Your such a good sport... .and that would increase my current BTC holdings above 0.6405 BTC, that is presuming that I would be able to keep HODLing and/or building my current stash without losing significant parts of it.

Another thing, I know that I am ribbing on you, but I doubt that my odds of making it to 2062 are that much greater than yours, and even if they might be greater, I cannot even be sure that they are greater.

Maybe we might have to agree that fillippone should be a substitute beneficiary, since he will likely still be bitterly waiting for Proudhon's payout at around that time.

I think that you are lost or in the wrong thread, Litzki1990..   both in regards to your talking about shitcoins and also in regards towards being concerned about selling BTC (or when to sell)...

Sure people might establish bitcoin portfolio management or even bitcoin accumulation practices that involve selling, but we are not talking about those topics or those kinds of practices in this thread - except incidentally rather than the main thrust of the thread, which seems to be the way that you want to talk about the topic - which seems to be in the wrong thread and contrary to the topic of the thread, and you can go talk about trading techniques and even techniques that involve selling BTC in other threads because if you are trying delve into that crap here, then you are diverting from the main focus of this thread, even though you seem to disagree with the idea of long term investing.. so likely this thread is not for you... unless you can figure out or define whatever you happen to be talking about (or promoting) in a way that seems to fit within the topic of this thread rather than your seemingly off-topicness.

About a year ago, Bitstamp disallowed placing orders that use cents, and therefore we ONLY get round numbers and no decimal places with them.  Personally i don't like that decision of theirs.


You should know.




True dat!


You're just worried about the receipt of your "proudhon gift."

I get the sense that you do not "really" and "truly" like him.


Blame Philipma1957.  At this particular moment, I cannot think of any candidate more eligible.


I would not want phil to be sacrificed.. especially since he does not have very many years left.. I mean maybe 2062 at the outside of things.

Fair enough.  I surely would not begrudge anyone for the employment of various self-improvement methods, including that sometimes they might or might not completely succeed.. but if you are finding progress then surely that would likely be a better place to be.

Another thing, I don't claim to be holier than thou or even holier than any other forum member, but sometimes I come accross certain kinds of behaviors that I consider problematic (including these two threads) then I may well choose to identify them as such (from my opinion/perspective) and make some kind of comment and/or analysis about such, rather than not saying anything..

By the way, aren't you asking me to respond, when you put my name in the title of the thread?  or even naming me in the OP?

In the end, it remains a discretionary matter whether to respond and/or how to respond, so in that regard, it seems that my earlier post largely speaks for itself.. and even with my writing of that post, I did go back through the post again (about a couple of hours after I first posted it, and I made some clarification edits), since I realized that I was juggling together a lot of ideas, and some of those ideas (meaning more than one) might be controversial, perhaps?


Just because you posted about it, you should not impute knowledge upon anyone in the WO thread to have had read it, understood it, or even to have had remembered it... but I do recall you making a similar point to me about that post that coming out of the closet post that you made when I was engaged in some other kind of previous "Bob bashing," if we might label my conduct as such.


I doubt that I am purposefully attacking you in any way that is beyond what you deserve, yet surely I understand that opinions likely vary in regards to word-choice and/or tone that anyone (including but not limited to yours truly) might employ in their forum posts...  YMMV^{tm-toxic-moxic}

Another point that many of us frequently make, and should realize is that on the interwebs, none of us can really expect anyone to be nice, fair or even without malice towards us, and I doubt that any of my "attacks" on you are beyond anything that might be expected.. especially when you seem to be asking for it by naming me in supposed parody not parody thread.. .. even though I really doubt that I am deliberately attempting to be purposefully mean to you or anything like that (beyond somewhat "reasonable" levels of mean), but you likely realize that anyone has the rights and abilities to get in their little digs at any time of their own choosing. and it remains in your own boundaries regarding how to deal with those kinds of interactions with other forum members or even whether you choose to interact at all, whether the snipes/digs were warranted, purposeful, intentional or not, and I am not even saying that they were intentional beyond the extent that they were warranted in my perception to attempt to call a spade a spade..

I am not even claiming that the various assertions in my earlier post are objectively more valid than the assertions of other forum members, even though I suggested that the seeming motivations behind the substance of the posts/threads of both you and Nutildah were likely dumb, spiteful and perhaps even elitist in nature, and I implied that either of you (or both of you) getting others to take your nonsense seriously and/or to agree with the contents that the two of you were spewing likely shows that some some other forum members to be dummies, spiteful and/or elitist (or predisposed towards such) as well (which is my opinion, whether objectively true (provable) or not)..

Finally for this lil rant..  I am not even necessarily saying that sometimes it might not come in handy for peeps to engage in conduct that is dumb, spiteful and/or elitist (or to have relapses into those kinds of behaviors).. if that might have had been what you, nutildah and/or some other forum members were doing.  Perhaps? perhaps?




We're not bots, right?









right?









rrrriiiiiiiiiiggggggggghhhhhhhtttttt?

I am not complaining, and I am saying that the Bitcoin portion of my investments are up right around 26x based on my use of $1k as my ballpark way of estimating my cost basis per BTC.

So yeah, the BTC portion of the investment ends up bringing up everything, everything is not up 26x, and I am not even complaining about any of this - but I am suggesting that there are likely quite a few folks who have done better in life than me in terms of their investments.

Remember, I said that on average I got around 5.5% for all of the prior more than 20 years of investing prior to getting into bitcoin investment did not really even get to that 5.5% level of returns until right around 2.5 and maybe even close to 3 years after I started in bitcoin, so let me give you some kinds of examples of mistakes, so if you consider that I brought my average cost per BTC down from $1,200 when I first started, and then it got down to about $570 per BTC in late 2014 or early 2015, and since the BTC price stayed pretty low through the whole of 2015, I am pretty sure that my average costs per BTC had gotten down to below $500 per BTC..

So, you can see that if I would have kept doing good and not making mistakes, then my average cost per BTC should have had gone down instead of up, and I am a bit reluctant to get into too many details in regards to how it went up so much besides some hacking SIMs swapping incident and then some having money on some exchanges that got shut down. such as BTC-e.. and there were a few other mistakes like that contributing to my cost per BTC going up, and yeah, I did not have any money in FTX, or any of those other ones Voyager, Celsius, Blockfi, 3AC, Tera Luna, GBTC, or Gemini's yield branch.  So, yeah it could have been worse, and some lessons are learned along the way, and some of the lessons are petty kinds of lessons.

Probably some of the reasons for my somewhat mediocre returns in my more than 20 years investing prior to bitcoin had to do with my choices of safety in several of my investments and my unwillingness to take too many risks, so even when i got into bitcoin, I still thought that I was taking reasonable risks, even though so many folks told me that they thought that I was crazy (some of that was contemporaneously in 2014, 2015, 2016 and some of that was after the fact (several years later)


In recent times, I have been admitting to having at least 0.63 BTC, but in the future, I might have to change the amount of my admission.

So, yes, you are correct that the actual amount makes a difference in terms of some of the ambitions that someone has, but other things also make a difference in terms of considering how large of a BTC stash that we consider that we are going to need in order to support ourselves in terms of our expected standard of living and how we might start to draw upon our BTC stash in full or to supplement other cashflows that we might have.

So if we might feel that we need $3,333 per month in passive income, then we might need to have $1 million of net worth, and sure that networth could be in a variety of different asset classes, and I was considering creating a thread about those kinds of cashing out concerns, but I was thinking about using 21 BTC as the starting amount, and so there might be questions about how much you might be able to spend if you have 21 BTC, and there are various formulas that you could have that would potentially include spending the budgeted amount that might ONLY be between around $1k and $1,500 per month based on current formula considerations, but if the BTC price goes up then the amount that could be spent would likely go up, and there could be some replenishing of the supply or there could be some months in which you might choose to not draw a passive income from those BTC funds.


I will put that BTC talk thread that you linked on my list of threads to look at... sometimes I have too many "threads to look at," and I end up changing priorities or sometimes removing some of them from my list... it depends on where I am at.


I would not exactly consider myself as being privileged because there also was not very much emphasis on the needs to go to college, so I did not end up going to college until I was already in my early 20s.. so without getting into too many details, I was largely referring to an employer that provided a basic kind of personal finances class for all employees, and I doubt that it was even very advanced but part of the way that the employer was able to provide such a class was because the company teaching the course.. maybe it was half a day or maybe it was a couple of half days spread over two weeks - was because they were trying to sell financial products and financial advising, but part of their lure into the company to get to teach the course to employees was they would teach several topics of general financial applicability and responsibility.

I remember the course because it motivated me to keep track of my cashflow and my expenses and also to put aside right around 10% of all incoming cashflow (prior to expenses).

By the way, my getting into bitcoin ended up putting quite a few different perspective on my own personal financial management but also in terms of attempting to compare various asset classes and even the role of money in society and bitcoin's relationship to some of the history of money and the history of how assets are used to store value and in areas that I had not previously considered.


It's not guaranteed, but there is a kind of hope and a seemingly pretty solid hedge against other kinds of problems with asset classes and the manipulation of money and including that there could be some desperate battles coming from the status quo elite (and rich.. and using/abusing their powers through the arms of governments).


Ultimately, you probably are able to learn because you are both in a place for learning and you are attempting to put your learnings into practice, and surely you realize that you are going to make some mistakes along the way, but there are likely ways to both hedge the mistakes and to lessen the likely impacts of mistakes once they happen.

Another thing that you may well likely find is that you may well to share some of your learnings with people you know in the real world, and some of them will seem to be receptive to what you are saying, but it may well be a lot harder to actually convince them to take action because each of us likely has to come to bitcoin at our own pace, and surely I have never really shied away from trying to help people in their bitcoin journey.. including in the real world, but sometimes it can become very frustrating including being careful NOT to get sucked into situations in which you are taking responsibility over BTC's price movements that may or may not go as expected.. either in the short term or the longer term, even though it seems to be a great place to have some kind of investment and to make sure not to be on zero, which currently is the case for the vast majority of the world's population.


FTFY

Fuck shitcoins.

Memorizing, as a back up, sounds scary, even if it might not be the ONLY place that the wallet is kept - even though I could appreciate that memorizing (and writing down) could come in handy when crossing over a boarder because it may well be a short time before it is going to be fed back into some kind of a wallet device.

long term memorizing as a back up could also be problematic in terms of someone hypnotizing you, to the extent that any of us believe that hypnotism is real.


Sure.. there are some kinds of electronic saving that is more reliable than others, and for shorter time frames, none of them would necessarily be bad, but I think in these kinds of inheritance cases we are talking about some kind of a longer term storage.. and/or at least having potentials for longer term, even though the circumstances regarding how long some keys might be stored prior to the heirs trying to access them is likely going to have quite a bit of variance, even if future deceased bitcoin holder might well be checking and verifying access to the electronic devices 1-3 times per year.. depending on level of analness.


That's a bit harsh.

But, hey you are entitled to your own opinion, even if you might be bitter about a "few" things.

 

I suppose in spite of my trying to be funny, you are making some valid points regarding some of the disproportionate inequalities that come from incumbent rich folks... yet I have my doubts that the solution should go as far as you are suggesting in terms of causing inabilities for the passing down of wealth, and there likely are some families who are ONLY able to get ahead in some kind of a degree based on the efforts of several generations building and building and building (at least the responsible heirs, which the may well be some of those kinds of folks in this world, even if you are suggesting that they are a minority and the inheritance system is mostly a tool of the rich and powerful who don't deserve it).

By the way, remember that 80x trade that you made?

Are you merely bitter because you already spent all of your "profits" from that?

Inquiring minds want to know.


Pray tell!!!!!   

I just received a couple of merits on this post (thanks EFS), which thereby drew my attention to this chart that I created that presumed buying $100 week of BTC and the BTC price going up on average about 12% per year.. which is surely a bit ambitious of a BTC price trajectory.. but I do not necessarily consider it to be unrealistic, surely on a longer timeline, we might end up getting some gravitation of the price towards that ambitious price trajectory.

Surely we can see from BTC's actual price performance, we have not had any kind of 12% per year, and if we would have had been accumulating BTC at $100 per week until now, we would have invested $11,300, and we would have had stacked about 0.4145 bitcoin, which, in accordance with my chart projections, brings us nearly to the quantity of BTC that would have had been expected to be stacked by mid-2025.. , and there should not be any reason to be unhappy about those kinds of results.. including that at today's BTC prices we would be quite a bit ahead of schedule.. maybe even two years worth of BTC ahead of schedule, and right around break even in regards to the amount that we put into our whole investment into BTC that would have had started July 1, 2021.

I wonder how OP is doing?  Have you been able to keep up your BTC buys?

Whenever forum members abandon these kinds of threads, there should be a bit of a presumption that they had not continued with their earlier plan and they likely fucked some things up, but hey, part of the question might be whether any of us is able to outperform a DCA approach. .in terms of ongoingly and consistently stacking sats without getting blown out of our position and while being able to keep up with enough psychological determination to be able to remain persistent... and ONLY OP would know about his personal circumstances, including sometimes our cashflows might go up or they might go down, but if we have goals to stack sats, then likely we would like to continue to figure out ways to continue to stack and maybe increase our stacking and not making up any excuses regarding why we stopped, and "if we would have" blah blah blah.. ..

Consistency and persistency and adapting to the environment remains important in when we may well have bitcoin stacking ambitions, which seems to have had been the case when OP started this thread.

The source article does not seem to specify its methodology including how it is measuring bitcoin wallets.. and who gives any shits about crypto wallets.. .. but like you mentioned Wiwo, it seems a bit difficult to measure transfers that are taking place within private wallets, and then maybe there would be some kind of reflection in the cashing out of the money (or the purchasing of goods/services) after the money were to come from outside of El Salvador and then reaching its destination person.

So if they are measuring bitcoin wallets from various kinds of central services and then saying that it only went up to 1% or 2% of the total that is being transferred, even though such capacities have been added to those third party wallets.  It may well be interesting to figure out if there might be some kind of a methodology that might be in the ballpark of accurate rather than mere spinning of the topic in order to suggest that nothing is happening in El Salvador in respects to bitcoin. 

To proclaim that even though bitcoin has come into the El Salvador space, Salvadoreans are going on with their lives and choosing dollars and they are not using the bitcoin services or getting involved in bitcoin... which seems to be a questionable assertion to suggest that a government's announcement and actions to liberalize abilities to use bitcoin is not resulting in any kind of significant/meaningful increased bitcoin usage.

Anyone should be able to recognize and/or appreciate a certain level of parody and fun, but I doubt that the parody and fun is quite as obvious as Bob is suggesting it to be - when there is a certain kind of tinge to his own inabilities to control his own emotions and sending a kind of spiteful message while at the same time saying.. "I am only joking; I am only joking."  

Surely trolls do that and it can be quite annoying even though sometimes even the trolls end up either making decently good points or the responses to the trolls end up contributing valuable substantive information..


It's likely that I had nearly 10 posts responding to these kinds of questions of smerit sending in the WO thread, and the above response remains largely representative of my thoughts on the topic, for anyone who might be able to interpret what I am saying through the attempt at poking fun at the seeming nonsense positions in which some forum members seem to be overly concerned about the smerit sending and/or merit receiving practices in the WO thread.


Even you might realize, Poker Player, that I am not quite capable of ONLY writing a couple of paragraphs... even though surely this topic (including the related thread that you link) may well ONLY be worthy of a couple of paragraphs, at most.

Initially, when I saw this thread and the other one, I thought that maybe I should just let them play out for a while before chiming in or even before sending any smerits regarding points that were being made in the thread(s) - especially, since several times I had already given my opinions regarding the topic, and so this particular "parody" thread likely made the topic more targeted towards me, and probably ended up saying what Nutildah was wanting to say, but a bit more directly..  hahahahaha....  and in the end, to really show how dumb both of the threads are.. even though each thread has gotten quite a few responses (even some decent and informative responses) and even quite a few votes (relatively speaking) in terms of actually showing that members are willing to entertain and support such dumb, ill-thought out and even spiteful ideas/proposals (even though they are framed as if they were "valid concerns" that deserve something less than a bat slappening).

There actually were some decently good posts in each of these two threads, especially when LoyceV attempted to put some numbers on the matter, and I recall that earlier on, I was pretty low on those charts showing the meriting of banned members, and it seems that recently my numbers had gone up quite a bit.. and perhaps some of my practices did change in the last year or so in regards to my thinking that it is a good idea to attempt to send more smerits to newbies and/or low ranking members.

I do recall some places/instances where I would send smerits to seemingly disingenuine posts (posters) who had brought up good points on whatever topic was the thread (whether WO thread and/or other forum threads).. for example, in the art thread, the pumpkin carving thread and the pizza thread, I sent smerits to almost any member who made a submission in those contests that seemed to be their own original work (or the work of their family member), even if it might have been a pizza made with noodles and corn or some other ridiculous idea of what would be considered a pizza.

So yeah, it may be the case that I had increased some of my sending smerits to banned members through my more recent practices of attempting to send more smerits to newbie accounts (or relatively newbie accounts), and even identifying AI submissions is not always easy to accomplish, even though it might seem apparent after the fact.

For example, I recall sending two or three smerits to a member who ended up being an AI, and I was starting to get my suspicions after the second or third merit that I sent, but then once a member pointed out the AI angle of that particular member (who likely ended up getting banned), then it became more apparent.. and the same could end up being true for the identification of plagiarized content, and beyond maybe common-sensical practices, so far there have been no requirements that merit source members need to be able to identify plagiarized content (or employ advanced plagiarism/Ai detection tools to figure out what is plagiarized or what is AI generated) when sometimes, it is might not be very obvious.

---

Even though in the other thread, LoyceV pointed out a few of theymos's guidances in regards to smerit sending, including that he would like to see that there are attempts by merit sources to merit objectively better quality posts, yet many of us likely realize that there are a lot of subjective aspects involved in regards to putting smerit sending into practice, and rules about supposed objective quality of posts are not as high as members seem to want to assert them as being or should that the rules should be turning smerit senders into objective standard robots.. which really would not be very practical..

And at the same time, theymos has the ability to remove any merit source member or to reduce or to increase the quantity of their source merits at any time and for any reason or for no reason at all.

Surely, there is quite a bit of discretion in terms of whether to send any smerits or how much due diligence that any merit source member exercises prior to sending smerits, and many times, I had suggested that there might be some benefits to the forum to rotate merit sources and/or to retain more merit source members - yet many folks likely realize that if such an increase in merit source management tactics were to be carried out, either theymos is going to have to do a lot more work or he is going to have to find a member who he believes would be a good fit in terms of carrying out some kind of merit czar type duties - which surely has its own trade-offs and even potential for drama... but not necessarily something that would not end up working out in the end, after members got used to some of the changes and theymos and such merit czar to come were to work out their own merit czar performance expectations.

---

Maybe this part of my response should go in the other thread, but with regards to the WO thread specifically, we have already known that since the beginning of the merit source system (in early 2018), the WO thread disproportionately spread the most smerits in comparison to any other forum thread, so nutildah's assertion that the WO thread has gone downhill in the last year seems to NOT be supported by actual reality, even though it is quite likely that the word has gotten out that there are a bunch of softies (or potential softies) (perhaps including but not limited to yours truly) in the WO thread who will send smerits to almost any crap bitcoin-related post that is submitted therein.  

By the way, prior to early 2018, I rarely ventured outside of the WO thread, but I have not really stopped reading many of the WO thread posts - even though sometimes I may or may not understand them prior to determining whether to send an Smerit.. which is similar to other threads in which I send smerits.  

I do not claim to understand or even agree with everything that I send smerits to whether in the WO thread or in other forum threads, so the extent to which I engage in any due diligence beyond searching my memory banks about the poster (which may or may not be good) may well vary depending on a variety of factors including how much time I feel that I have available to research into any matter or other physical things that might be going on in the real world of my lil selfie or other things that I might be attempting to do at the time that I decide whether to send an smerit and whether to look further into the matter before hitting the "send" button.


There may be some truth in that.  I did feel that I needed to read this whole thread first, and then that I also needed to read that other thread too..., but I am not going to claim that I understood anything that was posted in this thread or in that other thread.

Edit:  Whether regarding this thread or the other one, I forgot to mention there seem to be various elitism aspects in regards to the raising of these "concerns," but also several of the proposed solutions have similar elitism angles.. and sure, LoyceV's bringing up theymos's posts in the other thread on the topic of theymos's regrets about his earlier implementation of newbie jail goes to the same sentiment in respects to how ideas about the supposed problem and the various proposed solutions are out of touch with the right and with the better ways of going forward with concerns that might exist or develop in respect to alleged abuses on the forum (perhaps related to merit abuses and perhaps related to the WO thread and perhaps not as much as these abuses are described as "problems")...

Again at least, these seem to be proposed remedies in search of a problem, but likely worse these seem to be proposed remedies that would end up creating more problems than they resolve.

How is anyone going to know that? 

Sure, in my chart, I have attempted to show how the 200-week moving average might continue to go up based on how it has historically gone up while at the same time causing the slope to be less steep with the passage of time.

There are no guarantees, and even my slope might be incorrect, including that the 200-week moving average might end up going negative rather than having a positive slope.

My chart shows the 200-week moving average in mid to late 2027 to be between $110k and $126k.

Sure many of us are ok with lump summing into BTC, especially if you have the money available, but usually I tend to recommend to divide your current amount (which is the $10k in your example) into three parts, and then also to figure out your cashflow, but the way I am suggesting might not perform as well as a strict lump summing into BTC with the $10k at these prices. 

Each of us has to decide for ourselves in regards to our approach, yet I have frequently found it good for me psychologically to have money to be able to buy on dips, but surely anyone might be kicking themselves if they have mostly ended up under investing because of holding money for dips that do not end up happening.


Those conservative scenarios seem very conservative on the downside in terms of a $20k that does not move for any of the timeframes listed.


Even if you have good intentions and you are "admiring" early adopters rather than "envying" them, it still is a distraction to what should be important to you in terms of figuring out your own details and your own strategies, like I have largely already attempted to overview those ideas.   


Sure, you can see what bitcoin has been able to do, and you have seen that some people developed bitcoin commitment earlier than other people, yet to me, it does not seems to be anything to spend very much time thinking about.. but instead thinking about your own situation and what you are going to do.. including that we likely realize that past performance does not guarantee future results, and each of us has to surely account for that..  and one of the things that I have been mentioning is that 10 years ago, someone could have likely put $10 per week into bitcoin and they would be in a pretty decent position right now, and even if anyone right now puts $100 or even $1,000 per week into bitcoin, they are not going to catch up to the earlier BTC accumulator, presuming that the earlier BTC accumulator does not screw up too much.

But it might NOT be practical for people to be able to invest $1k per week into bitcoin for 10 years, and maybe the best that they can do is $100 per week, which may well be better than doing $10 per week right now.. but not better than $10 per week 10 years ago... but who would have known?  We cannot go back, we can just attempt to figure out our position size and our approach based on our own circumstances, and we might well realize (and recognize) that now days it would be better to invest $100 per week, rather than $10 per week - based on where bitcoin is at now as compared to 10 years ago and also based on the dollar likely being less than half the value (maybe even less than 1/3rd) that it had 10 years ago.


Well, sure we cannot have confidence regarding how fast adoption will occur and whether it will continue to occur, even though there ongoingly seems to be a lot of evidence of continued BTC adoption.. and maybe not as fast as some people would like,... but maybe the faster adoption periods come during the BTC price rises that may or may not happen, and then we get into periods in which the rise in adoption is slower or even imperceptible because some folks are getting out while others are getting in, and maybe it can take a bit of time for the bitcoin adoption levels to get back to where it was during the hype period.. but still the overall trajectory seems to continue to be upwards. 


That sounds good.

It does not seem fair to characterize the low adoption of bitcoin transfers into El Salvador as a complete failure, even though those numbers do show a pretty small usage of bitcoin to transfer value from other countries.

Another dumbie with bad advice and advice that is contrary to what people should be doing, even if they believe it is convenient... Yeah, it's convenient until all of your coins end up disappearing and you cannot figure out why.

Refer to my earlier post in which I respond to the same advice given by Roseline492.

That's too bad that you don't have any BTC and/or you have not figured out some kind of a BTC accumulation strategy that might work for your situation.  I doubt that you are going to end up being correct, but surely you have a right to your own ways of living, including choosing whether to invest in various assets and if so, then how much, or how to go about it.

None-the-less you are in a better position to judge your own circumstances, even though a kind of default position of mine is to suggest that everyone should attempt to own some BTC and to get off zero.. but then how much to invest after that might be a matter of degree.. and prior to 2020, I was largely recommending to either get BTC to be between 1% and 10% of your investment portfolio or alternatively to consider that investing in BTC would be between 1% and 10% of your overall income.

Since sometime during 2020 and ever since, I changed my suggestion to be between 1% and 25%, and of course, its up to you the amount that you might choose within that range or if you choose some approach that might be outside of that range.

You have likely created another security hole if you save your data on a computer and you print it out..including the printer may save images, too... so at least two points of failure.

Making photo copies may surely have some issues too.. but sure each of us has to balance between convenience and considering how BIG of a security hole that we might have created through the ways that we are creating our digital documents and the extent to which harddrives on printers matter in terms of information that could end up getting found 10 or 20 years down the road, and then your data (bitcoin private keys) ends up getting compromised.

I think my post speaks for itself, so anyone can choose to go down the envy path, even though to me it does not seem to be a healthy mindset because the punchline still concerns each of us attempting to figure out specifically what we are going to try to do, which may well result in ongoingly buying BTC and also trying to continue to learn (and to get better) along the way to the extent to which we choose to engage in BTC accumulation in light of whether we believe that we have enough BTC or not (based on our own circumstances), and no one is really going to be able to specifically advise how another should approach their BTC accumulation.. since each of us is in a better position to assess and to act upon our own particulars..

Do you have enough BTC?

If so, then great.

If not, then are you going to accumulate more or just let whatever you have to ride until some later date in which you reassess your own particular circumstances and whether buying BTC is warranted.

Even though you did not frame your question very well, you seem to be asking whether the BTC price is going to break out of the "don't wake me up zone," which coiuld be argued to be $25k to $35k, and which way will it break out and will such break up happen by the end of this year.

Part of the reason your framing seems to suck is because largely we have already gone down to pretty damned close to $25k.. which was as low as $25,350 so far.  So yeah we are close to the bottom of the range which does give more credibility to the possibility of breaking downward rather than UP, but I am still not sure if the chances are too much greater than 60% for the breaking down rather than either returning into the range or ending up breaking up out of the range to the upside.. but surely if the BTC price does not break down and instead goes somewhere back into the middle of the "don't wake me up" arena, then wouldn't that seem like a BIG SO FUCKING WHAT?

So probably the more interesting scenario would be to break below $25k, but again, I am not even sure if I might be being too optimistic when I end up assigning up to 60% odds for such.

It seems pretty doubtful that we would stay in this DWMU range until the end of the year without breaking one direction or another, but sure we still ONLY have right about 4 months left in the year.. so it would not be out of the question to stay in this DWMU range until the end of the year.

I am quite likely not going to be holding my breath for any of this, even though I do see why some people are getting bored, and maybe they feel that they already accumulated enough BTC in these prices, which maybe it could be the case, but being more than $1k below the 200-week moving average (at $27,498 right now) does not seem to be a very healthy place in order to have a further break downwardly.. but hey, breaking down (if it is possible) might end up shaking some weak hands, if it does not end up recking some bearwhale twats prior to their ability to be able to buy back the coins that they had ended up selling in such desires to try to get the price of cornz to go downity rather than uppity or sideways.

Your ideas of a long-term seems to hardly even in the ballpark of contemplating "long term" 

You seem to be considering long term in terms of "whenever the BTC price bounces and gives you an amount of profits that you feel sufficiently good enough." 

which is more of a traders mindset rather than the kind of long term that we are talking about in this thread in terms of 1, 2, 3 or even more cycles... so careful if you are fucking around too much with figuring out when to sell your BTC within one cycle and then getting stuck into a bitter position because you ended up neither accumulating enough BTC and also selling way too many BTC at too low of prices.


I would suggest that you try not to be envious of what other people did, and sure maybe you made some mistakes in terms of your having had a sufficient amount of information to guide you in terms of buying bitcoin, but you failed to sufficiently and adequately act.

you cannot turn back the clock, and you can ONLY go forward based on the information that you currently have ih your head (and hopefully in your ongoing studying the BTC space that also includes ongoingly actively buying BTC in a way that is sufficiently aggressive for you, but not so aggressive that you end up losing more coins than you would have had wished to have lost.


I continue to make the point that you are currently an early adopter.  Sure there might have had been some BTC price appreciation that has caused you to not be able to get as many coins than if you had entered 3, 5 or 7 years ago. .(or even longer), but there still is likely way less than 1% of actual bitcoin adoption and even a lot of the businesses/financial institutions and governments are not likely accumulating as many BTC as they should be doing at these prices...

so figure out what you are going to do to attempt to make your own BTC/investment portfolio as strong as you are able to accomplish within your own financial and mental circumstances.. and sure your skill set and your abilities to learn (or maybe difficulties in terms of having enough time to spend on BTC investing and/or balancing of your accumulation strategies).

yeah, you might never be able to get a whole BTC, but do you really need a whole BTC?

Look at my fuck you status chart again... and think about it.. you may well not even need to get to $2million in networth in order to be in a much better position because you ended up accumulating 0.5 BTC by 2035... or whatever might be within your financial and/or mental abilities (and of course actions) to accomplish.


Of course.  Bitcoin likely has around 1,000x the value of gold, but it is ONLY about 1/20th of the price of gold, and sure it could take 100 or 200 years for BTC to reach its fair market value relative to gold, but if we have some clues about bitcoin, we likely realize that its price pressures are likely ongoingly in the UPpity direction.. even if we cannot really exactly figure out if some kind of timeline is going to work out exactly for our own hopefully ongoing BTC accumulation strategies.


Yep.. and most people (maybe 99% or so) do not even know this information that you just described.. but even though you likely know something that other people do not, does not necessarily mean that your investment is actually going to end up paying off, so hopefully, you figure out an ongoing BTC position size that works for you in your likely ongoing many years of accumulating BTC.. maybe you will look back in 10 years and conclude that you were not bullish enough.. or maybe you will look back and see that you screwed things up because you were overly bullish and you had not figured out ways to adequately/sufficiently secure whatever coins that you end up being able to accumulate along the way.

You make some good points red4slash, but I still feel like I need to repeat some of my concerns about the notebook being a potential single point of failure, which may be lessened by maintaining more than one notebook with the same contents, and yeah, I know that is likely a pain in the ass, but you could also have three with one off site that you do not update as much, but you would still have some active and latest updates in the two main ones.

Your point about the electronic device being problematic does en up getting somewhat addressed by having the backup keys.. to make it less vulnerable if it were handed down by itself without the seeds or whatever technology that wallet is using for its backups.


Holy shit this recommendation is dumb, irresponsible and contrary to best (or even basically better) security practices..

In other words:  

1) Don't be taking screen shots of your private keys..

and worse yet

2) don't send such private keys (or back up seeds or anything else related to the private keys) electronically to someone who you want to have such information.  

There are better ways/pracitces.

That conduct might not end up 100% causing you to quickly lose your coins, but it is really not a good practice and quite a few historical bitcoiners have been separated from their coins based on various forms of trying to digitize their private key information and using various unsecure methods of transmitting such private keys, similar to your dumb recommendation.  

Have I called you dumb enough?  hahahahaha maybe? maybe not.

You need to try to come up with something better, and surely it is not a very good idea to be recommending bad practices and there are at least two bad practices that you highlighted as your recommendation.

By the way, if you or anyone else has engaged in this kind of behavior historically (either one of them.. you don't necessarily need both in order for you to have had made your private keys overly vulnerable) , and if you still have the coins in such wallet(s), you most likely need to move those coins relatively quickly (if not even before finishing reading this post) to new wallets and don't make the same two mistakes again in terms of your securing the private keys of your new wallet that you make.

Take the steps that I suggest and/or you will thank me later, if you do not figure out some other potentially silly way to lose your coins by the employment of similar kinds of really bad practices/recommendations...

You might even want to delete that part of your post and hope that no one actually ends up following some variation of what you are recommending.

For sure, when you are in BTC accumulation phase which could last right around 1 year (that is if you already have money that you are just reallocating from other sources which is a kind of variation of what happened with me) or maybe it takes 10 to 20 years to get through the BTC accumulation phase, even though surely those guys who had been accumulating $100 worth of BTC per week for the past 10 years, may well be starting to feel that they are getting up to a BTC amount that comforts them (since they would have had invested around $52k, and they would have around 54 BTC), and sure many of those BTC would have ended up accumulating more on the front end, and current purchases of $100 per week might not seem to be adding up to very much in terms of adding to the BTC portfolio.. and also $100 today does not feel like $100 in 2013, since it probably has reduced way more in purchasing power, maybe ONLY 1/4 of the purchasing power if that.. especially in the past few years.

I guess I am largely in agreement that it is likely going to feel like the first several years of BTC accumulation is going to have more sacrifices and needs for a tighter budget, but if you stay consistent then maybe you end up building up your reserves so that you don't ever feel that you are going to run out of money or that it is not that stressful even if you are not able to buy more BTC on dips because you had run out of money.. because also the longer that you are into BTC accumulation, the more you likely are going to start to feel that you have accumulated enough, even if you have not quit yet gotten to the place that you consider to be your "sweet spot."...

Even from right around May 2022 and through close to the end of 2022, I personally was feeling like I was running out of money to buy more BTC, even though surely I have enough BTC, but if the BTC price keeps dipping way beyond expectations, there may well be points in that journey in which you may well be taking from other resources to plug into your buy on dips BTC funds.


The various mistakes are still mistakes because sometimes there may end up being losses of somewhere between 10% and 40% of whatever is then the holdings, and sometimes when a person loses that much due to some mistakes, there can be feelings of wanting to give up or feelings of futility or feelings something being wrong with the overall strategies.  There is also no guarantees that recoveries will be made from the mistakes, even if there might be considerable attempts to learn from the mistakes and to fix the approach/strategies in order that the mistakes might either be avoided or perhaps to become less impactful if they end up happening again.  

Actually there are sometimes that the same or even similar mistakes are made several times, and then it might take a bit of time to realize that you are largely making some variation of the same mistake that you had made before.  


Sure.  Some people do seem to take longer to learn from mistakes, and sometimes I speak with people who are similar ages to me, and I find out that they are just beginning to make mistakes that i was making 10-20 years ago.. kind of like "rookie mistakes," and sometimes each of us has to make some variation of the mistakes ourselves in order to figure out some way to train ourselves not to be going down the path that is likely going to end up in a mistake (loss) that is greater than what we are wanting to bear.


It is good if you are able to get some things out of my posts and figure out ways to apply them to your own situation, and at the same time, for sure each of us has to find our own path and also to attempt to tailor our approach in such a way that we are making sure that it works sufficiently well for wherever we might be in life .. accounting for each of our own individual financial and psychological factors, which I had recently numbered them in this earlier post in this thread.


Even though there is a symbiotic effect between the two, and sometimes the miners are following future price that they are speculating on, as you mentioned, hashpower is still following price, not the other way around.

I have made mistakes along the way, too, and there are surely folks who have had way better price performance than me.

I have approximated that my more than 20 years of investing prior to bitcoin (prior to late 2013) on average was only earning about 5.5% per year (there were up years and down years but the average was around 5.5%), so those were pretty standard kinds of investments and standard kinds of returns.. maybe even mediocre.. but accounting for various mistakes contained therein.

When I added bitcoin to the mix of the investments, the performance went way up, but it did not go up until right around 3 to 3.5 years later, if we account for either late 2016 or maybe into 2017... and so part of the resulting positive is that even once my BTC price performance got to a pretty decent size to outpace all of my other investments, it really did not drop below $3,124 in late 2018.. so even the lowest of corrections kept the BTC holdings in great profits.

So even if you were to attempt to plug numbers in here, you do not necessarily get to stellar performance, and of course, BTC prices went up 20x from the 2018 lows but also corrected back down to right around 5x.. and perhaps now we are around 8x to 9x from the 2018 low.. but I like to characterize my own overall BTC holdings in terms of having a cost per BTC right around $1k per BTC, and therefore it is easier to estimate the BTC part to be around 26x up, overall.


I think that I have told a variation of the story that when I first left home  and I was 17/18 years old, and I had a pretty limited cashflow, but I learned right from the start to always attempt to put away at least 10%, and I was not always very good in terms of where I put the 10% (or the amount as it added up) but over the years, it did continue to build and build and build, even though I made several mistakes along the way, and there were times when my income increased quite a bit, so I was already used to living on a tight budget, and so when my income went up, I was frequently putting aside much higher levels, like 25% to 40%.. but I had many many years of ONLY doing 10% and it still added up... just did not have any bitcoin like investments.. .and maybe I was too dumb to identify the bitcoin-like investments and I tried to stick with safer investments, and maybe I would not have had been ready for bitcoin until after more than 20 years of already investing and having had built up my investments based on mediocre performance.


Yep.  That is a good point.  We can ONLY start from where we are at, and frequently, I will say to people to get the fuck started, but frequently, people have troubles just organizing their finances enough and in such a way that they know how much they are able to invest, whether that might be 10% of their income or some other amount that better suits their situation... but hopefully they can get it to some level of minimum aggressiveness, such as 10%.. otherwise it becomes harder to make progress since we already know that investing 10% takes around 10 years just to get to 1 year's income invested. and hopefully that amount (and its interest/yield) is at least keeping up with cost of living increases (inflation of prices - deflation of the currency.. hard to get ahead, for sure).