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2561  Economy / Speculation / Re: I know what some of you are thinking. on: July 23, 2013, 12:07:51 AM
If you are willing to wait for it you can probably get just about any exchange rate you like. 
now you took away the punchline everyone was set up for.
there is one drawback, though. eventually Bitcoin settles in its niche and something else continues to innovate. then it would converge to a non-zero stable value, maybe even driven by - fundamentals.

Well, Bitcoin ceases to be supply-inelastic when there is something that can substitute for it. I am sure that many of the alt-coin creators have considered this. But as an ecosystem for trust-free services is fleshed out it forms the kind of tide that lifts all boats. I am sure Bitcoin will have many effective competitors, but the rotation to cryptos will be tremendous.

Um, I can't really see altcoins as a Bitcoin substitute. Their valuation is a subset of Bitcoin they function merly as a Bitcoin derivative.
2562  Economy / Speculation / Re: I know what some of you are thinking. on: July 22, 2013, 11:51:12 PM
I wonder what the Winklevoss are waiting for.  How old are they? Grin
2563  Economy / Speculation / Re: I know what some of you are thinking. on: July 22, 2013, 11:43:39 PM
A very wealthy trader can afford to make a bigger bet on where the price of Bitcoin will be, farther out, than a trader with less deep pockets.

Let that sink in.


Can and must.
2564  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LTC on MTGox on: July 22, 2013, 11:39:57 PM
You guys do still remember that the announcement was made on April 1st, don't you?
2565  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 10:23:50 PM
I said half of it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold
Quote
The world consumption of new gold produced is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.

I guess wikipedia should check their sources ha?
Btw investment is 40%, I think that includes "pure gold rings"  Roll Eyes


That's consumption of new gold coming out of the ground. I'm talking percentage of market capitalization. 5-10% is about right.

I would say that ratio remained more or less constant over time. So it should be equal to market capitalisation.
Or are you including gold that hasn't even been mined yet?

I wasn't.

I have no data though, making my argumentation weaker. But most of the worlds gold lies in the form of bars in huge vaults doesn't it? Do you have any figures?

Well you said it.
There are various figures the problem is most of it is distorted depending on where you look. That is actually one of the few advantages Bitcoin has over Gold, you know how much there is of it.
To be honest I don't find this debate very fruitful, at least you give back respectful answers but I was kind of dragged into this and don't really care that much about gold.
My point concerned the similarity with bitcoin, or lack there of which I say is closer correlated with Rhodium, which you can see in another thread.

2566  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 10:12:16 PM
I said half of it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold
Quote
The world consumption of new gold produced is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.

I guess wikipedia should check their sources ha?
Btw investment is 40%, I think that includes "pure gold rings"  Roll Eyes


That's consumption of new gold coming out of the ground. I'm talking percentage of market capitalization. 5-10% is about right.

I would say that ratio remained more or less constant over time. So it should be equal to market capitalisation.
Or are you including gold that hasn't even been mined yet?
2567  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 09:42:17 PM
2568  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 09:33:23 PM
I said half of it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold
Quote
The world consumption of new gold produced is about 50% in jewelry, 40% in investments, and 10% in industry.

I guess wikipedia should check their sources ha?
Btw investment is 40%, I think that includes "pure gold rings"  Roll Eyes
2569  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 09:23:08 PM
Most of the jewelry is sold in Asia. The jewelry is bought as a store of value. It doesn't matter if it's bought in a rectangle brick or a necklace..it's still bought for it's intended purpose.

It's bought for bling, that implies value but it's not bought as an investment. It's bought to be used.
Since jewelery isn't even made up of pure gold and is alloyed it's made to be used, a investor looking for a store of value in terms of gold wouldn't care if it's made up of pure gold, even better the alloying wouldn't have to be payed, pure gold bullion is the most popular form of use as investment.
So it does matter if you buy a a bar or coin versus a ring or necklace.
Most popular where? Gold here is 23k (96.5%) whether it's a bar or jewelry. jewelry carries a VERY small premium and may be used as "bling" but it is a store of value. 23k and 22k is prevalent in Asia as jewelry and it is a store of value. if I throw a stone in Bangkok I can hit a dozen gold shops..they're not selling alloyed bling to the rich..they're buying and selling a store of value to the masses at a pretty tight spread at the market price. Shit 14k jewelry with a 800% markup doesn't sell in most of the world.
.
That's bullshit. Metric Investment bars are 99.9 and investment bullion coins are 99.9. Oh and comex 400oz bars are also pure gold.
Again, look it up.

I don't about your story about 23k jewelery but I suspect you just pulled that up out of your ass.
2570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash will bottom at $30, you heard it HERE first. on: July 22, 2013, 09:15:01 PM
Bitcoin dropped 100% in 2011 during the gox hack.

We gonna be goxed soon.
2571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 09:10:12 PM
Most of the jewelry is sold in Asia. The jewelry is bought as a store of value. It doesn't matter if it's bought in a rectangle brick or a necklace..it's still bought for it's intended purpose.

It's bought for bling, that implies value but it's not bought as an investment. It's bought to be used.
Since jewelery isn't even made up of pure gold and is alloyed it's made to be used, a investor looking for a store of value in terms of gold wouldn't care if it's made up of pure gold, even better the alloying wouldn't have to be payed, pure gold bullion is the most popular form of use as investment.
So it does matter if you buy a a bar or coin versus a ring or necklace.

There even is a difference in terms of investment only vs monetary use with gold. Only alloyed coins are made for circulation.
Gold is soo different from bitcoin.
2572  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 08:50:13 PM
Bitcoin is almost half the market cap of rhodium right now, which is ridiculously overvalued. It's the only "monetary" metal with comparable volatility.
Comparisons with gold or silver just don't work out, since their inherent value is closely tied to our everyday lives while rhodium is not and neither is bitcoin.
Care to explain how golds value is closely tied to our everyday lives and bitcoin is more closely related to Rhodium?

You realize rhodium is mainly used in catalytic converters and golds main use is a store of value, right?

Half of all gold mined is used in jewelery, that's not really as a store of value since the jewelery is worth multiple times that of it's metal content.
 About every electronic device contains a small amount of Gold. Catalytic converters don't use rhodium any more since there are plenty of other catalysts which are just as good. The closest use is protective coating of metal surfaces which uses layers a few atoms thick, oh and in certain types of nuclear reactors. Certainly not comparable to gold or silver.




I believe 5-10% of the market cap of gold is from use in jewelry.

Look it up.
2573  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 08:47:02 PM
Bitcoin is almost half the market cap of rhodium right now, which is ridiculously overvalued. It's the only "monetary" metal with comparable volatility.
Comparisons with gold or silver just don't work out, since their inherent value is closely tied to our everyday lives while rhodium is not and neither is bitcoin.
Care to explain how golds value is closely tied to our everyday lives and bitcoin is more closely related to Rhodium?

You realize rhodium is mainly used in catalytic converters and golds main use is a store of value, right?

Half of all gold mined is used in jewelery, that's not really as a store of value since the jewelery is worth multiple times that of it's metal content.
 About every electronic device contains a small amount of Gold. Catalytic converters don't use rhodium any more since there are plenty of other catalysts which are just as good. The closest use is protective coating of metal surfaces which uses layers a few atoms thick, oh and in certain types of nuclear reactors. Certainly not comparable to gold or silver.


Bitcoins utility is sending anonymous payments in the black market and website donations. Both rhodium and bitcoin exhibit wild hype cycles and car salesmen personalities trying to pump & dump.
2574  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 08:25:50 PM
Bitcoin is almost half the market cap of rhodium right now, which is ridiculously overvalued. It's the only "monetary" metal with comparable volatility.
Comparisons with gold or silver just don't work out, since their inherent value is closely tied to our everyday lives while rhodium is not and neither is bitcoin.
2575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 06:28:44 PM
Must - resist - short - selling.
2576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 05:56:11 PM
You guys gonna buy the $92 wall or not?
2577  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LTC on MTGox on: July 22, 2013, 05:34:50 PM
Me neither but with no market movement lately a 3% one suddenly can look dramatic.
2578  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LTC on MTGox on: July 22, 2013, 05:20:54 PM
Lets just say LTC will be around longer than mtgox ok? Grin
2579  Economy / Speculation / Re: MTGOX 24Hr Volume in Japan on: July 22, 2013, 03:01:42 PM
Watching mtgox fade a way will be even more painful to watch than the grind down into the 40s.

Actually most people (including me) think it's good if Mtgox loses market share.
A grind down to $40 would be kinda painful to watch, but I would wait it out anyway and/or try to aquire more coins *shrug*

It all depends on whenever you believe their explanation, I don't really like to make up reasons of why they having problems, but their "overloading their bank" makes no sense.
2580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 22, 2013, 02:47:13 PM
Becoming a bear actually requires deliberation, disillusionment and time. It's never a panic reaction.

Only sheep panic sell, and bears really like sheep  Wink
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