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2521  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is NOT a decentralize currency on: June 27, 2012, 01:35:39 PM
When a person or a group of person are in control of the value, IT IS CENTRALIZE. And no matter how you will call it, the problem still remain.

And, again, the protocol wasn't design to address that concern.  The decentralization of bitcoin doesn't have to do with value.  There is no way to address the concern your raising.  Want to know why?  Because it has to do with the economics of supply and demand and that some people simply have enough wealth to influence the value of any financial instrument.  There is no solution to this "problem".
2522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Infographic: why the sky is the limit on bitcoin prices on: June 26, 2012, 10:00:30 PM
I love trying to figure out how much capital could eventually move into bitcoin. Here's an infographic I made to try to describe the potential:



The infographic is part of a larger presentation on the potential of bitcoin which I made.

Don't post shit like that or I might turn more bullish.
2523  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: June 26, 2012, 06:23:00 PM
Anyone drawn any interesting conclusions from this thread?

The price moves left to right instead of up and down like I thought.

Mind blown!
2524  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: June 26, 2012, 06:22:23 PM
I actually regret joining the dog pile to the extent I have in the past, and my sympathy for Amir and friends' position has grown over the weeks.  My main frustration was the lack of communication.  When I finally received an email response, even though it was extremely brief, it was enough.  Lots of us aren't asking for much in the way of communication.  So, that's my main criticism - that there's been an real lack of communication.  Most level headed people are willing to be patient as long as they don't get the sense that they're being completely ignored.  Though, on the other hand, I understand that the backlog and workload is pretty heavy and that time responding to emails and posting on the forum is time away from processing claims.  But then, perhaps a post with a bit more detail about all that would have helped.  In any event, my gratitude to the work Amir and the rest of them have been doing.  I have no doubt this is stressful and difficult, and you're getting a lot of shit in return.   Undecided
2525  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Difficulty post ASIC? on: June 26, 2012, 01:41:56 PM
If everything is acurate then they will have chip with base potencial of 3.5GH/s @ ~2W. With little "overclocking" it will be 4GH/s @2.5W. 10 of these will be in Single= 40GH/s and 250 in MiniRig=1TH/s. I doubt they design 3 different chips. How many they can realese to wild in one week? 100 for sure. Lets assume 500 per month = 2TH/s. So difficulty will double in summer next year... With cheap electricity GPU miners don't have to worry for at least one year.
Thats of course speculation, that don't include others ASIC manufacturers.
My guess is that price of bitcoin will drop signifficantly becuse they will be "made" cheaply, very cheaply.

This. 
2526  Economy / Speculation / Re: The bubble has popped, slow decline to $3 on the way on: June 25, 2012, 09:56:22 PM
Below $2 is not happening, period.

I don't see how that can be discounted with ASIC mining coming online and the reward drop.  I still think those are going to put major downward pressure on the price.
2527  Economy / Speculation / Re: The bubble has popped, slow decline to $3 on the way on: June 25, 2012, 08:27:54 PM
There is a possibility of a further correction because my theory is that the BFL orders are actually causing downward pressure. This is because it seems most early ASIC buyers are buying with Bitcoin savings and then we have Bitpay that is selling everything and even announcing that they are selling. On the long run this really doesn't mean anything but for the short term there is some downward pressure.

I'm not sure how much that downward pressure will matter though, there is an underlying upward momentum that should be resuming its course sooner rather than later.

I'm not seeing it.  We're probably in for another multi-month slump, at best.
2528  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: June 25, 2012, 03:43:58 PM
Just got this message this morning:

Quote
Hello, Your account is in the queue and waiting to be reviewed.

It's amazing how helpful that brief email is.
2529  Economy / Speculation / Re: The bubble has popped, slow decline to $3 on the way on: June 25, 2012, 01:30:55 PM
Almost half of all the bitcoins on the MtGox order book are now placed between the current price and $7.00.
2530  Economy / Speculation / Re: The bubble has popped, slow decline to $3 on the way on: June 25, 2012, 05:02:18 AM
What bubble?

2531  Economy / Speculation / Re: Capital set in motion by BFL ASIC pre-order on: June 25, 2012, 02:47:20 AM
First up, then down.

The only question is: How strong will this effect be?

And also: What time lies between the two movements?

The opposing flows are largely concurrent. With pre-orders, capital will be tied up for at least a few months, reducing available supply in the market. At the same time, blocks are still being generated. I don't see major movement overall.

I'm more focused on after ASIC devices are delivered. As they come online, they will likely produce a short-term increase in available supply and a rush to pay off initial hardware costs, dropping Bitcoin prices for a period.

+1  I've been saying this for a long time now.  It'll probably take a year or so after the block reward change before there's a distinct break from the current price level, and I think with the flood of ASICs on the horizon we could see the price move back down toward $2 over the next year, maybe even lower.  The only way I see that forecast upset is if there's a massive influx of new money and users, and I just don't see that happening for a while.
2532  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If god is a mathmatical formula, is it safe to say that Bitcoin is backed by god on: June 25, 2012, 02:41:25 AM
I'd just like to note that under no circumstances will I ever advertise... "Bitcoin is backed by god" lol

Fck you OP! as a religious man, i will pray for you everynight
 Roll Eyes
lol



I was speculating how god isnt a person and really is a consistant force that we humans like to call math. I happed to stumble upon this page http://www.superiching.com/moreongod.htm and the more it got me thinking about bitcoins formula.

Thoughts? Ideas? Crazy comments?

Ok, sure.  If God is math, and bitcoin is backed by math, then bitcoin is backed by God.  Just as if a bachelor is an unmarried man, and John is an unmarried man, then John is a bachelor.  Your argument is certainly valid, but it's definitely not sound; at least not until you offer a compelling argument why anyone ought to believe that God is math, which, BTW, is going to entail you making an argument for why people ought to believe there is such a thing as God*.  Good luck.

*This is assuming that you really are trying to get to the conclusion that bitcoin is backed by God.



Looking at my argument, It might be better to say math is a universal representation of god...

So how do you think the argument should go from this new premise that math is a universal representation of god to the conclusion that bitcoin is backed by god?
2533  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: June 24, 2012, 08:22:13 PM
I emailed bitcoinica.reimburse@gmail.com several days ago asking for a status update. No response yet. Please let me know what further action you require. You have my passport on file, and you know who I am.

Good luck.  I've emailed them a bunch of times over the past month(s) at every address they've posted in this thread, including several emails to the email address you just mentioned, and I haven't gotten back a single response.  All I want to know is the status of my claim and whether any additional information is needed from me.  Others have reported getting responses back, and that only worries me more because it makes me wonder if there's some reason I'm being completely ignored.
2534  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Just wanna give CampBX a thumbs-up on: June 24, 2012, 06:19:15 PM
Nice to hear.  I think I'll make my next bitoin purchase through CampBX.
2535  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If god is a mathmatical formula, is it safe to say that Bitcoin is backed by god on: June 24, 2012, 06:01:57 PM
I was speculating how god isnt a person and really is a consistant force that we humans like to call math. I happed to stumble upon this page http://www.superiching.com/moreongod.htm and the more it got me thinking about bitcoins formula.

Thoughts? Ideas? Crazy comments?

Ok, sure.  If God is math, and bitcoin is backed by math, then bitcoin is backed by God.  Just as if a bachelor is an unmarried man, and John is an unmarried man, then John is a bachelor.  Your argument is certainly valid, but it's definitely not sound; at least not until you offer a compelling argument why anyone ought to believe that God is math, which, BTW, is going to entail you making an argument for why people ought to believe there is such a thing as God*.  Good luck.

*This is assuming that you really are trying to get to the conclusion that bitcoin is backed by God.


2536  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is NOT a decentralize currency on: June 24, 2012, 05:44:51 PM
How a currency that approx 50% is held by a few people can be stated as a decentralize money? These people together can influence the value of bitcoin with their spending. In a way, they are in control of it's value and saying that it is fully decentralize is only a lie. The more the bitcoin will be valuable, the more they will be able to be in control. Unproportional holding of a currency is never good for the majority.

Bitcoin's decentralization was never intended to apply to how fairly and evenly its units were destributed.  Rather, bitcoin's decentralization is that transfers happen without a single service provider maintaining and verifying a ledger of transactions and in that it can be made practically impossible for third parties to gain control over users' units of exchange.  The value of a bitcoin is a function of market forces and the protocol simply doesn't have anything say about it.  Frankly, I think you've completely misunderstood the meaning of 'decentralized' in this context.
2537  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: June 24, 2012, 03:07:44 PM
ninjarobot, thanks.

I think some of the biggest payments are being made soon (possibly today). It's just we wanted to be extra careful that there was no trivial oversights. For instance we could afford to mistakenly pay out $20 but not $30,000.

Evidence that people send does help, but it is not definitive. We use the evidence you send to try to find matches for you in our records. But if we don't have a record of it, then digital evidence is easily faked and does not mean much.

The trouble I'm having is that for lack of any specific communication over the course of weeks, despite several emails sent, I'm unable to assess whether I need to offer any more evidence of any kind.  I don't know if information I've offered is verified, not verified, if I'm untrusted for some reason, or not.  I just don't know what my status is.  That's what I, and I'm sure others, would like to know.
2538  Economy / Speculation / Re: End of year price prediction on: June 24, 2012, 03:03:39 PM
we'll be lucky to have it at $10 at year's end

We'll be lucky to see the price above $6.80 between now and the end of the year.  I think my prediction of single digit prices for the next year is solidly on track.
2539  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [Payout Updates] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: June 24, 2012, 01:19:22 PM
Cut them some slack guys. It is Sunday in UK.

Nobody works then ... they are not robots.

I work everyday.

About the payouts: working on it. Not much to add except going slowly through accounts to verify the low hanging fruit. There are some accounts marked accurate but they aren't immediately paid because the balance is so large.It could be a devastating blow if a large amount is paid erroneously, so those accounts require more checking.


Is there anything special I need to include in my emails to you guys.  I've emailed several times over the weeks and haven't gotten a response back.  Do I need a special subject line or something?
2540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: June 24, 2012, 01:16:46 PM
MtGox is back!

so i just got back from watching some fireworks.
glad to see were still on track  Wink

On, we're on track all right.
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