/illness
- unlocking of a minor game feature (Flowers)

(T3) 2,000 SCI
- a new industry, following foreign discoveries (Printing Press)
- minor advances in weaponry (mastery in a technique known to other countries)
- advances in Engineering/Construction (New building methods, one by one)

(T4) 5,000 SCI
- societal, administration, roadbuilding, economics advances (Limited opening of Countryside)
- major advances in weaponry (better equipment)
- spiritual studies (Reformation)

(T5) 10,000 SCI
- major advances in engineering/sanitation/city planning (Opening of a middle borough)
- major collection of knowledge from a previously unknown sector of life (Seafaring/Navy)
- a new industry, creating valuable export goods (mining of unknown minerals)

(T6) 20,000 SCI
(T7) 50,000 SCI
(T8) 100,000 SCI

Price action will never more be a threat to Monero survival.

As we let the above sink in, what is there to worry? We entered in the valley of death, traversed it, and now are victorious. Working and waiting that the rest of the world 1-2 investors in the following months would realize what we already know.

Surprises will come, positive ones. 

There are no people prone to panic in Monero. And this should be known. The speculators are gone already, and are waiting for their turn to panic buy, if anything  

I don't see a malicious intention in the dump, it just happens with this high emission. Some miner wanted to see how long the uptrend goes, decided that it's stalled, and saw his chance to sell to the support. Normal market action.

If no new money commits in the following months, we might see a downtrend to the 200k area. Because that's what the coins do, they rise quickly, and then fall slowly.

But do the numbers: Monero is so small (especially in USD terms) that it can explode anytime. All the shorters were burned just 2 months ago, I don't wish anyone have such a short memory that they would try again.

The speculators are now primed, as soon as the rise starts, they jump in again.

2-3 days action determines if 280k is still a support or whether it has become a resistance. The latter case means a new feast for my clients, as moderate volume will again be available at a capped price.

"order" is what emerges automatically

the top-down perversion of the natural order is "cancer"

"chaos" happens when order is replaced by cancer, which dies - it will soon become "order" again


(I think nature can more accurately be called "orderly" than "chaotic" yet pundits use these words interchangeably to mean the same thing)