Mike's final "Fuck You!!!" to Bitcoin: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3tftas/mike_hearn_now_working_for_r3cv_blockchain/cx5wwwu"The current Bitcoin system, I mean the system we actually use today with the block chain, isn't going to change the world at all due to the 1mb limit.
Unless the community changes direction very clearly (which in practice will require getting rid of Bitcoin Core completely), then "the system" will simply wither on the vine whilst the community waits for Lightning, or whatever solution they're being sold. But Lightning bears no resemblance to the Bitcoin I signed up to work on 5 years ago. It's an entirely different design which looks very much like the existing model of banking - nodes that hold people's money (i.e. may end up regulated), route it between them, no support for smart contracts, byzantine complexity due to being built on a 'legacy' layer that wasn't designed for it, occasional settlement between parties etc. Assuming it even works at all.
So if I have a choice between helping the existing financial system build something better than what they have today that resembles Bitcoin, or helping the Bitcoin community build something worse than what they have today that resembles banking, then I may as well go where the users are and work with the banks."I believe that he misspoke>>>>>>> ........"then I may as well go where the users are money is and work with the banks." Out of courtesy, I fixed it for him to say what he really meant to say.... which his choice may not be a bad thing for him on a personal financial level, and he may also possibly gain some interesting and useful experiences through his future endeavors. |
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There is a different dynamic for down versus up, and part of the reason for the different dynamics likely has to do with differing levels of ease to move BTC in comparison to moving fiat (and who may have access to mechanisms to move fiat quickly - surely, these days almost anyone has access to mechanisms to move BTC really quickly), which considerably changes the dynamics for each of two binary possible price directions.
The entities moving the market are not the entities who have problems with moving BTC/fiat onto exchanges quickly. There's little evidence that much money is actually moving in & out of exchanges. The fiat you sell (for BTC) is the fiat you buy (with BTC). It's simply a question of timing. Well you may not have to really move very much fiat if you buy BTC in one location and sell BTC on an exchange (mostly thinking about Stamp). And, really how do you know about money moving off and onto various exchanges, is there some public way of verifying such beyond attempting to infer such info from the order books and/or trade volume? No, there isn't. At best, the only thing to be inferred from volume is the sum spent on making the volume look like it does. Not even that, in reality. There's one thing that hodlers say that I agree with: you will lose money if you trade (unless you're a 'market maker'). The reason legacy real trading is regulated is to prevent exactly what's going on on BTC exchanges now. Financial fraud develops & advances, just like any other field. Regulators manage to plug one loophole, manipulators figure out another, and the game goes on. Now imagine this wealth of experience, this boatload of scams that got invented and burnt down IRL over *centuries*, and, suddenly ...unregulated market!!1! Everything old is new again, you don't even have to figure out new ways to do shit -- just recycle. Hard to get this across, but another way to look at it is imagine some bacterial strain that becomes more and more antibiotic-resistant as new antibiotics are introduced, and then... stop taking antibiotics. Good luck. What the fuck are you talking about? You are the one who made the claim suggesting that there was NO real evidence of money moving in and out of exchanges, and I asked you, more or less, how you would know... then you agree that you do not know and subsequently babble on in some side and distracting irrelevant tangent. In other words, you do not appear to be really attempting any substantive discussion regarding any of your off-the-wall assertions. |
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There is a different dynamic for down versus up, and part of the reason for the different dynamics likely has to do with differing levels of ease to move BTC in comparison to moving fiat (and who may have access to mechanisms to move fiat quickly - surely, these days almost anyone has access to mechanisms to move BTC really quickly), which considerably changes the dynamics for each of two binary possible price directions.
The entities moving the market are not the entities who have problems with moving BTC/fiat onto exchanges quickly. There's little evidence that much money is actually moving in & out of exchanges. The fiat you sell (for BTC) is the fiat you buy (with BTC). It's simply a question of timing. Well you may not have to really move very much fiat if you buy BTC in one location and sell BTC on an exchange (mostly thinking about Stamp). And, really how do you know about money moving off and onto various exchanges, is there some public way of verifying such beyond attempting to infer such info from the order books and/or trade volume? |
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319 . oh look someone is "killing" bitcoin  Is bitcoin price supposed to do that? Are we still rallying in a rally? yes. yes. Maybe there is a short-term question about whether the price is going to test $310 again or even go down to test $300...? It appears to be heading up at the moment, on fairly decent volume levels---- but we see no major dumps recently, like 500 BTC or 1k dumps. We cannot expect any answer from a whale, so speculate..... In the next 8 hours, I give it about a 65% chance to go up to $329 and about a 25% chance to go down to $314... my guess is we won't hit >315 without another really good piece of fud most likely bearish news to come next would be EU's plan to "ban bitcoin" in some form or another. but i think the meeting is over and they we're very vague as to their plan of action. http://www.trust.org/item/20151120152558-mdmbwI think we're likely to see then arrest/fine a few high rolling localbitcoin traders operating without any AML/KYC. not much more... Sometimes I wonder a little bit how the bear whales do it ... I mean dump coins and test whether there is an ability to move the price down because I am sure that they dump and dump and dump, and pretty soon, the dump gives, and viola, down we go... getting a 1 to 5% drop in price can be very valuable, and maybe not so difficult to achieve if the coins are dumped strategically and maybe can get some others to follow so the one whale doesn't have to do all the work (not that I buy into any one whale theories, even though sometimes one whale could possibly get the ball rolling). if you have >100KBTC this is easy, just start grabbing as much liquidity as you can at wtv price range and pretty soon the market will drop, i guess best way is to start of slow, and when you unload enough slowly start dumping until market can't hold that price anymore... even in a bull market with >100KBTC its not very hard. but who has 100,000coin??? and even if you did have 100K, will you actually get to sell 50K at 500 no way! you won't get to sell 10K BTC to many poeple selling, same problem trying to buy back XX,000BTC... Selling to buy back lower is risky business but for 2 years now this trick has paid off easily, no more, its bull market now, we're going to be in the 300's for a while, at one point we'll head up 500+ at which point bears will probably back off and we'll be at 800 in no time. everyone always imagines there 1 invisible hand manipulating the market, but i don't buy it, bitcoin is kind of a big deal, there must be 100's of Big BTC and USD whales and 100's of thousands of traders, and another 100's of thousands of newbie / jr. bitcoienrs. adding up to ~1mill poeple. when this market moves its because 100,000's of people said "sell" that week, not because 1 guy sold shitloads of bitcoin. now who has said sell this week and doesn't meant it? I believe that if you can play off of some of the movements of others, then 10k coins may be sufficient to really direct in many regards - though of course having more BTC and approaching the 100k arena may come in handy for greater abilities to really dominate |
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319 . oh look someone is "killing" bitcoin Is bitcoin price supposed to do that? Are we still rallying in a rally? yes. yes. Maybe there is a short-term question about whether the price is going to test $310 again or even go down to test $300...? It appears to be heading up at the moment, on fairly decent volume levels---- but we see no major dumps recently, like 500 BTC or 1k dumps. We cannot expect any answer from a whale, so speculate..... In the next 8 hours, I give it about a 65% chance to go up to $329 and about a 25% chance to go down to $314... my guess is we won't hit >315 without another really good piece of fud most likely bearish news to come next would be EU's plan to "ban bitcoin" in some form or another. but i think the meeting is over and they we're very vague as to their plan of action. http://www.trust.org/item/20151120152558-mdmbwI think we're likely to see then arrest/fine a few high rolling localbitcoin traders operating without any AML/KYC. not much more... Sometimes I wonder a little bit how the bear whales do it ... I mean dump coins and test whether there is an ability to move the price down because I am sure that they dump and dump and dump, and pretty soon, the dump gives, and viola, down we go... getting a 1 to 5% drop in price can be very valuable, and maybe not so difficult to achieve if the coins are dumped strategically and maybe can get some others to follow so the one whale doesn't have to do all the work (not that I buy into any one whale theories, even though sometimes one whale could possibly get the ball rolling). Bear whales do it the same way as bull whales do it. Think of trading in terms of "bucket A = Currency A; bucket B = Currency B." Bitcoin bull = fiat bear, fiat bull = Bitcoin bear. Dumping BTC = Pumping USD, etc., etc. No difference, yin and yang. I don't think so. There is a different dynamic for down versus up, and part of the reason for the different dynamics likely has to do with differing levels of ease to move BTC in comparison to moving fiat (and who may have access to mechanisms to move fiat quickly - surely, these days almost anyone has access to mechanisms to move BTC really quickly), which considerably changes the dynamics for each of two binary possible price directions. |
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319 . oh look someone is "killing" bitcoin Is bitcoin price supposed to do that? Are we still rallying in a rally? yes. yes. Maybe there is a short-term question about whether the price is going to test $310 again or even go down to test $300...? It appears to be heading up at the moment, on fairly decent volume levels---- but we see no major dumps recently, like 500 BTC or 1k dumps. We cannot expect any answer from a whale, so speculate..... In the next 8 hours, I give it about a 65% chance to go up to $329 and about a 25% chance to go down to $314... my guess is we won't hit >315 without another really good piece of fud most likely bearish news to come next would be EU's plan to "ban bitcoin" in some form or another. but i think the meeting is over and they we're very vague as to their plan of action. http://www.trust.org/item/20151120152558-mdmbwI think we're likely to see then arrest/fine a few high rolling localbitcoin traders operating without any AML/KYC. not much more... Sometimes I wonder a little bit how the bear whales do it ... I mean dump coins and test whether there is an ability to move the price down because I am sure that they dump and dump and dump, and pretty soon, the dump gives, and viola, down we go... getting a 1 to 5% drop in price can be very valuable, and maybe not so difficult to achieve if the coins are dumped strategically and maybe can get some others to follow so the one whale doesn't have to do all the work (not that I buy into any one whale theories, even though sometimes one whale could possibly get the ball rolling). |
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319 . oh look someone is "killing" bitcoin Is bitcoin price supposed to do that? Are we still rallying in a rally? yes. yes. Maybe there is a short-term question about whether the price is going to test $310 again or even go down to test $300...? It appears to be heading up at the moment, on fairly decent volume levels---- but we see no major dumps recently, like 500 BTC or 1k dumps. We cannot expect any answer from a whale, so speculate..... In the next 8 hours, I give it about a 65% chance to go up to $329 and about a 25% chance to go down to $314... |
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in a bear market good news holds price or temporally bumps it up ( we saw plenty of that past 2 years ) in a bull market bad news.............. now are we in a bear market or a bull market? we'll were about to find out!  I've heard that before. This morning, wasn't it? ... and the rocket went the other way, no? |
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I shorted, so it's bound to go up.
Despite reasonable volume the price change now is not that big. I did not short for a big price change. It seems there is quite a solid foundation for the price as it is, give or take 15 dollars or so.
Also the rampent FUD (edit: and other BS) surely means BTC will go up again pretty soon.
I agree with you that there is a general pressure, at the moment for prices to go up, but I cannot really agree with you that the current price is in any way stable. At the moment, there is so much volume that should be a fairly strong indicator that it is taking quite a bit of effort to keep prices in the current range $320 to 340-ish. Maybe volume will settle down, and this will become a stable range, but currently it seems quite far from stable and there remains considerable potential for explosive movements in either direction... with upwards seeming to have a slight edge, no? Hard to say, have the same feeling, am trying to close my short prematurely with a tiny profit... It's just so unpredictable... Looking forward to the day that the market cap is so big that the whales have less influence... Even though it has been nearly 2 years that I have been buying bitcoin, only in the past couple of months have I attempted any trading. Accordingly my trades have been relatively small, and I have created staggered trades up and down the various prices. Therefore, my portfolio will increase for either direction. Recently, I have been attempting to mostly try to trade the bigger swings - and depending on previous trades, that decision to trade bigger swings may leave me out of the trading game for fairly extended periods of time... for a while a recent trading range of mine was buying at about below $307 and selling at about above $360.... and yep, that left me out for a while... However, more recently I have narrowed those ranges based on more recent market performance... and whether my next action is buying or selling will thereafter affect my next set up.... but my ongoing goal remains to be to continue to attempt to accumulate BTC... to the extent practical and to my comfort level. |
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I shorted, so it's bound to go up.
Despite reasonable volume the price change now is not that big. I did not short for a big price change. It seems there is quite a solid foundation for the price as it is, give or take 15 dollars or so.
Also the rampent FUD (edit: and other BS) surely means BTC will go up again pretty soon.
I agree with you that there is a general pressure, at the moment for prices to go up, but I cannot really agree with you that the current price is in any way stable. At the moment, there is so much volume that should be a fairly strong indicator that it is taking quite a bit of effort to keep prices in the current range $320 to 340-ish. Maybe volume will settle down, and this will become a stable range, but currently it seems quite far from stable and there remains considerable potential for explosive movements in either direction... with upwards seeming to have a slight edge, no? |
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looks like we are getting a bit of price action (movement) now.
I am not sure what to predict, but maybe there is going to be another test of $320.
I remain a bit uncertain about whether there is enough bear sentiment or bear firepower to bring prices below $318 in this round.
What you guys think? We gonna even make it to $320, this time around? $324.94, the current low on stamp, as aI type.
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Surprising amount of newbie accounts posting statist bullshit and terror fear mongering lately.
its NLP i have received private msg asking me to delete his shit, i assure you there is way too much shit for me to delete. and deleting his shit seems to incentives him to produce more shit. best thing to do is ignore his most popular accounts and skip over any newbie post. Surey ignoring them is good, but deleting accounts and posts seem important towards maintaining some meaningful dialogue in the thread because if you do not get rid of some of them while near newbie status, then it becomes more confusing for people to determine which ones to ignore and they proliferate like rabbits and get worse and worse and worse. Surely it takes some work to delete posts and accounts, but seems best and probably worth the efforts. If you need some help, I can assist. let me know. |
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They are doing anything but manipulate the direction of the price in these bitstamp volume spikes. I think it's probably nothing more than getting them nearer the top of the global volume stat pages. I also doubt it's bitstamp doing it, more likely a trader with enough volume to have near 0 or 0 trading fees, doing the job of returning the favor.
*All just strong personal impression, not investment advice, not accusation of wrong-doing.
Well, it is already public that Bitstamp provides staggered trading fees, that is lower fees for higher volume. I doubt that they are merely applying the lower fees in order to achieve placement on a volume chart, but anyhow they are already big, and have been big for a while. It is within reasonable speculation that they may be providing some trading fees lower than the officially published rates. There is nothing really amazing about that. As long as they charge some fees, they would be in a real decent position to make a lot of money, even with very low trading fees, if they are attracting big pocket players and they are also providing sufficient volume that more big players are incentivized to come to bitstamp to trade because they can quickly trade larger and larger amounts of BTC with little to no slippage |
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Why does "large of volume" mean anything, when a nice chunk of that is obvious wash trades?
At least they could adjust the algo to make it a little more convincing... like the chinese appear to be doing.
How can you be so convinced that the volume on Stamp is not real? There is a BTC price battle going on, no? And, such BTC price battle has been going on for nearly 14 weeks (specifically on Stamp - as the price leader), and more intensified in the past about 4 weeks, no? What's your evidence to the contrary? It's just my strong personal impression. Looking at the walls, looking at the action, round numbers, comparative volume before and after... You can believe it's just two hardened traders fighting it out, then giving up, the price about where it left off... if you want. I understand that several posters imply some kinds of battles between a few whales and even sometimes theories that involve the same whales buying and selling to themselves. I do not really buy those kinds of theories because i find them to be too simplistic and too conspiratorial, even though from time to time, some of that could be going on. For the most part, what I am suggesting (and "believing" in your words) is that there are several buyers and several sellers, sometimes they pile on or join in, but for the most part they are acting independently in an attempt to maximize their own value through their trades and attempting to predict and or influence the direction of the market. There is nothing really in what I said that should suggest that I buy into any of these concepts of a small number of actors. However, don't get me wrong. I do believe that some players have much more abilities than others to control and manipulate BTC's price direction - but that does not mean that I believe that they are always able to control the price direction or that some of the other indicators still apply, and that is that some of the increased volume is much organic and nature and signs that prices are more difficult to control, and could be subject to fairly violent outbursts in either direction at somewhat unexpected times (the times of outburst are more unknown by us regular small traders in comparison to some of the bigger players who may have better indications for when they may be running out of either coins or fiat). |
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Why does "large of volume" mean anything, when a nice chunk of that is obvious wash trades?
At least they could adjust the algo to make it a little more convincing... like the chinese appear to be doing.
How can you be so convinced that the volume on Stamp is not real? There is a BTC price battle going on, no? And, such BTC price battle has been going on for nearly 14 weeks (specifically on Stamp - as the price leader), and more intensified in the past about 4 weeks, no? What's your evidence to the contrary? Isn't Bitfinex the volume leader ? Sorry if my post was a little bit ambiguous. I am not talking about volume to be important in and of itself. I was referring to Bitstamp as the price leader (more or less), and it is the price leader mostly because it does not have leveraging and it has fees, and therefore, its volume is much more representative concerning the ongoing battle over price.... Accordingly, the volume increase on stamp over the past about 14 weeks has significance to my earlier points, no? |
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Why does "large of volume" mean anything, when a nice chunk of that is obvious wash trades?
At least they could adjust the algo to make it a little more convincing... like the chinese appear to be doing.
How can you be so convinced that the volume on Stamp is not real? There is a BTC price battle going on, no? And, such BTC price battle has been going on for nearly 14 weeks (specifically on Stamp - as the price leader), and more intensified in the past about 4 weeks, no? What's your evidence to the contrary? |
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I love this thread It never dies. But of more substance, I have to disagree with the "hodl" crowd in most instances. I have gotten to the point where trading BTC is how I make the bulk of my living, and you pretty much have to play that day by day. On the most recent spike, I made really good money, but I make decent money every day. Money sitting in a vault does no good. It's purpose is trade, and that is how you increase your holdings. Longer term, it's definitely a good play to have some BTC, dollars, diamonds, and etc. in storage, but not the bulk of it. Money in play, whatever form it's in, is where the profits are. And the losses, if we're to be honest, but carefully investing your assets will make you "wealthy elite" far quicker than waiting and hoping. Good for you that you have the skills to trade successfully. I guess many here doesn't have these abilities or the time and patience to learn it.Risk to lose shouldn't be underestimated.And that's the reason everyone should do what he can do best to increase his BTC amount. Your points are very valid, Denker. A blanketted recommendation suggesting that the only way to accomplish meaningful gains is to trade your BTC (or any other asset) is short-sighted and self-absorbed. Every person needs to assess his/her own financial circumstances to ascertain risk, distribution and likely continue to tweak in the event that the totality of the investments are in fairly infant stages. In this regard, building and hoarding BTC could be a very good strategy in light of the persons total distribution of investments, including considering the time horizon of the person. On the other hand, if a portfolio becomes fairly well-distributed, and it has segments, such as BTC, that have become very profitable, then it may be prudent to take some of those profits; however, there seems to be likely considerable utility to continue to build the BTC portfolio, based on the overall expected value of that particular asset, in comparison to other fiat based assets that a person may hold (or have). In this regard, it seems prudent to continue to dollar cost average invest into BTC and to increase the overall accumulation of BTC while it is under $1,000 per BTC. Surely, every person, while still accumulating, will need to decide for himself/herself, the extent to which s/he feels it is necessary to take some of the profits between $330 and $1,000.. and maybe even attempt trading and/or reinvesting - depending on the totality of the persons BTC holdings in comparison with other investments that s/he may have, etc. i think you strategy is good but can't your statement about accumulating btc until it hits $1,000 also be construed as short sited and maybe self absorbed. how can you pick a arbitrary limit to an investment strategy like cost averaging...for you 1,000 may seem like an upper limit...to others just a starting point. someone who is truly dollar averaging doesn't try to pick tops or bottoms...they just accumulate over time...at regular intervals. I may have misspoke a little bit, because I was not really trying to box in any exact formula for potentially getting rich on bitcoins because each formula will be somewhat dependent and hopefully tailored to the individuals overall circumstances. And, in that regard, there will certainly be individuals with a lot of philosophies including those who have no intention to invest any further into bitcoin, no matter what the price. Yet, to some extent, I believe that several readers of this thread assume that the price of BTC is increasing, yet there may be quite a lot of variance concerning whether individuals believe that they should continue to invest or to rest on the amount that they already invested. In that regard, even though was criticizing some of the points of Biomech, I agree with him that there is likely increased value to have an interactive plan with regard to bitcoin holdings, even though I was criticizing his apparent assessment that trading is the only way to really profit from bitcoin (and to put one's BTC investment to work). Maybe in the end, I agree with a lot of his points, except I have some difficulties with his apparent assertion that trading is good for everyone, when in fact some BTC investors may not be at that stage of their BTC investment, and they may never really be comfortable with the concept or practice of trading their BTC holdings. well stated....and for sure some of the biggest stakeholders don't trade at all (winklvoss's I don't think ever sell). and like you said its up to individual circumstance. what I find interesting is that the $1000 mark that was reached in 2013.... I thought was a manufactured number...produced by a bot trading on gox. So why do we hold that number in such high regard? I believe that $1,000 is just an easy reference point numerologically to round off. I don't hold $1,000 in any high regard either because in November/December 2013 from exchange to exchange, bitcoins were trading at a vast array of high levels above $1k, including $1,163 on Stamp, and northwards of $1,500 on Local bitcoins, and higher on various other exchanges. One thing that seems a bit special about the $1k price point concerns theories about whether BTC prices break that threshold or shoot past such price threshold. From the history of bitcoin price spikes and the breaking of previous ATHs, we have generally witnessed a considerable overshooting of the previous ATH... once the BTC price gets moving in the upward direction. Personally, I have the sense that this time around is not really going to be too much different from previous times.... even though there are more tools for shorting and more big money looking at it and more liquidation possibilities and trading platforms, etc. To me it seems that once the price gets moving into the upper 3 digits and breaks into the 4 digits territory, there seems to be a considerable likelihood that BTC prices are going to overshoot again and to go past the previous ATH. Nonetheless, we have several resistance points, and seeming a considerable distance between $334 and $999.99 before we get to 4 digits in BTC pricing.... Furthermore, in my view, it seems that the past nearly 2 years of a bear market and almost a year of the bears being able to hold BTC prices in the below $300 territory, could cause some kinds of violence in the upward price momentum, and it could be possible, that just moving past $500 again in prices could cause considerable piling on board with more fiat looking to buy BTC and less BTC looking to sell, which will merely cause BTC prices to go up very quickly and to again shoot past the $1k and above territory, possibly into the $3k to $5k territory, where people will again become more willing to sell than to buy. I don't really know either, and I am just speculating the best I can based on my watching the market and interacting myself with both buying and selling (and mostly attempting to accumulate more BTC through such buying and selling activities). I think your right about overshooting ATH.....that's a scenario that plays out often...kind of just happened with ltc. a spike like that would have btc likely around 1,500....but first prices would have to go thru that 1,000 level. When the time comes...does it blow past 1,000 or just slowly meander around it ...? There can be a little bit of both going on, where it doesn't really seem clear what the price is going to do; however, in retrospect, the charts seem to show that the price blows right past, and not in a small way (5% to 30%) but instead in a larger way 200% to 500%. Yes, the past doesn't exactly predict the future, so we can never really be sure - however, if we believe that there is a 5 or 10% chance that we are going to witness doubling or quadrupling or 10x current prices, then we should safely place our bets accordingly. I am not suggesting to take out a second mortgage; however, it could be a prudent idea to sock a decent amount of free capital into BTC and maybe even forestall a few life luxury lattes and put some of that money into btc instead.... also, maybe instead of going out to eat once or twice a week, eat at home for a while and put some of the savings into BTC. |
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337 - Dust off your moon boots gentlemen. It's happening LOL. No it isn't! Back to $325 for Bitcoin before any significant break. Dude! Stop trading btc in a tight range ...your gonna lose everything! trade it when it's volatile...hold when it's consolidating! Shorter the time frame the better the trader... I am holding BTC. But, when/if Bitcoin hits $325, I am going to take a small leveraged long, using some BTC as the collateral. I am going to do this, because I believe that Bitcoin needs to retrace a bit more of the correction from $500, and I want to get it in at a good price, incase I am wrong and I need to exit the trade.....If I am right, but I don't get my leveraged long entry point....then whatever...I am still holding Bitcoin. leverage is dangerous, but to each his own. Also, even though you are only one post, I would not describe with specificity publicly, exactly, what I am doing until maybe after I have closed the position... or maybe just refer to it a bit more vaguely... but hey, again, to each his own. |
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337 - Dust off your moon boots gentlemen. It's happening I was dusting off my moon/mars boots, and even polishing them up a bit, but then, it kinda seems like a false start, no? |
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all in b4 massive pump of all time.
Hm? not sure if I see it.  Keep watching  haahahahaha... I'm starting to see signs of it now..... |
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